Modeling stochastic innovation races

We consider a firm moving towards a stochastic final destination to be chosen from a discrete set after a decision period. The decision period itself may be deterministic or stochastic. We assume the firm can move at variable innovation (R&D) speed associated with a monotone nondecreasing variable cost, and it can also stop and move anywhere. There is a fixed cost per time unit “carried” by the firm as well, associated with keeping at the knowledge (technology) frontier. We investigate various types of the firm's optimal trajectory in the R&D race during the decision period. The model is adapted and applied to racing behaviour in the Japanese telecommunication industry.     

理解R&D投入回报之谜:引入不确定性、非线性和企业异质性

既有研究发现企业R&D投入的回报不高甚至为负,这与R&D投入对经济增长具有重要作用的直觉背道而驰.其原因在于传统以知识资本模型为基础的研究,其估计的是平均R&D投入回报,平滑掉了R&D投入回报的企业异质性.文章建立了结构估计模型正式处理了R&D投入回报的不确定性、非线性以及企业异质性.与既有结构模型的区别在于,文章在模型中考虑了溢价的企业异质性,并明确处理了影响企业需求的因素.研究结果表明:R&D投入的回报确实是不确定的和非线性的,从而具有十分明显的企业异质性;个别企业的R&D投入回报甚至可以高出平均回报数倍,这足以为企业提供很强的R&D投入激励.R&D投入回报的企业异质性是理解平均意义上R&D投入回报较低与宏观层面R&D投入对经济增长具有重要作用的现实并存的钥匙.因此,我们有充分的理由相信,R&D投入及由此带来的生产率改善,能够成为新常态下推动中国经济持续发展的主要力量.     

减税激励、研发操纵与研发绩效

张维迎和林毅夫就政府是否应该制定产业政策展开了激烈争论。与他们从较为宏观的视角分析不同,本文利用《高新技术企业认定管理办法》确立的公司研发投入占销售收入之比这一一刀切的微观认定门槛,研究公司是否会操纵研发投入以满足相关标准。研究发现,研发收入之比的分布在法规门槛附近不连续,这确认了公司研发操纵行为的存在。基于分布不连续特征定义的研发操纵公司获得了更多的税收优惠和政府补助。进一步地,研发操纵现象在民营企业、盈利企业以及位于税收征管力度较弱地区的企业中更为显著,且研发操纵公司的研发投入与公司未来发明专利申请、发明专利授权数量间的正相关关系更弱。研究表明,与政策制定者的初衷不同,研发激励政策会激励公司进行研发操纵,最终导致公司研发绩效下降。本文不仅为产业政策引发的激励扭曲效应提供了微观证据,还为更好地制定和执行高新技术企业认定政策提供了理论参考。     

Innovations,patent races and endogenous growth

This paper presents a model of innovations and endogenous economic growth with two main assumptions: first, the cost of searching for innovations differs across innovations, and second, innovations take time to find. The paper shows that given these two assumptions together, competition leads to patent races and to duplication of innovative activity. The paper then shows that duplication significantly reduces the effect of scale on growth. It also shows that competitive R&D creates too much research on easy innovations, and too little research on the difficult ones. Finally, the paper shows that risk sharing might increase duplication and reduce growth.     

Conspicuous consumption and generation replacement in a model of perpetual youth

This paper investigates household decisions in an overlapping generations model in which individual utility depends on a weighted average of consumption of one's peers. In contrast to representative agent economies, the consumption externality generally affects savings and growth rates. The effects critically depend on the rate at which labor productivity changes with age. For a high (low) rate, the externality lowers (raises) the steady state propensity to consume out of total wealth. The optimal allocation can be decentralized by a (reverse) unfunded social security system if the rate of labor productivity decline is high (low). In contrast to discrete time OLG models, the optimal steady state capital income tax is zero, in spite of the externality.     

研发存量、研发经费来源与知识生产效率

技术创新的原动力来源于知识生产,本文通过估计劳动和资本的存量来研究和比较知识生产效率,并比较政府的科技研发政策对知识生产产出的差异性影响。利用2001-2010年中国各省区市各类型专利技术申请数、资本存量、人力资本存量、研发经费来源数据进行GMM动态面板估计,分析研发各要素存量对知识产出弹性的作用,并比较研发经费来源对各类型专利技术申请量的影响,结果显示:研发人力资本存量和固定资本存量对知识产出存在显著性作用,其中研发人力资本存量的影响更大;以研发经费为主的政府支持政策对知识的产出作用也较为明显。     

Incremental R&D subsidies

An Incremental Incentive Scheme (IIS) encourages some activity by rewarding an agent for overachieving a base level determined by past performance but not penalizing underachievement. We examine an IIS R&D subsidy in a dynamic model due to Grossman and Shapiro (1986). We show that the firm's optimal R&D path either cycles around the no-subsidy path or follows a ratchet pattern of small increases in R&D relative to the no-subsidy path. A simple condition determines which type of behavior occurs. Furthermore, we show that an IIS may be an inefficient method of encouraging R&D compared to a flat-rate subsidy.We wish to thank Gene Grossman and two referees for helpful comments. All remaining errors are our own.     

R&D、R&D溢出、内生增长和内生收敛

根据强调知识与技术创新、知识与技术溢出重要性的当代内生增长理论,本文建立了一个将R&D和R&D溢出与资本积累之间、R&D和R&D溢出与总产出增长之间直接关联起来的动态模型.面板数据协整检验实证分析结果表明R&D和R&D溢出与资本积累之间、R&D和R&D溢出与总产出增长之间分别存在显著的正面长期协整关联.进一步的分析表明,R&D与资本积累之间、R&D与总产出增长之间分别存在显著的长期双向格兰杰因果关系.由此观知,R&D乃长期经济增长源泉之所在.另一方面,尽管资本积累或总产出增长并不格兰杰导致R&D溢出,证据表明R&D溢出格兰杰导致资本积累和总产出增长.这种由R&D溢出到资本积累和总产出增长的单向格兰杰因果关系意味着尽管知识与技术的跨国传播并非必然发生,其实为世界经济增长的重要动力.     

跨国研发网络中研发单元的角色演变——以华为公司为例

采用1999—2015年华为公司PCT专利数据,运用社会网络分析方法构建分阶段的跨国研发网络模型,考察研发单元在网络中所扮演的角色,并着重探究守门人角色的演变路径。分析结果表明:华为公司跨国研发网络内的研发单元各自扮演着不同角色,但尚未明显地涌现外部导向型研发单元;除不活跃研发单元外,守门人与内部导向型研发单元构成了跨国研发网络中的主体;研发单元守门人角色的形成主要遵循"不活跃单元-内部导向型-守门人"的路径。通过识别华为公司跨国研发网络中研发单元角色的演变路径,可为企业在研发国际化实践中制定知识获取策略提供经验借鉴。     

完善R&D激励机制方略

R&D具有明显的溢出效应,往往通过"知识溢出"和"市场溢出"而导致创新者的"利益溢出",严重损害创新者的应得利益,降低R＆D的积极性.为此,必须从不同层面对R＆D活动予以鼓励和支持,不断完善R＆D激励机制.     

R&D Efficiency Gains Due to Cooperation

A theoretical and widely-quoted finding is that levels of cooperative R&D exceed noncooperative R&D levels when technological spillovers are relatively large, while the opposite holds for relatively small technological spillovers. We qualify this result by showing that for relatively small technological spillovers the comparison is not driven by the extent of technological spillover, but by the increase in technological spillover due to cooperation in R&D. In particular, an agreement to cooperate in R&D always raises R&D efforts if the post-cooperative technological spillover rate is high enough.     

中国研发服务体系建设简论

建立完善的研发服务体系对建设创新型国家和创新型社会至关重要,应从产业组织的角度研究研发服务产业的发展规律及从提高产业竞争力的角度研究研发服务的资源配置要求.针对我国研发服务现状及存在的问题,应从培育技术研发主体、优先发展科技成果孵化体系、提高研发服务行业的竞争力等方面完善我国研发服务体系.     

研发活动的国际比较与借鉴

美国、日本等研发实力强的发达国家先后从政府的政策导向、企业发展途径及中介机构发挥的作用等几方面采取措施来促进研发活动,这可为我国实现技术跨越提供借鉴。     

Multistage R&D competition and patent policy

In this paper a model of multistage R&D patent policy is investigated. We study the impact of the duration of patent protection for intermediate products on R&D races when the discovery of the final product requires the accomplishment of an intermediate step. Using a multistage model where firms choose their levels of research investment at each stage, we find all subgame-perfect equilibria of the game. We also determine how competition affects a firm's level of research investment at different stages of the R&D competition.     

南非农业领域研发政策最新动向研究

本文对南非政府近期推出的最新农业领域研发政策进行了研究。在新政策中,南非改革了原有国家农业研发体系,设定了农业研发重点领域,并提出了新的研发资助机制。本文还对南非政府的新举动做了分析与思考,并提出相关建议。     

日本药品研发的现状及动向

日本制药企业的新药研发创新能力近年来进步明显,涌现了一批具有世界水平的新药研发与生产企业。目前,各大制药企业均投入巨额研发经费,提前进行研发布局,以求在未来市场需求大的医药领域取得重大新药创制的突破。对日本药品的生产及销售状况、新药研发的现状与发展动向以及日本制药企业的研发重点和战略布局进行研究,以了解日本药品研发产业整体的发展概况及发展趋势。     

The Social Value of Biodiversity for R&D

The value of genetic resources for use in research and development (R&D)activities has been the subject of a literature modelling the activity as onewhere individual firms engage in optimal search. Here we develop a moregeneralised framework in which genetic resources are used in R&D at thebase of an industry that addresses recurring problems of resistance, as inthe pharmaceutical or plant breeding industries. The R&D process is onein which firms are engaging in a continuing contest of innovation againsta background of both creative destruction (Schumpeterian competition) andadaptive destruction (natural selection and adaptation). This frameworkdemonstrates that the search model is conceptually inadequate because itfails to incorporate the important dynamic characteristics of biologicalphenomena. We then demonstrate the important differences between firm-based valuation of genetic resources and the social value of geneticresources for use in this contest of innovation. There are six externalitiesin private patent-based genetic resource valuation, and five of theseindicate that private valuations will under-estimate social values.     

R&D, patents and stock return volatility

Recent finance literature highlights the role of technological change in increasing firm specific (idiosyncratic) and aggregate stock return volatility, yet innovation data is not used in these analyses, leaving the direct relationship between innovation and stock return volatility untested. The paper investigates the relationship between volatility and innovation using firm level patent data. The analysis builds on the empirical work by Mazzucato (Rev Econ Dyn 5:318–345, 2002; J Evol Econ 13(5):491–512, 2003) where it is found that stock return volatility is highest during periods in the industry life-cycle when innovation is the most ‘radical’. In this paper we ask whether firms which invest more in innovation (more R&D and more patents) and/or which have more important innovations (patents with more citations) experience more volatility in their returns. Given that returns should in theory be higher, on average, for higher risk stocks, we also look at the effect of innovation on the level of returns. To take into account the competition between firms within industries, firm returns and volatility are measured relative to the industry average. We focus the analysis on firms in the pharmaceutical industry between 1974 and 1999. Results suggest that there is a positive and significant relationship between volatility, R&D intensity and the various patent related measures—especially when the innovation measures are filtered to distinguish the very innovative firms from the less innovate ones.