Productivity Premia for German Manufacturing Firms Exporting to the Euro‐Area and Beyond: First Evidence from Robust Fixed Effects Estimations

This paper reports estimates of the productivity premium of German firms exporting to the Euro‐zone and beyond, controlling for unobserved time‐invariant firm‐specific effects. Furthermore, it tests for self‐selection of more productive firms into exporting beyond the Euro‐zone. The main contribution of the paper is to correct a serious flaw in hitherto published studies that ignore the potentially disastrous consequences of extreme observations, or outliers. The paper shows that estimates of the exporter productivity premium by destination are driven by a small share of outliers that comprises some five per cent of all firms. These outliers are identified by a recently developed highly robust estimator for models with fixed effects. Using a ‘clean’ sample without these outliers, the estimated productivity premium of firms that export to the Euro‐zone only is no longer statistically different from zero at a conventional error level, and the estimated premium of firms exporting beyond the Euro‐zone, too, over firms that serve the German market only is tiny. Furthermore, an ex‐ante differential that is statistically significant and large only shows up for enterprises that exported to the Euro‐zone already and start to export to countries outside the Euro‐zone. These conclusions differ considerably from those based on non‐robust standard regression analyses.     

Offshoring and Outsourcing Potentials: Evidence from German Micro‐Level Data

This paper provides two indicators that measure: (i) offshoring potentials (cross‐country geographical relocation) and (ii) outsourcing potentials (organisational relocation) separately at the level of jobs, occupations, tasks and industries. We use four waves of the BIBB/BAuA Labour Force Survey in Germany and apply principal component analysis based on a large set of potential determinants of offshoring and outsourcing derived from the literature. Our results show significant variation across these levels in the determinants of both dimensions. We provide a comprehensive empirical classification of the determinants of how easily jobs can be offshored and outsourced. This can serve as a basis for further research to investigate the economic effects of job offshoreability.     

The Deal Structuring Stage of the Venture Capitalist Decision‐Making Process: Exploring Confidence and Control*

This exploratory study examines the deal structuring stage of the venture capitalist decision‐making process. Here, the primary issues of concern are investor confidence and potential control of a venture in relation to the level of financing the investor provides and the structure with which the funding is delivered. Confidence comes in support of the entrepreneur, the venture itself, or a combination of the two, prior to capital transfer, but after the initial “invest or not invest” decision has already occurred. Findings support a multicriteria perspective of the pre‐investment decision‐making process and a distinct difference between entrepreneur confidence and venture confidence in the deal structuring stage.     

International Trade and Economic Growth Nexus in Australia: A Robust Evidence from Time‐Series Estimators

This study examines the effects of international trade on output and tests the null of Granger non‐causality between trade and economic growth in Australia. The single‐equation IV‐GMM, DOLS, FMOLS and NLLS and the system‐based ML estimates consistently support the positive and significant long‐run effects of exports and investment on output. The effects of imports are consistently negative across all the estimates. The OLSEG, RLS and ARDL‐ECM estimates provide a mixed and weak and that overparameterised level‐VAR estimates no support for the effects of trade on output. The estimates of the model with structural breaks provide a dominant support for the cointegrating relationship among variables. In conclusion, the evidence supporting the positive and significant long‐run effects overwhelms the evidence providing a mixed, weak or no support for the effects of trade on output. The results of the study can be inductively generalised to mimic the findings of the literature at large and to suggest that a part of the inconclusiveness over the gains of trade could analogously be ascribed to the use of different methodologies and test statistics across studies. The results support the acceleration of exports and investment to foster the higher levels of output and economic growth.     

External and internal influences on R&D alliance formation: Evidence from German SMEs

Relying on relational capital theory and transaction cost economics (TCE), this study identifies factors that impede or promote alliance formation in small to medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Environmental uncertainty and knowledge intensity impede firms' R&D alliance formation; the focal firm's overall trust in partners enhances alliance formation. Trust interacts positively with environmental uncertainty and knowledge intensity to affect alliance formation in SMEs. The findings reflect data from a longitudinal sample of 854 German SMEs, captured over eight years from 1999 to 2007.     

Accounting for Stylised Facts about Recent Anti‐dumping: Retaliation and Innovation

Recent work has found certain stylised facts about anti‐dumping (AD) actions. (i) AD actions are mostly between industrial and developing countries; (ii) developing countries use AD to retaliate against industrial countries; and (iii) AD is concentrated in R&D‐intensive industries. This study develops an analytical framework that can account for these empirical findings. The model suggests that market expansions and/or improvement in R&D capability in the South are essential in avoiding AD wars with the North. Interestingly, stricter enforcement of intellectual property rights in the South has little effect on stopping AD wars between the North and the South.     

Exporters and Importers of Services: Firm‐Level Evidence on Italy

This work contributes to the growing literature on international trade in services at firm level. Our data set provides information on exports and imports of services (excluding transportation and travel) in 2008–09 for almost 3,000 Italian industrial and services firms, divided by partner country and type of service. We report a set of stylised facts on services trade and analyse the choice between export and foreign direct investment in services at the firm level. We find that the export and import of services are highly concentrated in just a few firms. Firm‐level variation in trade is positively correlated with firm size and productivity. Country‐level variation is to a large extent explained by the standard gravity variables: distance strongly reduces trade in services in spite of their intangibility. Smaller and less productive firms choose to export rather than sell through foreign affiliates, although there is some heterogeneity among service types.     

The Effects of Offshoring on Post‐displacement Wages: Evidence from the United States

This paper studies the effects of offshoring on post‐displacement wages using a large and nationally representative sample of US workers displaced from a manufacturing industry during the 1990s. The empirical results based on Mincerian regressions of individual re‐employment earnings on industry‐level offshoring proxies, show that the effects of offshoring on post‐displacement wages are negative, although not economically large. The preferred specifications suggest, in fact, that a one percentage point increase in offshoring in the pre‐displacement industry reduces earnings on the new job by approximately 0.3–0.6 per cent. These figures imply that the cumulative rise in offshoring over the sample period may have led to a drop of between US$110 and US$330 in the yearly re‐employment wages of US displaced workers. While the magnitude of the effect is largely independent of individual characteristics such as gender, age, occupation and educational level, it does depend on the duration of non‐employment and on workers’ industrial reallocation after displacement. In particular, the effects are relatively stronger for individuals who stay longer before finding a new job, as well as for those who leave the pre‐displacement industry after the job loss.     

Political risks as firm‐specific (dis)advantages: Evidence on transnational oil firms in Nigeria

The international business literature has recognized that political risk can be firm‐specific, but it has so far focused almost exclusively on the national business environment rather than the firm itself. Scholars have still largely confined firms to the role of relatively passive bystanders who, at best, can forecast political risks with some precision or guard against risk (e.g., through insurance). The basic premise of this article, however, is that transnational corporations (TNCs) can be active actors capable of acquiring and upgrading firm‐specific resources and capabilities for coping with or even benefiting from political risk. The research is based on the case of the Nigerian oil industry. The research provides evidence to suggest that the same political events can have varying effects on different transnational firms depending on their strategic resources and capabilities, and can benefit specific firms under certain circumstances. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

The Long‐run Relationship Between Trade and Population Health: Evidence from Five Decades

In recent years, the increase in international trade has sparked a debate about the impact of international trade on population health. To date, however, there has been very little econometric research on the relationship between these two variables. This paper examines the long‐run relationship between trade openness and population health for a sample of 74 countries over five decades, from 1960 to 2010. Using panel time‐series techniques, it is shown that international trade in general has a robust positive long‐run effect on health, as measured by life expectancy and infant mortality. This effect tends to be greater in countries with lower development levels, higher taxes on income, profits, and capital gains, and less restrictive business and labour market regulations.     

Trade Diversion as Firm Adjustment to Trade Policy: Evidence from EU Anti‐dumping Duties on Vietnamese Footwear

This paper evaluates the impact of the 2006 European Union anti‐dumping (AD) action on Vietnamese footwear in three markets: imports to the EU, footwear producers in Vietnam, and the trade diversionary adjustment of Vietnamese firms in the US market. We find that the AD action reduced Vietnamese imports to the EU by as much as 65 per cent. Given that the EU makes up almost two‐thirds of Vietnam's footwear exports and footwear is among the top four export industries for Vietnam, this reduction is economically significant. Consistent with predictions of our model, we find evidence of trade diversion by Vietnamese producers from the EU to the US market. Our difference‐in‐difference estimates of the AD actions on the value of Vietnamese footwear imports to the United States ranged from 69 to 71 per cent over the period 2004–07 and 69 to 72 per cent in terms of quantity. These results highlight the spillover effects of trade policy in third markets when firms adjust to trade barriers. Our results are robust to triple‐difference specifications where we adjust for trend differences and a series of placebo specifications.     

中国对外贸易的“优进优出”战略:基于产品质量与增加值率视角的研究

本文利用中国工业企业数据和海关数据的匹配数据库,基于Tobit、IVTobit等多种计量方案实证研究了进口产品质量提升对出口产品质量和出口国内增加值率的影响。研究发现:(1)总体来看,一般贸易进口产品质量显著提升了对应产品的出口质量,且在高、低研发强度企业及外资企业和民营企业均得到一致结果;高研发强度企业加工贸易进口产品质量有利于提升其出口产品质量,低研发强度企业则呈现负向影响。(2)无论是基于OECD成员国、"一带一路"倡议抑或反倾销调查分组还是针对高收入国家,一般贸易下进口产品质量均显著提升了同类产品的出口质量,但低收入国家则不显著。对加工贸易而言,来自非OECD国家和"一带一路"沿线国家进口产品质量会降低出口产品质量。(3)从影响机制看,不管是一般贸易还是加工贸易,进口产品质量梯度均对进口产品质量影响出口产品质量的促进作用形成正向调节效应;一般贸易下进口产品质量通过创新中介效应显著提升了出口产品质量;但加工贸易下该效应则不确定。(4)进一步拓展研究发现,一般贸易下进口产品质量显著提高了出口国内增加值率,但加工贸易却降低了国内出口增加值率。     

Complex Samples and Regression‐Based Inference: Considerations for Consumer Researchers

This article demonstrates that researchers who treat data collected via complex sampling procedures as if they were collected via simple random sample (SRS) may draw improper inferences when estimating regression models. Using complex sample data from the 2004 panel of the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) two models—one ordinary least squares (OLS) regression and one logistic regression—were estimated using three methods: SRS with and without population weights, Taylor series linearization, and Fay's Balanced Repeated Replication (BRR). The results of the alternative models demonstrate that depending on the variables of interest, authors who fail to incorporate sample design information or fail to consider the effects of weighting may draw improper inferences from their regression models. Reasons why researchers continue to neglect complex sample‐based variance are proposed and discussed, and example SAS and Stata code is offered to encourage adoption by the consumer research community.     

On the Behavior and Determinants of Risk‐Based Capital Ratios: Revisiting the Evidence from UK Banking Institutions*

Using bank‐level panel data from the United Kingdom, this paper investigates the factors that influence banks' choice of risk‐based capital ratios. The study focuses on evaluating the role of regulatory capital requirements. Findings indicate that such requirements, even when not binding, affect banks' capital management practices and suggest that banks maintain targeted buffers above regulatory thresholds. That behavior differs across several dimensions, including bank size, nearness to regulatory minimum, reliance on core (equity) capital and exposure to market discipline. Capital ratios also vary over the economic cycle. These findings have implications for the ongoing review of international capital standards.     

Short‐term Consequences of Trade Reform for Industry Employment and Wages: Survey of Evidence from Colombia

Recent research has focused on the short‐ to medium‐term implications of trade reforms for the labour market outcomes and poverty in poor economies. This article summarises the evidence on the short‐term consequences of the Colombian trade reform initiated in 1985 for industry employment and industry wages. Although the reform reduced manufacturing tariffs on average by 40 percentage points from 1984 to 1994, tariff declines were not significantly associated with labour reallocation across sectors. The reform, however, was associated with bigger declines in relative industry wages in sectors that experienced bigger tariff cuts. This evidence is in line with the predictions of short‐ to medium‐run models of trade in which labour is not mobile across sectors. It is also consistent with the predictions of models where imperfectly competitive industries share rents with workers and trade reduces the firms’ profit margins and thus workers’ rents.     

The impact of migration on the cross‐border M&A: Some evidence for Japan

Facing the rapidly ageing society and shrinking of markets at home, Japanese firms are expanding outbound mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity at a record pace. This study examines the determinants of Japanese cross‐border M&A activity focusing on the role of migrant networks in overcoming the informational barriers to such activity. Migrants include immigrants residing in Japan as well as Japanese citizens residing abroad. Our results suggest that the presence of immigrants and of Japanese citizens residing abroad both increase the probability of acquiring assets in a potential target country. Moreover, both communities exert positive effects on the number and value of outbound M&A deals.     

立足内需:大国经济发展的必然选择

全球金融危机引发的经济衰退导致国外市场对中国产品的需求萎缩,迫使我们,必须改变传统的以投资和出口拉动经济的增长方式,把经济增长的重点转向内需.中国作为一个经济大国,其发展模式应遵循"大国模式",通过内需来驱动经济增长.扩大内需的关键是刺激居民的消费需求.通过收入分配制度的改革,提高劳动在分配中的比例,提升老百姓的消费能力;建立社会保障体系,增强居民的消费信心.