CYCLICAL SHOCKS IN A MODEL OF EQUILIBRIUM UNEMPLOYMENT

The paper shows a model which displays a procyclical movement of job creation as a rational expectations equilibrium.     

UNIQUENESS AND INDETERMINACY OF THE EQUILIBRIUM GROWTH PATH IN THE UZAWA‐LUCAS MODEL WITH SECTOR SPECIFIC EXTERNALITIES*

We introduce sector specific external effects of human capital on production in an otherwise Uzawa‐Lucas model of endogenous growth; and show that the problem of indeterminacy of the competitive equilibrium growth path does not exist even if the production function satisfies the increasing returns to scale at the social level.     

FINANCIAL INTEGRATION IN EAST ASIAN EQUITY MARKETS

Abstract.  This paper examines the degree of financial integration that exists in East Asian equity markets using the International Capital Asset Pricing Model methodology. We employ three market portfolios to test for integration: the weighted average equity index of all sample countries, the Japanese market index and the US market index. The study shows that the level of financial efficiency and the integration of sample countries is high and has improved significantly during 1991 to 2005, and they are more financially integrated within the region and with the Asian leading market (Japan) than with the world leading market (the USA).     

FINANCIAL CONDITIONS AND FISCAL PERFORMANCE IN EMERGING MARKETS

Various effects of rising integration of emerging markets into the global capital markets have been studied, yet not its potentially significant fiscal implications. This article argues that larger external financing implies a rising pass-through from external financial conditions to public finances. It contributes to the literature on financial globalization as well as to the one on measuring fiscal performance. It suggests a framework for analyzing the effects of external financial conditions on fiscal performance and applies it in two case studies to 40 emerging markets. The results suggest that ignoring financial conditions can entail misleading assessments of underlying fiscal performance. ( JEL F3, H5, H6)     

EQUILIBRIUM SELECTION IN THE YANO MODEL OF PRICE LEADERSHIP

Abstract. A number of studies have provided a theoretical explanation for the fact that the technologically superior firm becomes a price leader in a duopoly market for a homogeneous product. While previous studies show that the state in which the technologically superior firm becomes a price leader is a Nash equilibrium (superior leader equilibrium), they do not eliminate the possibility that the state in which the technologically inferior firm becomes a price leader is also a Nash equilibrium (inferior leader equilibrium). We demonstrate that an inferior leader equilibrium can be eliminated by the iterative elimination of weakly dominated strategies.     

CONSTRAINED EFFICIENT MARKETS FOR MANIPULATION ECONOMIES

We design a competitive market for exclusive contracts in large economies with observable types where trades are subject to postcontractual manipulations. We do not impose quantity restrictions at the trading stage—for example, incentive constraints on the consumption or production sets. We establish existence and constrained optimality of equilibrium. Our design can accommodate manipulations stemming from private information as well as from behavioral biases—for example, time inconsistency and false beliefs. We discuss the needed size and complexity of the commodity set.     

组合、套利和资本市场的均衡特征——对资本市场均衡“异化”现象的一种解释

无套利均衡是新古典主义理论在特定条件下所界定的市场均衡特征。考察卖空限制和借款约束行为对资本市场上的组合和套利行为的影响,并结合市场从非均衡向均衡的调整过程,定性考察不同行为假设之下资本市场均衡特征的变化,可以发现,资本市场均衡和套利机会之间的共存或排斥状态,直接受制于有关市场参与者的初始行为假设。在不同的行为假设之下,市场参与者的组合和套利行为具有不同的特征和不同的影响。     

中国资本账户开放进程中跨境证券投资对国内金融市场的影响*

随着中国资本项目开放进程的推进,跨境证券投资对国内金融市场的冲击日益增强。在此背景下,本文首先通过构建考虑了资本市场收益率以及有管理浮动汇率制度的IS LM BP模型对跨境证券投资与中国国内金融市场的相互影响机理进行了理论探究,并基于中国2005年7月—2016年8月的月度数据,运用马尔科夫区制转移向量自回归模型对中国资本账户开放进程中跨境证券投资与人民币汇率、股票市场收益率、短期利率的联动关系进行了实证分析。研究结果表明：第一,四者的关联性存在明显的区制特征,区制1主要包括次贷危机时期（2007—2008年）、欧债危机时期（2010—2012年）以及后金融危机时期（2015—2016年）,经济呈现“股票市场收益率较低、跨境证券投资较少、短期利率较高、金融市场波动性大”的状态;区制2主要包括次贷危机前夕（2005—2006年）、次贷危机后的量化宽松时期（2009—2010年）以及欧债危机后的调整期（2013—2014年）,经济呈现“股票市场收益率较高、跨境证券投资较多、短期利率较低、金融市场波动性小”的状态。第二,当处于资本市场化进程较快、金融市场波动性较大的区制阶段（区制1）时,跨境证券投资与国内金融市场的联动关系更加明显。本文研究结论对于我国进一步开放资本市场具有借鉴价值和政策启示。     

区域财政横向均衡与改革发展新突破

认为全面深化改革仍需从财政体制上取得新突破。主张对中国经济区合纵连横,即将东、中、西"三大部"纵向区域调整为泛珠三角、泛长三角和大环渤海"三大块"横向区域,依托这一天然的均衡性区域平台在介于国家与省级之间实施区域财政横向均衡制度,以确保公共服务均等化而又不损坏财政经济增长的效率机制;并通过对常住人口统计中创造财富外溢或享有公共服务外溢等非真实因素剔除后"标准人"的假定与论证,解决了政府间财力均衡公式化分配的难题。     

声誉、搜寻成本与网上交易市场均衡

本文在搜寻理论的框架内分析了在卖家声誉存在差异的情况下,网上拍卖市场搜寻成本对价格水平和价格离差的影响,进而考察了搜寻成本对网上市场声誉机制的影响。本文的结论是:尽管搜索工具提高了网上交易市场的效率,但网上交易市场仍存在不可忽视的搜寻成本;较高的搜寻成本导致不同声誉水平的卖家同时存在于网上交易市场,高声誉卖家制定的价格较高,低声誉卖家制定的价格较低;搜寻效率的提高可以降低均衡价格水平,网站提供的推广服务也可以降低搜寻成本,降低均衡价格水平。模型很好地解释了网上拍卖市场中的一些现象,也与最近文献的经验事实有较好的吻合。     

EXISTENCE OF STATIONARY EQUILIBRIUM IN AN INCOMPLETE-MARKET MODEL WITH ENDOGENOUS LABOR SUPPLY

In this article, I first study an income fluctuation problem with endogenous labor supply. Let β be the agent's time discount factor and be the constant gross rate of return on assets. For , I show that the agent's wealth either approaches infinity almost surely or converges to a finite level almost surely. For , I prove the existence, uniqueness, and stability of the stationary distribution of state variables. I then show the existence of the stationary general equilibrium in an incomplete-market model with endogenous labor supply.     

A MODEL OF SELF‐FULFILLING FINANCIAL CRISES*

This paper combines the structural weakness and the self‐fulfilling panic view to explain the cause of the East Asian crises. In this model economy, the diversification strategies induce conglomerate firms to overinvest. They accumulate losses due to their unprofitable sectors and then compensate by obtaining bank loans. Domestic banks, which borrow from foreign banks, lend money as long as the total amount of accumulated loans remains within the firms’ collateral value. The model shows that if the debt to collateral value ratio belongs to a certain range a self‐fulfilling crisis can occur due to the self‐fulfilling expectations of foreign investors.     

金融地理学理论视角及中国金融地理研究

基于对国际文献和中国实际的了解和思考,从金融机构的空间结构、空间发展过程以及金融机构与环境的关系等方面分析了金融地理学的主要研究内容。主要理论问题包括地理存在论、金融变化的区域经济影响观点、区域金融系统演化模式、金融地理的路径依赖、金融全球化与地方关系等;在此基础上,从环境对金融地理影响、全球化与区域金融系统、行政格局与金融体系、金融系统与区域发展、金融企业地理5方面提出中国金融地理研究的切入点。     

UNEMPLOYMENT IN AN EQUILIBRIUM MODEL WITH BARGAINING*

This paper develops a model which embeds the Nash-equilibrium version of McDonald and Solow's (1981) wage-bargaining model into an otherwise standard static equilibrium macro model. Equilibrium unemployment is possible. Real shocks to demand result in pro-cyclical employment and anti-cyclical real wage movements while money shocks are neutral. This is in some contrast to the results obtained by McDonald and Solow.     

HOUSING MARKETS AND THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS: THE COMPLEX DYNAMICS OF A CREDIT SHOCK

We analyze the multiple channels of influence that global financial crisis‐induced credit restrictions had on New Zealand's subnational housing markets. The dynamics caused by the credit shock are compared to those caused by a migration shock, a more common form of housing shock in New Zealand. We focus on the impacts on two outcome variables, house prices and housing supply, within a structural time series model of regional housing markets. Both shocks cause substantial and prolonged cyclical adjustments in each variable. Similar cyclical dynamics could complicate the conduct of macroprudential policies designed to affect bank credit allocation. (JEL E32, E44, R21)