Crises in Asia: Historical perspectives and implications

The paper analyzes the stylized features of historical crisis episodes for 21 developing Asian economies over 1961–2007. The paper finds that while there is substantial diversity, on average, recessions and financial downturns are more frequent, longer lasting, and more severe in Asia than in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries. The paper also finds that the likelihood and severity of a recession tends to increase when it is associated with credit crunches or stock market crashes. Severe financial downturns or recessions in the global economy are often coupled with financial crises or recessions in Asia. In view of the current global crisis and severe financial downturns, Asian economies are expected to experience a severe recession in 2009.     

东亚区域经济整合的机遇与挑战——第九届“东亚经济合作论坛”综述

2005年11月24～25日,第九届“东亚经济合作论坛”在广西南宁市举办。本次论坛由综合开发研究院(中国·深圳)和日本综合研究开发机构共同主办,并得到了广西壮族自治区政府的大力支持。本次论坛的主题是“东亚区域经济整合:地区发展的新机遇”。来自日本、泰国、越南、菲律宾、新     

Economic growth in Asia: Determinants and prospects

Using a growth accounting framework, we find that developing Asia grew rapidly over the past three decades mainly due to robust growth in capital accumulation. The contributions of education and total factor productivity in the region's past economic growth remain relatively limited. We also make long-run growth projections for developing Asia by combining the growth accounting framework with growth regression approach. Our baseline projections based on the model of conditional convergence show that the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rates of the 12 developing Asian economies covered by this paper will be consistently lower for the next two decades than their historical performance. However, policy reforms in education, property rights, and research and development can substantially raise GDP growth in the region and partly offset the slowdown in growth caused by the convergence phenomenon. Even under the baseline scenario, the region's share in the world economy will increase from the current 34 percent in 2009 to close to a half in 2030.     

经济全球化中的东亚经济合作

1.经济全球化与区域化 20世纪80年代中期以来,随着以信息技术为核心的新技术革命的迅猛发展和以外国直接投资为载体的国际分工的不断深化,商品、资本、技术、知识等要素在全球范围内自由流动的速度大大加快,世界各国及各地区之间在经济上的相互依存关系空前紧密,世界经济日益融合成为一个有机的统一体.所谓经济全球化,便是上述过程的深化和发展.     

Behavioral and empirical perspectives on FDI: International capital allocation across Asia

We investigate Asia's recent experience in international capital allocation through flows of foreign direct investment. A calibrated general equilibrium model with a new capital flow modelling component is applied to highlight underlying relationships between a Heckscher-Ohlin (labor and capital) endowment perspective and such considerations as human capital, productivity, endogenous growth, and institutional behavior. Our results support the argument that all these factors played a role in Asia's recent growth, to different degrees in different countries, with complex relationships to investment incentives. In addition, new directions for further research in the FDI-growth linkages policy area are identified.     

经济史：历史观与方法论

本文是对经济史学理论的研究。全文分两部分。第一部分谈历史观,回 溯经济史学史,介绍西方的历史哲学,比较中西方的历史观,探究理性发展的道路,对理性主义作了反思。第二部分着重探讨经济史方法论问题,其中包括实证主义与相关问题、经济学理论与经济史研究、结构主义和整体史观、经济计量学方法、新制度学派经济史理论,并阐发了经济发展、制度变迁和社会与文化思想变迁的关系。     

The Economic Position of Women in Asia

This article surveys the literature on the economic position of women in Asian countries. Statistics show that the relative position of women improves with economic development. A negative income effect on women's economic participation in the paid workforce results in an inverse U-shaped relationship between female participation rate and economic development. Cultural influences affect the degree of discrimination against women, and these vary between countries. China and Australia illustrate the potentially moderating role of government policy on gender discrimination.     

Economic integration in northeast Asia: Preconditions and possible trajectories

When in November 2001, the leaders of the Southeast Asian and Northeast Asian states met for the “ASEAN (Association of South East Asian Nations) plus three (China, Japan and Korea),” President Kim Dae‐Jung of South Korea proposed the exploration for an East Asian Free Trade Area (EAFTA) and thereby opened a new chapter of East Asian integration. The special Northeast Asian perspective on regional co‐operation became clear by the simultaneous decision to hold annual meetings of finance and trade ministers of China, Japan and Korea. At the same time, bilateral agreements, like a free trade area between Japan and Singapore, the tentative large free trade area between ASEAN and China and the work‐in‐progress on a Korean‐Japanese Free Trade Area, show the devotion and sometimes even obsession of current policy‐making with reaching regional trade agreements. Regional integration, it seems, is finally on the Northeast Asian agenda. In this paper, the preconditions and perspectives of economic integration in Northeast Asia will be explored. Since economic integration is in various ways linked to political factors, the second section discusses the geo‐political situation of Northeast Asia today. The third section deals with the economic perspectives of different forms of trade integration, followed by an analysis of various attempts for greater macro‐economic and financial co‐operation and a short conclusion.     

中国作为经济大国的崛起及其对亚洲的影响

中国作为经济大国的崛起对其它亚洲国家(地区)经济的影响很大.在其它亚洲国家(地区)看来,中国一方面是一个有潜力的市场和对外直接投资的理想场所,另一方面也是出口市场中的竞争对手.一般来说,贸易结构同中国互补的高收入国家(地区)可能会从中获益,而同中国竞争的低收入国家(地区)则会受到损失.     

东亚经济一体化及东北亚经济合作前景

在东亚地区推进正式的经济一体化的可能性在增大.亚洲金融危机以后,日本一新加坡EPA等双边自由贸易协定谈判,以及东盟+3(即10+3)体制,从多方面进行着经济一体化的活动,而且2001年11月在文莱举行的第五届东盟+3首脑会议上,韩国的金大中总统建议把东亚自由贸易区作为长期目标加以推进.     

Special Issue in Economic History

The Editors of Oxford Economic Papers invite submissions fora Special Issue of     

A Game Model of Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation

This paper explores the evolution of Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) from 1988, when Australia first proposed it, to the present day. The analysis follows the tradition of the game theory of international politics and utilizes a variant of the scenario bundle mehod of Reinhard Selten (1977). The model explains APEC as an informal process rather than a full blown international organization, and why ASEAN is the decisive player in Pacific cooperation. An analysis of historical events since the creation of APEC leads to the hypothesis that an OECD style organization, which Australia had originally hoped for, will not be established in the foreseeable future.     

谈谈经济史研究方法问题

我们说经济史是一门交叉学科。其实没有这个学科。搞经济史的不是学历史出身，就是学经济出身。这就很自然地形成两个学派：学历史出身的注重史料考证，学经济出身的重视理论分析。这两种研究方法都好，可并行发展；两派比一派好，可互相促进。但就每个研究者说，不妨有自己的看法。