Critical issues suggested by trends in food,population, and the environment to the year 2020

This article reviews the emerging trends in global food supply and demand up to 2020, and discusses policy challenges and obstacles to meeting this demand. Data were obtained from the International Food Policy Research Institute's International Model for Policy Analysis of Commodities and Trade (Rosegrant et al.). The country-specific data pertains to 37 countries and regions and 17 food commodities and prices in the world market. Cereal prices are expected to decline by about 11% by 2020; meat prices may decline by 6%. After 2010, cereal prices are expected to dramatically decline. Cereal demand will change with changes in income and urbanization. Maize and coarse grains will be replaced by wheat and rice. Life style changes may lead to a switch from rice to wheat. Growth in food consumption in developed countries will slow. A projected 82% of growth in global cereal consumption and almost 90% of increased global meat demand will occur in developing countries during 1993-2020. Asia alone will account for 48% of increased cereal consumption and 61% of increased meat consumption. 88% of food production growth will occur in developing countries through increased yields and 94% in developed countries. World trade in cereals will increase from an estimated 185 million metric tons annually to 328 million during 1993-2020. Food security for the poor and child malnutrition will remain unimproved. Yield growth is affected by agricultural research, fertilizer and energy use, land degradation, water scarcity, and bad policy. Water scarcity is the most limiting on yield growth. Malnutrition problems present multiple challenges.     

Adoption of agricultural land management technologies by smallholder farmers in the Jos Plateau,Nigeria

Against a background of growing concern about the adverse effects of agricultural land degradation due to accelerated soil erosion, nutrient depletion and high population pressure, farmers in the Jos Plateau, Nigeria have adopted biological and structural land management practices, though the degree of adoption of such practices varies from one farm household to another. This study, based on a survey of 150 farm households, employed a stepwise multiple linear regression model to analyse the factors significantly influencing the adoption of land management technologies. The results of the analysis revealed four variables, namely, extension service, agricultural labour force, accelerated soil erosion and out-migration, explaining nearly 90% of the variation in the range of land management technologies adopted. The first three of these variables have positive influences on adoption. Extension service appeared to be the strongest, impacting on skills in the agricultural labour force. Policy recommendations are made in line with the findings of the analysis.     

以改革促管理 以管理促发展

系统地论述了新时期国有森工企业发展管理模式创新,并阐述了创新取得的成效和意义,及其如何促进企业经济良性发展。     

转机建制增活力 改革创新谋发展--大兴安岭林业集团公司西林吉林业局林场改革情况调查

林场改革是大兴安岭实施生态保护工程 ,落实“四大战役”的一项重要工作。西林吉林业局立足转换经营机制 ,以深化改革、减负增盈为重点 ,以活化企业机制为目的 ,实施整体规划、分步实施、因场施策、全面搞活的改革     

创新经营管理机制大力发展民营林业

党的十六大明确指出 :“必须毫不动摇地鼓励、支持和引导非公有制经济发展”。这为引入民间资本 ,发展民营林业指明了方向。近年来 ,无论是森工企业还是地方林业 ,不断创新经营管理机制 ,通过政策引导、典型示范 ,在发展民营林业上进行了大胆实践探索 ,积累了一定的经验 ,以民营林业为代表的非公有制林业已显示出旺盛的生机与活力。黑龙江省宾县全县6 77万hm2荒山、荒坡全部实现了民营 ,森林覆盖率提高了7 3个百分点 ,昔日的光秃山地披上了绿装。造林投入比由过去国家 :个体的9 6∶0 4变成现在的2 8∶7 2。1 发展民营林业的探索与实践黑龙江…