Trade liberalization,the exchange rate and job flows in Brazil

Brazil underwent a large trade liberalization process in the 1990s. Over the period, manufacturing employment decreased significantly, generating public debate on the need to revert liberalization. This paper aims to identify the actual effect of trade liberalization on employment, separating it from exchange rate movements using a gross job flow approach. Our novel dataset covers all sectors and formally registered enterprises, and we use new sector specific exchange rate data. Our estimates suggest that greater openness reduce jobs through increased job destruction, with no effect on job creation, but the exchange rate matters also. Depreciations expand the number of jobs in manufacturing by increasing creation, with no effect on destruction.     

Trade liberalization and technical efficiency in the Indonesian chemicals industry

This article examines the impact of trade reform on technical efficiency on the Indonesian chemicals industry using firm-level panel data. The effects of trade reform on technical efficiency are analysed using a stochastic frontier approach. Two variables represent trade reform in this model: effective rate of protection (ERP) and import ratio (IMP). The findings of the present study suggest that both trade reform variables have significant effects on technical efficiency. The coefficient of ERP has a positive sign and is statistically significant, which means that an increase in ERP increases the inefficiency (or decreases the technical efficiency) of firms in the chemicals industry. The coefficient of IMP is negative and statistically significant, which represents the negative impact of IMP on technical inefficiency (or positive on technical efficiency). Thus, trade reform, a reduction in ERP or an increase in IMP, has an unambiguously positive effect on technical efficiency in the Indonesian chemicals industry.     

Trade liberalization,wilful credit defaults and bank bribery in a credit-constrained economy

The rising incidence of credit defaults may cause credit crunch. This affects the ability of firms to finance working capital and also fixed capital formation. Naturally, this is a major macroeconomic shock. This paper is an attempt to address the microeconomic foundation of such macroeconomic shock. We provide a theoretical framework to explain the economic rationale behind ‘wilful corporate defaults’ and ‘financial corruption’ in the specific context of trade liberalization. First, we model the behavioural aspects of wilful corporate defaulters and bank officials to determine the bank bribe rate as an outcome of the Nash bargaining process in a two-stage sequential move game. Based on the results of the partial equilibrium framework, we examine aspects of trade liberalization in an otherwise 2 × 2 general equilibrium framework. We also compare the efficacy of punishment strategies to economic incentives to deter credit defaults and banking sector corruption. Methodologically, our analytical model integrates finance capital distinctly from physical capital in Jonesian general equilibrium framework. Interestingly, our findings indicate that there exists a trade-off at equilibrium between curbing credit defaults and bribery. We also find that not all punishment strategies are equally effective at deterring credit defaults if general equilibrium interlinkage effects are carefully dealt with.     

Trade liberalization and capacity utilization: New evidence from the Turkish rubber industry

This study empirically tests the hypothesis that trade liberalization increases capacity utilization. It calculates capacity utilization for the Turkish rubber industry by using a production theory framework. More specifically, plant-level capacity utilization levels are calculated using a Generalized Leontief cost function system. Capacity utilization levels were low but improved when the trade regime shifted from a restrictive to a more liberalized one. The size and location of plants were two significant factors which created capacity utilization differences within the industry. However, capacity utilization levels appeared to improve primarily because of trade liberalization.Also, a scholar-in-residence, Department of Economics, Duke University. My particular thanks go to Patrick Conway, Marjorie McElroy, Edward Tower, participants of the International Economics Workshops at Duke University, and the anonymous referee for helpful suggestions. Any errors are mine.     

Trade liberalization and institutional reforms1

The accession of Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries to the European Union (EU) is expected to lead to the new member countries becoming more like the older members, including in terms of trade. In this paper, we focus on two factors promoting CEE–EU trade integration: trade liberalization and institutional reforms. Measures of trade liberalization undertaken by both parties during the 1990s were very substantial, but did not always produce the expected upsurge of regional trade flows. Much less progress has been made in improving the functioning of CEE institutions (e.g., progress in the privatization process or in reducing corruption). Countries where most important changes at the institutional level occurred were also those that most increased their trade with the EU. Comparing the impact of these two factors, we find that improving institutions in CEE countries can generate as much trade as the removal of all tariff and non‐tariff barriers. The paper also addresses the issue of the presence of reversed causality between trade and institutions, and the pro‐trade effect of institutional similarity.     

Unequal skill premiums and trade liberalization: Is education the missing link?

We examine the impact of increased trade on wage inequality in developing countries; whether higher human capital stocks moderate this effect. We find countries with a higher level of initial human capital experience less increased wage inequality following increased trade.     

Economic liberalization, capital mobility and informal wage in a small open economy: A theoretical analysis

Empirical evidence suggests that the size of the informal sector in the developing countries has increased considerably during the liberalized economic regime. The present paper purports to analyze the consequences of economic reforms on the wellbeing of the informal sector workforce using a three-sector general equilibrium model with two informal sectors. The theoretical analysis finds that different liberalized policies produce diverse effects on the informal wage and that these results are independent of the nature of capital mobility between the informal and the formal sectors. It also shows that labour market reforms, contrary to the common wisdom, are likely to produce favourable effects on the informal wage.     

Export,FDI and the welfare gains from trade liberalization

This paper extends Melitz and Redding (2015) to analyze the welfare gains from trade liberalization by adding foreign direct investment(FDI). Our model predicts that with FDI activities, welfare gains from trade liberalization will be strictly lower than those in a model without FDI, but only takes exports into account. In addition, the calibrated model indicates that with FDI activities, aggregate welfare reaches its maximum when the fixed export costs are positive rather than 0. Furthermore, we decompose the welfare gains induced by trade liberalization from continuing exporters, and switchers. The results show that in any case, with or without FDI, continuing exporters contribute a larger share to welfare gains than status switching firms.     

The impact of trade liberalization on employment,capital, and productivity dynamics: evidence from the uruguayan manufacturing sector

This paper studies the impact of trade liberalization on labor and capital gross flows and productivity in the Uruguayan Manufacturing Sector. Higher international exposure implied a slightly higher job creation, an important increase in job and capital destruction, and an increase in productivity. Unions dampened these effects. Although not associated with higher creation rates, unions were effective in reducing job and capital destruction but they also reduced productivity growth. Industry concentration mitigated the destruction of jobs but had no effects on job creation or in capital and productivity dynamics.     

Trade liberalization and political support in transition economies

Most transition economies in Central and Eastern Europe have rather surprisingly resisted protectionist pressures-at least during early stages of reform-and pursued fairly liberal trade policies. In this paper, trade policy during transition is explained from a political economy perspective. It is shown that pursuing liberal trade policies can be a rational strategy of reform politicians, maximizing the probability of electoral success.     

Institutional environment,ownership and firm taxation

This paper examines how ownership type and institutional environment affect firm taxation. Using a sample of Chinese‐listed firms from 1999 to 2006, we find that private firms enjoy a lower effective tax rate than local state‐owned enterprises. In addition, the preferential taxation of private firms is associated with local government incentives to promote local economic growth. We find that private firms located in regions with a lower level of privatization receive preferential tax treatment. Our results also suggest that decentralization and interjurisdictional competition lead to financial interdependence between local governments and private firms.     

Trade prices and supply in the UK economy

Current account imbalances are a major source of instability in the world monetary and trading system. Measures to correct these imbalances have largely involved adjustments to exchange rates. In the international trade literature, when the current account is in deficit, the Marshall-Lerner condition is sufficient for a successful devaluation. However, this partial equilibrium condition — apart from being based on the assumption that supply elasticities are infinite — abstracts from how the domestic economy responds to the change in relative prices. In this paper we develop a model of price and output determination in an open economy with imperpectly competitive markets, and draw a distinction between goods which are exported and those which are supplied to the domestic market. This means that we have to determine jointly both export prices and the domestic price of house sales. We show that as long as there is no money illusion in the labour market a fall in the nominal exchange rate raises domestic and export prices proportionally and leaves trade volumes unaffected. However, shifts in domestic absorption relative to overseas demand — by changing relative prices — cause shifts in the relative supply of exports and domestically sold goods and affect the trade balance. Thus fiscal and monetary measures directed towards reducing domestic absorption are more likely to be successful in correcting current account imbalances than exchange rate depreciation.     

Trade liberalization and the inter-industry wage premia: the missingf role of productivity

The literature concerning the effect of tariffs on the inter-industry wage premium has not addressed the role of total factor productivity (TFP) in determining both the wage premium and tariffs. This omission not only overlooks an important determinant of wage premium but also invalidates the use of the pre-reform tariff level as an instrument for the change in tariffs. Based on an analysis of Colombian data, I find that including TFP in the estimated model of the effects of tariffs on the wage premium leads to a 41% decrease in the effect of tariffs on the inter-industry wage premium relative to the model that omits TFP. More specifically, a 10 percentage point decrease in tariffs reduces the wage premium by 1.01%, whereas a 10% increase in TFP raise wage premium by 1.6%. This finding suggests the importance of using policies that boost productivity to offset the effect of tariffs on the wage premium.     

Preferential versus multilateral trade liberalization and the role of political economy

In this paper we analyze the effect of the freedom to pursue preferential trade liberalization, permitted by Article XXIV of the GATT, on country׳s incentives to participate in multilateral negotiations and on feasibility of global free trade. We present a model, in which countries choose whether to participate in preferential or multilateral trade agreements under political pressures from domestic special interest groups. We show that heterogeneity in political preferences across countries plays an important role in determining the relative merits of preferential and multilateral approaches to trade liberalization. On one hand, the opportunity to liberalize preferentially may be necessary to induce countries with strong political motivations to participate in multilateral free trade negotiations. On the other hand, when countries share similar political preferences, multilateral free trade that would have been politically supported otherwise becomes unattainable if countries can pursue preferential liberalization.     

Economic liberalization and wage inequality in the presence of labour market imperfection

This paper is purported to analyze the consequences of liberalized economic policies on the skilled–unskilled wage inequality in the developing countries using a three sector general equilibrium model reasonable for at least a few developing economies. The analysis of the paper has found that the wage inequality rises unambiguously due to a reduction of import tariff from the low-skill manufacturing sector. However, an inflow of foreign capital produces a favourable effect on the wage inequality under a reasonable factor intensity condition. Interestingly, contrary to the common wisdom, a policy of labour market reform may raise the competitive unskilled wage and improve wage inequality under reasonable condition.     

Trade and financial liberalization with asymmetric information in bank financing

We investigate trade and financial openness in a small developing country where entrepreneurs need bank financing to operate in an import‐competing sector but banks do not observe their ability. This informational asymmetry causes adverse selection of low‐ability individuals into entrepreneurship and also prevents poor but able individuals from being entrepreneurs. We find that trade opening improves national welfare, but a tax is needed on foreign financial capital. Trade opening reduces an income gap between the rich and the poor, while financial opening affects this income gap ambiguously.     

经济、贸易与环境相容关系论说

经济、贸易与环境相容意指经济增长、贸易扩大没有损害环境,其判别标准包括零污染排放或者污染排放零增长、零污染遗留或者污染遗留零增长、环境自净极限等三级标准;其实现的必要条件是环境有益的结构效应和技术效应足以抵消规模效应;其测度指标包括绝对值、变化事和比率等三类指标.经济-环境、贸易-环境两对相容关系的成因不尽相同.     

The liberalization of trade and foreign direct investment: a political economy analysis

Abstract

In theory, the IMF could influence fiscal and monetary policy via several channels, among them advice to policy makers, conditionality, and the moral hazard it induces with the borrowers. This article tries to disentangle those effects empirically. Using panel data for 98 countries over the period 1975–2000 it analyzes whether IMF involvement indeed influences fiscal and monetary policy in program countries. There is evidence that participation in IMF Standby and Extended Fund Facility arrangements improves economic policy. Money disbursed and the degree to which a program is implemented does not have any systematic influence. The same is true for future availability of resources as measured by exhaustion of a country’s quota with the Fund. The final section discusses policy implications.     

Trade cost reduction and foreign direct investment

While the “proximity-concentration” theory suggests a positive relationship between trade cost and foreign direct investment (FDI), there is ample evidence showing a negative relationship between them. We show that the possibility of exporting back to the home country from a host country, which is often referred as “home-country export platform FDI”, may generate a negative relationship between trade cost and FDI. Market demand and product market competition may play important roles in this respect.