动态购买力平价理论与检验

长期以来,学术界对购买力平价理论的理解基本上都停留在静态表述上．本文给出了购买力平价理论动态表述,并在“各国可贸易品价格具有相同变化趋势”前提条件下,建立了一个理论模型对这个理论进行证明,给出了其成立的前提条件。然后我们分别运用东亚国家在1970～1996年间数据和国际比较项目组(ICP)所提供的世界各国数据,对动态购买力平价理论进行了检验,结果表明,动态购买力平价理论是基本成立的。     

Purchasing Power Parity and the Taylor Rule

It is well known that there is a large degree of uncertainty around Rogoff's consensus half‐life of the real exchange rate. To obtain a more efficient estimator, we develop a system method that combines the Taylor rule and a standard exchange rate model to estimate half‐lives. Further, we propose a median unbiased estimator for the system method based on the generalized method of moments with non‐parametric grid bootstrap confidence intervals. Applying the method to real exchange rates of 18 developed countries against the US dollar, we find that most half‐life estimates from the single equation method fall in the range of 3–5 years, with wide confidence intervals that extend to positive infinity. In contrast, the system method yields median‐unbiased estimates that are typically shorter than 1 year, with much sharper 95% confidence intervals. Our Monte Carlo simulation results are consistent with an interpretation of these results that the true half‐lives are short but long half‐life estimates from single‐equation methods are caused by the high degree of uncertainty of these methods. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On the Empirical Failure of Purchasing Power Parity Tests

Empirical research on the validity of the purchasing power parity (PPP) condition is generally based on real exchange rates built using the consumer price index (CPI), but fails to provide clear support to PPP. In this paper we show theoretically that, even if the law of one price (LOP) holds for traded goods, CPI‐based real exchange rates are not mean reverting, and are neither stationary nor integrated. Therefore, both unit root and stationarity tests should reject their null. Our theoretical results are validated both by simulations and an empirical application. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Optimizing Location Among Three Countries Under Exchange Rate Uncertainty: Applying Real Options

This investigation extends the Batch Process Model [Lin et al. (2002). Journal of management and system 9: 173–196] from two productive locations between two countries to establish a decision valuation model for selecting the optimal location of three productive locations among three countries, respectively. A general form with the first order of degree homothetic production functions is also considered by the rule of decision-making in the proposed model. The firm is risk neutral and this study adopts the real options approach for valuing the behavior of the transferable location among three countries. Furthermore, using Dynamic programming and Lagrange Multiplies for a continuous-Time Model Optimization Problem to get a closed form solution of the threshold value, sensitivity analysis, and some characteristic strategies of the operating method for batch process model among three countries are sought, providing for another way of thinking.     

Productivity Bias Hypothesis and The Purchasing Power Parity: a review article

Abstract.  Productivity differentials among countries are said to be one of the major sources that contribute to the deviation of the Purchasing Power Parity-based exchange rate from the equilibrium rate, hence the productivity bias hypothesis. Prior to last review article on the productivity bias hypothesis in 1976, almost all studies relied upon cross-sectional regression analysis. Since then, two groups of empirical studies have emerged. While one group has employed time-series data, the other one has used panel data. These two later groups have provided more support to the hypothesis than the earlier cross-sectional studies. This paper reviews and criticizes each group separately and provides tables that summarize main features of each study.     

Cities, Borders, Distances, Non-Traded Goods and Purchasing Power Parity

Most empirical studies for the post Bretton-Woods period fail to find evidence of a long-run Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) relationship. An investigation into the failure of PPP is made in this study by using disaggregated price data. This disaggregation is on two levels: location (prices from US and Canadian cities rather than national aggregates) and type of goods (e.g., fuel oil, a tradable commodity and local public transportation, a non-tradable). This disaggregation allows for the testing of the importance of borders (implying an exchange rate), distances, and types of goods in the failure of PPP. The analysis conducted suggests that both country borders and distances play a significant role. However, there is mixed evidence concerning type of goods as an important determinant of the failure of PPP.     

Fiscal Explanations for Inflation: Any Evidence from Transition Economies?

Recent arguments, motivated partly by the new fiscal theory of price level, suggest that fiscal deficits undermine price stability in transition economies. This paper addresses these claims by examining vector-autoregressive models of inflation for three transition economies (Bulgaria, Romania and Russia). The results indicate that fiscal deficits have increased inflation in Bulgaria and Romania but not in the case of Russia. In Bulgaria and Romania, money aggregates and exchange rate have also been more influential to inflation than fiscal deficits. The analysis based on this method therefore suggests that while fiscal deficits have some influence on inflation, monetary factors mostly determine inflation in these three countries.     

转型期汽车营销异业联盟实施策略研究

异业品牌联盟是转型期汽车企业寻求突破的营销创新战略。本文对汽车营销实施异业联盟战略的流程进行分析,阐述了异业联盟间的产品策略、价格策略、促销策略和服务策略。     

推进浙江房地产低碳转型的对策

房地产业的碳排放量占了全社会碳排放总量30%以上,房地产的低碳转型是实现控制碳排放的关键之一。房地产业的快速发展极大推动了浙江经济的增长,但这种粗放发展的房地产导致浙江经济对房地产业产生了一定程度的依赖。浙江可以围绕居住建筑和公共建筑这两个减碳重点的房地产开发领域,构建发展低碳房地产的3+2+3制度和技术集成体系。即,构建低碳房地产的3项基本制度、2类关键技术和3个保障机制,从而实现浙江房地产业的低碳转型。     

The Unemployment–Output Tradeoff in Transition Economies: Does Okun''s Law Apply?

This paper investigates whether an Okun-type relationship between output and unemployment is taking hold in formerly planned economies as they move towards the market. Using a first-differences variant of Okun's Law, we test for its presence in 25 transition countries divided into groups of ``reform leaders' and ``reform laggards.' For leaders, represented by the 10 European Union (EU) accession countries, Okun's Law is detected in both 1991–94 and 1995–2000 periods. For laggards, represented by the remaining group, it is present only for the later period and only when countries affected by wars are removed from the sample. A comparison of unemployment–output elasticities and unemployment levels in EU candidates and EU members themselves indicates that their labor markets might be converging.     

基于利率平价理论视角研究人民币汇率问题

贸易顺差会导致汇率升值,这是许多人从西方经济学理论中得到的认识。随着我国的外贸连年顺差、外汇储备不断扩大,大量的外贸顺差和外汇储备使得外汇市场上人民币升值压力很大,人民币汇率成为全球瞩目的焦点。近年来西方政界与学术界屡屡以中国贸易顺差为由要挟人民币升值。而实际是欧美人以所谓的全球经济再平衡为幌子想要中国通过让人民币进一步升值来为金融危机买更多单。然而人民币是否真正存在升值压力,我们通过实际测算一下来得出结论。本文依据利率平价理论,构造出一种估计货币汇率升值或贬值压力的方法,并运用升值压力指标对人民币对美元汇率变动进行了检验,得出人民币对美元确实存在升值压力。     

人民币汇率购买力平价的界限检验

本文采用界限检验(bounds test)方法对人民币汇率购买力平价进行经验分析。与协整检验不同，界限检验具有直接检验变量间长期相关性的优点，而不管各相关变量是零阶单整、一阶单整还是混合形式，不必预先对相关变量进行单位根检验。通过对人民币兑德国马克、港币、日元和美元四种名义汇率的界限检验，本文的经验分析结果显示，1994年汇率制度改革以来人民币汇率购买力平价得到部分经验证据的支持。其中，人民币兑美元和人民币兑港币汇率的走势符合购买力平价理论，而人民币兑德国马克和人民币兑日元汇率不符合购买力平价理论。     

Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies: Taking Stock of the Issues*

Abstract. In this paper, we present an overview of a number of issues relating to the equilibrium exchange rates of transition economies of the former soviet bloc. In particular, we present a critical overview of the various methods available for calculating equilibrium exchange rates and discuss how useful they are likely to be for the transition economies. Amongst our findings is the result that the trend appreciation usually observed for the exchange rates of these economies is affected by factors other than the usual Balassa–Samuelson effect, such as the behaviour of the real exchange rate of the open sector and regulated prices. We then consider three main sources of uncertainty relating to the implementation of an equilibrium exchange rate model, namely: differences in the theoretical underpinnings, differences in the econometric estimation techniques, and differences relating to the time‐series and cross‐sectional dimensions of the data. The ensuing three‐dimensional space of real misalignments is probably a useful tool in determining the direction of a possible misalignment rather than its precise size.     

Institutions and Foreign Subsidiary Growth in Transition Economies: The Role of Intangible Assets and Capabilities

Although transition economies experience significant institutional transformations that vary in their degree and pace, scholarly knowledge of what distinguishes more successful foreign subsidiaries from less successful ones in such environments is limited and inconsistent. We enhance the understanding of this subject by examining how variations in the institutional development of transition economies influence the usefulness of a subsidiary's intangible assets and capabilities and, in turn, their effectiveness in enhancing its growth. Prior research assumes that foreign subsidiaries that operate in any given environment are always better off when they possess strong intangible assets and capabilities. Our analysis of more than 33,000 observations in 14 transition economies challenges this view and enables us to explain why some subsidiaries grow more quickly in less‐developed institutional environments, whereas others more quickly in countries with institutions that are more developed. More specifically, we show that although a subsidiary's intangible assets enhance its growth in transition economies with stronger institutions, these effects are particularly weak or insignificant in transition countries with less developed institutional environments. Conversely, a completely different pattern emerges for subsidiary capabilities, with their marginal effects on subsidiary growth being significantly higher in countries that are institutionally less developed than in transition countries with more developed institutions.     

Agricultural Prices in Transition Economies: The Case of Bulgaria and Slovenia1,2

The paper studies the extent to which the transition in agricultural prices has satisfactorily been implemented in Bulgaria and Slovenia and the degree to which actual prices reflect the equilibrium conditions of the market. In Bulgaria, a model in which the new and old regime can co-exist, was estimated using the Kalman filter while in Slovenia, a market clearing supply-demand model for each agricultural product is estimated. The quantitative results show that the liberalisation process in agricultural prices is implemented in Bulgaria in a satisfactory way. The way of price determination is shifting from a cost-based approach to a market clearing one. The conclusions for Slovenia suggest that, at least for the period studied, convergence to a market clearing economy, as measured by the state intervention, is not as rapid as desired.     

Analysis on the exchange rate of Australian dollar

Australian dollar （AUD） maintains a fluctuant increase for long period, but in recent two years, this currency represents an anomalistic change. In order to forecast the trend of AUD, this essay examines the exchange rate of AUD in then years from March of 2000 to March of 2010, and argues the factors which create these trend changes. By means of secondary research and graphs analysis, the relevant evidence and argument was selected into four terms below： relative raw materials prices changes, relative domestic price level and Import-Expert changes, relative interest rate changes, and other factors. The examples based on the theoretics, graphs, statistics and experts＇ opinions.     

The Dynamics of Capital Structure in Transition Economies

This paper uses a dynamic unrestricted capital structure model to examine the determinants of the private companies' target financial leverage and the speed of adjustment to it in two transition economies, the Czech Republic and Bulgaria. We explicitly model the adjustment of companies' leverage to a target leverage, and this target leverage is itself explained by a set of factors. The panel data methodology combines cross-section and time-series information. The results indicate that the Bulgarian corporate credit markets were less supply -constrained than those of the Czech Republic during the period under investigation. Bulgariancompanies adjusted much faster to the target leverage than Czech firms. The speed ofadjustment related positively to the distance between target and observed ratio for Bulgarian companies while the relationship was neutral for Czech companies. The conservative policies of Czech banks and the exposure control were likely responsible for the slower adjustment among the larger companies while the opposite were true for Bulgarian banks and companies.     

TM视角下的上海可持续转型路径

可持续、低碳转型的复杂性决定其需要创新性、系统性的治理方法和工具。根据荷兰等国可持续、低碳转型的实践经验,将转型管理理论创造性地应用于上海可持续转型中。基于转型管理周期模型,探讨了上海可持续转型的发展路径:上海可持续转型需要从战略层、战术层、运作层、自反层四个层次和周期进行步进式布局,从建立可持续、低碳转型管理团队到构建转型愿景、从确定转型路径到开展转型试验,学习、监督和反思贯穿整个过程。     

Functional Coefficient Cointegration Models Subject to Time–Varying Volatility with an Application to the Purchasing Power Parity

This paper analyses functional coefficient cointegration models with both stationary and non‐stationary covariates, allowing time‐varying (unconditional) volatility of a general form. The conventional kernel weighted least squares (KLS) estimator is subject to potential efficiency loss, and can be improved by an adaptive kernel weighted least squares (AKLS) estimator that adapts to heteroscedasticity of unknown form. The AKLS estimator is shown to be as efficient as the oracle generalized kernel weighted least squares estimator asymptotically, and can achieve significant efficiency gain relative to the KLS estimator in finite samples. An illustrative example is provided by investigating the Purchasing Power Parity hypothesis.