The integration of the credit default swap markets during the US subprime crisis: Dynamic correlation analysis

This paper investigates the integration of the credit default swap (CDS) markets of 38 developed and emerging countries with the US market during the subprime crisis period by utilising dynamic conditional correlation from the multivariate GARCH model. Evidence reveals that the Lehman shock seems to have strengthened the integration, in particular, for developed markets. For both developed and emerging markets, declining US interest rates are found to be the main driving factor behind the higher level of correlation, suggesting that the CDS markets were heavily driven by the world largest economy when the crisis reached its peak.     

Employee leasing. The antebellum 1800s and the twenty-first century: A historical perspective of the contingent labour force

Management strategies have evolved over the centuries in response to economic and social needs of individuals and organizations. The maintenance of a flexible labour force was a management practice employed by industrialists more than a century ago. The use of employee leasing in the United States dates back to the industrial revolution that occurred during the nineteenth century. Industrialists leased bondsmen to supplement their labour force. This practice, known as 'hiring-out', permitted employers to obtain labour without making heavy investments in human resources. The motivations for maintaining a contingent labour force today are essentially unchanged from a century ago. This paper addresses the nineteenth-century use of a contingent labour force by the large Southern firm of Andrew Brown and Company in the period prior to the US Civil War.     

The US financial crisis,market volatility,credit risk and stock returns in the Americas

We employ the multivariate DCC-GARCH model to identify contagion from the USA to the largest developed and emerging markets in the Americas during the US financial crisis. We analyze the dynamic conditional correlations between stock market returns, changes in the general economy’s credit risk represented by the TED spread, and changes in the US market volatility represented by the CBOE Volatility Index^® (VIX). Our sample includes daily closing prices from January 1, 2002 to December 31, 2015, for the USA and stock markets in Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru. We first identify that increases in VIX have a negative intertemporal and contemporaneous relationship with most of the stock returns, and these relationships increase significantly during the US financial crisis. We then find evidence of significant increases in contemporaneous conditional correlations between changes in the TED spread and stock returns. Increases in conditional correlations during the financial crisis are associated with financial contagion from the USA to the Americas. Our findings have policy implications and are of interest to practitioners since they illustrate that during periods of financial distress, US stock volatility and weakening credit market conditions could promote financial contagion to the Americas.

     

Cities and environment in the twenty-first century: A future-oriented synthesis after Habitat II

A gigantic urban revolution is under way today: in 40 years, the equivalent of 1000 cities, each of three million inhabitants, will have to be built. In 2005, half of the world's population will live in cities. This growth will be concentrated in major cities, most of them in the South. This article reviews some fundamental trends, challenges and possible solutions in environment-related fields such as water, transports, energy. It argues for the emergence of a new urban culture based on the adoption of sustainable urban consumption patterns, new urban partnerships and the strengthening of urban solidarities. It gives examples of practical solutions within our reach for humanizing cities in the 21st century.     

The performance of insolvency prediction and credit risk models in the UK: A comparative study

Theoretically-driven, market-based contingent claims models have recently been applied to the field of corporate insolvency prediction in an attempt to provide the art with a theoretical methodology that has been lacking in the past. Limited studies have been carried out in order directly to compare the performance of these models with that of their accounting number-based counterparts. We use receiver operating characteristic curves to assess the efficacy of thirteen selected models using, for the first time, post-IFRS UK data; and investigate the distributional properties of model efficacy. We find that the efficacy of the models is generally less than that reported in the prior literature; but that the contingent claims models outperform models which use accounting numbers. We also obtain the counter-intuitive finding that predictions based on a single variable can be as efficient as those which are based on models which are far more complicated – in terms of variable variety and mathematical construction. Finally, we develop and test a naïve version of the down-and-out-call barrier option model for insolvency prediction and find that, despite its simple formulation, it performs favourably compared alongside other contingent claims models.     

The industry effect and the decision to integrate vertically in a crisis context

ABSTRACT

The objective of this work is twofold: firstly, to study if the characteristics of the industry affect certain financial and strategic decisions of manufacturing firms and, secondly, to determine if the strategy of diversifying the activity through vertical integration generates good financial results in times of crisis, depending on the industry. To this end, an analysis is carried out with panel data from 9,523 firms in the period between 2008 and 2013. The results show that there are different strategies that firms must follow, depending on the industry to which they belong. In sectors with lower operational risk, those firms characterized by greater specificity and better product quality obtained higher profitability. However, in riskier sectors, firms with more specific assets assumed too many risks and in times of crisis have seen their profitability fall. Likewise, it is observed that the decision to integrate vertically has mitigated the weak points of each sector, allowing firms to better weather the economic–financial crisis in which this research is framed.     

Contained crisis and socialized risk: Unconventional monetary policy by the Bank of Japan in the 1890s

In the 1880s, Japan experienced its first stock investment boom, which was highly leveraged by the banking sector. In 1890, its first financial crisis occurred and triggered a de-leveraging process. With a high lower bound of the conventional interest rate intervention under the fixed exchange rate regime, the Bank of Japan decided to implement a massive securities purchases first time among major industrial economies and continued this unconventional policy until the early 1900s. We examine how the unconventional intervention for a decade affected the stock prices and the trade volumes, and show that the upward distortion in market pricing was considerable and that the equity-risk premium accordingly dropped, which meant socialization of the risk associated with the industrial investment.     

The British 2001 Foot and Mouth crisis: a comparative study of public risk perceptions,trust and beliefs about government policy in two communities

This mixed methodology study examines public attitudes to risk and its management during the 2001 Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) epidemic in Britain. A quantitative survey and qualitative focus groups were conducted to examine how two communities (Norwich and Bude) responded to the crisis. People were more concerned about a broad range of indirect consequences than about the direct (health) impacts of the disease, especially about the effects on the livelihood and future of rural economies. Moreover, people detected a complex of causes underlying the emergence of FMD, which suggests that the outbreak of FMD was considered a system failure, rather than something that could be blamed on one specific cause or actor. In general, people appeared to be critical about governmental handling of the FMD epidemic. Although there was some support for the government policy of slaughtering infected animals, the government was widely criticized for the way they carried out their policies. Only minor differences between the two communities Norwich and Bude were found. In particular, differences were found related to the government handling of the disease, reflected most notably in people's trust judgements. It is argued that these were the result of contextual differences in local experience, and debate on the crisis, in the two communities.     

The CBO's policy analysis: An unquestionable misuse of a questionable theory

The analyses of fiscal and monetary policies that the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) provides Congress tend to be biased, encouraging the use of activist stabilization policies. The CBO's virtual neglect of economic uncertainties and its emphasis on very short time horizons make active policies appear much more attractive than its own model implies. Moreover, the CBO 's adoption of the macroeconometric approach fundamentally biases its analyses. Macroeconometric models do not remain invariant to changes in policy rules and are mute on the implications of alternative policies for efficiency and income distribution. The rational expectations equilibrium approach overcomes these difficulties and implies that less activist and less inflationary policies are desirable.     

Contagion inside the credit default swaps market: The case of the GM and Ford crisis in 2005

We study the General Motors (GM) and Ford crisis in 2005 in order to determine if the credit default swap (CDS) market is subject to contagion effects. Has the crisis spread to the whole (CDS) market? To answer this question, we study the correlations between CDS premia, by using a sample of 226 CDSs on major US and European firms. We do evidence a significant rise in correlations during the crisis episode, but little “shift-contagion” as defined by Forbes and Rigobon (2002). When using dynamic measures of correlations (EWMA and DCC-GARCH), we also show that correlations significantly increased during the crisis, especially in the first week.     

Minimum tax legislation and its effect on corporate financial reporting: A comparative analysis between US and India: a discussion

In this study, the authors investigate imposing a minimum alternative tax (MAT) on Indian corporations during the 1996–1997 budget years. The authors have two objectives: to assess the new legislation's impact on tax revenue, and to determine how corporations responded to its imposition because of its explicit link to financial reporting. They first assess whether, on average, firms with low estimated tax rates before the imposition paid higher taxes after imposition and find, overall, that corporations paid, in total, a greater amount of their income in taxes. They also find that the largest firms in their sample experienced a smaller increase in their effective tax rates than smaller firms did. Next, they assess whether MAT-affected firms altered their financial statement reporting to reduce exposure to the MAT. Specifically, they assess whether a greater portion of MAT-affected firms changed their financial statement depreciation policies than non-MAT-affected firms. They report that, for their sample, a significant number of MAT-affected firms increased their depreciation rate after MAT imposition. The proportion of non-MAT-affected firms changing depreciation rates after imposition was not significant. They also partition MAT- and non-MAT-affected firms on increasing or decreasing book profit and find that MAT-affected firms made proportionally more changes. The authors conclude that the MAT appeared to have increased horizontal equity among taxpayers in India, but its tax revenue enhancement potential is limited by its scope, limited applicability, and avoidance behavior by affected corporations. My comments are directed at what I perceive to be motivational and methodological issues in the paper and the conclusions we can draw from the current representation.     

The debt market relevance of management earnings forecasts: evidence from before and during the credit crisis

We investigate the credit market’s response via changes in credit default swap (CDS) spreads to management earnings forecasts and evaluate the importance of these forecasts relative to earnings news during the periods before and during the recent credit crisis. We document that credit markets react significantly to management forecast news and that the reactions to forecast news are stronger than to actual earnings news. Consistent with the asymmetric payoffs to debt holders, the forecast news is mainly relevant for firms with poor credit rating or announcing bad news. We also show that the relevance of management forecasts to credit markets is particularly strong during periods of high uncertainty, as experienced during the recent credit crisis.     

Dynamic spillovers between energy and stock markets and their implications in the context of COVID-19

This study combined time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) and a spillover index model to analyze the static, total, and net spillover effects of energy and stock markets before and after the COVID-19 outbreak. A network method was also used to depict structural changes more intuitively. Furthermore, we calculated and compared changes in the hedge ratio, optimal portfolio weights, and hedge effectiveness to guide investors to adjust portfolio strategies during COVID-19. The main findings were as follows: First, COVID-19 had a significant impact on spillover effects, and the average value of total spillover index increased by 19.94% compared with that before the epidemic. Second, the energy market was an important risk recipient of the stock market before COVID-19, and the extent of risk acceptance increased after the COVID-19 outbreak. Third, the hedging ratio, optimal portfolio weights, and hedge effectiveness showed huge changes after the COVID-19 outbreak, requiring investors to adjust their portfolio strategies.     

Announcements and the effectiveness of monetary policy: A view from the US prime rate

Until 1994, the US prime rate was said to be sticky because of its irresponsiveness to short-term interest rates. After the Fed started the practice of announcing its intended funds rate in 1994, however, the prime rate has come to react immediately to shifts in the target rate. This paper attempts to explain how the Fed’s policy announcements changed the behavior of the prime rate by using a simple menu cost model. It shows that an increase in the expected duration of funds rate targets was essential to the improvement in the target rate pass-through.     

The evolution of an industry: US thrifts in the 1990s

This paper estimates multi-product cost functions for nearly 900 thrifts from 1990 to 1995. The results show the thrift industry benefited in the 1990s from a combination of reduced scale diseconomies, technical progress, and industry consolidation. The 1990 sample is characterized by substantial diseconomies of scale, which increased with thrift size, while the 1995 sample shows thrifts of all sizes operating with constant returns to scale. Sample selection is an important issue since there are fundamental differences between the thrifts that exited the industry during the 1990s and those that survived through the 1990s. If one examines all operating thrifts each year, for example, estimates of technical progress are biased upward, since large, inefficient thrifts regularly exited the industry in the 1990s.     

Observed and “fundamental” price–earning ratios: A comparative analysis of high-tech stock evaluation in the US and in Europe

By assuming that a large share of investors (which we call fundamentalists) follows a fundamental approach to stock picking, we build a discounted cash flow (DCF) model and test on a sample of high-tech stocks whether the strong and the weak version of the model are supported by data from the US and European stock markets. Empirical results show that “fundamental” earning price ratios explain a significant share of cross-sectional variation of the observed E/P ratios, with other additional variables being only partially and weakly relevant.Within this general framework, valid both for Europe and the US, empirical results outline significant differences between the two markets. The most relevant of them is that the relationship between observed and fundamental E/P ratios is much weaker in Europe.     

Risk management,nonlinearity and aggressiveness in monetary policy: The case of the US Fed

We contribute to the empirical literature on the risk-management approach to monetary policy by estimating regime switching models where the strength of the response of monetary policy to macroeconomic conditions depends on the level of risk associated with the inflation outlook and risk in financial markets. Using quarterly data for the Greenspan period we find that: (i) risk in the inflation outlook and in financial markets are a more powerful driver of monetary policy regime changes than variables typically suggested in the literature, such as the level of inflation and the output gap; (ii) estimation of regime switching models shows that the response of the US Fed to the inflation outlook is invariant across policy regimes; (iii) however, in periods of high economic risk monetary policy tends to respond more aggressively to the output gap and the degree of inertia tends to be lower than in normal circumstances; and (iv) the US Fed is estimated to have responded aggressively to the output gap in the late 1980s and beginning of the 1990s, and in the late 1990s and early 2000s. These results are consistent with Mishkin (2008)’s view that in periods of high economic risk monetary authorities should respond aggressively to changes in macroeconomic conditions while the degree of inertia should be lower than in normal circumstances.     

Illiquidity or credit deterioration: A study of liquidity in the US corporate bond market during financial crises

We investigate whether liquidity is an important price factor in the US corporate bond market. In particular, we focus on whether liquidity effects are more pronounced in periods of financial crises, especially for bonds with high credit risk, using a unique data set covering more than 20,000 bonds, between October 2004 and December 2008. We employ a wide range of liquidity measures and find that liquidity effects account for approximately 14% of the explained market-wide corporate yield spread changes. We conclude that the economic impact of the liquidity measures is significantly larger in periods of crisis, and for speculative grade bonds.