Trade Liberalisation,Market Structure and the Incentive to Merge

In this article, we consider whether a movement towards freer international trade generates incentives for firms to merge and if so what forms of merger are most profitable. In a linear Cournot framework, we show that a reduction in trade costs may, but will not necessarily, encourage mergers. Both market structure and the level to which trade costs fall are shown to play a decisive role. Domestic mergers will be encouraged only if the product market is not highly concentrated and trade costs fall below a threshold level. International mergers can be encouraged in any market structure, and are generally more profitable than domestic mergers.     

Trade and Market Liberalisation in Eastern Europe

SUMMARY

The question of why multinational companies (MNCs) choose to locate in one region rather than another has been an important topic in IB research for many years, but has recently received even more attention. This paper presents the results of an econometric investigation of the locational determinants of Italian firms in Central and Eastern Europe. Italian firms have been very active investors in the CEE countries. Our results broadly confirm the findings of previous studies, but we also find that both trade liberalisation and market liberalisation are important influences upon the location decision. If the CEE governments wish to attract further (Italian) foreign investment, then further liberalisation of their domestic economies should be a policy priority.     

Thai Trade Policy: From Non‐discriminatory Liberalisation to FTAs

FTAs have dominated Thai trade policy recently, reflecting the general trend in east Asia. But they also reflect domestic political changes, especially the decision‐making style of the Thaksin government. Thai FTAs have become very politicised. In particular, the US‐Thai FTA negotiations have run into a storm of domestic protest. The first section of the paper surveys the national trade‐policy framework. It highlights the slowdown of unilateral trade and FDI liberalisation after the Asian crisis, though a descent back into protectionism was successfully resisted. Thailand punches well below its weight in the WTO, and not very forcefully in ASEAN, because political attention and negotiating resources have switched to FTAs. The second section identifies the main actors in Thai trade policy, and briefly describes the trade‐policy decision‐making process as well as recent developments during the Thaksin administration. The following central section deals with Thailand's FTAs. These have been driven by vague foreign‐policy goals, while credible economic strategy has been lacking. The residual commercial logic is narrowly mercantilist and ‘trade‐light’, seeking an exchange of concessions in a narrow range of sectors rather than comprehensive, trade‐creating FTAs. Weak and partial FTAs are the result. The sole exception has been the Thailand‐USA FTA negotiations, as the USA wants a strong, deep‐integration FTA. However, negotiations were suspended in 2006 in the wake of the Thai political crisis. Overall, Thai trade policy post‐Asian crisis is highly unbalanced. It stands on a shaky FTA leg, while the other WTO leg has gone to sleep and the ASEAN arm is limp. Above all, core unilateral liberalisation and related regulatory reform are lacking.     

论WTO新一轮多边贸易谈判中的“贸易便利”

“贸易便利”是1996年12月新加坡召开 WTO 第一届部长级会议上提出的新议题之一。为了掌握这一问题的动态,本文就该议题所涉及的基本框架作初步的探讨,以此希望引起国内政府部门、行业协会、企业和研究人员的关注。     

多哈部长级会议与新的多边贸易谈判

<正> 多哈部长级会议已经艰难地结束了,两项主要任务(接纳中国入世与准备启动新的多边贸易谈判)也已基本顺利完成。尤其是接纳中国入世的这一任务完成得十分漂亮。回顾多哈会议的前前后后,研究多哈会议的实际内容,展望准备启动新的多边贸易谈判的前景,是各国政府、WTO 官员和专家、学者面临的共同课题。     

Trade Liberalisation: The Effects of Free Trade Agreements on the Competitiveness of the Dairy Sector

In recent years, preferential trade agreements (PTAs), free trade agreements (FTAs) in particular, have proliferated while WTO negotiations have stagnated. This paper contributes to the literature on trade liberalisation and the agricultural sector by analysing the effects of FTAs on the competitiveness of the dairy sector across 76 countries and over a 20‐year period from 1990 to 2009. With a longitudinal econometric model, the results demonstrate that when a country has a revealed comparative advantage in the dairy sector, FTAs positively influence several indicators of competitiveness in the dairy sector, such as production, market share and trade balance. The results also indicate that multilateral FTAs are more beneficial than bilateral FTAs. There is strong empirical evidence that FTAs are more beneficial to developed countries than to developing countries. There is no statistical evidence to support the hypothesis about a relationship between FTAs and farm‐gate price.     

Firm R&D,Processing Trade and Input Trade Liberalisation: Evidence from Chinese Firms

This paper examines the impact of input trade liberalisation on firm R&D activity by taking China's accession to the WTO as a quasi‐natural experiment. Different from ordinary imports, processing imports in China enjoy zero tariffs and are not affected by input trade liberalisation due to the WTO accession. The paper uses disaggregated firm‐level production data and transaction‐level trade data to perform difference‐in‐difference analysis by taking processing import firms as a control group. An intensive empirical search shows that after China's accession to the WTO, input trade liberalisation fostered firm R&D significantly. The findings are robust to different measures and various empirical specifications.     

Impacts of Trade Liberalisation Commitments on the Vietnamese Economy: A CGE Approach

This article quantifies the economic effects of tariff reduction following Vietnam's WTO accession. It differs from previous studies in several aspects. First, the model incorporates non‐standard features of the Vietnamese economy (e.g. changes in the domestic tax system). Second, the model divides Vietnamese households into 10 groups, allowing for the assessment of household welfare and income distribution. Third, the model has been run employing the most up‐to‐date database available. The major findings are summarised as follows. First, Vietnam as a whole would benefit from trade liberalisation. Second, the overall gain would be accompanied by a redistribution of income and a moderate increase in inequality between the rich and the poor. Third, concerning sectoral output, export‐oriented sectors, sectors with large shares of input in total imports, and those with increased domestic demands are likely to expand, whereas, in contrast, domestic‐oriented sectors are likely to contract. Measures to increase labour mobility, target disadvantaged groups and areas, and further liberalise service sectors are recommended as the recipe for effective utilisation of integration, as well as a more equitable pattern of growth.     

Aid and Trade Sustainability under Liberalisation in Least Developed Countries

This study investigates the effect of trade liberalisation on export growth, import growth, the trade balance and the current account of the balance of payments in 17 Least Developed Countries (LDCs) over the period 1970 to 2001. The paper also assesses the marginal relation between capital flows (e.g. aid flows) and import growth, and the trade balance and the current account of the balance of payments. The higher import growth contrasts with the more modest export growth following trade liberalisation and that has fundamental policy implications, especially for the balance of trade and the balance of payments. However, the financing and sustainability of the trade deficit in the reforming countries will depend not only on the outcome of trade liberalisation, but also on other macroeconomic policies, developments in the real exchange rate and the inflows of foreign capital.     

Regional Trade Agreements versus Global Trade Liberalisation: Implications for a Small Island Developing State

This study undertakes an empirical investigation of the macroeconomic and sectoral impacts of two forms of regional trade agreements vis‐à‐vis global trade liberalisation on a small island country, using Fiji as a case study. In order to capture the feedback effects of such a complex set of policies, we employ a dynamic computable general equilibrium model of the Fijian economy to investigate (i) the impact of the Pacific Island Countries Trade Agreement (PICTA), (ii) the impact of PICTA, the Pacific Agreement for Closer Economic Relations (PACER), and the Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs), (iii) the impact of full tariff liberalisation (i.e. tariff removal only), and (iv) the impact of full trade liberalisation, with removal of both tariff and non‐tariff barriers. While PICTA consistently provides the least benefits across a range of macroeconomic indicators including real output, welfare, trade volumes and employment, full trade liberalisation involving the removal of tariff and non‐tariff barriers provides the greatest benefits compared to the other scenarios in terms of real output. However, the latter scenario is outperformed by PICTA, PACER, the EPAs and full tariff liberalisation in terms of welfare effects, trade volumes and employment. The policy implications hold important lessons for developing countries considering trade liberalisation.     

多哈回合谈判下的“贸易便利化”议题及我国对策

本文介绍了多哈回合谈判下的“贸易便利化”议题的概念及其意义,分析了目前各方在该议题上的态度、谈判前景,并从发展中国家的角度审视了该议题,从而提出我国对待该议题的态度和相关建议。     

On the European Responsibility in the Agricultural Multilateral Trade Negotiations: Modelling the Impacts of the Common Agricultural Policy

The present round of multilateral trade negotiations is still deadlocked over agricultural trade. The European Union (EU) is urged by its trading partners to open its agricultural markets. Economic evaluations of trade liberalisation scenarios unanimously conclude that a substantial opening of agricultural markets is required for a successful (welfare‐improving) Doha Round. In this paper, we perform new evaluations to identify precisely the contributions of the European farm policy and to examine the robustness of these evaluations in the representation of this complex policy. Using the same specifications as in major previous studies, our first simulations show that the EU has a major responsibility in delivering significant gains to the developing countries. On the other hand, when we conduct the same experiments with a more relevant calibration and modelling of the European farm policy instruments, the gains that these developing countries may reap from the EU liberalisation are considerably reduced. Accordingly the current charge against the EU is simply inopportune.