东亚经济一体化可行性的分析

在全球化和区域化不断发展的国际政治经济环境下,欧盟和北美自由贸易区向东亚各国的一体化提供了示范效应,同时也提出了迫切的要求。因此,要实现东亚经济的长期发展,东亚经济的一体化已经成为关键因素。本文通过对东亚经济一体化可行性的分析,为以后的发展提出了思路,指出了在以后发展中要着重克服的问题。     

基于多元治理的东亚经济一体化发展路径研究

东亚经济一体化是实现东亚地区经济长期稳定发展的关键因素,从治理理论视角看,为创建一个主权共享、互利共赢、共同发展的政治与经济联合体,加强成员国间的互信与合作是东亚经济一体化发展的第一步,建设具有约束力的条约机制是处理各国利益合理分配的重要条件。而成员国的适度授权是实行区域共同治理的前提,是建立一个拥有共同价值观和共同事业的管理体系的重要组成部分。     

Food Security in Asia

Rapid economic and agricultural sector growth have enhanced greatly food security in Asia during the past three decades. Most studies suggest this positive trend will continue into the next century. This paper reviews past trends and future prospects in access and availability of food in Asia at the national level. The paper concludes that the positive overall trend in increased food security relies on the capacity of Asian economies to address several key policy issues, including sustained economic growth, population pressure, structural changes in domestic economies, shifts in international comparative advantage, technological changes, developments in the domestic and international food markets, and environmental sustainability. The paper identifies cost-effective ways to increase food security in light of these issues and suggests that Asia's food security can be maintained only if international and domestic policies, institutional frameworks, and public expenditure patterns are conducive to cost–effective and sustainable agriculture development.     

新疆与中亚地区经贸关系的战略思考

本文依据传统的比较优势理论和现代的新贸易理论,认为新疆与中亚地区经贸关系既要重视比较优势的作用,充分发挥比较优势和有利的地缘优势,又要从长远出发,在中亚区域经济合作中争取有利的规模经济优势,逐步建立在中亚市场的竞争优势。以此为思路,提出了新疆与中亚地区经贸关系的战略目标、重点和对策。     

中国在东亚国际垂直专业分工体系中的地位与政策选择

文章通过分析东亚国际垂直分工体系的形成与发展,评价了中国在东亚分工体系中的地位,认为促进区域经济一体化、加快比较优势的转化及提高吸收能力可以促使中国在东亚国际垂直化分工体系中获得更多的分工利益。     

Determinants of bond market development in Asia

One of the major reasons behind the Asian financial crisis in 1997 was the excessive dependence of the Asian economies on commercial banks for domestic financing. The region failed to diversify its sources of corporate financing as it relied mainly on banks since its other types of financing, namely bond markets, were still underdeveloped and their sizes were quite small. On the other hand, the 2008 global financial crisis and the ongoing European debt crisis have led to constraints in acquiring local currency and foreign currency liquidity in the corporate sector in Asia as foreign banks withdrew investments from Asia. Furthermore, Asia needs large long term capital (US$ 750 billion per year for 2010–2020) for developing infrastructure connectivity within and across its economies. Local and regional capital can be channeled for long-term infrastructure projects and other productive investment through bond markets. Having a well-developed local currency bond markets can enhance the resilience of domestic financial sector to external shocks and it can facilitate better intermediation of savings into productive investments in Asia. To enhance corporate bond financing, it is important to examine factors that affect the effective development of bond markets in Asia. The study attempts to identify the determinants of bond market development in Asian economies through examining the relationship of bond issuance with selected key financial and economic factors. It also intends to provide policy recommendations for the further development of the Asian bond market. Major determinants for bond market development in Asia include the size of an economy, the stage of economic development, the openness of an economy, the exchange rate variability, the size of the banking system, and interest rate variability.     

Productivity and Comparative Advantage in Rice Agriculture in South‐East Asia Since 1870*

Rice long dominated the agricultural economies of South‐East Asia. Given the economic predominance of agriculture, the development of rice production had a significant bearing on the economies in the region. This article explains why the countries of mainland South‐East Asia long dominated the international rice market. It quantifies labor productivity in rice production and argues that simple, low‐cost and labor‐extensive, but low‐yielding production technology allowed farmers in mainland South‐East Asia to achieve significantly higher levels of labor product‐ivity than in the more densely populated rice‐producing areas in South‐East Asia and Japan. High levels of labor productivity were a major source of comparative advantage in rice production for Burma, Thailand and Southern Vietnam.     

论中国外贸发展的战略选择

伴随着经济全球化的推进,国际贸易在经济发展中的作用不可同日而语,国际市场竞争变得愈加激烈,其形式、内容也发生了深刻的变化。长期指导我国外贸战略的比较优势贸易理论已不再适应国际、国内经济形势的变化,并制约着经济的快速发展。因此,我国应逐步淡出比较优势战略,而选择以竞争优势为主导的贸易发展战略。     

东亚经济一体化与合作：朝向共同体

长期以来,东亚地区的经济一体化主要靠市场力量推动,区域经济合作则落后于经济一体化进程。亚洲金融危机证明,仅靠市场推动的经济一体化是脆弱的,只有加强区域经济合作,东亚地区才能增强抵御外部风险的能力,保持经济的持续繁荣。亚洲金融危机后,东亚地区迅速建立起“10 3”的合作机制,在加强金融领域合作的同时,也不断拓展在经贸投资等领域的合作,并逐步确立了以建立东亚自由贸易区和东亚共同体的长远奋斗目标。特别是在中国提出与东盟建立自由贸易区后,东亚地区的合作步伐明显加快。尽管目前离建立东亚共同体的长远目标还很遥远,但东亚地区的合作进程已不可逆转,各种形式的合作努力将最终推动长远目标的实现。     

Corporate Restructuring and Leveraged Buyouts in the Asia Pacific 1980–2010

Leveraged buyout markets in the Asia Pacific have grown substantially since the 1980s and now play an important role in the market for corporate control. This paper undertakes an international comparative analysis of the emergence and growth of leveraged buyout firms in the Asia Pacific and their role in corporate restructuring, with a focus on Australia, Japan and South Korea. Three distinct periods in the development of these markets are identified. The paper highlights the importance of state involvement and changes in domestic economic policy around financial crises, where governments created new rules to facilitate buyouts as an organisational restructuring solution to distressed companies.     

Trade Reform and Manufacturing Pricing Behavior in Four Archetype Asia‐Pacific Economies*

General equilibrium models are constructed of four Asia‐Pacific economies that differ according to their levels of development, the comparative sizes of their manufacturing sectors and their patterns of comparative advantage and trade protection. The countries chosen are Australia, an industrialized importer of manufactures; Japan, an industrialized exporter; the Philippines, a developing importer; and the Republic of Korea, a developing exporter. Manufacturing industries are characterized as comprising identical oligopolistic firms producing homogeneous goods that are differentiated from competing imports. Oligopoly behavior notwithstanding, trade reforms are found to yield conventional results in that net economic gains are small while implicit transfers are substantial. More competitive (non‐collusive) pricing by oligopolistic firms, which might be achieved through reform of competition law and trade practices surveillance, yields larger net gains and these gains tend to accrue to all domestic primary factors. Such reforms also yield substantial interaction between oligopoly behavior and economic and industrial structure.     

比较经济优势变化与中日经济关系转型--兼析日本得自中国经济崛起的利益

恢复邦交正常化30年来，中日经济关系获得了迅速发展，目前又到了重要转型期。促使中日经济关系转型的重要原因是中日比较经济优势的变化。90年代以来日本经济始终处于萧条或衰退之中，由此也对中日经济关系发展造成了多重阻碍；而中国经济则长期保持着快速增长势头，由此也对中日经济关系发展形成了多方推动。中国经济的持续快速增长还对日本经济本身产生了多方面的积极作用，夸大中国经济崛起对日本威胁的“中国威胁论”具有明显片面性。     

战后日本经济发展模式评析

东亚经济发展进程是一个有机整体,是各国(地区)经济发展运动的内在迭加形成了东亚地区现代化发展的总绩效和总趋势。因此,东亚经济发展模式既是一个加速东亚地区经济增长的内在整体,也囊括了各国(地区)经济增长的若干范示。日本经济是东亚经济发展的引擎,其成功的发展模式颇具典型意义,对我国经济加速发展具有重要的启迪。     

东亚经济一体化与中国的应对策略

为应对地缘政治时代过渡到地缘经济时代后全球范围内区域经济一体化的潮流,东亚国家需要积极推动本地区的经济一体化。在此进程中中国应有明确的应对策略。要有长期的系统的国际区域经济合作战略,注意所参加的几个国际区域合作组织的相互协调与补充;应支持东盟发挥主导作用,同时要推动中、日、韩的合作。还应充分利用区域经济合作中的要素推动国内区域经济协调发展。     

“雁行模式”与中国区域经济发展

从20世纪60～90年代初期,东亚各国在经济发展中形成了产业链条比较完整的"雁行模式",其在东亚各国的经济提升中作用明显。而在当前的中国区域经济发展中也出现了较为明显的不平衡性,这种经济发展的层次性及地区资源禀赋的差异性与当年的东亚有相当多的相似之处。所以,中国的区域发展战略可以借鉴"雁行模式"的成功经验,同时也要吸取其中教训,从而使中国各区域实现较快的次第起飞。     

东北亚区域经济合作与东北地区经济振兴

本文分析了东北地区参与东北亚区域经济合作所具有的比较优势及现状,提出东北地区应通过能源合作、绿色农产品出口、产业升级、国际劳务合作、旅游资源开发等方面积极参与东北亚区域经济合作,从而加速东北地区经济振兴。     

中美经济增长长期趋势的比较及经济弹性分析

首先,根据国民经济增长的历史数据,对中美两国自1970年以来的国民经济增长总体趋势进行了描述和比较分析,阐述了其长期经济增长变化的特点。其次,利用非线性弹性分析的方法建立了经济弹性分维模型,对中美两国经济增长的长期波动情况加以实证研究,发现了投资与财政对于两国长期经济增长的拟周期性的一些规律,揭示了不确定性条件下存在的宏观政策机制。最后,面对当今的世界经济危机。提出了实施有效的宏观经济政策的对策建议,坚持拉动需求,必须刺激消费和鼓励竞争,繁荣市场,构建和谐社会,以维持国民经济的稳定增长。     

Asia's evolving role in global wine markets

Over the past decade Hong Kong and China have become far more important to the world's wine markets, while Southeast Asia's imports of fine wine continue to grow steadily. This paper reviews recent developments in the light of comparative advantage theory before drawing on a model of global wine markets to project developments in Asia and elsewhere over the next five years under various economic growth, real exchange rate, and policy assumptions. It concludes that China is set to continue to be by far the most dominant player in Asia, and to change global markets for wines dramatically, just as it has been doing and will continue to do for so many other products.     

Can East Asia rise again?

In recent times, the economies of East Asia have been confronted by two major economic recessions, the first caused by the East Asian financial crisis, and the second by the slump in the ‘new economy.’ The causes of these two recessions, their scope and their influences differ significantly and during these periods of economic downturn the economies affected have adopted various monetary policies aimed at reducing interest rates and tax rates, and pursuing the expansion of government expenditure. However, these policies have obviously not yet been as effective as expected.This paper sets out to determine those factors affecting the possibility of East Asia rising again from the recent economic slump, a slump which has stemmed from excessive investment in the electronics and information industries. The paper begins with an overview of the East Asian economy, with particular reference to the recent serious decline following the steady recovery from the East Asian financial crisis and a review of the measures taken to counter it. Proposals are then made with regard to a number of lessons to be learned from the recent slump.There are three major issues involved in the question of whether East Asia can rise again from the current economic slump. First of all, many of the economies of East Asia have tried their utmost to upgrade their industrial structures from labor- to technology-intensive, or towards a knowledge-based economy and, to some extent, have actually been quite successful in achieving their goals. Secondly, almost all of the East Asian economies have paid particular attention to educational development, with many families having sent their children to foreign countries to receive advanced education in the hope that when they return they can make a substantial contribution to the progress of their home economies—examples of this trend are provided by Taiwan and India. Thirdly, there are abundant natural resources in East Asia along with rich sources of manpower with a hard-working spirit; these two factors can create comparative advantages and strengthen the competitiveness of these economies.In view of the recent developments towards regionalism, it is imperative for the economies of East Asia to form an East Asian Community in the near future, and many of the economies in this region are currently endeavoring to realize this vision, despite many obstacles still facing East Asia which will ultimately need to be overcome.     

中亚金融中心区位选择研究

近年来,基于对本地区经济、金融发展的考虑,全国30多个省市积极筹建不同层次的金融中心,特别是＂新丝绸之路经济带＂的建设更是掀起了新一轮中亚金融中心建设的热议。究竟什么样的城市具有国际金融中心的条件,本文通过对国内外有关国际金融中心研究现状的梳理及对著名的国际金融中心发展历史的归纳总结,认为经济实力、金融集聚、地理位置及政府支持是促成国际金融中心形成的最核心因素。在此基础上通过乌鲁木齐与西安的比较分析,认为乌鲁木齐更具有建设中亚金融中心的综合优势。为此,乌鲁木齐应利用＂新丝绸之路经济带＂建设的有利时机,通过建立中亚融资中心、中亚清算中心、中亚金融市场中心和中亚外汇交易中心来实现乌鲁木齐中亚金融中心的目标。