论我国开放式基金赎回风险的成因及其防范

自从我国第一只开放式基金发行以来,开放式基金的发展一直受到赎回的严重制约,本文对影响开放式基金赎回行为的因素进行全面深入的分析,为基金管理人控制赎回规模,减少流动性风险,稳定证券市场提供相关规避对策.     

从大比例赎回反思我国开放式基金的营销模式

目前我国开放式基金净赎回现象比较突出,流动性风险凸显,已危及到基金业的健康发展.因此,重新思考基金的营销模式,避免大比例赎回,就成为业界普遍关心的问题.本文致力于从营销角度对国内开放式基金的净赎回现象进行分析,并为基金管理人控制赎回规模、减少流动性风险提供了切实可行的对策建议.     

我国开放式基金流动性风险的防范研究

针对我国目前开放式基金业面临的巨额赎回所造成的流动性风险,通过对开放式基金的流动性风险成因进行分析,提出防范流动性风险的方法:针对投资者的不同需求,设计多种个性化基金及赎回方式,使开放式基金的负债与资产的流动性和收益性相匹配,达到事前有效防范流动性风险的目的。     

开放式基金流动性风险及其管理

自从我国开放式基金成立以来,基金份额的持续性大规模赎回就是基金管理人所面临的一个严峻问题。开放式基金在遭遇大规模赎回时,如果现金不足,就只有被迫将资产变现以应付赎回,在此过程中不可避免的要承受流动性损失,由此也会造成市场的波动。基金份额的巨额赎回会给开放式基金带来严重的流动性风险,甚至可能导致基金清盘,它已成为了阻碍我国开放式基金健康发展的一个不可忽视的因素。一、开放式基金流动性风险的内涵流动性是指金融资产持有者按该资产的价值或接近其价值出售的容易程度。对于开放式基金而言,流动性就是指基金管理人在面对赎回压力时,将其所持有的资产——投资组合在市场中变现的能力。或者说开放式基金流动性风险也就是指其所持资产在变现过程中价格的不确定性和可能遭受的损失。因此,开放式基金流动性风险与它所持有的资产——投资组合的流动性之间存在着显著的正相关。赎回风险特指当基金面临投资者大额赎回时,无法及时将资产变现可能带来的资产和声誉损失。流动性风险除赎回风险外,还包括基金资产在交易中存在的无法变现风险,如股票跌停板等等。一般而言,流动性风险的大小取决于两方面因素,从资金的供给角度看,取决于股票市场和货币市场;从资金需求的角度看,则要看...     

开放式证券投资基金的结构、流动性需求和基金经理管理能力关系分析

发展了一个数学模型对开放式证券投资基金最理想的规模和管理费用比率进行定量分析。结论为 :(1 )最理想的基金规模随着基金经理的投资管理能力的提高而增大 ,而与流动性赎回成本因子和流动性赎回波动性平方成反比关系 ;(2 )最理想的管理费用比率随着基金经理投资管理能力的提高而增大 ;(3)开放式证券投资基金可以通过提高赎回费用比率 ,并且降低管理费用比率以提高投资者到期收益率来降低流动性赎回需求 ,从而减少非预期赎回需求的总成本     

开放式基金流动性风险及其管理

自从我国开放式基金成立以来,基金份额的持续性大规模赎回就是基金管理人所面临的一个严峻问题.开放式基金在遭遇大规模赎回时,如果现金不足,就只有被迫将资产变现以应付赎回,在此过程中不可避免的要承受流动性损失,由此也会造成市场的波动.基金份额的巨额赎回会给开放式基金带来严重的流动性风险,甚至可能导致基金清盘,它已成为了阻碍我国开放式基金健康发展的一个不可忽视的因素.     

开放式基金流动性风险对金融稳定的影响

流动性风险对金融机构以及金融体系的冲击在此次美国次贷危机中充分显现。对于我国而言，类似的流动性风险集中体现在开放式基金领域。一旦投资者预期发生变化，基金的大面积赎回可能导致开放式基金的流动性风险，并引发“基金赎回—股价下跌—赎回放大－股价进一步下跌”的恶性循环，从而影响金融稳定。因此应做好应对准备，以维护股票市场的平稳健康发展。     

加强开放式基金的流动性管理

除了面对日常的赎回申请外，当市场发生变化时，开放式基金还需要准备好应付巨额赎回。尽管对于巨额赎回，基金管理人根据基金契约可以采取相应的暂缓接受赎回申请的缓冲保护措施，但保持基金运作的流动性仍是开放式基金管理的重点。     

中国开放式基金赎回行为及其风险防范研究

我国开放式基金自2001年成立起就一直保持着快速迅猛的发展趋势。但-9此同时,开放式基金也在不断遭受着“赎回异象”的困扰,即业绩表现差的基金遭受投资者的追捧,业绩表现好的基金反而遭受更多的赎回。本文通过合并数据方法和Fama—Macbeth方法对我国开放式基金赎回问题进行实证分析,检验我国开放式基金赎回的影响因素,并利用倒向随机微分方程推导基金管理公司期初现金预留比例以防范赎回导致的流动性风险。     

关于国内偏股型开放式基金投资者申购赎回行为有效性的研究

本文利用国内偏股型开放式基金的季度申购赎回数据对基金投资者申购赎回行为的有效性进行了研究,证实了＂聪明钱＂效应（＂smart money＂effect）的存在。剔除基金管理人限制申购等非投资者因素造成的影响后,本文利用2008年至2013年期间可比的218只偏股型基金的申购赎回数据构造资金加权组合,并对不同组合的超额收益情况进行比较,结果未发现投资者的申购赎回行为具有有效性。相反,在对不同星级评级的基金进行比较后,发现五星级以及三星级基金中投资者的申购赎回行为具有显著的负向有效性,反映了国内开放式基金＂赎回异象＂的存在。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…     

银行管理信息平台建设发展的思考

一、目前国内银行IT发展现状及面临的问题 银行数据集中工作的完成,标志着银行的业务由电子化建设阶段转入信息化建设阶段.一方面银行数据的集中提供了丰富全面的基础数据,面对日益庞大的数据源,如何将数字转化为对银行有用的信息,并从中发现知识,为银行的经营决策提供支持,是摆在银行IT人员面前的一个亟待解决的问题.另一方面用户对银行信息的需求日益增长,如果银行没有一套完整、实用的信息管理系统,将对业务发展非常不利.南京爱立信公司倒戈花旗银行事件曾经轰动一时,其中一个重要原因就是中国本地银行不能满足爱立信全球总部对南京爱立信公司的要求:每周财务上报和每天贷款限额管理.这一事件为中国商业银行的未来发展敲响了警钟,如果不加快管理信息系统的开发,迅速提升业务管理水平,类似的事件还会接连不断地发生,并最终导致国内商业银行在同国外商业银行的竞争中全面溃败.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.