世界主要稻米生产国和进出口国的稻米生产贸易分析

本文简要介绍了世界主要水稻生产国和稻米进出口国的稻米生产和贸易情况,并从人口、生活习惯、收入和稻米政策等方面分析了发达国家因粮食过剩而出口、发展中国家因粮食不足而扩大生产的原因。     

GATS与国际健康服务贸易综述

国际健康服务贸易的兴起给发展中国家带来了贸易获利的机会,但也会对其国民健康体系造成冲击并加剧本已存在的健康服务不平等问题。按照GATS对国际服务贸易的定义,国际健康服务贸易相应也有四种模式,不同的模式发生的动因有所不同,其对发展中国家带来的经济影响也有差异。发展中国家如何促进其健康服务贸易发展并缓解健康服务不平等问题,要考虑健康服务贸易的政策壁垒,从公共政策和贸易政策方面进行调整。     

Proliferating Regional Trade Arrangements: Why and Whither?

This paper investigates why regional trade arrangements (RTAs) are proliferating extensively and how the effects of multiple RTAs, by interacting with each other, evolve over time. Our empirical analysis, based on an extended gravity model utilising a large panel dataset of 175 countries from 1948 to 1999, shows that RTAs on average increase global trade by raising intra‐bloc trade without damaging extra‐bloc trade. The net trade effects, however, heavily depend on the types of RTA strategic evolution over time, which we categorise as ‘expansionary’ RTAs, ‘duplicate’ RTAs or ‘overlapping’ RTAs. We find that countries excluded from an RTA can benefit more from duplicating a separate RTA than from joining an existing RTA. This result explains why the number of bilateral trade blocs, rather than the membership size of existing RTAs, is currently exploding. We also find that the net trade‐creating effects of RTAs are substantially lower for countries participating in overlapping RTAs. This result suggests that it is less likely that the currently proliferating RTAs will completely merge and lead the world economy to global free trade. Our empirical results are robust to controlling for the characteristics of countries that may influence the impact of RTAs.     

从贸易角度探讨我国的贸易摩擦与对策

由于世界经济发展的不平衡及贸易利益分配的不一致,国家之间的贸易摩擦日趋激烈。特别是我国经济的快速增长,使我国与其他国家的贸易摩擦不断蔓延和升级,对我国出口的持续发展带来重大威胁,而且对宏观调控和对外政治外交关系造成严重干扰。本文从贸易角度探讨了目前我国贸易摩擦频发的原因以及应采取的对策,指出我国应实施提高国际竞争力的贸易战略。     

多边贸易体系与国际服务贸易的发展

近年来,国际服务贸易迅速发展,其增长速度超过了同期货物贸易的增长速度,引起了广泛的关注。本文阐明了多边贸易体系对国际服务贸易的推动作用,分析了WTO成立后国际服务贸易发展呈现的新特征,从而指出了我国作为发展中国家服务贸易的发展趋向。     

服务贸易与货物贸易的替代性及差异分析

通过多层面考察服务贸易与货物贸易的发展现状,利用131个国家1982—2005年间的贸易总量和差额的数据,从四个视角探析两者的替代性及其差异性。结果表明,无论是发达国家还是发展中国家,服务贸易与货物贸易在短期内都存在互补性,在长期内总量之间都存在替代性而差额之间都存在互补性,发达国家长期内的替代性强于而互补性弱于发展中国家。     

Do Trade Agreements Increase Food Trade?

In addition to multilateral trade agreements under the World Trade Organization (WTO), the world has seen a remarkable proliferation of regional trade agreements (RTAs) in the last two decades. This study investigates whether these multilateral and regional trade institutions increase food trade and bring the world into a freer flow of food. The gravity model of international trade is used for the empirical analysis. The model is developed in a large panel data setting and attempted to address some potential problems in the estimations including multilateral trade resistances, zero trade values and endogeneity. The results suggest that both the WTO and RTAs have delivered significant positive effects on trade among the participant countries, but not food. Only RTAs are found to have increased food trade among the participant countries. However, although on average the WTO is found to have negative implications on food trade, it facilitates the developing countries more than the developed countries.     

Trade Facilitation and Export Diversification

This paper shows that improved trade facilitation can help promote export diversification in developing countries. We find that 10 per cent reductions in the costs of international transport and domestic exporting costs (documentation, inland transport, port and customs charges) are associated with export diversification gains of 4 and 3 per cent, respectively, in a sample of 118 developing countries. Customs costs play a particularly important role in these results. Lower market entry costs can also promote diversification, but the effect is weaker (1 per cent). We also find evidence that trade facilitation has stronger effects on diversification in poorer countries. Our results are highly robust to estimation using alternative dependent and independent variables, different country samples, and alternative econometric techniques. We link these findings to recent advances in trade theory that emphasise firm heterogeneity, and trade growth at the extensive margin.     

Trade barriers and the relative price of tradables

In this paper I quantitatively address the role of trade barriers in explaining why prices of services relative to tradables are positively correlated with levels of development across countries. I argue that trade barriers play a crucial role in shaping the cross-country pattern of specialization across many tradable goods. I construct a multi-country, general equilibrium model of trade and derive tractable predictions that show how specialization affects relative prices. I calibrate the model to match the patterns of prices, levels of development, and bilateral trade across 103 countries. Through counterfactuals I find that removing trade barriers eliminates more than half of the gap in the relative price of services between rich and poor countries with only a minimal systematic effect on the absolute price of tradables.     

Trade Creation and Diversion Effects of Regional Trade Agreements: A Product‐level Analysis

This paper examines the impacts of regional trade agreements (RTAs) on trade flows at product level, with a particular focus on trade creation and diversion. Based on estimation of the gravity equation, dealing with the zero trade flows and endogeneity bias problems, we analyse the impacts of various types of RTAs involving 67 countries for 20 products during the 1980–2006 period. We find that RTAs among developing countries tend to cause trade diversion compared with RTAs among developed countries. Taking the higher external tariff rates of developing countries compared with developed countries into consideration, our results suggest trade diversion is likely to be caused by remaining high tariffs on imports from non‐members. In addition, we find the trade creation effect for many products in the cases of Customs Unions and plurilateral RTAs. These results imply that trade creation would be caused by various factors besides the reduction in tariff rates. Based on these results, we draw a policy implication that external tariff rate reduction is an important factor in avoiding trade diversion in the formation of RTAs, in particular for RTAs among developing countries, while a large number of members and the common external tariff appear to be important for generating the trade creation effect.     

中国产业内贸易发展探讨——从中日和中新产业内贸易比较谈起

以中日与中新的产业内贸易相互比较,探析中国未来与发达国家和与发展中国家进行产业内贸易的前景和对策。分析和计量中日和中新的产业内贸易额,中国与发展中国家之间应提高现有的水平型产业内贸易水平,贸易的广度与深度都应拓展。而中国与发达国家之间,在加强现阶段传统的垂直型产业内贸易的基础上,与新兴工业化国家进行水平产业内贸易也是不可忽略的。     

Trade and development expectations of LDCs

The developing countries are likely to use UNCTAD III to vent their disappointment at this institution’s failure in the past to find a satisfactory solution for the questions of trade and development policy which are of interest to them. The great expectations of the developing countries have in fact been left essentially unfulfilled in regard to development aid, lower trade barriers and grant of preferential tariffs for manufactured and semi-manufactured products as well as in the difficult area of raw material policy.     

How Do Differing Standards Increase Trade Costs? The Case of Pallets

The pallet is a platform used for storing, handling and transporting products. There are hundreds of different pallet sizes around the world. The case of pallets is examined to illustrate the impact of multiplicity of standards on trade costs. We select this case because pallets are used all over the world, pallet standards are not too sophisticated, and data on pallet standards and costs are to some extent available. The paper examines why there are so many different pallet standards, the associated trade costs and the reasons why countries have not harmonised pallet sizes to eliminate such costs. It then presents options for exporters to mitigate the adverse effects of standards multiplicity while complying with destination markets’ standard requirements. The range of options is limited for exporters from less developed countries because of the lack of rental and exchange pallet markets. To mitigate the costs of this multiplicity of standards, the international community's strategy should focus on developing awareness of the cost of multiplicity of standards and actively supporting standardisation.     

Trade intensity and business cycle synchronization: Are developing countries any different?

Trade intensity increases the business cycle co-movement among industrial countries. Using annual information for 147 countries for the period 1960-99 we find that the impact of trade intensity on business cycle correlation among developing countries is positive and significant, but substantially smaller than that among industrial countries. Our findings suggest that differences in the responsiveness of cycle synchronization to trade integration between industrial and developing countries are explained by differences in the patterns of specialization and bilateral trade.     

Trade openness,tax reform and tax revenue in developing countries

This article investigates empirically whether the effect of tax reform (involving the progressive replacement of trade tax revenue with domestic tax revenue) in developing countries' tax revenue performance (measured by tax revenue‐to‐GDP ratio) depends on the degree of trade openness of these countries. The analysis has used an unbalanced panel data set of 95 developing countries over the period 1981–2015 and the two‐system GMM approach. Results suggest that tax reform is positively and significantly associated with tax revenue performance in developing countries, with the magnitude of this positive effect increasing as countries experience a higher development level. Additionally, and more importantly, countries that further open up their economies to international trade enjoy a higher positive effect of tax reform on tax revenue than countries that experience a lower degree of trade openness. Therefore, these findings should help dissipate the concerns of policymakers in developing countries that greater openness to international trade would further erode their tax revenue, including by lowering their international trade tax revenue. In fact, the implementation of an appropriate tax reform in the context of greater trade openness would generate higher tax revenue, while concurrently allowing countries to reap the well‐known benefits of international trade.     

后次贷危机时期官方支持的贸易融资之国际协调与监管

贸易融资作为解决付款信用的重要手段,在2008年美国次贷危机引发的金融危机之背景下,出现巨额缺口,严重威胁发达国家和发展中家的经济复苏进程,而私人部门和国际贸易合同主体提供的贸易融资仅是杯水车薪。国际社会针对发展中国家提供的贸易融资的支持之多边和区域努力,以及发达国家和地区在已有的融资安排基础上的调整,为贸易融资的国际协调提供了可能性。世界贸易组织的有关规定则为这种国际协调提供了监管机制。中国作为世贸组织成员,在金融危机背景下,应积极响应贸易融资的国际协调与监管,以促进本国国际贸易的健康发展。     

知识性贸易壁垒对我国出口贸易的影响及对策研究

在知识经济时代 ,知识已成为重要的生产要素。近年来 ,发达国家正在采用控制知识产权及其交易条件 ,在国际贸易中对发展中国家进行歧视性做法 ,构建知识性贸易壁垒。知识壁垒的新兴和发展对我国的出口贸易是有极大危害的 ,我国必须高度重视 ,积极应对。     

技术性贸易壁垒的效应及我国企业的对策研究

发达国家凭借经济和技术优势,设立起来的技术性贸易壁垒已经威胁到发展中国家的传统优势产业的贸易。通过对技术性贸易壁垒的效应分析,了解技术性贸易壁垒在抑制进口方面的作用及它在发达国家和发展中国家的非平等性,进而提出我国作为发展中国家应如何应对技术性贸易壁垒的一些建议     

Contract Enforcement and Trade

The main objective of this paper is to investigate the effect of contract enforcement on trade in a large sample of developing economies. The effects of three separate measures capturing contract enforcement (the time required to enforce a contract; the costs to enforce a contract; and the number of procedures required to enforce a contract) on trade were tested using the panel corrected standard errors method of estimation. The results show that the three measures of contract enforcement are negatively and statistically significantly correlated with trade. The findings lead to the conclusion that the ease of contract enforcement is crucial in order to facilitate the speed of trade in the developing group of countries.     

Agricultural Trade Reform and the Doha Development Agenda

This paper examines the extent to which various regions, and the world as a whole, could gain from multilateral trade reform over the next decade. The World Bank's Linkage model of the global economy is employed to examine the impact first of current trade barriers and agricultural subsidies, and then of possible outcomes from the WTO's Doha Round. The results suggest moving to free global merchandise trade would boost real incomes in sub‐Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia (and in Cairns Group countries) proportionately more than in other developing countries or high‐income countries. Real returns to farmland and unskilled labour, and real net farm incomes, would rise substantially in those developing‐country regions, thereby helping to reduce poverty. A Doha partial liberalisation could take the world some way towards those desirable outcomes, but more so the more agricultural subsidies are disciplined and applied tariffs are cut, and the more not just high‐income but also developing countries choose to engage in the process of reform.