Urban development,excessive entry of firms and wage inequality in developing countries

This paper examines the short and long-term effects of urbanisation, via favourable urban development policies, on income distribution and social welfare for a developing country, in which the urban manufacturing sector is characterised by imperfect competition and free entry. Urbanisation shifts rural workers to the highly productive urban sector, while causing production in urban firms to expand because of scale economies. However, urbanisation may worsen wage inequality between skilled and unskilled labour in the short term. In the long term, urbanisation can attract new firms to the urban sector and favourable urban development policies may result in excessive entry of firms, which can amplify wage inequality in the economy. This entry-amplifying effect is confirmed empirically, especially for low and lower-middle-income countries. If the entry effect is not considered, the impact of urbanisation on wage inequality could be understated by 13% for low and lower-middle-income countries.     

What Drives India's Surge in Service Exports?

India's prowess in the service sector has been recognised the world over. Sustaining services exports is important not only to sustain India's high growth rate but also to compensate for a consistent deficit in merchandise trade and to maintain stability on the external sector. In this context, we analyse the factors of India's performance in services exports over the past three decades. The results reveal that endowment factors such as human capital, improvement in physical infrastructure and financial development are key drivers for India's surge in services exports along with world demand, exchange rate and manufacturing exports. While factors such as institutions, R&D expenditure, telecommunication, foreign direct investment and financial development significantly impact the export of modern services, traditional services exports are more dependent on infrastructure development, manufacturing exports, world demand and exchange rate. India's economic reforms in the financial sector, FDI, communication so far have helped the services exports, but India needs to focus on supply‐side factors to improve the competitiveness – and thereby volume – of services exports.     

Transition,regulation and trade in services

Market-oriented reforms launched at the beginning of the 1990s have had a profound impact on the restructuring of the service sector in transition economies. Reforms have introduced complex regulatory changes that substantially diminished the barriers to competition in services, thereby improving the supply of services. The article explores the patterns and effects of regulatory changes in the Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) on services exports in the period 1993–2004. The econometric analysis finds a statistically significant impact of the regulatory reforms on service exports. The effects are more significant for the period 1999–2004 and seem to suggest that efficient implementation of reforms during the accession process had beneficial consequences also for service exports. However, there is enough room for the CEECs to dismantle further the obstacles to services provision and to improve the governance of the service markets within the internal market for services.     

Financial Sector Volatility,Banking Market Structure and Exports

This paper assesses the impacts of financial sector volatility and banking market structure on industrial exports. By utilising the specification of Rajan and Zingales (American Economic Review 1998; 88 , 559) on the cross‐country, cross‐industry data from Manova (Journal of International Economics 2008; 76 , 33), we find that financial sector volatility, measured as the standard deviation of the growth of private credit, and banking market structure, measured as the share of the three largest banks’ assets in a country, respectively exert significantly negative and positive impacts on industrial exports, particularly for those industries that are more externally financially dependent. The findings are robust to a variety of kinds of sensitivity analysis and thus lend support to the notion that a more stable and concentrated banking system is important to the exports of those industries that rely more on external finance.     

Does foreign investment benefit the exporting activities of Vietnamese firms?

Using firm-level data, this paper examines the effects of foreign investment on the exporting behaviour of domestic firms in the Vietnamese manufacturing and service sectors. Applying the Heckman selection model on panel data and following the Wooldridge approach, we find that investment by foreign firms has a significant positive effect on the decision of domestic firms in the same and upstream sectors to export. The proportion of exports of domestic firms declines through horizontal and forward linkages, but increases through backward linkages in the manufacturing sector. However, there is only weak evidence in support of export spillovers on domestic firms in the service sector. We also find that the presence of foreign firms has differing effects on the exporting activities of low- versus high-tech firms in the manufacturing sector.     

External Sector Adjustment

ABSTRACT

Since 1981 Malawi has been undergoing an extensive economic adjustment programme. A key aim has been to diversify and increase exports. This aim has met with little success. To understand why export businesses have failed to respond to exchange rate changes and other incentives we conducted an export business survey of 51 firms and interviewed government officials, private sector representatives, and IMF and World Bank staff. We found that structural rigidities, particularly infrastructure constraints, are so severe that the impact of exchange rate policies and other incentives on external sector adjustment is very limited. Increased policy attention should therefore be paid to these constraints if the adjustment programme is to succeed.     

Export externalities and economic growth

Feder formulated the first model with an explicit mechanism connecting international trade and economic growth. We present new econometric estimates of this unique model for 30 developing countries studied by Feder. We replicate Feder's 1964?–?73 cross-section estimates for 1974?–?83 and 1984?–?93 and find that the export variables lose significance and that the model has less explanatory power overall. We also try to improve on time-series estimates by Ram and find that the coefficient of Feder's total factor productivity differential in favour of the export sector was positive and significant for 18 of the 30 countries. The export externality coefficient proved to be positive and significant in 13 countries although significant multicollinearity occurs in the regressions for eight of the 13. Comparisons of the results among countries suggest that the impact of exports on growth depends on population size, trade orientation, and the importance of manufacturing.     

Impact of services trade on economic growth and current account balance: Evidence from India

This paper aims to study the impact of services trade on India’s economic growth and current account balance during the post-reform period. Earlier studies on this subject have mostly looked at the goods sector. Indian studies which analysed services-led growth from a balance of payments perspective suffered from a bias of having focused only on call-centre exports. In such a context, this study brings in a novel approach by using the Balance of Payments Constrained Growth model and autoregressive distributed lag cointegration to estimate the balance of payments equilibrium growth rate for India’s service sector. The key service sub-sectors are also identified using input–output tables and the TIVA database. This study finds that India’s service sector is growing at a rate almost equal to its balance of payments equilibrium growth rate under the assumption of constant relative prices in international trade, and at a rate lower than the equilibrium growth rate when this assumption is relaxed. Among the major services in India’s export basket, construction, transport and business services are found to exhibit strong backward linkages. Foreign value-added content in India’s services exports is found to be highest in the case of business services, transport services and telecommunications.     

Producer Services, Manufacturing Linkages, and Trade

Working with a mix of panel data on goods and services trade for the OECD for 1994–2004, combined with social accounts data (i.e. data on intermediate linkages) for 78 countries benchmarked to the panel midpoint, we examine the role of services as inputs in manufacturing, with a particular focus on indirect exports of services through merchandise exports, and also on the related interaction between service sector openness and the overall pattern of manufacturing exports. From the cross-section, we also develop a set of stylized facts linking services to the level of development and the density of intermediate linkages. We find significant and strong positive effects from increased business service openness (i.e. greater levels of imports) on industries like machinery, motor vehicles, chemicals and electric equipment, supporting the notion that off-shoring of business services may promote the competitiveness of the most skill and technology intensive industries in the OECD. Conversely, we find evidence of negative general equilibrium effects for sectors that are less service intensive.     

加工贸易的就业效应 ——基于行业面板数据的检验

本文利用2001²008年行业动态面板GMM模型检验了中国加工贸易的就业效应,检验结果显示加工贸易的就业效应存在滞后性,不论是当期加工贸易进口还是出口对就业拉动作用并不明显;而分部门的回归结果表明加工贸易的就业效应存在明显的部门差异,劳动密集型部门和资源密集型部门加工贸易发展的就业效应相对比较显著,但是技术密集型部门加工贸易发展对就业的影响非常弱。     

Movies and the Mystery of the Missing Trade: Is Hollywood Good for U.S. Exporters?

Research has shown that consumers have a preference for goods based on the origin of production. This is important because it suggests that, in some cases, even lowering trade barriers may not significantly increase trade flows. In particular, flows may be lower than are predicted by trade theories such as Heckscher-Ohlin. Despite evidence that home consumption bias exists in many countries, it is only recently that research has begun to examine the sources of this bias.

This article fills a gap in the literature by testing a model that addresses the source of this consumption bias. The paper's model incorporates consumers' exposure to foreign products and culture through media imports and tourist visits as factors affecting consumers' preferences for foreign products. Using panel data from 19 countries, the article's results support the hypothesis that lagged exports of U.S. movies have a positive impact on other U.S. exports. Some evidence is also found of a positive effect of tourist visits on U.S. exports.

Since U.S. media exports may generate demand for other U.S. goods and services, opening up foreign media markets should receive a higher priority in U.S. trade negotiations. Another interesting implication of the paper is that overall U.S. export losses resulting from media piracy may be lower than previously calculated, as the consumption of pirated media products may increase demand for other U.S. exports.     

出口是否影响了城市的能源效率?--基于中国281个城市的实证研究

运用包含非期望产出的DEA-SBM方法,测算了中国281个地级及以上城市的能源效率,并进一步考察了出口对城市能源效率的影响。研究发现,出口显著地促进了城市能源效率的提升,这一效应在标准煤与电力消耗指标的检验中是一致的。对子样本的研究发现,中低收入城市、大型城市、沿海城市和资源型城市的出口增长对能源效率的促进作用更大。此外,还证实了出口可通过技术效应和结构效应影响城市能源效率。技术效应表明,出口可以通过提升研发技术与污染处理技术促进城市能源效率提升。结构效应表明,不同出口结构对能源效率的影响存在差异:一般贸易条件下的出口对城市能源效率的促进作用要大于加工贸易,民营企业、外资企业出口对城市能源效率的促进作用要大于国有企业。     

The Impact of Services Trade Restrictiveness on Trade Flows

This paper uses recent OECD data on services trade restrictions (STRI) to analyse the relationship between services trade policies and cross‐border trade in services. A standard gravity model is enhanced by the STRI indices in a cross‐section regression analysis. Services trade restrictions are negatively associated with both imports and exports of services. The surprisingly strong effect on services exports is probably explained by a negative relationship between the STRIs and sector performance indicators. Consequently, services suppliers from less open countries are less competitive abroad. Bilateral differences in regulation are also found to curtail services trade over and above the impact of the trade liberalisation level. At the margin, regulatory differences have a larger effect on trade flows the lower the level of the STRI.     

Does the US EXIM Bank really promote US exports?

This paper investigates the impact of US Export‐Import Bank (EXIM ) on US exports particularly in the wake of international competition from foreign national export credit agencies (ECA s). We employ a gravity framework on a country‐industry‐year‐level panel data set that matches EXIM authorisations with US bilateral exports. Our results depict the general ineffectiveness of the Bank in promoting exports within and across industries. Some heterogeneities behind the general finding are also uncovered: industries other than aerospace parts and products are more likely to benefit from EXIM authorisations, and EXIM authorisations to larger businesses seem to be more effective in encouraging exports. Furthermore, we find no evidence that EXIM encourages US exports by offsetting foreign ECA competition. These results are neither affected by competing countries’ membership to the OECD Arrangement nor by the size of American firms that received EXIM support. Our results cast doubt on the ubiquitously positive claims made by the Bank and its supporters, yet also provide policy lessons for countries that are either in the inception stages of establishing their own ECA s or are now placing greater importance on ECA financing in encouraging exports.     

Asymmetric effects of exchange rate movements on traditional and modern services exports: Evidence from a large emerging economy

The service sector in India has emerged as the ‘new engine of growth’ with an increasing share in output and exports. In this paper we analyse the effect of real exchange rate movements on service exports of India, incorporating goods exports, financial development, FDI inflows, world demand and the role of globalization as drivers. We find that while traditional service exports are negatively and significantly affected by the real exchange rate movements, the modern service exports are negatively but not significantly affected. By applying the asymmetric cointegration approach, the results also confirm the non-existence of any asymmetric relationship between the real exchange rate and service exports in India. Further, the results also show that the supply augmenting and demand-side factors are more dominant than the exchange rate to affect service exports from India.     

外商直接投资对中国商品进出口影响的实证分析

本文采用贸易引力模型,结合混合回归分析与横截面分析两种方法,对1992年至2004年外商对华直接投资对中国商品进出口、出口、进口的影响进行了实证分析。混合回归结果表明,外商对华直接投资对中国商品进出口、出口、进口的增长均存在长期且显著的促进作用,而且这种促进作用存在时滞。横截面分析结果表明,每年外商对华直接投资对于中国商品进出口、出口、进口的促进作用随着时间的推移是波动的,但从总趋势来看,这种促进作用在不断增强。     

中印纺织品服装出口竞争优势的实证研究

中国和印度劳动力资源都比较丰富,在劳动密集型产品出口方面有一定的比较优势。在纺织品服装贸易领域,印度一直对中国影响比较大。随着中国生产要素成本的不断提高、人民币升值的步伐加快,中国纺织产业国际竞争压力日益凸现。因此,借鉴印度纺织产业的成功模式,提升中国纺织产业竞争力正成为人们关注的热点。     

Exports in the strategy of multinational enterprises

Using data from a sample of 329 multinational firms, this paper analyses the impact of increases in foreign production on exports from the parent firm. The relationship between internal exports and foreign production is positive at all feasible levels of foreign production, although the impact on extra-group exports may be negative. These effects may be swamped by changes in relative international competitiveness between firms of the same nationality and industry group. The importance of these findings for multinational firms is that anticipation of these effects can reduce costs of reallocation of resources for the parent, firm and the results illustrate the wide remaining scope for further internationalization even among the world's largest firms. The impact of foreign production on home country employment is likely to remain positive so long as the firm's international competiveness can be improved.     

贸易环境对我国出口影响的实证分析

以我国1995年1月至2009年10月出口贸易的月度数据为基础,实证分析了贸易环境的变化对我国出口的影响,结果显示:实际有效汇率的上升(人民币贬值)对我国一般贸易出口、加工贸易出口和制成品出口具有正面作用;汇率波动率越大,我国的出口贸易额就越少;我国出口贸易的收入弹性较高,一般贸易出口和制成品出口对收入的敏感性也较强;加入WTO、采取出口退税和人民币汇率改革3项贸易政策从长期来看,促进了我国出口贸易的增长。     

FDI对我国价格贸易条件影响的实证分析

本文利用1985～2006年的统计数据,建立了包含价格贸易条件、初级产品进口额、工业制成品出口额、贸易顺差和外资企业出口占我国出口总额的比重这5个变量的协整模型和误差修正模型,对外商直接投资对我国价格贸易条件的影响进行了实证分析,实证结果表明工业制成品出口是导致价格贸易条件恶化的重要原因,而初级产品进口对改善价格贸易条件有正效应,但正效应目前还不显著,FDI对改善我国的价格贸易条件有显著的正效应。在此基础上,本文提出了改善我国价格贸易条件的政策建议。