Supply Chains,Global Financial Shocks and Firm Behaviour towards Liquidity Needs

Driven by the increasingly important role of supply chains in global production, this paper studies empirical association between global credit‐market shocks and firm behaviour towards liquidity needs across countries and industries. Focusing on the adjustment of working‐capital financing, we find two pieces of supporting evidence from international firm‐level panel data covering the period 2002:I–2012:IV. First, for industries where specific investment in the input supplier–customer relationship is large, firms are more exposed to credit‐market shocks. We find that measures of global credit‐market shocks are negatively associated with trade receivables, trade payables and inventories, conditional on the level of contract intensity in the industries where firms operate. Second, firms in emerging markets are more vulnerable to credit‐market shocks than are firms in developed countries. We are also able to verify the economic significance of sales growth, operating cash flows, cash stock and firm size in the overall adjustment. Our findings highlight the importance of balance‐sheet contagion along supply chains during the 2007–09 global financial crisis.     

Barriers to Exporting: What are They and Who do They Matter to?

The international trade literatures on gravity modelling and firm‐level export behaviour have established that nontariff barriers are important impediments to international trade flows. In this paper, we provide fresh evidence on the actual barriers to exports firms face and how they vary with firm‐level characteristics. Our results indicate that the higher the export experience of firms the lower are the trade costs they face. These barriers are not related to other firm‐level characteristics, such as productivity and size, found by the literature to be associated with export market entry. Overall, these results suggest the existence of a process of learning to export whereby firms learn how to cope with export barriers through direct experience in export markets.     

Non‐Tariff Measures,Specific Trade Concerns and Tariff Reduction

This paper studies the determinants of the recent proliferation of Specific Trade Concerns raised at the WTO on non‐tariff trade measures (NTMs), with a focus on sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) and technical barriers to trade (TBTs). Even though NTMs are imposed de jure to protect consumers from unhealthy products, they increase trade costs de facto. So, when tariff protection lowers, NTMs become effective barriers to trade and the exporting countries can complain at the dedicated committee at the WTO (STCs). Therefore, we study whether STCs are raised by exporting countries as a consequence of tariff reductions in importing countries, that is when non‐tariff measures become barriers to trade. Using a recent database on STCs over the period 1996–2010, we find empirical evidence that SPS and TBT concerns are raised by exporting country as a consequence of importer's tariff cut.     

Food Safety Issues,Trade and WTO Rules: A Developing Country Perspective

The SPS Agreement and the related WTO dispute settlement mechanism are an important first step in strengthening the global trade architecture, bringing in greater transparency and orderly conditions to world food trade. However, implementation of the new trade rules has turned out to be a more complex task than the traditional market access issues handled by the WTO. Several factors, including inadequate financial and technical resources, have constrained devel‐oping countries from becoming effective participants in the implementation process, and there is widespread suspicion that SPS regulations are being used as hidden protectionist devices by developed countries. However, despite all the problems, some developing countries have been quite successful in penetrating developed country food markets; they have done so by accepting the consumer preferences and standards in quality‐sensitive high‐income markets and implementing domestic supply‐side measures. While making full use of available international assistance initiatives, developing countries should view the task of complying with SPS standards not just as a barrier but also as an opportunity to upgrade quality standards and market sophistication in the food export sector.     

Trading with Conditions: The Effect of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures on the Agricultural Exports from Low‐income Countries

Market access for agricultural products is increasingly determined by capability to comply with a wide array of regulatory measures. From a trade perspective, one of the most important aspects of such regulatory measures is their potential distortionary effect, as their cost of compliance is often asymmetrical across countries. This paper investigates the effect of the European Union's sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) measures on the exports from low income countries. This study finds that SPS measures result in relatively higher burden for low income countries but that membership in deep trade agreements seems to reduce the difficulties related to compliance with SPS measures. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that while many middle and high income countries have the internal capacity to comply with SPS measures, most low income countries do not.     

An Assessment of Environmentally‐ related Non‐tariff Measures

International trade can affect the environment in different ways. This may justify the introduction of border measures by the importing countries. In addition to various dispositions in the GATT, GATS, TRIPs agreements, as well as in the Agreement on Agriculture, this issue is regulated by the agreements on Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT) and on the application of Sanitary and Phyto‐sanitary standards (SPS). Despite these rules, abuse of environmental arguments for protectionist reasons remains an open issue. In order to disentangle protectionism from dispositions justified on the grounds of true environmental concerns, we systematically review notifications of SPS and TBTs by importing countries at the tariff line level. Trade is considered as being potentially affected when an environmental SPS/TBT is notified on grounds of environmental concerns. Affected trade is defined as imports by countries notifying such barriers. Protectionist use of environmental barriers is likely when only a limited number of countries impose an environmental obstacle on the imports of a given product. Considering data for 2001, we find that 88 per cent of the value of world trade is in products potentially affected by such measures, while 39 per cent of the value of world imports is potentially subject to a protectionist use of such measures. Agriculture, the automobile industry, the pharmaceutical industry and many other sectors are concerned.     

Host market characteristics,FDI, and the FDI – trade relationship

This paper empirically examines how a host nation's market characteristics, particularly its market maturity and role as an export platform, affect the amount of inward FDI it receives and its FDI?–?bilateral trade relationship with the FDI source. For the period 1989?–?1999, using Japanese outward FDI into 85 geographically and developmentally diverse countries, we find a positive and significant relationship between FDI inflows and the host's market maturity levels. However, the FDI?–?trade interaction between the host and the FDI source appears to vary inversely with the host country's market maturity level. In addition, after controlling for the host's market maturity, we find that the nature of the host's ‘export platform’ status also significantly impacts both inward FDI flows and the FDI?–?trade relationship.     

Market presence, contestability, and the terms-of-trade effects of regional integration

This paper examines the impact of market presence and contestability on the price behavior of US exporters in Brazil’s market when MERCOSUR and MFN trade liberalization take place. Using detailed panel data on trade and tariff rates, we find that both the preferred supplier’s market presence and threat of entry lower (raise) the US price reaction to MFN (preferential) trade liberalization, with similar quantitative effects. Thus, presence in, or threat of entry into, partners’ markets implies lower optimal MFN tariffs, and regional agreements can have pro-competitive effects in contestable markets. We also examine the ‘symmetry’ hypothesis between the effect of tariffs and exchange rates.     

卫生和植物检疫措施影响农产品贸易的理论模型--以猪肉为例

本文从卫生和植物检疫(SPS)措施导致的遵从成本出发,建立了经济学局部均衡分析模型,研究SPS措施对中国猪肉贸易的影响效应。分析表明:SPS措施对猪肉贸易的影响在宏观上表现为贸易禁止、贸易限制和贸易扭曲。微观上的影响在短期和长期是不同的。文章还分析了在一对一歧视、多对一歧视和非歧视情况下遵从成本的大小。研究发现,当所有进口国对所有出口国无歧视的采用同一SPS措施的情况下,遵从成本被各国分摊,对于单个出口国来说,这时遵从成本最低。因此,对于贸易商来说,最重要的是追求贸易中的公平待遇。     

The indirect effects of foreign direct investment on trade: A network perspective

The relationship between international trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) is one of the main features of globalisation. In this paper, we investigate the effects of FDI on trade from a network perspective, since FDI takes not only direct but also indirect channels from origin to destination countries because of firms’ incentive to reduce tax burden, to minimise coordination costs and to break barriers to market entry. We use a unique data set of international corporate control as a measure of stock FDI to construct a corporate control network (CCN), where the nodes are the countries and the edges are the corporate control relationships. Network measures, as the shortest path length and the communicability, are then computed on the CCN to capture the indirect channel of FDI. Empirically, we find that corporate control has a positive effect on trade both directly and indirectly. The result is robust with different specifications and estimation strategies. Hence, our paper provides strong empirical evidence of the indirect effects of FDI on trade. Moreover, we identify a number of interplaying factors such as regional trade agreements and the region of Asia. We also find that the indirect effects are more pronounced for the manufacturing sector than for primary sectors such as oil extraction and agriculture.     

Openness and optimal monetary policy

We show that the composition of international trade has important implications for the optimal volatility of the exchange rate, above and beyond the size of trade flows. Using an analytically tractable small open economy model, we characterize the impact of the trade composition on the policy trade-off and on the role played by the exchange rate in correcting for price misalignments. Contrary to models where openness can be summarized by the degree of home bias, we find that openness can be a poor proxy of the welfare impact of alternative monetary policies. Using input–output data for 25 countries we document substantial differences in the import and non-tradable content of final demand components, and in the role played by imported inputs in domestic production. The estimates are used in a richer small-open-economy DSGE model to quantify the loss from an exchange rate peg relative to the Ramsey policy conditional on the composition of imports. We find that the main determinant of the losses is the share of non-traded goods in final demand.     

Trade liberalization and informality nexus: Evidence from Pakistan

This study investigates the impact of trade openness on informal sector employment during the drastic 1988s trade reforms of Pakistan. It is generally perceived that increased external competition in less developed countries results in as an expansion in informal sector, which has less compliance with labor market regulations. Using micro-level data of Pakistan, we study the adjustments in the employment of informal sector due to trade openness. We find that informality and trade openness are associated. In Pakistan, trade reforms have given rise to employment in the informal sector. Our findings are robust to different trade-related measures. A substantial flexibility in labor market is required to benefit from the gains of liberalization.     

Time,uncertainty and trade flows

This paper quantifies the impact of international transport time on bilateral trade flows in goods using previously unexploited information drawn from a large data set on international parcel delivery times. In line with previous work, we find that an extra day spent in international transit reduces bilateral trade by just under 1% at the sample median. In addition, and for the first time in the literature, we examine the impact of time-related uncertainty, which requires traders to hold costly inventories or build costly redundancies into supply chains. We find that a one day increase in international transport time uncertainty reduces bilateral trade flows by just over 1%. Splitting the sample into developing and developed countries shows that international transit time matters primarily for south–south trade, whereas uncertainty is relatively more important for north–north trade. Using new data on trade in intermediate versus final goods, we also find some evidence that time and uncertainty both matter more for movements of intermediates of the type that takes place within global value chains.     

SPS对我国禽肉出口影响的经济学分析

SPS(Sanitary and Phyto-sanitary Agreement)(卫生与动植物检疫)措施是与风险密切相关的技术性贸易措施,SPS协议是用来规范成员国SPS措施的世贸组织协议,是成员国必须遵守的章程。目前SPS措施壁垒已成为中国禽肉出口的主要障碍。本文运用经济学局部均衡分析框架分析了SPS措施对我国禽肉出口的影响效应。研究认为,SPS措施对禽肉出口的短期影响为数量限制,而长期影响则表现为贸易限制(禁止)和贸易转移效应,最后用实证案例对SPS措施产生的贸易效应进行了验证。针对SPS措施的影响,认为加强我国防疫体系建设,建设无规定疫病区,严格控制药物使用和残留监控,采用HACCP认证等提高我国SPS水平,以较高的遵从成本换取更高的遵从收益。     

世贸组织成立以来全球贸易救济措施的运用情况与启示

世贸组织并不是完全意义上的“自由贸易”的机构,它允许其成员在特定情况下征收较高关税或采取其它形式的保护措施,使成员进行开放、公平、无扭曲的竞争。由此可确定“入世”后的我国,应是市场开放和维护市场秩序并行不悖。本文在介绍和总结世贸组织成立以来全球贸易救济措施运用情况的基础上,指出我国在运用贸易救济措施保护国内产业时,应优先选择反倾销措施。     

Linking knowledge, entry timing and internationalization strategy

This paper contributes to the current internationalization theory by linking the characteristics of the firm's resource-base, its market-entry timing orientation and international growth orientation so as to shed more light on internationalization strategies. By employing multi-industry data, we find that the nature of the firm's knowledge, its entry timing orientation and international growth orientation are related to its internationalization strategy. Among other results, we find that the firm's accumulated expertise is positively related for both the international growth orientation and entry timing orientation. The international growth orientation, in turn, is related both to the path type of internationalization the firm employs as well as the geographical diversification in market entry. In other words, the results suggest that the firm's resource-base influences on both its entry timing orientation and to the internationalization strategy. These and other findings are discussed with regard to their scholarly and managerial implications.     

技术性贸易壁垒的双重性质及甄别机制

技术性贸易壁垒具有双重性质,提供基于市场失灵的保护和基于经济利益的保护.不同性质的技术性贸易壁垒经济效应有所不同,并将导致不同的政策取向,因而其性质区分是很重要的.规制技术性贸易壁垒的TBT和SPS协议为识别可疑壁垒提供了一些基本准则.本文从政策目标和政策结果两个层面剖析技术性贸易壁垒的双重性质及其甄别机制,并在此基础上提出技术性贸易壁垒自由化的现实路径.     

The trade comovement puzzle and the margins of international trade

Countries that trade more with each other tend to have more strongly correlated business cycles. Yet, traditional international business cycle models predict a much weaker link between trade and business cycle comovement. We propose that fluctuations in the number of varieties embedded in trade flows may drive the observed comovement by increasing the correlation among trading partners' aggregate productivity. Our hypothesis is that business cycles should be more strongly correlated between countries that trade a wider variety of goods. We find empirical support for this hypothesis. After decomposing trade into its extensive and intensive margins, we find that the extensive margin explains most of the trade–productivity and trade–output comovement. This result is striking because the extensive margin accounts for only a fourth of the variability in total trade. We then develop a two-country model with heterogeneous firms, endogenous entry, and fixed export costs, in which the aggregate productivity correlation increases with trade in varieties. A numerical exercise shows that our proposed mechanism increases business cycle synchronization compared with the levels predicted by traditional models.     

我国食品贸易竞争力的现状及对策研究——基于食品安全体系的视角

作为农业大国,食品贸易是我国对外贸易的重要组成部分。文章运用恒定市场份额模型与各种指数从纵向、横向角度分析了我国食品贸易竞争力的变化状况。研究显示,近些年我国食品贸易竞争力有衰退的趋势,食品安全问题是导致我国食品贸易竞争力下降的直接原因,而食品贸易中的SPS协议、官方标准和私营标准是影响我国食品贸易竞争力的国际原因。基于此,必须完善法规、强化监管、统一标准、跟踪国际。     

Per capita income,market access costs,and trade volumes

There is strong empirical evidence that countries with lower per capita income tend to have smaller trade volumes even after controlling for aggregate income. Furthermore, poorer countries do not just trade less, but have a lower number of trading partners. In this paper, I construct and estimate a general equilibrium model of trade that captures both these features of the trade data. The key element of the model is an association between trade costs (both variable and fixed) and countries' development levels, which can account for the effect of per capita income on trade volumes and explain many zeros in bilateral trade flows. I find that market access costs play an important role in fitting the model to the data. In a counterfactual analysis, I find that removing the asymmetries in trade costs raises welfare in all countries with an average percentage change equal to 29% and larger gains for smaller and poorer countries. Real income inequality falls by 43%.