Competitive effects of Basel II on US bank credit card lending

We analyze the potential competitive effects of the proposed Basel II capital regulations on US bank credit card lending. We find that bank issuers operating under Basel II will face higher regulatory capital minimums than Basel I banks, with differences due to the way the two regulations treat reserves and gain-on-sale of securitized assets. During periods of normal economic conditions, this is not likely to have a competitive effect; however, during periods of substantial stress in credit card portfolios, Basel II banks could face a significant competitive disadvantage relative to Basel I banks and nonbank issuers.     

Effects of the New Basel Capital Accord on Bank Capital Requirements for SMEs

Using data from three countries (US, Italy and Australia) and surveying related studies from several other countries in Europe, we investigate the effects of the New Basel Capital Accord on bank capital requirements for small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs). We find that, for all the countries, banks will have significant benefits, in terms of lower capital requirements, when considering small and medium sized firms as retail customers. But they will be obliged to use the Advanced IRB approach and to manage them on a pooled basis. For SMEs as corporate, however, capital requirements will be slightly greater than under the existing Basel I Capital Accord. We believe that most eligible banks will use a blended approach (considering some SMEs as retail and some as corporate). Through a breakeven analysis, we find that for all of our countries, banking organizations will be obliged to classify as retail at least 20% of their SME portfolio in order to maintain the current capital requirement (8%). JEL classification: G21, G28     

Credit Risk Versus Capital Requirements under Basel II: Are SME Loans and Retail Credit Really Different?

Under Basel II, retail and SME credit (R&SME) receive special treatment because of a supposedly smaller exposure to systemic risk. Most research on this issue has been based on parameterized credit risk models. We present new evidence by applying Carey's (Carey, Mark. “Credit Risk in Private Debt Portfolios.” Journal of Finance 53, no. 4 (1998), 1363–1387.) nonparametric Monte-Carlo resampling method to two banks' complete loan portfolios. By exploiting that a sub-sample of all borrowers has been assigned an internal rating by both banks, we can compare the credit loss distributions for the three credit types, and compute both economic and regulatory capital under Basel II. We also test if our conclusions are sensitive to the definitions of R&SME credit. Our findings show that R&SME portfolios are usually riskier than corporate credit. Special treatment under Basel II is thus not justified. JEL classification: C14, C15, G21, G28, G33.     

The Impact of Basel II on Lending to Small- and Medium-Sized Firms: A Regulatory Policy Assessment Based on Spanish Credit Register Data

The objective of this paper is to evaluate the impact on bank credit exposures to small- and medium-sized Spanish firms of the current proposal for reform of the 1988 Capital Accord using information from the Spanish Credit Register. Capital requirements for exposures to those firms, according to the various revisions of the proposed capital reform (from the January 2001 consultative document to the April 2003 one), are calculated to analyze whether the existing pattern of bank financing of small- and medium-sized firms might be altered. Finally, the incentives for individual banks to adopt the advanced internal ratings-based approach proposed by Basel II are evaluated.     

Financial stability and Basel II

The Basel II Advanced Internal Ratings (AIRB) approach is compared to capital requirements set using an equilibrium structural credit risk model. Analysis shows the AIRB approach undercapitalizes credit risk relative to regulatory targets and allows wide variation in capital requirements for a given exposure owing to ambiguity in the definitions of loss given default and exposure at default. In contrast, the Foundation Internal Ratings Based (FIRB) approach may over-capitalize credit risk relative to supervisory objectives. It is unclear how Basel II will buttress financial sector stability as it specifies the weakest regulatory capital standard for large complex AIRB banks.      

A Critique of Revised Basel II

This paper critiques the revised Basel II capital requirements for banks. To provide a framework for analysis, the XYZ theory of regulatory capital is formulated. Independent of the XYZ theory, we argue that the revised Basel II capital rule for credit risk is not a good approximation to the ideal rule. Based on this, and using the XYZ theory, we argue that: (1) the revised Basel II rules should not replace the existing approaches for determining minimal capital standards, but should be used in conjunction with them, and (2) that calibrating the capital rules to maintain aggregate market capital is a prudent procedure.     

The cyclical effects of the Basel II capital requirements

Capital requirements play a key role in the supervision and regulation of banks. The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision is in the process of changing the current framework by introducing risk sensitive capital charges. Some fear that this will unduly increase the volatility of regulatory capital. Furthermore, by limiting the banks’ ability to lend, capital requirements may exacerbate an economic downturn. The paper examines the problem of capital-induced lending cycles and their pro-cyclical effect on the macroeconomy in greater detail. It finds that the capital buffer that banks hold on top of the required minimum capital plays a crucial role in mitigating the impact of the volatility of capital requirements.     

次贷危机对新资本协议实施的影响

本文以风险管理为切入点,讨论次贷危机与新资本协议之间的关系,试图回答业界对新资本协议制度合理性的某些质疑。与1988年资本协议相比,新资本协议建立了更具灵活性、适应性和前瞻性的资本监管制度,赋予资本充足率更加丰富的风险管理内涵,为商业银行改进风险管理提供了正向激励;次贷危机不仅未否认新资本协议的合理性,反而进一步凸现了全面实施新资本协议的重要性;新资本协议应顺应金融创新的趋势,吸取次贷危机的教训,做出适应性调整;虽然实施新资本协议不可能阻止金融危机再度发生,但可以提升银行体系应对外部冲击的能力,至少可以缓解未来金融危机的破坏力,从而提高社会福利。     

次贷危机对中国推行新巴塞尔协议的启示

通过分析次贷危机中商业银行扮演的角色,以及新旧资本协议的比较,说明新资本协议的制度先进性、适应性和前瞻性.次贷危机不仅未否认新资本协议,反而进一步凸现了全面实施新资本协议的重要性.严格执行新资本协议未必能阻止金融危机的爆发,但至少可以缓解危机的破坏力,从而提升金融系统的稳定性.中国宜加快推进新巴塞尔协议,资产证券化是一个很好的切入点.     

Regulatory Capital Arbitrage and the Potential Competitive Impact of Basel II in the Market for Residential Mortgages

U.S. banking regulators have proposed a bifurcated system of capital regulation where the largest, internationally active banking organizations would be subject to significantly more risk sensitive regulatory capital requirements than are currently in place, while most others would remain subject to the current rules. The proposed new capital regime has the potential to affect the competitive landscape among banking institutions, particularly in the area of residential mortgage lending. We analyze the potential competitive effects of the proposed, bifurcated regulatory capital system on competition in the residential mortgage market from the perspective of the theory of regulatory capital arbitrage. We then apply the theory and available evidence to perform some benchmark calculations that suggest a significant, potential shift of market share and income to the largest banking institutions in the mortgage market.

Modelling Credit Risk for SMEs: Evidence from the U.S. Market

Considering the fundamental role played by small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) in the economy of many countries and the considerable attention placed on SMEs in the new Basel Capital Accord, we develop a distress prediction model specifically for the SME sector and to analyse its effectiveness compared to a generic corporate model. The behaviour of financial measures for SMEs is analysed and the most significant variables in predicting the entities' credit worthiness are selected in order to construct a default prediction model. Using a logit regression technique on panel data of over 2,000 U.S. firms (with sales less than $65 million) over the period 1994–2002, we develop a one-year default prediction model. This model has an out-of-sample prediction power which is almost 30 per cent higher than a generic corporate model. An associated objective is to observe our model's ability to lower bank capital requirements considering the new Basel Capital Accord's rules for SMEs.     

《巴塞尔III最终方案》的影响及应对

《巴III最终方案》致力于提高银行风险加权资产计量的审慎性、一致性、可比性和透明度,主要对有关信用风险、市场风险、操作风险、信用估值调整的计量方法又进行了一定的改进,并且进一步明确提出了资本底线、杠杆率缓冲等方面的要求。巴塞尔委员会的全球定量影响测算显示,新监管规则对各组银行的影响不尽相同,一些银行还将面临资本缺口。由于我国银行资本监管较为严格,各项监管规则修订的影响相互抵消后,对我国银行业资本充足水平的整体影响可能并不大,但考虑到各银行的异质性,不同银行实际受影响程度会呈现差异。为此,我国银行业需坚持实行严格而科学的资本管理,合理确定过渡期,避免对银行风险管控能力、宏观经济和金融稳定产生较大冲击。     

商业银行规模与中小企业信贷融资问题综述

近年来,中小企业融资难这一世界性问题已得到广泛关注。国内外学者从不同的角度对这一问题进行了分析与研究,银行规模对中小企业信贷融资的影响分析是中小企业融资问题的一个重要方面。基于此,本文系统回顾和梳理了国内外关于商业银行规模对中小企业信贷融资影响的相关研究成果,并对该领域展望了进一步的研究方向。希望能够为学者更加深入研究此问题时提供有益的参考,从而有利于我国商业银行治理结构的优化调整,改善中小企业贷款难问题。     

The effect of private investments on banks' capital requirements

A simple leverage ratio restriction is not efficient because it does not discriminate between risky and safe banks. We use a structural and comprehensive model of the firm's asset growth to describe the equity buy-out portfolios' stylized facts for two types of banks. We derive a leverage ratio that depends on the level of risky investments, and balances between the spread on such investments, the cost of capital and the overall power of the supervisor to enforce the capital requirements. This method is more transparent and requires fewer parameters than other commonly used methods. We obtain an incentive-compatible constraint on banks to carry the minimal adequate amount of capital. This constraint enhances the supervisors' ability to enforce the rules ex post, and provide banks with a further incentive to reveal their risk type truthfully.     

中国银行业实施逆周期资本缓冲工具研究

基于《各国监管当局实施逆周期资本缓冲指引》,依据中国金融机构信贷和宏观经济数据,采用“信贷余额/GDP”指标,计算需要计提逆周期资本缓冲的时期和数量,检验逆周期资本缓冲工具对中国银行业的有效性。针对模型与中国国情不符问题,宜将信贷/GOP 指标与相关经济指标配合使用,将系统风险变动作为衡量标准,同时注意与宏观政策的配合。     

新资本协议试点对我国中小银行的影响分析

本文针对我国中小银行参与新资本协议试点可能对其产生的影响建立模型,利用博弈论及比较静态分析方法对实施IRB法前后的利率、竞争格局及风险进行了分析,发现在不同的市场竞争条件下,实施IRB法对利率影响不同;实施IRB的银行不一定总能获得优势,但是不会受到大的损失.而不实施的银行也有可能获得优势,但更可能遭受大的损失.实施IRB后,银行业风险可能出现转移和集中,同时甚至有增大整体风险的可能.     

社区银行视角下村镇银行可持续发展研究——以宁夏为例

社区银行作为一类成功的银行业金融机构,市场定位明确,经营机制灵活,经营效绩突出。本文通过对社区银行经营特点的研究,揭示了社区银行的竞争优势,并以宁夏为例,在分析宁夏村镇银行发展现状、经营效绩和制约因素的基础上,探讨了村镇银行可持续发展的思路。     

信用风险缓释工具在商业银行中的风险缓释效果研究

对13家美国银行的年度面板数据进行量化分析发现:信用风险缓释工具的使用并不直接表现出风险加权资产及整体银行风险的下降,而是表现为在风险一定的情况下银行可以发放更多的贷款.在剔除了过度投机因素后,银行可增加约63％的目标贷款额.     

对城市商业银行发展绿色信贷的思考

《绿色信贷指引》的发布将银行业监管推向一个新的历史发展高度。以"绿色发展"理念为基础的绿色信贷对国内城市商业银行的发展既是挑战也是机遇,城商行短期利益的调整,股东价值最大化发展理念的冲突,城商行在风险管理体系、组织管理体系上的不足将成为制约绿色信贷发展的重要原因。但是,顺应经济发展方式转型,适应"绿色发展"的理念是城商行积极发展绿色信贷的重要推动力;提前规划、优化组织管理体系、研发设计特色信贷产品、加强外部合作是城商行积极发展绿色信贷的重要措施。