现行汇率安排下我国宏观经济的矛盾性及可能风险

2005年我国进行了人民币汇率制度改革,实行参考一篮子货币、有管理的浮动汇率制度,由于人民币盯住的一篮子货币中美元的权重占95％以上,因此实际上我国依然实行盯住美元的固定汇率制。低估的人民币汇率推动了经济增长,同时也使我国宏观调控陷入相互矛盾的困境,并可能引发经济滞胀风险。本文试对固定汇率制引发的宏观矛盾性问题及可能风险进行较深入的分析。     

美元欧元日元靠不住专家建言人民币汇率盯黄金

2005年7月21日，中国人民银行宣布，我国开始实行以市场供求为基础、参考一篮子货币进行调节、有管理的浮动汇率制度。人民币汇率不再盯住单一美元，形成更富弹性的人民币汇率机制。一时间，市场各方人士纷纷开始揣测这个”一篮子“货币的构成以及权重。     

三元悖论与人民币汇率机制改革

自2005年7月21日起,我国对人民币汇率形成机制实施改革,开始实行以市场供求为基础、参考一篮子货币进行调节、有管理的浮动汇率制度.这次改革的内容是:人民币汇率不再盯住单一美元,而是按照我国对外经济发展的实际情况,选择若干种主要货币,赋予相应的权重,组成一个货币篮子.同时,根据国内外经济金融形势,以市场供求为基础,参考一篮子货币计算人民币多边汇率指数的变化,对人民币汇率进行管理和调节,维护人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定.参考一篮子表明外币之间的汇率变化会影响人民币汇率,但参考一篮子不等于盯住一篮子货币,它还需要将市场供求关系作为另一重要依据,据此形成更富弹性的、有管理的浮动汇率.     

新汇率政策的长期影响

中国人民银行于7月21日宣布，将以市场需求为基础的有管理的浮动汇率制度，取代自1997年起实行的实际盯住美元的汇率制度。新制度将参考一篮子货币来确定汇率水平。在一篮子货币中．主导货币包括美元、欧元、日元和韩元．但它们的权重并没有对外公布。中央银行还将人民币对美元汇率调整为一美元兑8．11元人民币．比调整前升值了2．1％。     

美元贬值与中国对策——专访摩根斯坦利首席经济学家罗奇

在汇率方面，罗奇建议中国让人民币盯住一篮子货币，而不是单单盯住美元。这样．即使美元、欧元等西方主要货币汇率起伏动荡，人民币汇率也可以保持相对稳定。     

人民币升值应以主动、渐进、可控为原则——写在汇改两周年之际

2005年7月21日,人民币汇率形成机制改革迈出坚实一步。当日央行宣布,人民币对美元一次性升值2%,在此基础上,人民币汇率不再盯住单一美元,中国开始实行以市场供求为基础、参考一篮子货币进行调节、有管理的浮动汇率制度。     

汇率改革带来了什么？

7月21日，人民银行就改进人民币汇率形成机制发布公告，调整美元对人民币交易起始价格，并从单一盯住美元改为实行以市场供求为基础、参考一篮子货币进行调节、有管理的浮动汇率制度。改革以来，外汇市场运行发生了一些积极的变化。     

人民币升值对我国出品贸易的实际影响

2005年7月21日中国人民银行宣布放弃人民币盯住单一美元,实行以市场供求为基础、参考一篮子货币进行调节的、有管理的浮动汇率制度。到2007年2月,人民币币值已经突破1美元兑7．78元人民币。一般而言,汇率波动会阻碍一国对外贸易的发展,而国内学者也曾经预期人民币升值     

浅析人民币汇率制度改革

2005年7月21日,中国人民银行宣布对人民币汇率形成机制实施改革,开始实行以市场供求为基础、参考一篮子货币进行调节、有管理的浮动汇率制度,人民币对美元升值2%.这次改革的内容是:人民币汇率不再盯住单一美元,而是按照我国对外经济发展的实际情况,选择若干种主要货币,赋予相应的权重,组成一个货币篮子.同时,根据国内外经济金融形势,以市场供求为基础,参考一篮子货币计算人民币多边汇率指数的变化,对人民币汇率进行管理和调节,据此形成更富弹性的、有管理的浮动汇率.笔者结合克鲁格曼的"三元悖论",对本次汇率制度改革进行浅析.     

波兰和泰国汇率制度改革经验与启示

经济环境的变化决定着汇率制度的变迁。波兰转轨以来汇率制度相继选择了单一盯住美元、盯住一篮子货币、爬行区间浮动和自由浮动等形式。泰国二战至亚洲金融危机爆发前一直采用单一盯住美元的固定汇率制度。文章据此结合我国人民币汇率制度得出如下经验与启示：应牢牢把握汇率制度调整的主动权并渐进改革,协调好汇率制度与货币政策的关系,与汇率制度相配合有步骤地开放资本项目,加强金融监管尤其是加强对货币错配的审慎性监管等。     

Retrospect of the Chinese Exchange Rate Regime after Reform： Stylized Facts during the Period from 2005 to 2010

In the present paper, we estimate the de facto RMB exchange rate regime, the currency basket, the floating band and the foreign exchange market pressure before and after the reform of the Chinese exchange rate regime in 2005. We find the following stylized facts： the value of the RAIB became stable after the reform; the weight of the US dollar remained high in the basket, while other currencies remained statistically significant; and the floating band gradually increased to lO percent during 2005-2008, and then greatly narrowed from the late summer of 2008 under the assumption of a yearly resetting interval. We find that the foreign exchange market pressure increased from 2005 to 2008. A possible reason is that the weight of the US dollar in the basket was slightly lower than the share of the US dollar in total transactions on the Chinese foreign exchange market. Therefore, it is reasonable for China to adopt a dollar peg exchange rate regime.     

人民币汇率制度改革以及汇率波动性研究

自我国1978年改革开放以来,我国汇率制度的改革大体上经过了3个阶段:复汇率制度、单一有管理浮动汇率制度、参考"一篮子货币"有管理浮动汇率制度。本文着重讲述了这三个阶段汇率制度的改革情况,分析了人民币兑美元的汇率走势,并对汇率波动性进行实证研究,然后指出我国汇率制度当前存在的问题,以及针对这些问题提出改革的下一步路径。     

Managing the renminbi: should China peg to a trade‐weighted basket?

Pegging the renminbi (RMB) to the US dollar since 1994 has characterised China's exchange rate policy under a fixed peg or appreciating crawling peg. The current policy, announced in June 2010, of ‘floating with reference to a basket’ made the RMB 25 per cent stronger against a trade‐weighted basket by early August 2015, while it was 10 per cent stronger against the US dollar. Thus, 14 percentage points arose from changes in the cross rates of the other currencies, notably from the fall of the euro since December 2014. Devaluation of the RMB by 3 per cent in August 2015 just covered the effective appreciation since December 2014. Effects of the cross rates of other currencies could be eliminated by managing the external value of the RMB with reference to a genuine trade‐weighted basket. This could be a suitable intermediary exchange rate regime for China, as the risks associated with free floating are still great. Diversifying further the currency composition of the foreign exchange reserves and other foreign assets of the Chinese government, from US dollars towards euro and yen assets, would be a natural parallel shift. The euro–US dollar–yen exchange rates in late summer 2015 may offer a good opportunity to carry out this move.     

Dynamic Transition of Exchange Rate Regime in China

Thepaper considers the optimal transition path for China＇s exchange rate regime. How can China successfully make the shift from the current dollar peg regime to a more desirable regime, whether a basket peg or a floating regime？ To answer this question, we develop a dynamic small open economy general equilibrium model. We construct four transition policies based on a basket peg or a floating regime and compare the welfare gains of these policies relative to maintaining the dollar peg regime. Two main results are derived from the quantitative analysis using Chinese data from 1999Q1 to 2010Q4. First, following a gradual adjustment to a basket peg regime is the most appropriate path for China to take, with minimal welfare losses associated with the shift in the exchange rate regime. Second, a sudden shift to the basket peg is the second best solution, and is superior to a sudden shift to floating because the monetary authority can efficiently determine optimal weights to attach to currencies in the basket to achieve policy goals once they adopt a basket peg regime.     

从变迁历史看人民币汇率制度改革新思路

本文介绍了人民币汇率制度的变迁历程,主要包括改革开放前的起步阶段、可调整固定汇率钉住制、钉住货币篮子和改革开放后的汇率双轨制及两种不同的有管理的浮动汇率制度。通过对历史上汇率制度的探讨和我国现状的分析,笔者认为我国汇率制度的改革应沿着"有管理的浮动汇率制—爬行钉住制—浮动汇率制"这条道路稳步发展,随着人民币汇率波动的逐步加大,人民币汇率制度最终过渡到浮动汇率制度。     

Re‐pegging the renminbi to a basket: issues and implications

On 19 June 2010, the Chinese authorities announced that the renminbi (RMB) was henceforth to be managed with reference to a currency basket. Yet, it has subsequently quite closely followed the USD, although having appreciated gradually by 7.7 per cent up to the time of writing. The details of the composition of the basket have not been announced. Despite having appreciated against the USD, the RMB became first significantly weaker against a broad trade‐weighted basket, and the EUR and the JPY, and this situation held until September 2011. China has announced at international forums that the RMB exchange rate regime will be reformed further. We discuss here what a transparent basket peg could mean for China. To reduce the overall volatility of the RMB exchange rate, the weight for the EUR should be significantly increased, with the special drawing right basket being one option for practical implementation. This would also have a positive impact on the EU. China's currency reform has possible implications for its USD‐dominated asset holdings. Reducing them could trigger a further depreciation of the USD. The potentially costly consequences call for new rules for the global financial architecture. However, China's economic expansion will inevitably lead to a diminishing international role for the USD.     

Renminbi Exchange Rate: Peg to A Wide Band Currency Basket

Persistent renminbi (RMB) devaluation expectations are one of the greatest threats to China's macroeconomic stability. Market interventions backed by huge foreign exchange reserves and capital controls are not sufficient to eliminate the expectations of devaluation. Creating a market‐based and flexible RMB exchange rate regime holds the key to the elimination of devaluation expectations. The present paper compares the pros and cons of several policy options, and proposes to introduce, as a transition to free floating, a new exchange rate regime pegged to a currency basket with a wide band. The new regime should be able to give the RMB exchange rate enough flexibility to eliminate devaluation expectations as well as prevent excessive overshooting. To ensure a smooth transition, the new regime needs to be supported by controlling cross‐border capital flows.     

基于人民币国际化视角的人民币汇率形成机制改革问题研究

本文从人民币国际化的研究视角,分析货币国际化与汇率形成机制之间的内在联系,并通过人民币与美元、欧元、日元等主要货币的国际化程度的比较,揭示人民币国际化尚处在起步阶段,人民币汇率形成机制改革是直接影响人民币国际化进程的重要因素。在此基础上,本文探讨了人民币汇率形成机制为何采取钉住一篮子货币的改革方案,继而提出推进人民币汇率形成机制改革,促进人民币国际化的若干政策建议。     

中美汇率之争的三个核心问题

中美汇率之争的三个核心问题是:第一,中国应该采用何种汇率制度?在这一问题上,美国政府提出了"浮动汇率制最优论"的伪命题,这一观点显然违背了经济学的常识。第二,人民币是否应该升值?这一问题的答案取决于中国贸易顺差是起因于低劳动力成本竞争优势还是起因于人民币汇率低估。如果是前者,那么美国没有理由要求人民币升值。第三,人民币升值会如何影响中美经济?本论文强调其长期影响要明显大于短期影响。就长期影响而言,人民币过度升值会缩短中国高速经济增长的可持续时间。     

论人民币汇率制度改革

自2005年7月21日起,我国开始实行以市场供求为基础、参考一篮子货币进行调整的、有管理的浮动汇率制度。但是改革才刚刚开始,人民币汇率形成机制尚不完善,在这种情况下,汇率制度进一步的调整与改革是必要的。本文在基于我国经济开放的背景下,讨论了我国现行人民币汇率制度的特点、积极方面和存在的不足,在考虑制约人民币汇率制度进一步改革的因素后,提出了汇率制度进一步改革的方向、目标和相应的对策选择。