International Monetary System under Scrutiny

THE RULES OF THE GAME: REFORM AND EVOLUTION IN THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY SYSTEM, by Kenneth W. Dam     

货币权力和国际货币体系的美元霸权

货币权力指各国在货币事务上独立决策并对其他国家实施影响的能力,包括自治力和影响力两个部分。由于中心国家的货币权力在国际货币体系的历史演变中越来越大,致使国际货币体系的不对称性日益显著。美元在牙买加体系中拥有空前的货币权力,这常被称为"美元霸权",美国次贷危机和国际金融海啸没有改变美元的霸权地位。     

International perspectives of the European Monetary System

The none too firmly established position of the IMF with regard to the realization of the objectives of its Articles of Agreement has been additionally impaired by the establishment of the European Monetary System. From an international point of view a revision of the present EMS concept would seem to be called for in order to prevent the credibility of the IMF and the objectives of its Agreement being called in question.     

Two Views of the International Monetary System

Intereconomics - Distinguishing between two different schools of thought that are named after two different universities, Harvard and Berkeley, the article looks at the evolution, past and future,...     

重建国际货币体系的三步走战略

2008年以来的国际金融危机进一步暴露了现行国际货币体系的弊端和严重不公,也突显出改革的重要性和紧迫性。在当前的国际环境下重构国际货币体系无疑是一个复杂而又艰巨的系统工程,需要世界人民尤其是主要发展中大国付出长期艰辛的努力和抗争。因此,站在现实和客观的角度,重建国际货币体系只能采取迂回的路子,即先通过人民币的国际化再逐步实现美元、人民币和欧元三足鼎立的多元本位国际货币体系,才能实现公正合理的超主权国际货币体系的三步走战略。     

替代账户与国际货币体系改革

由于直接使用特别提款权作为主要国际货币没有达到预期效果,IMF设计了替代账户机制用以完善特别提款权方案,希望借此为特别提款权提供另外一条成为主要国际货币的发展路径。因此,讨论特别提款权在国际货币体系改革中的作用就必须了解替代账户方案。本文简要分析了替代账户机制及其在国际货币体系改革中所扮演的角色,主要结论是:替代账户机制是国际社会妥协的产物,尽管还存在诸多不足,依然是今后国际货币体系改革的重点突破方向。     

变革中的国际货币体系及中国的策略分析

布雷顿森林体系瓦解以来,国际货币体系进入了浮动汇率制时代。浮动汇率被认为可以自发调节国际收支,然而浮动汇率制本身难以解决双边汇率易变性和偏离性的难题。目前,如何改变全球性的国际收支失衡状况已经成为国际货币体系亟待解决的主要问题。以国际货币基金组织为代表的国际机构正在进行积极的改革,以应对这一挑战。     

构建高效安全的国际货币体系

在金融业高度发达的今天,金融产品依靠国家信用形成毫无节制的供给能力,是全球经济危机产生的根源。构建高效安全的全球金融体系,是国际经济学界和各国政府共同的历史责任,当务之急是建立多元竞争的国际货币体系、国际储备货币监测预警制度和国际金融安全合作救助机制,形成保障国际金融安全的三道防护门。在这一过程中,G20应充分发挥作用,为建立高效安全的国际货币体系作出历史性贡献。     

国际生产中心转移与货币体系错配:人民币国际化

国际生产中心与国际货币体系相一致是世界经济均衡发展的必要条件。当前世界经济失衡是国际生产中心转移于货币体系错配的结果。中国自20世纪90年代以来成为世界制造业中心,但使用的计价和结算货币仍然是美元,货币体系错配导致中国承担了美元外汇占款带来的巨大成本。对此,必须加快人民币国际化进程,改革国内金融市场、分"三步走"推动人民币国际化、在对外投资和对外贸易中使用人民币计价和结算等,逐步摆脱美元危机的负面影响。     

关于推动国际金融(货币)体系改革及推进人民币国际化的探讨

改革国际金融、国际货币体系的根本措施在于加强金融监管,防止金融过度创新,建立全球信用评级的统一标准,对特别提款权进行立法管理,建立储备货币的淘汰和进入门槛机制.本文还对人民币国际化提出了具有可操作性的设想.     

基于稳定性与流动性视角下的国际货币体系演变分析

国际货币制度历次的变革都是基于对国际货币流动性与稳定性的权衡取舍的制度安排。以牙买加体系为例,可以总结为牙买加体系酝酿金融危机,金融危机冲毁牙买加体系。金融危机内生于现有国际货币制度,如果现有的国际货币制度得不到本质性的改变,那么源于美国的金融危机也将无法得到彻底消除,偶发的金融危机也必将是国际货币体制内在的特征。在流动性与稳定性的双重视角下,国际货币体系改革推进的最有可能的路径是ROW国家之间增加非美元结算,减少对美元的需求,并且随着经济实力的提升,进一步加强改革的力度。在当前国际货币金融体系约束下,人民币在国际化进程中的短期操作思路仍是以通过与ROW国家的非美元结算合作以弱化对美元的需求。     

国际货币体系改革与人民币国际化

国际货币体系改革与人民币国际化现已成为必然趋势,并形成相动关系。国际货币体系改革需要经历三个阶段,而人民币国际化在内外动因的作用下,面对基本条件欠缺和国际化程度较低的现实,尚需要通过层次深化的三个阶段和空间扩展的三个步骤方能走完整个历程。     

The lending policy of the International Monetary Fund

In the worldwide economic and debt crisis of the eighties the International Monetary Fund increasingly became the “lender of last resort” for a great many Third World countries. With world trade weak and interest rates high, a considerable number of developing countries got into serious balance-of-payments difficulties. The demand for stand-by and extended arrangements with the Fund rose dramatically. The conditions or adjustment programmes linked to this lending not infrequently led to serious social and political tensions in the countries concerned. The term “IMF riots” was coined, and the conditionality of credit again became the subject of political and academic debate.     

Reforming the Governance of the International Monetary Fund

Democratising the governance of the IMF will significantly improve the institution's capacity to manage crises. The implementation of a democratic framework requires a reform of the Fund's ‘quota regime,’ which mediates the distribution of voting power. An optimal reform of the quota regime that reflects the increased weight of emerging economies requires matching the number of policy objectives with the number of policy instruments. Presently, there is a classic ‘assignment problem’ whereby one policy instrument (i.e., the quota regime) is aimed at achieving three objectives (i.e., member contribution obligations, access rights, and voting rights). Three different instruments need to be adopted. Member contributions should be based on member's capacity to pay; access to resources should be based on need; and voting rights should balance the rights of creditors with the principle of sovereign equality. These reforms will enhance the Fund's legitimacy and accountability as a forum for global economic policy‐making.     

Monetary Dynamics of Inflation in China

This paper investigates both the short‐run and the long‐run relationships between monetary growth and inflation in China between 1980 and 2010. We construct multivariate dynamic models based on Friedman’s quantity theory of money (but permitting money to be endogenous) and Meltzer’s monetarist model. The empirical results provide robust evidence that there is a bilateral causal relationship between monetary growth and inflation as well as between monetary growth and output growth. An indirect and implicit causal relationship between monetary growth and inflation is found through the asset inflation channel. There are also long‐run equilibrium relationships between money stock, price index and other relevant variables. The present paper further provides a historical exploration of the mechanism of the monetary dynamics of inflation in China over the underlying period. We conclude that the monetary growth rule is likely to be the most promising policy orientation for China to manage its inflation.     

主权信用货币国际体系下对外资产低收益现象研究

借鉴基本因素均衡实际利率思想,构建对外资产基本因素均衡收益率缺口测算模型。实证结果表明:尽管美元计价资产具有高流动性、安全性,并且供给量充分,但中国、印度、巴西三国对外美元资产均衡收益率缺口为负,美元"过度特权"与本币实际汇率价值损失效应是缺口为负的两大原因。美元主导的单极国际货币体系下,中国等国家对外资产低收益是必然的,即使在多元主权信用货币国际体系下,该现象也不会得到显著改善。     

浅谈货币危机预警系统的设计

金融全球化和国际短期资本的流动使得货币危机频繁发生。为了避免货币危机给一国经济和政治所带来的巨大危害 ,有必要设计一个有效的货币危机预警系统。本文从货币危机的定义与危害入手 ,探讨了货币预警系统的设计思路、框架和运行机制 ,着重论述了危机预警指标的选择。     

Reforming the European Monetary System

The extreme widening of the exchange rate margins last summer has transformed the EMS from a multilateral fixed rate system into a system of unilateral exchange rate pegging. Professor Neumann characterises the current state of the EMS, outlines the major defects of the system and makes some proposals for reform.