Capital budgeting and uncertain inflation

In this article, capital budgeting is examined under uncertain inflation. The market value of a risky asset is shown to be greatly influenced by uncertain inflation. Risk- adjusted discount rates and certainty equivalent factors are determined by risks due to potential changes in investors' expectations in response to changes in the unanticipated inflation rate and market conditions over time. A serious error in capital budgeting decision may be resulted if the impact of uncertain inflation is ignored in the valuation process.     

不确定区域天线扫描目标捕获方法

针对航天测控站天线快速扫描需求与天线机械结构动态性能较低之间的矛盾,设计了天线方位、俯仰角速度正弦变化条件下合成圆周扫描和螺旋扫描轨迹算法,提出了结合目标运动特性选择扫描方式的原则,举例说明了扫描参数计算方法。计算和仿真结果表明,利用所提方法可以将天线加速度控制在天线设计指标以内,目标捕获概率可控。该扫描参数计算方法已经部分应用于我国探月工程。     

Rivalry in uncertain export markets: commitment versus flexibility

This paper examines optimal trade policy in a two-period oligopoly model, with a home and a foreign firm choosing capital and output. Demand uncertainty, resolved in period two, gives rise to a trade-off between strategic commitment and flexibility in the firms’ investment decisions. Firms’ investment timing is endogenous and can be manipulated by the home government, which sets a subsidy before firms decide when to invest. We show that when the government wishes to manipulate investment timing, it will choose its policy to deter investment commitment by the home or the foreign firm.     

Customer retention when the customer's future usage is uncertain

Consumers are often uncertain about how much they will use a service in the future (e.g., health clubs, credit cards, cell phones), yet the effects of this uncertainty on customer retention have not been studied. This research investigates factors influencing consumers' decisions about whether to retain noncontractual services for which anticipated future usage levels are uncertain. The studies show that Future Usage Uncertainty (FUU) generally reduces the likelihood that a customer will continue in a service relationship. However, when consumers consider the flexibility they have to delay the keep/drop decision (i.e., drop flexibility), or the anticipated regret associated with making the wrong decision, the effects of FUU are essentially eliminated, and consumers are more likely to continue in the relationship. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Partitioning or bundling? Perceived fairness of the surcharge makes a difference

Partitioned pricing charges a base price and a surcharge instead of an equivalent all‐inclusive price. In contrast, a bundling strategy offers a bundled price instead of separate prices for products in one package. Which pricing practice is more profitable? Previous research has shown conflicting results. This research identifies the boundary conditions which circumscribe the profitability of partitioned and bundled pricing. Results of three experiments indicate that the relative significance of the surcharge to the base price influences consumers' perception of the fairness of the surcharge, which in turn influences consumer purchase intentions. Furthermore, given the same level of surcharge, consumers' perceptions of the fairness of the surcharge moderates the effect of the pricing strategies. Thus, perceived fairness of the surcharge appears to be the key in determining whether or not the partitioning strategy is more profitable than the bundling strategy. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

More expectations,more disappointments: Ego depletion in uncertain promotion

Uncertain promotion is used widely in marketing practice. This study discusses the ego depletion differences of consumers for three types of uncertain promotions based on expectation disconfirmation theory. Two studies show consumers have the greatest ego depletion in effort-oriented uncertain promotions, followed by skill-oriented and least luck-oriented promotions. Additionally, the ego depletion degree has a negative impact on activity satisfaction in the short-term and brand loyalty in the long-term. Finally, under the moderation of customers’ expectation realization states, achieving expectations has repaired ego depletion for three types of promotions, while failing to achieve expectations only aggravates ego depletion for skill-oriented promotions.     

Market orientation and uncertain supply in upstream markets: an exploratory study

A key task of the purchasing function is to secure adequate and timely supplies of necessary input factors. In some industries, however, this task is challenging, as it may be difficult to obtain timely and reliable input, e.g. in industries based on natural resources. This may have serious implications for firms’ ability to compete effectively in their output markets. Few empirical studies of purchasing behaviour have focused on how actors cope with uncertain supply. Also, the fast-growing market orientation literature generally seems to have neglected the importance of supply. This paper aims to provide insight into the poorly understood question of how upstream actors cope with uncertain input supply to handle customers’ needs and wants. To investigate our research problem an exploratory study was conducted among 20 upstream actors in the seafood industry. A quasi-experimental approach was applied by selecting firms from two industry branches so that one group was exposed to the “treatment” (i.e. uncertain supply) while the other group was not. Our findings show that when supply is uncertain it is of utmost concern and considered a key determinant in satisfying the firms’ target markets.     

Consumer response to uncertain promotions: An empirical analysis of conditional rebates

We formulate, estimate, and analyze a model of consumer response to promotions where consumers' receipt of the promotional reward is uncertain. The model incorporates consumers' risk aversion and their subjective assessment of the probability that they will get the reward. It is used to assess the effectiveness of a “conditional rebate”, where the uncertainty arises because the reward is contingent on an external event, versus a traditional rebate, which is similar in all respects except that it is certain. We estimate the model using a conjoint choice experiment. Response to conditional rebates is highly segmented and related to perceived thinking costs and savings and entertainment benefits of conditional rebates as well as to event involvement and gambling proneness. In our application, conditional rebates are more cost effective than certain rebates, mostly because consumers' subjective probability of the event occurring is higher than what market wisdom suggests.     

产品评价的来源国分解效应:欠发达国家视角

出于不同的目的,无论是发达国家还是欠发达国家,都呈现出产品来源国分解的趋势。以往的研究表明,发达国家为了降低成本将生产转移到欠发达国家,而欠发达国家的消极形象并未降低消费者对产品的评价;当欠发达国家为了提高消费者对产品的评价而利用发达国家的技术和设计时,结果却并不理想。为此,文章引入混合产品的解释机制,着重从欠发达国家视角探讨来源国分解效应。通过实验发现:欠发达国家产品来源国分解后,在一般情况下,由于消费者启动的是关系解释而不会改变对产品的评价,当启动属性解释时,有助于提高消费者对产品的评价;而对欠发达国家本国的消费者而言,则无论是否启动属性解释,对产品的评价都会显著提高。     

Setting price or quantity: Depends on what the seller is more uncertain about

We consider a seller with uncertain demand for its product. If the demand curve were certain, then setting price and setting quantity would be equivalent ways to frame the seller’s problem of choosing a profit-maximizing point on its demand curve. With uncertain demand, these become distinct sales mechanisms. We distinguish between uncertainty about the market size and uncertainty about the consumers’ valuations. Our main results are that (i) for a given marginal cost, an increase in uncertainty about valuations favors setting quantity whereas an increase in uncertainty about market size favors setting price; (ii) keeping demand uncertainty fixed, there is a nonmonotonic relationship between marginal costs and the optimal selling mechanism (setting price or quantity); and (iii) in a bilateral monopoly channel setting, coordination occurs except for a conflict zone in which the retailer’s choice of a selling mechanism deviates from the coordinated channel selling mechanism.     

The good,the bad and the uncertain: Employers' perceptions of former entrepreneurs

Do employers perceive former entrepreneurs as suitable candidates for paid employment? We argue that (positive and negative) stereotypes and uncertainty drive employability perceptions regarding former entrepreneurs; these perceptions are contingent upon job type and the background of both the applicant and the person evaluating them. Two empirical studies yield broad support for our predictions. In Study 1 (a vignette study), we find lower employability perceptions regarding former entrepreneurs compared to other applicants, which are significantly mediated by positive and negative stereotypes as well as uncertainty perceptions. In Study 2 (conjoint experiments with two separate samples: recruiters and executives), we substantiate the results of Study 1, revealing that when former entrepreneurs apply for a job involving personnel responsibility or when there is evidence of a failure in their vita, they are less likely to face devaluations. Further, we find evidence for similarity effects; more specifically, entrepreneurs do not suffer from employability devaluation when the recruiter is a part-time entrepreneur or the executive is the business owner. We discuss the implications as part of the employability debate about former entrepreneurs.     

Corporate social monitoring in South Africa: A decade of achievement,an uncertain future

Corporate social monitoring has reached its most systematic form and has had the most practical impact with regard to companies doing business in South Africa. The Sullivan Principles have guided the monitoring system for U.S. companies, of which about 166 remain in South Africa and about 140 have withdrawn. However, corporate social monitoring in South Africa is currently subject to certain tensions. The Rev. Sullivan has called for the withdrawal of U.S. companies, and has himself withdrawn from the monitoring effort.This paper discusses the economic climate for U.S. business in South Africa both historically and currently, the conflicting pressures experienced by U.S. companies remaining there, and the effectiveness of strategies aimed to create pressure for companies to withdraw, including divestment resolutions, purchasing restrictions, and sanctions.Current attempts to retain a form of corporate social monitoring are described. The potential politicization of the system is discussed, with particular attention paid to the formation of a new structure which could come to provide the moral leadership formerly provided by the Rev. Sullivan. However, corporate social monitoring could become confused with an anti-sanctions lobbying effort on the part of corporations, and would lose credibility if this were to occur.Karen Paul is an Associate Professor of Management at Rochester Institute of Technology. The research for her article was completed while she was 1987–88 Peace Fellow at the Bunting Institute of Radcliffe College, and was also supported by a Fulbright Senior Research Grant.     

Partitioning for Profit: An Empirical Study of Methods for Handling Unequal Costs of Error in Predictive Data Mining

This paper expands prior work on the Sequential Binary Programming (SBP) algorithm as a framework for cost-sensitive classification. The field of cost-sensitive learning has provided a number of methods to adapt predictive data mining from engineering and hard science applications to those in commerce. This discussion will test theoretical limitations of classical cost-sensitive algorithms empirically and outline the appropriate conditions under which various methods (specifically SBP) should be implemented in favor of others.     

Behavioral credit scoring model for technology-based firms that considers uncertain financial ratios obtained from relationship banking

The Korea government offers technology credit guarantee service to many technology-based small and medium enterprises (SMEs) suffering from funding problems. Many advanced application credit scoring models have been developed based on technology to reduce the high default rates of this service. However, a credit scoring model which can reflect changes in firms after a loan has been granted has not yet been developed. In the study reported here, we propose a behavioral credit scoring model that reflects the debt-paying ability of recipient firms, which is observed as a time series of financial ratios of firms via the relationship banking activities. We utilize this time series, as well as missing patterns of financial information, as additional predictors of loan defaults. We compare our proposed behavioral credit scoring models, fitted at different points of elapsed time, to the application credit scoring model. Finally, we suggest the best behavioral credit scoring model for technology-based SMEs. Our study can contribute to the reduction of the risk involved in credit funding for technology-based SMEs.