历史文化古城游憩利用价值评估--以凤凰古城为例

在界定历史文化古城游憩利用价值的基础上,以凤凰古城实地调研数据为依据,利用旅行费用法(TCM)对其游憩利用价值进行评估。结果显示,2003年凤凰古城的游憩利用价值为90 428.82万元,其中旅行费用55 069.50万元、消费者剩余12 396.75万元、旅行时间价值5 699.58万元和其它费用17 262.72万元。     

Valuation and management of wetland ecosystems

We recently completed a study of wetland values in coastal Louisiana that employed both willingness-to-pay and energy analysis-based methodologies and were able to bracket a range of values within which we feel fairly confident the true value lies. However, a large amount of uncertainty remains. Our current estimates of the total prsent value of an average acre of natural wetlands in Louisiana are US$2429–6400 per acre (assuming an 8% discount rate) to $8977–17000 per acre (assuming a 3% discount rate). At the lowest value, the current annual rate of loss of Louisiana wetlands (50 sq miles per year) is worth about $77 million. At the largest value it is worth about $544 million.In this paper we (a) discuss the fundamental theoretical and practical problems underlying natural resources valuation; (b) summarize our methods and findings for Louisiana wetlands; and (c) elaborate on some of the more recalcitrant problems attending applied natural resource valuation, including discounting and dealing with uncertainty and imprecision.The discount rate makes more difference in the final result than any other one factor, and yet there is much disagreement about the appropriate approach to discounting natural resources. We discuss the discounting problem as applied to natural resources and argue for lower discount rates for valuing renewable natural resources than apply for other aspects of the economy.It now seems clear that no reasonable amount of effort will produce very precise estimates of wetland values, and we suspect this is also the case for several other classes of natural resources. We elaborate a Wetlands Asurance Bonding System to address these problems.     

Optimal strategies for the surveillance and control of forest pathogens: A case study with oak wilt

Cost-effective strategies are needed to find and remove diseased trees in forests damaged by pathogens. We develop a model of cost-minimizing surveillance and control of forest pathogens across multiple sites where there is uncertainty about the extent of the infestation in each site and when the goal is to minimize the expected number of new infections. We allow for a heterogeneous landscape, where grid cells may be differentiated by the number of trees, the expected number of infected trees, rates of infection growth, and costs of surveillance and control. In our application to oak wilt in Anoka County, Minnesota, USA, we develop a cost curve associated with saving healthy trees from infection. Assuming an annual infection growth rate of 8%, a $1 million budget would save an expected 185 trees from infection for an average of $5400 per tree.We investigate how more precise prior estimates of disease and reduced detection sensitivity affect model performance. We evaluate rules of thumb, finding that prioritizing sites with high proportions of infected trees is best. Our model provides practical guidance about the spatial allocation of surveillance and control resources for well-studied forest pathogens when only modest information about their geographic distribution is available.     

Pricing competition: a new laboratory measure of gender differences in the willingness to compete

Experiments have demonstrated that men are more willing to compete than women. We develop a new instrument to “price” willingness to compete. We find that men value a $2.00 winner-take-all payment significantly more (about $0.28 more) than women; and that women require a premium (about 40 %) to compete. Our new instrument is more sensitive than the traditional binary-choice instrument, and thus, enables us to identify relationships that are not identifiable using the traditional binary-choice instrument. We find that subjects who are the most willing to compete have high ability, higher GPA’s (men), and take more STEM courses (women).     

历史文化古城的非利用价值评估研究--以凤凰古城为例

文章在界定历史文化古城非利用价值构成的前提下,以在凤凰古城实地调研和向全国发放的CV调查表的数据为依据,以2002年末全国城镇就业人口为总人口样本,利用条件价值法(CVM)对历史文化古城的非利用价值进行评估。结果显示2003年凤凰古城的非利用价值为314,019万元,其中存在价值139,361．67万元、遗产价值101,867．79万元、选择价值72,758．22万元。     

A Spatial Hedonic Approach to Assess the Impact of Swine Production on Residential Property Values

A spatial hedonic model is developed to assess monetary harm of confined animal feeding operations (CAFOs) on property values, taking explicitly into account spatial dependence in property values. Spatial autocorrelation was found in the form of spatial lag dependence, not spatial error dependence. When spatial lag dependence is explicitly taken into account, on average the impact coefficient estimate of a CAFO is reduced by 18%. For example, the impact on the value of the median house ($63,520) 1 mile from a swine facility with 10,000 head fell from  − $6,800 to  − $5,200, or 23.5%. The magnitude of the spatial autoregressive parameter was about 0.2 for the 1-mile distance band, meaning one-fifth of the house value could be explained by the values of the neighboring houses.     

The cost of diabetes and obesity in Australia

Aims: To assess and compare the direct healthcare and non-healthcare costs and government subsidies by body weight and diabetes status.

Methods: The Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle study collected health service utilization and health-related expenditure data at the 2011–2012 follow-up surveys. Costing data were available for 4,409 participants. Unit costs for 2016–2017 were used where available or were otherwise inflated to 2016–2017 dollars. Age- and sex-adjusted costs per person were estimated using generalized linear models.

Results: The annual total direct cost ranged from $1,998 per person with normal weight to $2,501 per person with obesity in participants without diabetes. For those with diabetes, total direct costs were $2,353 per person with normal weight, $3,263 per person with overweight, and $3,131 per person with obesity. Additional expenditure as government subsidies ranged from $5,649 per person with normal weight and no diabetes to $8,085 per person with overweight and diabetes. In general, direct costs and government subsidies were higher for overweight and obesity compared to normal weight, regardless of diabetes status, but were more noticeable in the diabetes sub-group. The annual total excess cost compared with normal weight people without diabetes was 26% for obesity alone and 46% for those with obesity and diabetes.

Limitations: Participants included in this study represented a healthier cohort than the Australian population. The relatively small sample of people with both obesity and diabetes prevented a more detailed analysis by obesity class.

Conclusion: Overweight and obesity are associated with increased costs, which are further increased in individuals who also have diabetes. Interventions to prevent overweight and obesity or reduce weight in people who are overweight or obese, and prevent diabetes, should reduce the financial burden.     

Projecting total costs and health consequences of increasing mt-sDNA utilization for colorectal cancer screening from the payer and integrated delivery network perspectives

Abstract

Aims: To evaluate total costs and health consequences of a colorectal cancer (CRC) screening program with colonoscopy, fecal immunochemical tests (FIT), and expanded use of multitarget stool DNA (mt-sDNA) from the perspectives of Integrated Delivery Networks (IDNs) and payers in the United States.

Materials and methods: We developed a budget impact and cost-consequence model that simulates CRC screening for eligible 50- to 75-year-old adults. A status quo scenario and an increased mt-sDNA scenario were modeled. The status quo includes the current screening mix of colonoscopy (83%), FIT (11%), and mt-sDNA (6%) modalities. The increased mt-sDNA scenario increases mt-sDNA utilization to 28% over 10 years. Costs for both the IDN and the payer perspectives incorporated diagnostic and surveillance colonoscopies, adverse events (AEs), and CRC treatment. The IDN perspective included screening program costs, composed of direct nonmedical (e.g. patient navigation) and indirect (e.g. administration) costs. It was assumed that IDNs do not incur the costs for stool-based screening tests or bowel preparation for colonoscopies.

Results: In a population of one million covered lives, the 10-year incremental cost savings incurred by increasing mt-sDNA utilization was $16.2 M for the IDN and $3.3 M for the payer. The incremental savings per-person-per-month were $0.14 and $0.03 for the IDN and payer, respectively. For both perspectives, increased diagnostic colonoscopy costs were offset by reductions in screening colonoscopies, surveillance colonoscopies, and AEs. Extending screening eligibility to 45- to 75-year-olds slightly decreased the overall cost savings.

Limitations: The natural history of CRC was not simulated; however, many of the utilized parameters were extracted from highly vetted natural history models or published literature. Direct nonmedical and indirect costs for CRC screening programs are applied on a per-person-per modality basis, whereas in reality some of these costs may be fixed.

Conclusions: Increased mt-sDNA utilization leads to fewer colonoscopies, less AEs, and lower overall costs for both IDNs and payers, reducing overall screening program costs and increasing the number of cancers detected while maintaining screening adherence rates over 10 years.     

The economic effects of lowering HIV incidence in South Africa: A CGE analysis

South Africa has the highest UNAIDS HIV severity rating: “generalised pandemic”. A country with this classification requires public health interventions aimed at the general population. This paper investigates the efficacy of one such policy, examining the national economic effects of an increase in condom use. We use an epidemiological model to estimate the impact of condom use on HIV infections distinguished by age, gender and race. The epidemiological model's outputs are input to an economy-wide dynamic general equilibrium model that distinguishes labour market participants by age, gender, race, labour market status and HIV status. We find that the programme generates gains in real consumption with a present value of approximately USD $30 billion, or USD $2000 per household.     

THE ECONOMIC VALUE OF PREVENTING RESPIRATORY AND CARDIOVASCULAR HOSPITALIZATIONS

This article provides estimates of the economic benefits of reducing respiratory and cardiovascular hospitalizations based on cost of illness and willingness to pay. The willingness-to-pay estimates indicate that individuals value prevention of a five-day hospitalization event at an average of approximately $2,400. Average total costs of illness per hospitalization are $22,000–39,000. A comprehensive cost-of-illness estimate that includes value of time losses for the hospitalization and at-home recovery periods provides a close approximation of total costs borne by third parties plus individual willingness to pay. Both exceed previous cost-of-illness estimates by about 10–25%. (JEL D61, I18, Q25 )     

Economic burden of comorbid chronic kidney disease and diabetes

Objective: To estimate real-world healthcare utilization and expenditures across the spectrum of chronic kidney disease (CKD), as determined by estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) categories in patients with diabetes.

Methods: This study employed a retrospective cohort study design using the Truven Healthcare and Claims Dataset from 2009–2012. Index date was defined as the first eGFR value during a continuous enrollment period of 24 months. Cohorts of patients were stratified by Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes CKD stage based on eGFR (stages 1: ≥90?mL/min/1.73?m²; 2: 60–89; 3A: 45–59; 3B: 30–44; 4: 15–29; 5: <15). Healthcare expenditures (total patient and payer paid claims) and utilization (number of claims or visits) were estimated 12-months post-index date using generalized linear modeling and negative binomial modeling, respectively, after adjusting for baseline characteristics.

Results: Of 130,098 patients with an index eGFR value and 24-months continuous enrolment, 64,521 (49.59%) were in stage 1 CKD, 47,816 (36.75%) were in stage 2, 13,377 (10.28%) were in stage 3A, 3,217 (2.47%) were in stage 3B, 898 (0.69%) were in stage 4, and 269 (0.21%) were in stage 5. Patients in stages 3A, 3B, and 4 CKD had 1.32 (95% CI?=?1.22–1.43), 1.59 (95% CI?=?1.41–1.80), and 2.65 (95% CI?=?2.23–3.14) times higher rates of diabetes-associated inpatient visits, respectively, compared with stage 1 CKD patients. Patients in stages 3A, 3B, and 4 CKD had increased incremental total annual healthcare expenditures of $1,732 (95% CI?=?$1,109–$2,356), $2,632 (95% CI?=?$1,647–$3,619), and $6,949 (95% CI?=?$5,466–$8,432), respectively, compared with stage 1 CKD patients.

Limitations: The claims data were generated for billing and reimbursement, not for research purposes.

Conclusions: These real-world data suggest an incremental and significant increase in economic burden in diabetes as kidney function declines, starting with moderate (stage 3A) CKD.     

Cost-effectiveness of risk stratification for preventing type 2 diabetes using a multi-marker diabetes risk score

Abstract

Background:

Personalized medicine requires diagnostic tests that stratify patients into distinct groups that may differentially benefit from targeted treatment approaches. This study compared the costs and benefits of two approaches for identifying those at high risk of developing type 2 diabetes for entry into a diabetes prevention program. The first approach identified high risk patients using impaired fasting glucose (IFG). The second approach used the PreDx Diabetes Risk Score (DRS) to further stratify IFG patients into high-risk and moderate-risk groups.

Methods:

A Markov model was developed to simulate the incidence and disease progression of diabetes and consequent costs and quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALY), comparing alternative approaches for identifying high-risk patients. We modeled direct medical costs, including the costs of the stratification testing, over a 10-year time horizon from a US payer perspective.

Results:

Stratification of IFG patients by the DRS method leads to improved identification and prevention among those at highest risk. At 5 years, the number needed to treat (NNT) in the IFG-only approach was 39 patients to prevent one case of diabetes compared to an NNT of 15 in the IFG?+?DRS approach. When compared to IFG alone, the IFG?+?DRS approach results in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $17,100/QALY gained at 5 years and would become cost saving in 10 years. In contrast and as compared to no stratification, the IFG-only approach would produce an ICER of $235,500/QALY gained at 5 years and $94,600/QALY gained at 10 years. The study findings are limited by the generalizability of the DRS validation study and uncertainty regarding the long-term effectiveness of diabetes prevention.

Conclusions:

The analysis indicates that the cost-effectiveness of diabetes prevention can be improved by better identification of patients at highest risk for diabetes using the DRS.     

Estimating the market value of collegiate football players from professional factor shares

Although the level and growth of revenue in college football has drawn increasing public attention, reliable estimates of the value of college and associated rents remain elusive. Many players do not have easily observable performance statistics and there are significant complementarities. Using a simple estimation strategy based on professional factor shares and rooted in economic theory, we generate estimates of market value for college players across seven National Collegiate Athletic Association conferences using professional football and basketball salaries from 2011 to 2013 as shadow prices. With this method, market value of an average starting football player in a Bowl Championship Series (BCS) conference ranges from $120,000 to $1.7 million per year. The value of superstar players may exceed $4 million per year. We find that rents can flow from the institutions to players in some cases at relatively low-revenue institutions outside the BCS.     

Identifying cost-effective screening algorithms for active hepatitis C virus infections in a high prevalence setting

Objective: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of different screening patterns for active chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections utilizing the hepatitis C core antigen test compared to standard care in the context of a general screening program in a high-prevalence country.

Methods: This study developed a decision analytic model to estimate the cost-effectiveness of four screening algorithms for the detection of active HCV infections among asymptomatic individuals with an unknown HCV status in a context of high (>5%) HCV prevalence. Three algorithms started with a serological test for antibodies (AB) followed by a nucleic acid test for HCV-RNA (RNA), the HCVAg (AG) assay, or both. An additional single marker screening strategy with AG was added to the analysis. By the example of the Republic of Georgia, strategies were compared in terms of total costs for screening and diagnosis of an active infection from a health system perspective.

Results: Replacing RNA with AG for confirmation of positive AB identified fewer active infections (–110 per 100,000 screened subjects) at significantly reduced total costs (–$2.74 per screened) and costs per diagnosed infection (–$44). Adding a subsequent RNA confirmatory test on AG negative results captured at least the same rate compared to the standard (AB followed by RNA) at still reduced costs (–$1.16 per subject screened, –$22 per case detected). Utilizing AG as the frontline test revealed the highest detection rate (97.9%) at the highest costs (+$3.80 per subject, +$323 per case detected vs standard).

Conclusion: A combined pattern of HCV AB screening followed by sequential confirmation with AG and RNA on AG negatives would provide equal or better diagnostic performance at lower cost over a broad range of scenarios. Potential long-term consequences of screening strategies to patients and society have to be considered, since the latency period for HCV to develop into severe liver disease is long.     

Battery technology for electric and hybrid vehicles: Expert views about prospects for advancement

In this paper we present the results of an expert elicitation on the prospects for advances in battery technology for electric and hybrid vehicles. We find disagreement among the experts on a wide range of topics, including the need for government funding, the probability of getting batteries with Lithium Metal anodes to work, and the probability of building safe Lithium-ion batteries. Averaging across experts we find that U.S. government expenditures of $150 M/year lead to a 66% chance of achieving a battery that costs less than $200/kWh, and a 20% chance for a cost of $90/kWh or less. Reducing the cost of batteries from a baseline of $384 to $200 could lead to a savings in the cost of reducing greenhouse gases of about $100 billion in 2050.     

‘Adopt a Hypothetical Pup’: A Count Data Approach to the Valuation of Wildlife

The willingness to pay (WTP) for a coyote conservation program is estimated using a novel payment-vehicle, based on how many ‚problem’ coyotes respondents would be willing to sponsor for a year. This hypothetical scenario mimics an increasingly popular type of actual market. Data from a phone survey conducted in Prince Edward Island are analyzed using count data models that consider different processes explaining zero responses and the level of positive responses. This is particularly important in the case of coyotes, often regarded as an economic bad. Estimates of WTP per coyote per year around $18–$22 and annual WTP per contributor of about $46–$57 are obtained.      

A monetary valuation of individual religious behaviour: the case of prayer

The majority of the US population is religious. The value of a fundamental religious behaviour, prayer, is determined using the well-being valuation method. Theoretically appropriate Instrumental Variables (IV) are used to avoid bias in estimating the effects of household income and the frequency of prayer on well-being. The marginal value of an additional weekly prayer session for individuals already at the national mean is estimated to be $6550 per annum (2004 dollars). Praying at the frequency of the national mean of 8.1 prayer sessions weekly is valued at $53?055 (2004 dollars) per annum. This is larger than the median household income in the US in 2004: $44?684. This suggests that the perception of communion with God is highly valued by religious individuals.     

Selective versus Random Moose Harvesting: Does it Pay to be a Prudent Predator?

Seeking to act as prudent predators in many biological systems, humans try to harvest in a sustainable manner. In Sweden, wildlife managers and moose hunters use information about the future contribution of individual moose to population growth (i.e., their reproductive value), in order to harvest low-and non-reproductive animals. This selective harvest strategy results in a significantly faster overall population growth rate. To investigate whether this selective harvest policy is economically beneficial, we calculated the present value of the selective moose hunting policy used in Sweden compared to the present value of a non-regulated (i.e. random) moose harvest. Present values of the moose hunting produced by the different hunting regimes were calculated for a period of ten years and at interest rates ranging between 1% and 10%. The difference in present value between the selective hunting policy and the average outcome of random harvesting was SEK 310 million ($ 36 million) and SEK 300 million ($ 34 million), or SEK 1 321 ($ 154) and SEK 1 279 ($ 149) for an average moose hunter, when using interest rates of 3% and 4%, respectively. To determine whether the current selective moose hunting policy is economically profitable or not, benefit estimates like these should be weighted against the costs of upholding the policy. Most of the costs probably lie in providing the hunters with information about the future harvesting prospects and reducing the risk of divergences from the policy. The welfare effects of a hunting policy will also be dependent on the individual hunter's preferences, for instance in terms of their attitudes towards risk. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The social value of carbon sequestered in Great Britain's woodlands

The economic value of carbon storage associated with British woodland is calculated. Models were developed to estimate C flux associated with live trees, forest floor litter, soils, wood products, harvest, fossil fuel used in manufacturing and C displacement from biofuels and products for representative British plantation species: Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis) and beech (Fagus sylvatica). Map databases of publicly and privately owned woodlands were compiled for Great Britain. Carbon flux was determined for individual woodland sites, and monetised using candidate parameters for the social discount rate (1, 3, 3.5 or 5%) and social value of carbon (US$109.5, $1, $10 or $17.10/t). A conventional discount function was applied. Final results are expressed as Net Present Values, for the base year 2001, with discounting commencing in 2002. The minimum suggested NPV (discount rate = 3% and social value of carbon = $1) of GB woodlands already existing in 2001 is $82 million, with a further $72 million that might be added by future afforestation. These figures rise dramatically if a discount rate of 1% and social value of sequestered carbon = $109.5/t are assumed. The calculated total value of C stored in British woodland depends significantly on parameter assumptions, especially about appropriate discount rate and social value of sequestered carbon.     

Valuing Changes in the Quality of Coral Reef Ecosystems: A Stated Preference Study of SCUBA Diving in the Bonaire National Marine Park

We estimated the economic value of changes in the quality of a coral reef ecosystem to SCUBA divers in the Caribbean using a stated preference mail survey. Our sampling frame was all divers with U.S. home addresses who purchased a tag required for diving in the Bonaire National Marine Park in 2001. Divers were asked how they might have altered their trip choice had the quality of the coral reef system been different from what they experienced. From these responses we inferred the value of three different levels of quality defined by visibility, species diversity, and percent coral cover. We used random utility theory and mixed logit to analyze the choice questions. Our sample size was 211, and our survey response rate was 75%. For modest changes in quality we estimated per person annual losses at $45. For larger losses the value was $192. Presented at the 3rd World Congress of Environmental and Resource Economists in Kyoto, Japan, July 2006.