中国粮食生产中农药高强度施用行为之经济学分析

基于上海财经大学千村调研①的数据,建立 damage-abatement 生产函数模型,实证检验了粮食生产中各种要素对农药施用行为的影响.研究表明:市场收益、政府介入及农户特征这三类因素均会对农药施用产生影响.进一步分析农户的政策诉求显示:使用农药强度高的农户对技术指导的诉求反而低于使用农药强度低的农户,这种逆向选择进一步增加了农药滥用治理的难度.     

Energy futures: Diversity and the need for assessment

In energy policy and energy research, decisions have to be made about the technologies and infrastructures that may be used to provide and distribute energy in future times, some of which are very distant. Frequently, energy futures such as predictions of the energy demand or energy scenarios are used for decision-support in this field. The diversity of energy futures, however, threatens any possibility for orientation, could lead to disorientation instead of helping more rational decision-making and could be used for ideological purpose. In this paper, we investigate concepts and approaches for scrutinizing, comparing and assessing the various energy futures from an epistemological point of view. Following the analysis of the structure of (energy) futures we will conclude that comparisons and assessments of energy futures should be made through processes of scrutiny and assessment, looking into the ingredients which have been used in constructing the respective futures, and into the process of their composition. Providing much more insight into the cognitive and normative structure of energy futures is required for allowing a more transparent and deliberative societal debate about future energy systems.     

Using accounting ratios to distinguish between Islamic and conventional banks in the GCC region

This study determines whether it is possible to distinguish between conventional and Islamic banks in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region on the basis of financial characteristics alone. Islamic banks operate under different principles, such as risk sharing and the prohibition of interest, yet both types of banks face similar competitive conditions. The combination of effects makes it unclear whether financial ratios will differ significantly between the two categories of banks. We input 26 financial ratios into logit, neural network, and k-means nearest neighbor classification models to determine whether researchers or regulators could use these ratios to distinguish between the two types of banks. Although the means of several ratios are similar between the two categories of banks, non-linear classification techniques (k-means nearest neighbors and neural networks) are able to correctly distinguish Islamic from conventional banks in out-of-sample tests at about a 92% success rate.     

Comparison of farmers’ mental models of the present and the future: A case study of pesticide use

Farmers in developing countries will in the future be confronted with major changes. The ability to cope with these challenges rests on their capability to relate future problems to current behavior. Our approach investigates this capability and consists in comparing mental models of the present and future. The approach moreover enables us to explore whether and how farmers are able to imagine a future differing from the perceived present.Data from previous studies investigating present and future pesticide application were used. In the datasets the mental models of farmers’ livelihood were structured into livelihood capitals (human, health, natural and financial capital), causal relations among the livelihood capitals were derived, and present and future causal relations were compared.The comparison of these causal relations led to six cases, each representing a different degree of dependence of future on present causal relations. The dependence was found to vary among farmers and analyzed livelihood capital. Three types of farmers with differing dependence patterns were identified.The differences found lead to new insights for policy recommendations, depending on farmers focus in their causal relations. We therefore expect that interventions focusing either more on the causes or effects of causal relations will result in a better uptake of knowledge by farmers.     

Volatility spillovers between WTI and Brent spot crude oil prices: an analysis of granger causality in variance patterns over time

There has been an increase in price volatility in oil prices during and since the global financial crisis (GFC). This study investigates the Granger causality patterns in volatility spillovers between West Texas International (WTI) and Brent crude oil spot prices using daily data. We use Hafner and Herwartz’s (2006) test and employ a rolling sample approach to investigate the changes in the dynamics of volatility spillovers between WTI and Brent oil prices over time. Volatility spillovers from Brent to WTI prices are found to be more pronounced at the beginning of the analysis period, around the GFC, and more recently in 2020. Between 2015 and 2019, the direction of volatility spillovers runs unidirectionally from WTI to Brent oil prices. In 2020, however, a Granger-causal feedback relation between the volatility of WTI and Brent crude oil prices is again detected. This is due to the uncertainty surrounding how the COVID-19 pandemic will evolve and how long the economies and financial markets will be affected. In this uncertain environment, commodities markets participants could be reacting to prices and volatility signals on both WTI and Brent, leading to the detection of a feedback relation.     

Discount Point Concessions and the Value of Homes with Conventional versus Nonconventional Mortgage Financing

This is an empirical investigation on the impacts of certain seller concessions on home prices. Specifically, we examine the impacts of two seller concessions: discount point concessions (DPCs) and closing cost concessions (CCCs) on home prices. Using hedonic analysis, we find that DPCs are capitalized into home prices. We do not find that CCCs produce capitalization effects. DPCs appear to work in a manner similar to other creative financing techniques such as a buydown mortgage. DPCs enhance affordability by lowering interest costs and debt service payments. DPCs thus lead to increases in effective demand. CCCs will reduce out of pocket expenses but will not necessarily enhance long-term affordability, thus their price effects are less certain. We show that these price premiums are prevalent only when conventional mortgage financing is used. When FHA and VA loans are used, premiums disappear. Of course, governmental insured/guaranteed loans are much more subject to regulation than conventional loans, which may prevent homesellers from price premium maximization. The study establishes the relative significance of discount points versus closing costs as marketing incentives. It appears that the use of discount points as a marketing incentive produces more capitalization effects. The presence of such capitalization effects is consistent with results found in other creative financing studies.     

Complexity and the limits to knowledge

Economies are systems in which the macroscopically observable quantities emerge from the effects of interactions amongst the individual constituents of the system. They exhibit key features of complex systems: short-term non-predictability, emergent properties and multiple possible histories.The conventional approach to the control of the economy at the aggregate level requires the ability to both make reasonably accurate predictions of what will happen in the future in the absence of policy changes and have a reasonably accurate understanding of the impact of policy changes on the economy.Neither of these is the case. There are inherent reasons why the ability to forecast with any reasonable degree of accuracy over time is severely limited, and why the ability to extract information from aggregate time-series data about the ways in which economic variables interact is also restricted.The implication is not that governments should do nothing. The actions of governments clearly do have consequences, for better or for worse. But the conventional way of thinking, which requires a world which behaves like a dependable machine, needs to be abandoned.     

The role of biosolar technologies in future energy supply making scenarios for the Netherlands: Energy port and energy farm

This paper assesses the possible roles of biosolar energy systems in the Netherlands in the coming years. The appraisal is made in the light of EU Directives on renewable energy and reduction of CO₂ emissions, and the new Dutch Energy Agreement for Sustainable Growth. The assessment is made within the Dutch BioSolar Cells (BSCs) research programme on photosynthesis and its application in fuel production. Part of the programme is committed to societal debate by considering different options and uses of biosolar technology. To provide building blocks for these discussions, we conducted a comprehensive desk study supplemented with key expert interviews, and we identified and articulated the main drivers for the Dutch transition towards more sustainable energy supply. Next, these drivers were used to develop two futures: energy port and energy farm, representing institutional settings in which BSC technology could be implemented. Both represent fundamentally different types of innovation and are useful in assessing the effect of policies on future energy systems. Both scenarios were used in workshops with BSC researchers and policymakers. Their possible implications for the BSC programme itself, as well as the broader policy significance of the use of biosolar technologies in the Netherlands, are indicated.     

Imagining Australia's energy services futures

The ways Australians use energy have changed significantly over the past 30 years, for example the low-energy intensity services sector has grown its share of the economy, and they will change more, as factors such as climate change, an ageing population and changing cultures and technologies impact. Many consider that energy use is driven by economic and population growth. While these are important, the nature of change in energy service requirements and the efficiency with which energy services are delivered are even more important. This paper discusses past and future trends in Australia's energy service requirements, and assesses the implications for energy supply.Changes in global and local energy service requirements mean that demand for Australian energy and resource exports may decline significantly in absolute terms, and the viability of conventional energy grids, even in cities, will be questionable. The actual outcome will be sensitive to decisions, both conscious and unconscious, made by individuals, business and governments.     

投入品对我国农业生产影响的实证分析

采用回归分析法对1979～2009年影响我国农业产值变化的主要投入品要素进行分析,结果发现:农用化肥使用量对我国农业总产值的变化有显著的贡献,农用机械总动力对我国农业总产值的变化有正的但不显著的影响,农药使用量在短期而言可促进农业产值增加,但从长期看,农药的使用会导致农业产值下降,相反,农用塑料薄膜施用量对我国长期均衡农业生产总值则有显著的负的影响。     

Effects of the New Basel Capital Accord on Bank Capital Requirements for SMEs

Using data from three countries (US, Italy and Australia) and surveying related studies from several other countries in Europe, we investigate the effects of the New Basel Capital Accord on bank capital requirements for small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs). We find that, for all the countries, banks will have significant benefits, in terms of lower capital requirements, when considering small and medium sized firms as retail customers. But they will be obliged to use the Advanced IRB approach and to manage them on a pooled basis. For SMEs as corporate, however, capital requirements will be slightly greater than under the existing Basel I Capital Accord. We believe that most eligible banks will use a blended approach (considering some SMEs as retail and some as corporate). Through a breakeven analysis, we find that for all of our countries, banking organizations will be obliged to classify as retail at least 20% of their SME portfolio in order to maintain the current capital requirement (8%). JEL classification: G21, G28     

Management Quality and Equity Issue Characteristics: A Comparison of SEOs and IPOs

We use hand-collected data on the management quality of firms making seasoned equity offerings (SEOs) or initial public offerings (IPOs) to analyze the relationship between management quality and equity issue characteristics, and to compare the effect of management quality on SEOs versus IPOs. We hypothesize that higher quality managers are more credible to equity market investors, thereby reducing the information asymmetry they face in the market and outsiders’ information production costs. Therefore, the equity issues of higher management quality firms will have more reputable underwriters, smaller underwriting spreads, and other expenses, and smaller SEO discounts. Further, since better managers will be able to select better projects, higher management quality firms will have larger offer sizes. Finally, since SEO firms are likely to suffer from less information asymmetry compared to IPO firms, these effects will be smaller for SEOs than for IPOs. Our findings support the above hypotheses. Our direct tests of the relationship between management quality and information asymmetry, and our comparison of information asymmetry in SEOs versus IPOs provide further support for these hypotheses.     

The bias in Black-Scholes/Black implied volatility: An analysis of equity and energy markets

In this paper we examine the extent of the bias between Black and Scholes (1973)/Black (1976) implied volatility and realized term volatility in the equity and energy markets. Explicitly modeling a market price of volatility risk, we extend previous work by demonstrating that Black-Scholes is an upward-biased predictor of future realized volatility in S&P 500/S&P 100 stock-market indices. Turning to the Black options-on-futures formula, we apply our methodology to options on energy contracts, a market in which crises are characterized by a positive correlation between price-returns and volatilities: After controlling for both term-structure and seasonality effects, our theoretical and empirical findings suggest a similar upward bias in the volatility implied in energy options contracts. We show the bias in both Black-Scholes/Black implied volatilities to be related to a negative market price of volatility risk. JEL Classification G12 · G13     

Comparing perceptions of the important environmental characteristics of the places people engage in consumptive,non-consumptive and spiritual activities

Managers, risk assessors, tribal leaders, public policy makers, and the public are increasingly interested in the characteristics of natural habitats where people like to engage in recreational, subsistence, or spiritual activities. Such data are critical for making decisions about human and ecological risk deriving from contaminants, as well as resource protection and land use. In this study we examined the perceptions of Native Americans and Caucasians about the natural places they prefer to engage in consumptive, non-consumptive, and spiritual activities which might expose them to contamination or other stressors. Subjects were interviewed at Post Falls and Fort Hall in Idaho, Cookeville in Tennessee, and at two sites in Long Island, New York, and northern New Jersey. Our objectives were to determine differences in perceptions as a function of category of activity, type of activity, location, and ethnicity. The data indicate that: (1) the highest rated characteristics were unpolluted water, lack of radionuclides that present a health risk, clean air, and no visible smog in the air; (2) all four were among the top-rated ones for each of the four sites; (3) all four were among the top-rated ones for places to perform consumptive, non-consumptive, and spiritual activities; (4) at each site, mean ratings were lowest for spiritual activities; (5) where there were differences, Native Americans rated all characteristics as more important than did Caucasians; and (6) where there were differences, ratings in New Jersey/New York were lower than those from respondents elsewhere. There are many statistically significant response differences between Native Americans and Caucasians, but overall one is impressed by the similarity in relative rankings. These perceptions will be helpful to risk assessors and risk managers in evaluating risk and potential solutions, to land managers for managing environmental resources, and to public policy managers for evaluating how people view natural environments.     

Farm food safety and diseases risk assessments: case studies from the horticultural and salmonid farms

This study explores the perceptions of selected fresh produce and salmonid farms on the types and importance of various risk assessments conducted at the primary production level. Both the fresh produce and salmonid farms in this study are vigilantly conducting risk assessments to prevent or reduce potential food safety and infectious diseases from occurring. The participating farms generally carried out at least eight types of risk assessments such as health and safety, water, workers’ hygiene, site assessment and pesticides/veterinary medicines on an annual basis. Health and safety, pesticides/veterinary health, fresh produce safety and fish health assessments are some of the most important types of risk assessments for the farms. Most farms will continue with the good practice of conducting risk assessments even if it is not required by their customers or regulations but would prefer to reduce the amount of paper/electronic-based risk assessments.     

Capital and Earnings Management: Evidence from Alternative Banking Business Models

This paper examines whether institutional characteristics distinguishing Islamic from conventional banks lead to distinctive capital and earnings management behavior through the use of loan loss provisions. In our sample countries, the two banking sectors operate under different regulatory frameworks: conventional banks currently apply the “incurred” loan loss model until 2018 whereas Islamic banks mandatorily adopt an “expected” loan loss model. Our results provide significant evidence of capital and earnings management practices via loan loss provisions in conventional banks. This finding is more prominent for large and loss-generating banks. By contrast, Islamic banks tend not to use loan loss provisions in either capital or earnings management, irrespective of the bank's size, earnings profile, or the structure of their loan loss model. This difference may be attributed to the constrained business model of Islamic banking, strict governance, and ethical orientation.     

A comparative performance of conventional and Islamic unit trusts: Market timing and persistence evidence

It is expected that the returns and resistance of Islamic mutual funds will be different from conventional mutual funds as the former have limited choices for portfolio diversification. This article analyses the performance of conventional and Islamic unit trusts for the period February 1995 to July 2012 in the Malaysian market, one of the most developed Islamic mutual fund markets. The performance analysis is based on four parameters: (i) risk-adjusted returns of unit trusts; (ii) market timing abilities; (iii) selection performance; and (iv) persistence. The results of this study suggest that the returns of both conventional and Islamic unit trusts have outperformed the market throughout the sample period. The results for market timing and selectivity are mostly the same for both categories of funds. However, Islamic unit trusts seem to have better resistance to market downturn than conventional unit trusts. The results of this research can be used by investors to identify funds or create portfolios that are more suitable for a recessionary scenario and for fund managers to better manage their portfolio performance during times when markets are likely to fall. The findings in this article are highly relevant for policymakers, investors and fund managers to determine policy matters, deciding on investment and marketing strategy for Islamic mutual funds.     

Using reciprocal allocation of service department costs for decision making

This article has provided a look into the use of the reciprocal method as an alternative to more conventional methods of hospital service department cost allocation methods. The reciprocal method can be used with readily available software and with data that are largely already known. This method will provide not only appropriate allocation values for financial reporting but data that can be used for hospital decision making. In the highly competitive and sometimes hostile environment in which hospitals now fight to survive, any additional relevant data--especially that generated at almost no additional cost--should be provided to managers to help in the decision-making process.     

欧元区单一货币政策区域非对称效应的实证研究——基于VAR方法的检验

本文试图在开放宏观框架下检验欧元区单一货币政策冲击给各成员国带来的区域非对称效应。首先,通过考察欧元区货币政策传导渠道检验区域非对称效应的产生机制;其次,运用VAR模型和脉冲响应函数(IRFs)检验货币政策区域效应的程度;最后,运用分时段VAR模型检验货币政策区域效应的内生性。结果表明,欧洲单一货币政策对各成员国产生非对称冲击,且非对称效应未出现收敛性,欧元区宏观政策协调的成本和难度加大。