R&D、R&D溢出、内生增长和内生收敛

根据强调知识与技术创新、知识与技术溢出重要性的当代内生增长理论,本文建立了一个将R&D和R&D溢出与资本积累之间、R&D和R&D溢出与总产出增长之间直接关联起来的动态模型.面板数据协整检验实证分析结果表明R&D和R&D溢出与资本积累之间、R&D和R&D溢出与总产出增长之间分别存在显著的正面长期协整关联.进一步的分析表明,R&D与资本积累之间、R&D与总产出增长之间分别存在显著的长期双向格兰杰因果关系.由此观知,R&D乃长期经济增长源泉之所在.另一方面,尽管资本积累或总产出增长并不格兰杰导致R&D溢出,证据表明R&D溢出格兰杰导致资本积累和总产出增长.这种由R&D溢出到资本积累和总产出增长的单向格兰杰因果关系意味着尽管知识与技术的跨国传播并非必然发生,其实为世界经济增长的重要动力.     

The Australian Growth Experience, 1960–2000: Human Capital,R&D or Steady‐State Growth?

This article examines the sources of economic growth in Australia from 1960 to 2000 by adapting a framework developed in Jones (2002), whereby long‐run growth is driven by the global discovery of new ideas, which in turn is tied to world population growth. We find that, contrary to the conventional view as suggested by sustained growth rates and a stable capital–output ratio over the last several decades, Australia is clearly not on its steady–state balanced growth path. Australia has benefited from increases in educational attainment and research intensity: 42 per cent of Australian growth between 1960 and 2000 is attributable to the rise in educational attainment, about 20 to 40 per cent is attributable to increasing research intensity, while only 10 to 30 per cent is due to long‐run population growth in the idea‐producing countries.     

Vintage Human Capital, Demographic Trends, and Endogenous Growth

We study how economic growth is affected by demographics in an OLG model with a realistic survival law. Individuals optimally chose the dates at which they leave school to work and at which they retire. Endogenous growth arises thanks to the accumulation of generation-specific human capital. Favorable shifts in the survival probabilities induce longer schooling and later retirement but have an ambiguous effect on per-capita growth. The long-term relationship between fertility and per-capita growth is hump-shaped. Increases in longevity can be responsible for a switch from a no-growth regime to a sustained growth regime and for a positive relationship between fertility and growth to vanish. Solving numerically the equilibrium, demographic changes can have important medium-term effects even if long-term changes are very small. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: 041, I20, J10.     

Second‐Best Taxation of Incomes and Non‐Labor Inputs in a Model with Endogenous Wages

This paper considers a Mirrleesian optimal income tax model wherein labor inputs are not perfect substitutes and their wages are determined endogenously. It shows: (i) If skilled and unskilled workers are Edgeworth complements, skilled workers will necessarily face a marginal subsidy and unskilled workers a marginal tax on their incomes (these may not be the case if skilled and unskilled workers are Edgeworth substitutes); and (ii) redistributive concerns call for taxation of those inputs whose elasticity of complementarity with skilled labor is larger than with unskilled labor, and subsidization of those whose elasticity of complementarity is smaller.     

Optimal Income Taxation with Endogenous Human Capital

This paper augments the theory of optimal linear income taxation by taking into account human capital accumulation as a dimension of labor supply. The distribution of earning potentials is endogenous because agents differ in the ability to learn. Taxation affects utilization rates of human capital through labor supply responses. The costs of education that are not deductible from the income tax distort the learning decision as well. We show theoretically that the trade‐off between efficiency and equity is worsened. Quantitative analysis shows that the distortionary costs of taxation increase substantially when human capital formation is endogenous.     

有效需求不足的人力资本成因--内生人力资本增长框架的分析

通过对我国有效需求不足的成因进行分析。可以发现,人力资本不足所造成的投资需求不足是我国有效需求不足的重要原因之一,如果不能尽快提高人力资本水平,我国的经济增长有可能会跌入长期下降的通道之中。     

人本资本形成与内生经济增长

在生产力与生产关系之间关系上分析了技术进步与制度创新的匹配关系。在知识经济时代资本泛化趋势下,以技术要素、制度要素为核心黏合其他要素形成具有多元产权主体的人力资本、治理资本在经济组织内有机整合为人本资本。以制度要素为核心的治理资本边际收益递减假设、技术要素为核心的人力资本边际收益递增假设、制度创新和技术进步匹配假设的基础上导出人本资本形成与其内生经济增长关系,并分析了我国某些国有企业存在的一些弊端。     

Human Capital and Growth Cycles

This paper studies the dynamic interaction between human capital accumulation and economic growth. Capital market imperfections and an indivisibility in human capital investment prevent poor agents from accumulating skills, the acquisition of which positively affects technological progress. More productive technologies in turn require more sophisticated qualification and involve higher training costs. The equilibrium dynamics can be characterized by the joint evolution of productivity growth, the schooling costs, and the income distribution. Under our assumptions, individual incomes follow a non-linear Markov chain. This non-linearity generates endogenous fluctuations of schooling activities and the rate at which productivity improvements occur. We thank an anonymous referee for many helpful suggestions. Support from the German Research Foundation (DFG) under grant KA1519/2-2 is gratefully acknowledged.     

R&D, Imperfect Competition and Growth with Human Capital Accumulation

This paper studies the long‐run consequences of imperfect competition on growth and the sectoral distribution of skills within an R&D‐based growth model with human capital accumulation. We find that steady‐state growth is driven only by incentives to accumulate skills. In the model imperfect competition has a positive growth effect, while influencing the allocation of human capital to the different economic activities employing this factor input. Contrary to general wisdom, the share of resources invested in R&D turns out not to be monotonically increasing in the product market power and its correlation with the equilibrium output growth rate is not unambiguous.     

Capital Expansion, Endogenous Growth and Equilibrium Unemployment

A model is developed, which captures the interactions of unemployment and economic growth in general equilibrium. The economy evolves along a correct-expectations equilibrium path exhibiting endogenous job rationing, and productivity growth is driven by installation of new capital. Under the maintained hypothesis that the elasticity of substitution between capital and labour is less than unity, unemployment benefits are shown to shift up the whole path of equilibrium unemployment, leaving the economy with a higher natural rate of unemployment and lowering the long-run growth rate permanently. Investment tax credits financed by lump sum taxes on total income are capable of lowering the natural rate and raising the economy's growth rate.     

社会资本、人力资本与经济增长

笔者采用截面数据回归分析法及时间序列数据协整分析法对中国社会资本的不同维度——信任和民间组织与人力资本、经济增长的关系进行实证研究。结果表明,我国社会资本通过影响人力资本而影响经济增长,人力资本是我国社会资本作用于经济增长的机制之一。     

A Closed‐form Solution of a Two‐sector Endogenous Growth Model with Habit Formation

This paper determines a closed‐form solution of the two‐sector endogenous growth model with habit formation. Differently to the paper of Hiraguchi, but similar to other approaches as those of Gomez, Turnovsky and Monteiro, we consider that the habits are formed in an external manner and enter additively into the utility function.     

Dynamic Analysis of an Endogenous Growth Model with Investment‐specific Technological Change

This paper examines a dynamically optimal subsidy policy in a continuous‐time version of the endogenous growth model developed by Krusell (Krusell, P. (1998) “Investment‐Specific R&D and the Decline in the Relative Price of Capital”, Journal of Economic Growth, vol. 3, no. 2, pp. 131–141), in which investment‐specific technological progress occurs endogenously because of R&D performed by monopolistic firms. It is demonstrated that a combination of the time‐invariant subsidy for investment and the time‐variant subsidy for R&D enables the market equilibrium to replicate the socially optimal allocation.     

公共资本性支出、经常性支出与内生经济增长

本文基于一个含有两类不同产出能力的公共商品的内生增长模型,通过数理分析得出在市场经济条件下最优公共支出结构的依据是公共商品各自的产出弹性.进而采用面板数据模型对13个发达国家1972～2009年的公共支出实践进行了实证研究.实证结果表明,经常性(资本性)支出对经济增长有正(负)效应.该研究结论为平衡预算下的公共支出结构决策提供了参考依据.     

Exclusion via Non‐Exclusive Contracts

We establish that non‐linear vertical contracts can allow an incumbent to exclude an upstream rival in a setting that does not rely on the exclusivity of the incumbent's contracts with downstream firms or any limits on distribution channels available to the incumbent or rival. The optimal contract we describe is a three‐part quantity discounting contract that involves the payment of an allowance to a downstream distributor and a marginal wholesale price below the incumbent's marginal cost for sufficiently large quantities. The optimal contract is robust to allowing parties to renegotiate contracts in case of entry.     

Government Expenditure Financing in a Two‐Sector Cash‐In‐Advance Model of Endogenous Growth

We show that an expansion in the government size could be desirable from the viewpoint of the economy's long‐run growth, wherein factor intensity between the sectors, the mode of public spending financing, and the form of the cash‐in‐advance (CIA) constraint are crucial. We also show that when real balances are required only for consumption purchases, money financing is equivalent to consumption tax financing, but is not equivalent to income tax financing. If both consumption and gross investment are liquidity‐constrained, then the three financing methods are mutually not equivalent. The optimal financing scheme has the following features: (1) when the CIA constraint applies only to consumption purchases, any combination of the money growth rate and the consumption tax rate that satisfies the government budget constraint constitutes an optimal financing mix; (2) when the CIA constraint applies to both consumption and investment purchases, consumption tax financing only is optimal.     

我国人力资本投资对经济增长作用的实证研究

我国作为世界上的大国,拥有世界1/5的人口,但是资源的稀缺约束着我国的发展。不过,我国所具备的充裕人力劳动资源是不可忽视的优势,若能将人力资源转化为人力资本,必定会推动我国经济进一步发展。通过计量经济学分析模式,剖析了我国人力资本投资对经济增长的贡献作用,阐明了人力资本投资对经济增长的促进作用。并就如何加强我国人力资本投资与建设提出了建议。     

The Distribution of Human Capital and Economic Growth

This paper analyzes the interaction between the distributionof human capital, technological progress, and economic growth.It argues that the composition of human capital is an importantfactor in the determination of the pattern of economic development.The study demonstrates that the evolutionary pattern of the humancapital distribution, the income distribution, and economic growthare determined simultaneously by the interplay between a local home environment externality and a global technologicalexternality. In early stages of development the local home environmentexternality is the dominating factor and hence the distributionof income becomes polarized; whereas in mature stages of developmentthe global technological externality dominates and the distributionof income ultimately contracts. Polarization, in early stagesof development may be a necessary ingredient for future economicgrowth. An economy that prematurely implements a policy designedto enhance equality may be trapped at a low stage of development.An underdeveloped economy, which values equality as well as prosperity,may confront a trade-off between equality in the short-run followedby equality and stagnation in the long-run, and inequality inthe short-run followed by equality and prosperity in the longrun.     

Taxation, Human Capital Accumulation and Economic Growth

Previous studies have shown that tax rates and the growth rate of output are negatively related under the assumption that government wastes tax revenues. This paper shows that, if tax revenues are used for human capital accumulation, tax rates and the growth rate can be positively related. An increase in the human capital tax rate will increase (decrease) the growth rate when the initial tax rate is small (large). An increase in the physical capital tax rate will increase the growth rate when savings are completely interest-inelastic. The effects of income taxes and lump-sum taxes on growth are also analysed.
JEL Classification Numbers: E6, H2, O4.     

弱产权与研发人力资本投资激励问题研究

企业研发过程是一个知识创造的过程,研发形成的技术创新成果包括可缔约的显性知识和不可缔约的隐性知识,技术创新成果知识产权的保护存在困难,事前难以基于研发人力资本投资和技术创新知识产权进行缔约,使用完全契约理论研究方法则存在一定的局限性。论文运用不完全契约理论,研究了研发过程中弱知识产权保护下,研究人员的事前研发投资激励问题。研究认为,在不完全契约背景下,研究人员总是存在事前研发投资不足问题。如果存在外部风险投资公司,能够提高研究人员的投资水平;而创新技术知识溢出程度越大,越不利于研发人员作出有效率地投资。创新技术的专用性程度也影响到研发人员的事前研发投入激励,在创新技术为完全专用性技术的情况下,研发人员作出的事前研发投入水平低于在创新技术为通用性技术的情况下的投入水平,但仍能获得部分事后谈判准租。