欧元信用危机与出路

一旦欧洲中央银行利用债务货币化的方式去救助区内成员国的主权债务危机,欧洲中央银行就陷入成员国竞争性财政支出——主权债务危机的恶性循环。这种恶性循环的结果必将不断侵蚀欧元之信用,从而引发更大的危机——欧元信用危机。毫无疑问,相比欧债危机,欧元信用危机对世界经济、国际金融市场乃至欧元区各成员国的共同利益的影响要大得多,后果也严重得多。     

谁将是下一个塞浦路斯

2013年春天,塞浦路斯成为2009年底希腊危机以来第五个在主权债务危机中倒下的欧元区成员国。从3月16日塞浦路斯与国际纾困债权人(欧盟委员会、欧洲央行和国际货币基金组织)达成初始救助协议,到3月25日欧元区集团峰会批准对塞浦路斯总额为100亿欧元     

欧元诞生、欧债危机及纾困博弈路径

由欧元诞生的过程及欧元本身的缺陷,引出欧债危机爆发的必然性.从希腊、西班牙、葡萄牙、意大利、爱尔兰和塞浦路斯欧元区六个危机国视角出发,基于债务发生的原因、救助措施及救助效果,综述欧洲主权债务危机的演进过程.欧债危机纾困现状表明:希腊等高债务国退出欧元区的威胁不可信;仅是救助机制不能根本解决欧债危机和恢复经济发展;高债务国支持的共同债券和经济良好国家支持的统一财政成为进一步解决危机的有效措施.在三个假设的基础上,运用三部子博弈完美纳什均衡分析法展示债务双方在财政统一和共同债券博弈中的合作路径.     

谁将是下一个塞浦路斯

2013年春天,塞浦路斯成为2009年底希腊危机以来第五个在主权债务危机中倒下的欧元区成员国。从3月16日塞浦路斯与国际纾困债权人（欧盟委员会、欧洲央行和国际货币基金组织）达成初始救助协议,到3月25日欧元区集团峰会批准对塞浦路斯总额为100亿欧元的纾困计划,再到4月3日国际货币基金组织同意承担100亿欧元救助款中的10亿欧元,由塞浦路斯银行业危机再度激起的欧元区主权债务危机波澜逐渐回复平静。不知是巧合,还是魔咒使然,欧债危机的发展轨迹惊人相似,3年多来每年春天都会有欧元区成员国被卷入危机的漩涡之中。明年又会是谁呢？     

7500亿难以“止血”欧洲债务危机

2009年12月全球三大评级公司下调希腊主权评级,拉开了希腊主权债务危机的序幕。进而又演变成欧洲主权债务危机,欧元兑美元大幅下跌,严重影响欧洲经济。2010年5月10日,欧盟批准总额高达7500亿欧元的援助计划以抗击危机,震惊世界。此次史上最大救助机制能否挽救希腊,挽救欧洲？     

7500亿难以"止血"欧洲债务危机

2009年12月全球三大评级公司下调希腊主权评级,拉开了希腊主权债务危机的序幕.进而又演变成欧洲主权债务危机,欧元兑美元大幅下跌,严重影响欧洲经济.2010年5月10日,欧盟批准总额高达7500亿欧元的援助计划以抗击危机,震惊世界.此次史上最大救助机制能否挽救希腊,挽救欧洲?     

欧债危机成因与前景的制度分析

希腊等欧元区国家的主权债务危机可以说是欧洲区域一体化建设中的独特现象,其折射的是欧元区所存在的一个结构性问题：奉行单一货币政策和各国分散的财政政策,集中暴露出了欧洲货币一体化与欧洲福利资本主义的不相容、以及统一货币运行所要求的财政紧缩与欧元成员国经济增长和福利制度之间的矛盾与冲突;欧元不会就此瓦解,但欧债问题的最终解决困难重重;欧元的未来取决于自由与市场的回归欧洲,取决于欧盟的制度完善与欧式福利资本主义改革的成功与否。     

欧洲主权债务危机的成因和发展的四个方向

2010年5月10日,欧盟各国元首与财政部长紧急磋商,推出了7500亿欧元救助基金,旨在挽救正在进行中的欧洲债务危机.这次债务危机始于2009年底,全球三大评级公司先后几次下调了希腊、葡萄牙和西班牙的主权债务等级,由此引爆了欧洲的主权债务危机.     

欧债危机中的非经济因素

经济领域中的任何一种危机都与政治因素息息相关。欧洲债务危机亦然。这一危机对欧盟成员国的大选、政治力量的对比、欧盟的国际声望、欧洲一体化的前景以及欧盟成员国之间的权力分配都产生了重大的影响。大选:紧缩vs.福利欧洲债务危机对各国的大选产生了重要的影响。自希腊债务危机爆发以来,欧盟成员国共     

欧元区危机的根源探析

自2009年以来,欧债危机已给欧元区人们带来了巨大的经济损失,并产生了强烈的心理恐慌.而为防止欧元体系的崩溃,欧盟业已出台了诸多应急方案.以历次欧盟特别首脑会议为例,2010年10月欧盟推出了一份旨在强化欧盟经济治理的特别报告;2011年3月又通过了"升级版欧元公约";同年10月欧盟就欧洲金融稳定基金(EFSF)的规模扩大至1万亿欧元达成协议并再次给予希腊1000亿欧元的救助贷款.诸此种种无不影射出欧元区危机的严重性与旷日持久性.     

浅析欧债危机对中国外贸的影响及对策

欧盟是我国第一大贸易伙伴和第一大出口市场.随着欧债危机持续恶化,欧债危机已经席卷整个欧元区,由希腊蔓延至西班牙、意大利等国.在这场经济风暴中,我国对欧洲的产品出口也受到严重的影响.通过分析欧债危机的现状和原因,我们发现此次危机对我国对欧贸易的影响主要体现在欧元汇率、欧洲市场需求的萎缩和欧洲市场挤出效应等方面.欧元汇率持续下跌,给以欧元作为结算单位的中国企业带来很大的汇兑风险,许多中小企业出口利润都淹没在汇率风险中.而欧洲市场需求的萎缩和欧洲市场挤出效应使我国的对欧贸易严重受挫.我国外销企业只有及时调整产业结构、不断开拓市场和防范汇率波动风险,才能抵御欧债危机的影响.     

The Euro Area,a Stressful Monetary Union? Learning from Newspapers’ Monetary Policy Coverage

Through a textual analysis of national newspaper articles covering European central bankers’ statements and policy decisions from 1999 to 2011, I derive the concerns expressed by national media in the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). I consider these concerns as a benchmark for national preferences, and thus for the preferences of national central bankers in the EMU. I also test the existence of groups of national media (i.e., national publics) according to their shared expressed concerns. The results show that in the euro zone, similar concerns are shared by different country groups, corresponding to a group of countries from Northern Europe (Belgium, Finland, and the Netherlands), Southern Europe (Spain and Portugal), and the Periphery (Italy, Greece, and Ireland), but that there are two isolated countries (France and Germany), whose newspapers do not share the issues raised by the rest of the European newspapers. This approach provides further insights into the potential heterogeneity of the European central bankers inside the Governing Council of the ECB in terms of policy preferences.     

Real convergence in Europe: A cluster analysis

In this paper we analyse real convergence in GDP per worker in the EU member states. The aim is to test whether there is evidence of club convergence in the EU, i.e. divergence in GDP per worker. Evidence in favour of cluster or club convergence may be an indication of significant productivity divergences between countries, which may also explain the current turmoil in the euro zone. The results show evidence of different economic growth rates within Europe, which also converge to different steady states, implying divergence in the EU-14. Within the EU-14 member states we observe two convergence clubs, which are not related to the fact that some countries belong to the euro area. Furthermore, Eastern European countries are also divided in two clubs, with a more direct effect of belonging to the euro zone in the composition of the clubs.     

Fact and Fiction in EU‐Governmental Economic Data

Abstract. To detect manipulations or fraud in accounting data, auditors have successfully used Benford's law as part of their fraud detection processes. Benford's law proposes a distribution for first digits of numbers in naturally occurring data. Government accounting and statistics are similar in nature to financial accounting. In the European Union (EU), there is pressure to comply with the Stability and Growth Pact criteria. Therefore, like firms, governments might try to make their economic situation seem better. In this paper, we use a Benford test to investigate the quality of macroeconomic data relevant to the deficit criteria reported to Eurostat by the EU member states. We find that the data reported by Greece shows the greatest deviation from Benford's law among all euro states.     

An evaluation of the equilibrium value of the euro,its predecessors and their constituent currencies based on economic fundamentals

This study presents constructed equilibrium exchange rates (EERs) of the euro and its predecessors the European Unit of Account and the European Currency Unit, as well as the euro’s member states using a relative version of purchasing power parity (PPP) equilibrium. The revealed patterns of over- and undervaluation demonstrate how well suited the northern member states, in contrast to the southern states, were for the monetary union. Moreover, a relative persistent overvaluation for Greece and Portugal suggests that their ambition to join the euro reduced their competitiveness. The constructed EERs of the euro suggest the European Commission was able to set the initial value of the euro with a high degree of accuracy. Furthermore, the EERs indicate a successive strengthening of the fundamental value of the euro versus the U.S. dollar from 1999 to 2015. The analysis shows a close correlation between the deviations from equilibrium and the events of Greece’s sovereign debt crisis. In addition, the presented graphs show strong support for the PPP hypothesis. The results are robust to different constructed EERs and offer a guide to international market participants interested in the general equilibrium path of the euro and its predecessors.     

Spatial heterogeneity and interregional spillovers in the European Union: Do cohesion policies encourage convergence across regions?

Using a spatial econometric perspective, the speed of convergence for a sample of 163 regions of the European Union (EU) over the period 1981–1996 is estimated. For this purpose, we use a specification strategy which allows an explicit modeling of both spatial heterogeneity and spatial autocorrelation found in the analyzed sample. The estimated final model combines groupwise heterocedasticity, the identification of two spatial regimes and spatial dependence. Our results show how an appropriate consideration of the role of spatial effects can shed new insights into the European convergence process. We find that regions in the EU cohesion-fund countries (Ireland, Greece, Portugal and Spain) are converging separately from the rest of regions of the EU. Our estimations indicate that over the analyzed period, there was a faster conditional convergence in relative income levels of the regions belonging to Cohesion countries (5.3%) than in the rest of the regions of the EU (3.3%). Therefore, our results contrast with other evidence that points to the fact that the convergence process in Europe has weakened or even has stopped at the beginning of the 1980s. Moreover, our work shows clear evidence of separate spatial convergence clubs among EU regions.     

EU Eligibility,Central Europe,and the Invention of Applicant State Narrative

This article is about changing regional understandings in Europe and how those changed understandings reflect and shape contemporary geopolitical arrangements in the context of the eastward enlargement of the EU. It is argued in the article that two interrelated questions form the basis of the identity assumption of the eastern enlargement of the Union. First, where Europe's eastern boundary lies, and, second, how the eastern boundary is connected to the region-building, identity formation and moral language within the EU both at national and supranational scales. Special emphasis is given to a national moral language rather than to a supranational one, since, as argued in the article, national and European identities do not need to be mutually exclusive phenomena, but can bolster each other. The boundary between the EU and the 'East' is formed particularly through the national identity politics of the post-communist states applying for membership, and boundary drawing is a result of the 'European criteria' set down by the EU as well as the communist experience of the applicant states. It became a spatial strategy for the post-communist applicant states to locate themselves in historical and geographical Central Europe - the imagined moral heart of Europe - by separating themselves from the signifier 'East' in order to gain recognition as European in the early 1990s. This new narrative is argued to be particularly important for the post-Cold War national identity projects of the applicant states.     

Modelling industrial new orders

This article models industrial new orders across the European Union (EU) countries for various breakdowns. A common modelling framework exploits soft (business opinion surveys) as well as hard data (industrial turnover). The estimates show for about 200 cases that the model determinants significantly help in explaining new orders' monthly growth rates. An alternative estimation method, different model specifications and out-of-sample and real-time forecasting all show that the model results are robust. We present real-time outcomes of a European Central Bank (ECB) indicator on industrial new orders at an aggregated euro area level. This indicator is largely based on national new orders data and on estimates yielded by the model for those countries that no longer report new orders at the national level. Finally, we demonstrate the leading content of the ECB indicator on euro area new orders for industrial production.