Entrepreneurial Migration in an Integrated World

A growing number of developed countries offer entrepreneurial visas as a means of attracting entrepreneurial talent and capital. In this paper, we use a simple two‐sector model of international trade with heterogeneous agents and financial frictions to show that entrepreneurial migration can contribute to the international efficiency of production, even when capital also flows internationally through borrowing and lending and foreign direct investment. In our model, all cross‐border transactions are motivated by cross‐country variations in the quality of financial institutions.     

资本账户开放与国际金融冲击的传导——基于DSGE模型的分析

本文在动态随机一般均衡的框架下,建立了一个包括贸易部门和非贸易部门的小型开放经济模型,系统研究和比较资本管制与资本账户开放两种情况下,国外金融冲击、出口需求冲击对中国经济的不同影响和传导机制,并检验资本账户开放情形下应对国际冲击时不同货币政策规则的有效性。结果发现：当资本账户开放时,一国受到国外冲击的波动幅度远大于资本管制的情况;资本管制和资本账户开放对国际金融冲击传导机制的关键差异在于贸易部门与非贸易部门的互动关系,具体表现为劳动力转移的差异;在资本账户开放后,面对不同形式的国际冲击,货币数量型规则和混合型规则均能有效熨平经济波动。     

优化我国出口商品结构必须提高劳动资本存量

当全球金融危机导致各国对外贸易严重衰退时,我国在国际出口市场的地位不降反升。然而我国要尽快实现从贸易大国向贸易强国的转化,必须解决出口商品结构升级的问题。本文选取我国1990-2008年数据为样本,通过建立资本技术密集型产品出口额占比与劳均资本存量的线性回归模型和误差修正模型,实证分析后的结论显示:劳均资本存量的提高对促进我国出口商品结构的优化升级具有显著的促进作用。     

Trade Intermediation and the Organization of Exporters

Empirical papers show that successful exporting firms either use unaffiliated foreign trade intermediaries or own foreign wholesale subsidiaries. However, conventional trade theory models assume that producers can directly access foreign consumers. We introduce intermediaries in an international trade model where producers differ with respect to productivity as well as regarding their varieties' perceived quality and tradability. Trade intermediation is prone to frictions owing to the absence of enforceable cross‐country contracts while own wholesale subsidiaries require additional capital investment. The sorting pattern of firms depends on their degree of competitive advantage; the equilibrium prevalence of intermediation in the industry depends negatively on the heterogeneity among producers, and the market‐specificity of goods, and positively on expropriation risk. Using sectoral US export data by destination country, we confirm the empirical validity of these predictions.     

Estimating the effects of non‐discriminatory trade policies within structural gravity models

We propose a simple method to identify the effects of unilateral and non‐discriminatory trade policies on bilateral trade within a theoretically consistent empirical gravity model. Specifically, we argue that structural gravity estimations should be performed with data that include not only international trade flows but also intra‐national trade flows. The use of intra‐national sales allows identification of the effects of non‐discriminatory trade policies such as most favoured nation tariffs, even in the presence of exporter and importer fixed effects. A byproduct of our approach is that it can be used to recover estimates of the trade elasticity, a key parameter for quantitative trade models. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our techniques in the case of most favoured nation tariffs and “time to export” as representative non‐discriminatory determinants of trade on the importer and on the exporter side, respectively. Our methods can be extended to quantify the impact on trade of any country‐specific characteristics as well as any non‐trade policies.     

Financial amplification of foreign exchange risk premia

Theories of financial frictions in international capital markets suggest that financial intermediaries' balance sheet constraints amplify fundamental shocks. We present empirical evidence for such theories by decomposing the U.S. dollar risk premium into components associated with macroeconomic fundamentals, and a component associated with financial intermediary balance sheets. Relative to the benchmark model with only macroeconomic state variables, balance sheets amplify the U.S. dollar risk premium. We discuss applications to financial stability monitoring.     

Trade partner diversification and growth: How trade links matter

We analyze the effects of a country’s export connections on its income growth using trade partner diversification (TPD) measures that capture the country’s relative importance in the international trade network. On top of the standard trade openness measures, TPD measures are shown to enter growth regressions positively and significantly, where one standard deviation increase in TPD is associated with a 1–1.5 percentage point increase in the annual growth rate. Threshold analyses show that TPD measures are positively and significantly correlated with growth in countries that have low financial depth, high inflation, low levels of human capital, or high trade openness.     

Export taxes versus buffer stocks as optimal export policies under uncertainty

Optimal state-dependent export taxes and costly-to-store buffer stocks are compared in their welfare implications for an exporter possessing monopoly power in the international trade of a volatile commodity. Optimal stochastic control is used to derive the optimal buffer stock rules. It is shown that, if the internal and external fluctuations facing the exporter are large, if the storage costs are low, and if the price elasticity of export supply is small relative to that of export demand, the exporter would gain more from a buffer stock than from a optimal export tax. World welfare is always increased by buffer stocks, as opposed to tariffs; and, under some conditions, the foreign country might also benefit and, hence, not retaliate.     

The heterogeneous effect of finance on international trade

Is the impact of financial development on international trade heterogeneous – being positive, negative or null – across manufacturing sectors? And is it dependent on the level of sectoral requirement on external finance for capital need? To examine these questions this article uses a panel trade database on 21 manufacturing sectors in 80 countries between 2000 and 2009. The analysis demonstrates that the effect of financial development on trade is indeed heterogeneous by estimating a coefficient for each sector and showing that the signs and significance levels vary across them. The article also demonstrates that sectors with strong reliance on external finance export higher volume from countries with developed financial system and that financial development reduces trade in industries with low financial dependence level.     

NEW EXPORTER DYNAMICS

We document that new exporters initially export small amounts, grow gradually, and are most likely to exit the export market in their first few years. We find that the standard sunk‐cost model cannot replicate these new exporter dynamics: New exporters grow too large too quickly and live too long. In a modified sunk‐cost model that can account for these facts, the entry costs needed to match the data are three times smaller than in the sunk‐cost model. Dynamic models with richer plant‐level heterogeneity are needed.     

基于VAR模型的人力资本与我国服务贸易出口关系的实证分析

人力资本到底能在多大程度上推动我国服务贸易的出口?目前国内学者对此研究的较少并且存在一定的争议。笔者利用1985年～2010年的时间序列数据进行实证分析,发现我国服务贸易的快速增长产生了对人力资本的长期大量的需求,而我国现存的大量人力资本对服务出口的贡献率却不太显著。因此,切实快速提高我国人力资本的质量是提高我国服务贸易国际竞争力的关键所在。     

Financial factors and the margins of trade: Evidence from cross-country firm-level data

Using a large cross-country, firm-level database containing 5000 firms in 9 developing and emerging economies, we study how financial factors affect both firms' export decisions and the amount exported by firms. First, our results highlight the importance of the impact of firms' access to finance on their entry decision into the export market. However, better financial health neither increases the probability of remaining an exporter once the firm has entered, nor the size of exports. Second, we find that financial constraints create a disconnection between firms' productivity and their export status: productivity is only a significant determinant of the export decision if the firm has a sufficient access to external finance. Finally, an increase in a country's financial development dampens this disconnection, thus acting both on the number of exporters and on the exporters' selection process. These results contribute to the literature documenting the role of fixed costs and of the extensive margin of trade in total trade adjustment, and provide micro-level evidence of the positive impact of financial development on trade found by previous literature.     

Portfolio allocation and international risk sharing

Abstract We show that recent explanations of the consumption‐real exchange rate anomaly that rely on goods and financial market frictions are not robust to introducing just one additional international asset. When portfolios are selected optimally, international trade in two nominal bonds implies a consumption‐real exchange rate correlation that is too high compared with the data even when there are many shocks. Monetary policy specification plays a potentially important role for the degree of risk sharing provided by nominal bonds, both in the benchmark model with only tradable and non‐tradable sector supply shocks and also in the model that allows for news.     

Can cross-listing relax financial frictions in trade and equity holdings? A sector-level analysis

Previous studies have documented the positive mutual relationship between bilateral aggregate goods trade and asset holdings. This article examines whether financial frictions play an important role in this mutual relationship. Instrumental variable Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood (IV-PPML) estimation method is applied to a new panel of data on US imports and foreign equity holdings in 20 manufacturing sectors from 43 countries over the period 2001–2007. The results confirm the significantly positive relationship between goods trade and equity holdings, and show that financial frictions are an important factor causing this positive correlation. In addition, we find that equity cross-listings in the US stock markets provide external funds to relax financial frictions and promote goods trade. This impact varies with different measures of financial frictions in developing and developed countries.     

Entrepreneurial Selection,Financial Markets,and Patterns of International Trade

This paper introduces entrepreneurial selection and imperfect financial markets to the 2x2x2 model of international trade. Entrepreneurs are heterogeneous in ability and borrow from banks who do not observe their ability. The pattern of international trade depends on (1) factor abundance, (2) endogenously determined productivity, and (3) endogenously determined financial market imperfections. We show that entrepreneurial selection results in a diminished Rybczynski effect and financial market imperfections further reduce the effect; hence differences in capital abundance imply a smaller trade volume than predicted by the Heckscher-Ohlin theorem. The results help to resolve a conflict between the Heckscher-Ohlin model and data. [F11]     

Risk sharing and export performance with firm heterogeneity

We investigate how market uncertainty affects the export performance of a firm through financial frictions. We first extend Melitz's (2003) heterogeneous firm trade model by incorporating demand shocks, linking the demand uncertainties to the financing costs of firms. In this extension, the default probability is endogenously determined by a firm's productivity and demand uncertainty. Hence, firms with higher productivity or lower market uncertainty are offered lower interest rates and thus show better export performance. As an application, we also show that a risk-sharing mechanism, that pools default risk for a certain group of firms, lowers the default risk. This mechanism allows banks to charge lower interest rates to the member firms and therefore ultimately improves their export performance in both extensive and intensive margins. We find a real-world example of such a mechanism from business groups in Korea. Using Korean firm-level data, we show that the more diversified the business group, the greater the likelihood that its member firms export and the bigger their export revenues. We also show that our results are robust to alternative explanations for Korean business groups’ export competitiveness.     

中国对美日欧服务贸易总量及结构出口潜力测算——基于变截距面板数据的引力模型分析

基于应用广泛的变截距面板数据模型,实证了中国对29个经济体服务贸易出口的影响因素和总量潜力及结构潜力,结果显示:空间距离对我国服务贸易的出口影响不显著,国际金融危机之后的服务贸易出口总额急剧下降是对出口不足的持续,总量上出口贸易的潜力增加,结构潜力较为复杂;运输、旅游等传统服务出口抗击全球金融危机的能力较小,而保险等新兴的服务出口规避风险能力较强。因此,在挖掘出口潜力和防止出口持续过度时,有关部门和企业应针对不同行业、不同目的国的特点,采取不同的发展措施。     

全球价值链嵌入、出口技术升级与制造业增加值隐含碳——来自浙江细分行业的经验证据

以外向型经济和制造业大省浙江为例,运用投入产出法测度2001—2017年浙江制造29个细分行业出口增加值隐含碳,并运用面板数据模型研究了嵌入全球价值链、出口技术升级对出口增加值隐含碳的影响。研究表明,浙江省制造业出口产品单位贸易利益的二氧化碳排放成本即出口增加值隐含碳大幅度下降。出口技术升级、贸易开放显著地降低了浙江省制造业出口增加值隐含碳,能源强度、人力资本、参与国际垂直分工等因素导致了出口增加值隐含碳的增长。交叉项检验表明,研发强度较高的行业出口技术升级会显著降低出口增加值隐含碳,外商直接投资、煤炭消耗占比、资本劳动占比较高的行业出口技术升级会导致出口增加值隐含碳的增加。     

头程运费、国际贸易与经济增长-来自中国120个城市的经验证据

本文首次使用头程运费刻画国内不同地区面临的进出口阻力,考察内生国际贸易与经济绩效的关系。IV结果表明OLS并没有高估国际贸易对中国经济增长的贡献,一旦控制了国际贸易,沿海地区并没有表现出更为出色的经济绩效;若国际贸易量提高1%,那么该地区人均GDP可望增长0.19%—0.22%。工具变量通过了严格的相关性和外生性检验,子样本敏感分析和控制变量方法保障了结论的稳健性。     

Financial frictions and total factor productivity: Accounting for the real effects of financial crises

Financial crises in emerging economies are accompanied by a large fall in total factor productivity. We explore the role of financial frictions in exacerbating the misallocation of resources and explaining this drop in TFP. We build a two-sector model of a small open economy with a working capital constraint on the purchase of intermediate goods. The model is calibrated to Mexico before the 1995 crisis and subjected to an unexpected shock to interest rates. The financial friction generates an endogenous fall in TFP and output and can explain more than half of the fall in TFP and 74 percent of the fall in GDP per worker.