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1.
Abstract

We highlight the role of natural resources in countries that use resource revenues to subsidize employment in state-owned services sectors by developing a model of service provision where domestic incumbents and a foreign entrant compete. We find that when natural resource prices have a higher likelihood of increasing, domestic firms control most of the market share but that industry output drops. However, the output of the services industry rises with domestic firms losing market share when natural resource prices are likely to go down. This suggests that a government focused narrowly only on the growth and development of its economy would prefer services liberalization when natural resource prices are likely to be higher.  相似文献   

2.
We compute zero‐coupon bond prices in the Dothan model by solving the associated PDE using integral representations of heat kernels and Hartman–Watson distributions. We obtain several integral formulas for the price P(t, T) at time t > 0 of a bond with maturity T > 0 that complete those of the original paper of Dothan, which are shown not to always satisfy the boundary condition P(T, T) = 1 .  相似文献   

3.
We present a novel efficient algorithm for portfolio selection which theoretically attains two desirable properties:
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4.
The paper considers the following mechanism of intertemporal decisions in a linear multisector production model: at each time t a program for two time periods t, t + 1 is worked out but is followed only during the first period t, after which the rest of the program is replaced by a new two-period program for t + 1, t + 2, etc. Terminal conditions in these two-period programs are continually adapted to the current state. The result of the procedure, called an adaptive rolling plan, is shown to yield growth of production at the maximum rate over time which is a natural intertemporal optimality criterion for the production model. It is also demonstrated that adaptive rolling plans can be realized in a decentralized economy, and therefore they provide an intertemporally decentralized mechanism of achieving maximum growth.  相似文献   

5.
We consider evaluation methods for payoffs with an inherent financial risk as encountered for instance for portfolios held by pension funds and insurance companies. Pricing such payoffs in a way consistent to market prices typically involves combining actuarial techniques with methods from mathematical finance. We propose to extend standard actuarial principles by a new market‐consistent evaluation procedure which we call “two‐step market evaluation.” This procedure preserves the structure of standard evaluation techniques and has many other appealing properties. We give a complete axiomatic characterization for two‐step market evaluations. We show further that in a dynamic setting with continuous stock prices every evaluation which is time‐consistent and market‐consistent is a two‐step market evaluation. We also give characterization results and examples in terms of g‐expectations in a Brownian‐Poisson setting.  相似文献   

6.
The purpose of this study was to investigate the empirical properties of stock market response. The financial impact of corporate sponsorship is reflected in the market value of a firm's stock price, which is measured by comparing the abnormal stock return between the preevent window (250 trading days) and the 14 trading days of the event period. Computations of ARs, CARs, and other test statistics were based on the event study model and were carried out using the SAS 9.2 software. For the preevent windows (t = ?3, t = ?1), there were statistically significant positive ARs and 80% of the TOP sponsors showed positive ARs in the overall duration of the Olympic Games. The overall CARs during the event period (t = ?3 through t = +10) indicates marginally positive returns for the event.  相似文献   

7.
The role of proprietary information in forecasting and market efficiency in the U.S. live cattle futures market is investigated. Using a unique proprietary data source collected by a private firm, we test whether the initial estimates in the USDA Cattle on Feed Report and the Knight‐Ridder pre‐release forecasts are unbiased and efficient forecasts of final revised USDA Cattle on Feed Report numbers. We then use these results to test whether futures price movements are predictable based on information in the proprietary data. We also test whether the initial estimates from the Cattle on Feed Report have new information that moves prices once the information contained in the proprietary data source has been taken into account. Results suggest that the information contained in the proprietary data source does have statistically significant explanatory power for forecasting final revised Cattle on Feed Report numbers and for predicting short‐term price movements of futures contracts. The results are inconsistent with strong‐form market efficiency in the live cattle futures market. We also find that the initial estimates in the Cattle on Feed Report still have new information that moves prices even after accounting for the unique information in both the Knight‐Ridder pre‐release forecasts and the proprietary data. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 24:429–451, 2004  相似文献   

8.
This paper provides new evidence on how export status relates to prices and product quality. Using firm-product-level data on production, exports and imports for a sample of Danish manufacturing firms, we present three key correlations. First, exported varieties are on average sold at lower prices relative to only domestically sold varieties. Second, exported varieties have higher quality measured by ‘demand residuals’ (i.e., they have larger sales conditional on price). Finally, exported varieties are produced using cheaper imported intermediates. We introduce the term ‘quality-cum-price sorting’ to describe this sorting environment. The observed sorting behaviour in terms of output quality and import prices works not just across firms, but also within multi-product firms across the product portfolio. In contrast, the negative exporter premium in terms of output prices vanishes once firm-level unobservables are accounted for—consistent with the idea that unobserved firm efficiency is driving the negative correlation.  相似文献   

9.
Entrepreneurial networks create an important entrepreneurial opportunity and facilitate resource acquisition. However, there has been little research on the correlation between the types of guanxi networks and entrepreneurial growth. This paper divides entrepreneurial/managerial networks into embedded guanxi networks based on social relationship and non-economic trade contracts, and market guanxi networks based on market negotiation. Hypotheses are proposed on how the embedded/market guanxi networks evolve with enterprise age and size. Data from 270 Chinese enterprises are used to empirically test the above classification and hypotheses. The results justify the new dichotomy for guanxi networks. It is also shown that, as an enterprise grows in age and size, its utilization of embedded guanxi network tends to decrease while its reliance on market guanxi network increases. In addition, as an enterprise grows in size and age, the impact of embedded guanxi network on enterprise performance remains significant, while the impact of market guanxi network keeps increasing.  相似文献   

10.
For more than 50 years, numerous studies have shown low price–quality correlation coefficients, mostly close to 0.2. That prices fail to function as valid indicators of product quality has been interpreted as informational market failure. This article, however, argues, that, according to the economic theory of price formation, prices are not an indicator of quality, but an indicator of scarcity. This allows the conclusion that workable consumer goods markets, at least as seen from the consumer’s point of view, should be characterized by low or even negative correlation coefficients rather than by strong positive coefficients.  相似文献   

11.
When the US Supreme Court gave attorneys in the US the right to advertise their fees for routine legal services, the Court assumed that such fees would fall as a result of attorney advertising. According to economic theory, however, it is not clear what impact seller advertising will have on market prices. A major research effort designed to measure the price effects of attorney advertising in the USA began one year after the Bates decision. Some of the major findings of that study are presented in this paper. While none of the study's results so far indicates that the price effects of attorney advertising in the short run are likely to be substantial, the results suggest that the level of routine legal service fees may fall slightly or remain unchanged in constant dollar terms as a result of attorneys' use of advertising to promote their services and prices.  相似文献   

12.
This paper empirically studies a model for pricing risky corporate bonds proposed by Baaquie—based on the seminal Merton. The proposed model provides an exact solution for the price of a risky corporate bond with a finite maturity and explains the market price of corporate fixed coupon bonds as being the result of the market risk that is carried by the bond. Baaquie's model is empirically tested using 42 fixed coupon bonds issued by 23 US corporations, between 2011 and 2017. It is found that the proposed model estimates most bond prices quite accurately. Market time (similar to the concept of psychological time), which is distinct from calendar time, is quantified in the paper and is an exogenous behavioral parameter that plays a pivotal role in improving the accuracy of the pricing model for long-maturity risky bonds.  相似文献   

13.
Crude oil prices have fallen markedly during recent months, so much so that the OPEC countries finally took action and resolved to curb production levels. Is the oil market becoming accustomed to ongoing geopolitical risks, and are oil price developments now being more strongly determined by fundamental market data once again?  相似文献   

14.
We investigate the information content in Chinese warrant prices based on an option pricing framework that incorporates short‐selling and margin‐trading constraints in the underlying stock market. We show that Chinese warrant prices can be explained under this pricing framework. On the basis of this new model, we develop a price deviation measure to quantify stock market investors' unobserved demand for short selling or margin trading due to market constraints. We find that warrant‐price deviations are driven by underlying stock valuation to a great extent. Chinese warrant prices, save for the time around expiration dates, are better characterized as derivatives than as pure bubbles.  相似文献   

15.

This paper is the first to empirically compare the impact of fuel price on ridership of taxicabs and transportation network companies (TNCs) like Uber and Lyft. We build a theoretical model of the car service market to demonstrate how drivers under the two systems may have different reactions to fuel prices. Although all drivers pay for their own gasoline, TNC drivers have more flexibility in reducing their supply when operating costs are relatively higher. Due to greater regulation, taxi drivers are more fixed in their supply but receive a “rigidity dividend” from paying greater gas costs while profiting from the reduced competition when TNC drivers leave the market. Through ordinary least squares and seemingly unrelated regression estimation, we find that a 1-day 1% increase of fuel prices in New York City is associated with a 0.367% to 0.486% decrease in trips from TNCs, while the quantity of taxi trips will slightly increase by 0.033% to 0.088%. Empirical results additionally show a diminishing marginal effect for the fuel price elasticity of TNC trips.

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16.
The current study analyses consumer judgements about some existing as well as newly introduced brands of a processed cassava food product (fufu flour) by means of market testing. Except for colour, the respondents’ evaluation of the sensory attributes of the various fufu flours that they have consumed did not have much significant differences. Also, no significant differences in sensory attributes were identified when the fufu flour brands were compared with traditional fufu, except for hand‐feel, smoothness and elasticity. In addition, no significant differences were observed in the prices of the various fufu flour brands in comparison with the equivalent price of traditional fufu. The study finds diversification of the marketing outlet for fufu flour as a major factor that could contribute to improving the awareness of the product.  相似文献   

17.
Under the efficient market hypothesis, option‐implied forward variance forms a martingale and changes in forward variance follow a random walk. In this study, we extract forward variance from option prices following a model‐free approach and empirically test the random walk hypothesis. Although results from standard orthogonality tests support the martingale restriction, further results from autoregressive regressions seem to reject the martingale restriction as daily changes in forward variance are found to exhibit negative autocorrelation. However, this anomalous pattern of negative correlation is fully explained by illiquidity effects. Overall, the findings support the random walk hypothesis and informational efficiency of the options market. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 32:505–535, 2012  相似文献   

18.
Extant theoretical models suggest that greater consumer loyalty increases a firm’s market power and leads to higher prices and fewer price promotions (Klemperer, Quarterly Journal of Economics 102(2):375–394, 1987a, Economic Journal 97(0):99–177, 1987b, Review of Economic Studies 62(4):515–539, 1995; Padilla, Journal of Economic Theory 67(2):520–530, 1995). However, in some markets large, national brands that are able to generate more consumer loyalty than their rivals offer lower prices and promote more frequently. In this paper, we develop a two-period game-theoretic, asymmetric duopoly model in which firms differ in their ability to retain repeat, loyal buyers. In this market, we demonstrate that it is optimal for a firm that generates more loyalty to offer a lower average price and promote more frequently than a weaker competitor. Numerical analysis of a more general infinite period version of this asymmetric model leads to three additional results. First, we show that there is an inverted-U relationship between a weak firm’s ability to attract repeat, loyal consumers and strong firm profits. Second, we show that the relative ability of firms to attract repeat buyers affects whether serial and contemporaneous price correlations are positive or negative. Finally, we highlight the effect of dynamics on firms’ expected prices and profits.
Nanda KumarEmail:
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19.
Current Account Deficits (CAD) in Turkey have reached significantly high levels in the recent years and discussions around the sustainability of these deficits continue. On the other hand, thanks to its rapid development within the same period, the tourism sector is observed to increase its positive contribution to the current accounts balances. This study is an initiative to highlight the contribution of the tourism sector to the sustainability of the CAD in Turkey. Unit root and Cointegration tests have been used to this end. This approach is applied to the long-run relationship between Exports + Tourism Receipts (X + TR) and Imports + Tourism Expenditures (M + TE) for the period of 1980Q1–2005Q2. We question the weak sustainability hypothesis where the cointegrating vector is (X + TR)t = a + b(M + TE)t + η t . In this vector, if b equals to one and ηt is stationary, then the current account deficits are strongly sustainable, if b is between 0 and 1(0 < b < 1) and ηt is stationary or b = 1 but ηt is non-stationary, then the current account deficits are weakly sustainable and lastly, if there is no cointegration or b = 0, then the current account deficits are unsustainable. The empirical results indicate that CAD in Turkey are unsustainable in spite of the rising shares of tourism receipts in current account balances. Therefore, in Turkey, where exports are exceedingly depended on imports, which makes it not very easy to reduce imports, the only way to ensure that CAD are sustainable is to seek options to further increase the tourism receipts.  相似文献   

20.
We formulate the notion of “asymptotic free lunch” which is closely related to the condition “free lunch” of Kreps (1981) and allows us to state and prove a fairly general version of the fundamental theorem of asset pricing in the context of a large financial market as introduced by Kabanov and Kramkov (1994). In a large financial market one considers a sequence (Sn)n=1 of stochastic stock price processes based on a sequence (Ωn, Fn, (Ftn)tIn, Pn)n=1 of filtered probability spaces. Under the assumption that for all n∈ N there exists an equivalent sigma‐martingale measure for Sn, we prove that there exists a bicontiguous sequence of equivalent sigma‐martingale measures if and only if there is no asymptotic free lunch (Theorem 1.1). Moreover we present an example showing that it is not possible to improve Theorem 1.1 by replacing “no asymptotic free lunch” by some weaker condition such as “no asymptotic free lunch with bounded” or “vanishing risk.”  相似文献   

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