中国竞技体育发展的区域差异研究

运用数理统计和GIS空间分析法,探究1984—2016年不同空间尺度下夏季奥运会奖牌的时空分布特征及演变规律,结果表明:中国夏季奥运会奖牌总量及不同类型奖牌数量的变化差异较大,奖牌总量在整体上展现出由低缓增长、快速增长到迅速下降的演变过程,不同阶段各类型奖牌数量变化存在非均质性,其内部增长比重的变化差异也较为显著。不同时期奥运会奖牌分布的绝对差异呈现继续扩大的趋势,而区域间分布的相对差异整体表现出缩小的态势。奖牌分布的地理集中指数表现出明显的三个变化阶段,整体呈反"S"型演变趋势。奖牌主要分布在东中部地区,东、中、西三大地区的地带差异性明显,呈现出由沿海向内陆逐步递减的趋势,"东南密、西北疏"的非均衡发展格局日益显著。奖牌总量的分布重心主要在皖、苏、豫、鲁4省空间范围内移动,奥运会奖牌分布差异主要受人力资源水平和体育管理水平的影响,不同地区主要影响因素及作用强度各异。     

财政政策、经营异质性与企业价值

财政政策作为企业经营的外部环境,对企业的经营行为与价值创造有着重要影响。然而,微观企业层面上财政政策究竟如何影响企业行为尚不明晰。本文从需求管理、财政融资和供给管理三个维度,建立了财政政策影响企业微观行为的分析框架,沿着前两个维度对中国制度背景下扩张性财政政策与企业价值之间的关系进行了理论分析和实证检验。研究发现:扩张性财政政策总体上增加了企业价值,在销售增长率较低、经营现金流更好、净资产收益率较低的企业中,价值增加效应更加显著;企业经营特质的调节作用在非国有企业中表现更为典型;中西部地区的财政政策微观表现为拉动效应,东部地区的微观表现为挤出效应。研究揭示,在微观层面上财政政策直接拉动效应在国有企业中更为显著,而乘数效应更多体现在非国有企业中。     

广州亚运绿色物流研究

广州亚运会日益临近,广州亚运会对物流工作提出了新的要求,我们需要在广州亚运会上贯彻绿色物流理念,在物流环节实现“绿色亚运”。本文通过对广州亚运会物流的分析。提出绿色物流在亚运会中的重要意义,并且对如何实现绿色物流提出一些建议,希望能对广州亚运会物流工作有一些帮助。     

奥运会各国获得奖牌数影响因素的实证分析

奥运会是各国体育实力的展示舞台,应该存在一些客观规律决定其成绩好坏.通过对第29届奥运会各国获得奖牌数的实证分析,发现经济实力和东道主效应两个因素对一个国家获得奥运会奖牌数有显著影响.其中,一个国家获得奥运会奖牌份额有50％以上能够由经济实力因素解释.     

奥运会各国获得奖牌数影响因素的实证分析

奥运会是各国体育实力的展示舞台，应该存在一些客观规律决定其成绩好坏。通过对第29届奥运会各国获得奖牌数的实证分析，发现经济实力和东道主效应两个因素对一个国家获得奥运会奖牌数有显著影响。其中，一个国家获得奥运会奖牌份额有50％以上能够由经济实力因素解释。     

父代教育水平、代际传递与子代基础教育不平等

基于中国教育追踪调查数据,采用OLS和多元有序logistics回归分析方法,本文研究了教育代际传递在初等教育阶段的显著性及作用机制。本文研究发现：初中阶段存在显著的教育代际传递效应,父母受教育水平对子女学业表现具有显著影响。父母最高受教育年限每增加1年,子女平均成绩提高0.322分。其中,城市父母受教育水平对子女学业表现的影响强度大于农村;父亲受教育水平对子女学业表现的影响大于母亲;随着子女平均成绩的提高,父母受教育水平对子女平均成绩的影响强度趋于下降,表明学业表现欠佳的“后进生”受父母教育水平的影响更大。进一步的中介效应检验表明,父母教育水平通过影响教育期望和教育投入作用于子女学业表现。父母对子女的教育期望、子女自身教育期望和亲子互动都具有部分中介作用,中介效应占总效应比重分别是45.067%、43.329%和0.939%。基于2020年中国家庭追踪调查数据对机制的再检验再次证实中介效应的显著性。因此,要重视初等教育资源的合理配置,对普通家庭的孩子进行适度的政策倾斜;父母要注重家庭文化资本建设,既要提高对子女的教育期望,也要增加对子女的陪伴,担当起子女成长中的“重要他人”角色。     

奥运与经济

2008年8月,全世界的目光都聚焦到北京奥运会上,中国代表团以51金、21银和28铜,总共100枚奖牌的成绩创下了参加奥运会以来的最好成绩。北京奥运会的成功,是中国人民和世界各国人民共同努力的结果。     

企业ESG表现对绿色创新的影响研究

“双碳”目标下,绿色创新是企业低碳转型和可持续发展的重要驱动力。本文选取2011-2019年中国A股上市公司作为研究样本,实证分析了企业ESG表现对绿色创新的影响机制,并进一步分析了数字化转型、市场竞争强度以及制度环境的调节作用。研究结果表明：(1)企业ESG表现可以促进绿色创新。(2)数字化转型、市场竞争强度以及制度环境在ESG表现和绿色创新关系中起到正向调节作用。进一步机制分析发现,企业声誉和权益融资成本在企业ESG表现与绿色创新关系中发挥中介效应;异质性分析发现,企业ESG表现对绿色创新的影响,在国有企业、位于我国东部地区的企业以及规模较大的企业中表现更为显著。本文研究丰富了企业ESG相关研究,对企业绿色创新管理和可持续发展提供参考借鉴。     

我国信托业资本配置效率影响因素研究——基于Wurgler与结构方程模型的分析

本文通过构建Wurgler与结构方程模型,对我国信托业资本配置效率的整体表现、变动趋势以及影响因素进行了分析,研究结果表明:自2007年以来,我国信托业资本配置效率始终处于有效状态,并在变动中表现出显著的倒U型趋势特征;在影响和制约信托业资本配置效率的因素中,行业与制度变迁因素的影响最为显著,宏观经济与环境因素的影响较为显著,企业微观因素的影响相对较小;我国信托业资本配置效率的改善是制度变迁和行业调整的必然结果,但宏观经济环境的恶化会抑制行业资本配置效率的进一步提高.现阶段,由于制度变迁的影响力在持续减弱,宏观经济环境短期难以转好,因而只有行业内部各企业有效改善股权结构,显著提高经营管理水平,才能遏制信托业资本配置效率的下滑势头,从而为信托业的持续、稳定、健康发展创造条件.     

善因营销中顾客信任对行为意向的影响研究

善因营销的成功与否绝大程度上取决于消费者态度,本研究主要探讨了顾客信任对消费者行为意向的影响机制.研究结果表明能力表现信任以及诚实善良信任对消费者行为意向都有显著的正向影响;消费者对善因营销活动的评价在顾客信任与行为意向之间发挥中介效应;诚实善良信任对于消费者善因营销评价有着非常大的影响作用,而能力表现信任对评价没有显著影响.     

MEN, MONEY, AND MEDALS: AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF THE OLYMPIC GAMES

Abstract.  Population size and the level of income per capita are major determinants of the number of medals won by a country in the 1952–2004 Olympic Games. A parsimonious count (Poisson) model fits the data very well: the squared correlation between the predicted value of the number of medals won and the observed value is about 56%. There exist strong country-specific effects in Olympic medals results. While the USA and China tend to outperform other countries relative to their size and income, the Asian dragons tend to under-perform in the Games.     

Olympic Games: No legacy for sports

Countries whose cities host the Summer Olympic Games increase significantly their success during the competition. We study whether such effect is lasting or not. We compute the effect of hosting on the total number of medals in the subsequent games. To confront the issue that the selection of the host city is endogenous, we use a natural counterfactual: countries whose cities also bid for the Olympics but were not selected by the International Olympic Committee. In all cases, we find that Olympic success on medals fades away immediately after hosting.     

A longitudinal assessment on the economic effects of hosting major sporting events

Hosting major sporting events (MSEs) has become a globalized strategy for many countries. This paper is to incorporate event study and dynamic panel data analysis with annual secondary data to examine and clarify the long-term economic effects of host countries that had hosted the Asian Games and the Olympic Games from 1950 to 2014. The results indicate that hosting MSEs to create positive economic effects like the real economic growth rate, investment, employment and international trade may be a myth even for developing countries. The evidences can provide the sport management or authority with longitudinal and comprehensive elaboration for biding or hosting MSEs in the future.     

Economic Development Indicators as Determinants of Medal Winning at the Sydney Olympics: An Extreme Bounds Analysis

This paper examines the variables that determine the performance of countries at the Olympic Games as measured by a weighted sum of the medals won at the Sydney 2000 Games. While previous studies have identified the importance of a country's economic size and the resources available to sport, this paper examines nine more variables including the number of athletes representing each nation and some development indicators. Based on 2310 regressions, both traditional and restricted extreme bounds analysis show that only two variables are robust: the number of athletes and national expenditure on health. Thus, the final model recognises four explanatory variables that include these two as well as GDP and population.     

Asian Participation and Performance at the Olympic Games

This paper examines Asian exceptionalism at the Olympics. Northeast Asian countries conform to the statistical norm, whereas the rest of Asia lags, but this result obscures underlying distinctions. Asian women do better than men. Non‐Northeast Asia's relative underperformance is due to the men. Asian performance is uneven across events, finding more success in culturally connected and weight‐stratified contests. The models imply that China, Japan, and South Korea will place among the top 10 medaling countries at the 2016 Games, whereas China will continue to close the medal gap with the United States.     

Migrant remittances and fertility

This study examines the role of migrants’ remittances in developing countries’ fertility transition. Employing an unbalanced panel of South Asian countries and controlling for various economic and socio-demographic factors, we find that remittances are significantly associated with a lower number of children born to women of childbearing age. This suggests the remittances’ substitution effect to be at play rather than the income effect, and may result from decreased need for children for financing the household’s future needs as well as from better access to healthcare and contraceptive methods available to migrant households. Remittances’ association with fertility appears to be more important than the transfer of fertility norms from migrants’ host countries. The monetary aspects of international migration may therefore be more important for the region’s demographic transition than social remittances.     

Do vertical spillovers differ by investors’ productivity? Theory and evidence from Vietnam

Developing countries are eager to host foreign direct investment to receive positive technology spillovers to their local firms. However, what types of foreign firms are desirable for the host country to achieve spillovers best? We address this question using firm‐level panel data from Vietnam to investigate whether foreign Asian investors in downstream sectors with different productivity affect the productivity of local Vietnamese firms in upstream sectors differently. Using endogenous structural breaks, we divide Asian investors into low‐, middle‐, and high‐productivity groups. The results suggest that the presence of the middle group has the strongest positive spillover effect. The differential spillover effects can be explained by a simple model with vertical linkages and productivity‐enhancing investment by local suppliers. The theoretical mechanism is also empirically confirmed.     

DOES SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAL RESEARCH REDUCE MACROECONOMIC VOLATILITY?

This paper explores whether conducting scientific and technical (S&T) research reduces the volatility of output growth. The paper finds robust evidence that output volatility is significantly lowered by a country's production of S&T publications. The results show that the effect of S&T publications on output volatility is particularly strong in middle‐income, OECD and other high‐income countries. However, for East‐Asian, low‐income and sub‐Saharan African countries the effect is either weak or absent. These results provide strong evidence that not only OECD and other high‐income countries are actively engaged in S&T research, emerging developing countries are also conducting S&T research, which is effective in reducing output volatility. The results are robust to adding a host of control variables, various subsamples and different estimation techniques.     

“丝绸之路经济带”沿线国国家风险评级与对策研究

为了使中国企业在“走出去”的过程中合理识别和评估东道国的国家风险,提高国家间投资合作的效率,本文以中资企业对外投资中面临的国家风险为主要研究对象,构建了中国对外直接投资国家风险评价体系。从投入产出角度,运用超效率DEA模型与Malmquist指数相结合的分析方法,从静态与动态的时间角度对2014—2018年“丝绸之路经济带”沿线国家风险进行实证分析。研究发现：从静态层面看,中南亚区域呈现较高的国家风险,我国应加强与东道国联系,重点关注东道国投资环境的变化;欧洲地区特别是中东欧国家更适合中国企业对外投资,合作规模有待进一步扩大;西亚地区投资风险两极分化,我国应密切关注高风险国家投资风险的隐患,并建立相应的补偿机制。从动态层面看,通过Malmquist指数分析可知,研究年份间“丝绸之路经济带”沿线国家风险在逐步改善,国家管理的整体趋势向着良好的方向发展。基于分析结果,本文提出了相关的政策建议。     

FINANCIAL INTEGRATION IN EAST ASIAN EQUITY MARKETS

Abstract.  This paper examines the degree of financial integration that exists in East Asian equity markets using the International Capital Asset Pricing Model methodology. We employ three market portfolios to test for integration: the weighted average equity index of all sample countries, the Japanese market index and the US market index. The study shows that the level of financial efficiency and the integration of sample countries is high and has improved significantly during 1991 to 2005, and they are more financially integrated within the region and with the Asian leading market (Japan) than with the world leading market (the USA).