Doha Merchandise Trade Reform: What Is at Stake for Developing Countries?

The LINKAGE model of the global economy and the latest GlobalTrade Analysis Project (GTAP) database (version 6.05) are usedto examine the impact of current merchandise trade barriersand agricultural subsidies and possible reform outcomes of theWorld Trade Organization’s (WTO’s) Doha DevelopmentAgenda. The results suggest that moving to free global merchandisetrade would boost real incomes in Sub-Saharan Africa proportionatelymore than in other developing countries or in high-income countries,despite the terms of trade loss in parts of that region. Particularattention is given to agriculture, as farmers constitute thepoorest households in developing countries but the most assistedin rich countries. Net farm incomes would rise substantiallyin Sub-Saharan Africa and other developing country regions,alleviating rural poverty. Partial liberalization could movethe world some way toward those desirable outcomes, the moreso the more developing countries themselves cut applied tariffs,particularly on agricultural imports.     

World betas, consumption growth, and financial integration

We define a country’s beta as the covariance of domestic consumption growth with world consumption growth scaled by the world’s variance. Beta is related to a country’s risk-taking position in models of international financial integration. Empirically, we find that an increase in beta leads to an increase in average consumption growth. This beta-growth relationship is present only among countries with high levels of financial openness, and is absent among the rest. However, we cannot fully discard the presence of non-financial factors (e.g., trade openness) as determinants of the beta-growth relationship.     

Public Debt Management and Macroeconomic Stability: An Overview

Recent research suggests that management of the public sector’sdebt can have important effects on a country’s macroeconomicperformance. This article provides an overview of the factorsthat the recent literature has identified as important in determiningthe optimal composition of the public debt. Based on this analysis,it attempts to establish general guidelines for public debtmanagement in emerging economies. To retain market access andpromote domestic financial market development, governments shouldgenerally finance themselves at market rates using a wide varietyof securities. Beyond this general principle, the optimal compositionof the public debt involves a tradeoff between enhancing thegovernment’s anti–inflationary credibility and reducingthe vulnerability of its budget to macroeconomic shocks. Consequently,the optimal composition of the debt depends on a country’scircumstances. Debt should be heavily weighted toward long-termnominal securities for governments that have anti–inflationarycredibility and toward long-term indexed debt for those thatdo not.      

Tracking NAFTA's Shadow 10 Years on: Introduction to the Symposium

The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) is arguablythe first "case study" of what might be expected from the increasingnumber of preferential trade agreements involving both developedand developing economies. Ten years after the treaty’sinception, it is time to assess how its outcomes compare withinitial expectations. The articles in this symposium issue provideinsights into the effects of NAFTA on economic geography, trade,wages and migration, and foreign investment from Mexico’sperspective. The contributions paint a complex post-NAFTA realitycharacterized by persistent intrabloc trade barriers, interregionalinequality within Mexico, labor market outcomes that seem closelytied to migration patterns and international trade and investment,and foreign investment flows that appear weakly related to tradeagreements. NAFTA seems to be the first trade agreement in historyfor which the traditional static trade creation or diversioneffects are likely negligible—and hard to identify inany case.     

The Primacy of Institutions Reconsidered: Direct Income Effects of Malaria Prevalence

Some recent empirical studies deny any direct effect of geographyon development and conclude that institutions dominate all otherpotential determinants of development. An alternative view emphasizesthat geographic factors such as disease ecology, as proxiedby the prevalence of malaria, may have a large negative effecton income, independent of the quality of a country’s institutions.For instance, pandemic malaria may create a large economic burdenbeyond medical costs and forgone earnings by affecting householdbehavior and such macroeconomic variables as international investmentand trade. After controlling for institutional quality, malariaprevalence is found to cause quantitatively important negativeeffects on income. The robustness of this finding is checkedby employing alternative instrumental variables, tests of overidentificationrestrictions, and tests of the validity of the point estimatesand standard errors in the presence of weak instruments. Thebaseline findings appear to be robust to using alternative specifications,instrumentations, and samples. The reported estimates suggestthat good institutions may be necessary but not sufficient forgenerating a persistent process of successful economic development.     

Developing Countries' Changing Participation in World Trade

Recent years have seen substantial reductions in trade policyand other barriers inhibiting developing country participationin world trade. Lower barriers have contributed to a dramaticshift in the pattern of developing country trade—awayfrom dependence on commodity exports to much greater relianceon manufactures and services. In addition, exports to otherdeveloping countries have become much more important. Thesechanges have profound implications for the role played by developingcountries in the world economy and trade system.      

Bank privatization in developing and developed countries: Cross-sectional evidence on the impact of economic and political factors

We examine how political, institutional, and economic factors are related to a country’s decision to privatize state-owned banks. Using a panel of 101 countries from 1982 to 2000, we find that political factors significantly affect the likelihood of bank privatization only in developing countries. Specifically, in non-OECD countries, bank privatization is more likely the more accountable the government is to its people. In contrast, none of our political variables affects the bank privatization decision in developed countries. Economic factors (such as the quality of the nation’s banking sector) are significant determinants of bank privatization in both OECD and non-OECD nations.     

论反倾销中的替代国制度及我国的法律对策

替代国制度作为反倾销调查中针对"非市场经济"国家出口产品计算"正常价值"的一种特殊方法,其合法性被WTO规则所确认。该制度存在理论基础界定不明,实践中被进口国滥用等缺陷,宜从明确非市场经济国家标准、限制替代国适用等方面进行完善。中国作为替代国制度滥用的最大受害国之一,在国际层面,应正确解读《中国入世议定书》第15条、运用WTO争端解决机制、积极签署多边或双边协定、警惕"特殊市场状况"条款、采取适度合理的贸易保护反制措施等,在国内层面,应进一步推动市场化改革、完善反倾销法、建立反倾销调查预警机制、主动提供替代国等,统筹考量、综合权衡、精准对策,充分依据既有国际贸易规则,以期切实维护国家和企业在国际贸易中的合法权益。     

Country-specific sentiment and security prices

I study the effect of country-specific sentiment on security prices. I provide evidence that a country’s popularity among Americans affects US investors’ demand for securities from that country and causes security prices to deviate from their fundamental values. Moreover, I find that country popularity is positively associated with the intensity of US cross-border mergers and acquisitions activity, suggesting that country popularity also affects firms’ investment decisions.     

Some Policy Lessons from the Opening of the Korean Insurance Market

This article examines the recent dispute between the UnitedStates and the Republic of Korea over the opening of Korea'sinsurance market to U.S. companies. The article assesses theinterests and motivations of both countries that lay behindthe formal arguments presented during the negotiation process.It also analyzes whether the long-run interests of both developingand industrial countries would be well served by the approachto the opening of the market adopted in this case—sharingthe rent while continuing to regulate the insurance market.The analysis suggests that the opening of a developing country'sinsurance market (or the wider financial services market) wouldserve the long-run interests of both developing and industrialcountries only if it were accomplished in the context of overalldomestic liberalization of the finance industry. "Opening" ofthe market, if this means only the sharing of the rents thatwere generated by regulation of the market, is unlikely to bebeneficial to developing countries.     

Trade in Services and the Multilateral Trade Negotiations

The dispute between developed and developing countries overthe inclusion of services in the Uruguay Round of trade negotiationsreflects critical differences in perspective on substantiveissues. In particular, these substantive divisions arise fromthe differences between services and goods in matters such asregulation and the requirement in many instances of freedomto move productive factors across national boundaries—forexample, the "right to establish" that would permit the providerof services to get to the user. In addition, developing countriessee the developed countries as seeking concessions on servicetrade in exchange for removal of the latter's existing and potentialbarriers on trade in goods, rather than establishing quid proquos within the service compact itself. Developing countrieshave possible export advantages in the service sector and havemuch to gain by joining actively in negotiating a services compactthat permits them to exploit these advantages.     

Economic Reform and Labor Unions: A General-Equilibrium Analysis Applied to Bangladesh and Indonesia

Noting the trend toward more independent trade unions in developingcountries, this article examines whether the presence of unionsstrengthens or weakens the benefits to be gained from economicpolicy reform. We show that the presence of "passive" unions—onesthat choose their wage-employment contract given the firm'scost-minimizing strategy—increases the welfare gains fromtrade liberalization, because trade reform lowers the wage premiumenjoyed by the unionized sector, reducing a distortion in thelabor market. These gains are amplified when the unions are"active", namely, when they negotiate a contract with the firmthat is off its labor demand curve. Such a contract resultsin featherbedding—paying workers more than their marginalproduct—and trade reform reduces the amount of featherbedding.The policy implication for Bangladesh—a country with strongtrade unions and a protected unionized sector—is thatthe benefits of further trade liberalization may be greaterthan otherwise predicted. In Indonesia, where both unionizationand import tariffs are low, allowing greater independence tounions may preserve flexibility and reward workers better thanthe current minimum-wage policy.     

Trade, Production, and Protection Database, 1976-2004

The database described in this article provides researcherswith a broad set of data on trade, production, and protectionfor 28 manufacturing sectors at the three-digit level of theInternational Standard Industrial Classification, Revision 2.The database covers up to 100 developing and developed countriesover the period 1976–2004, but data availability variesby country and year. The trade, production, and protection databaseis available online and can be freely accessed through the WorldBank trade website.     

环境规制与中国对外贸易发展

环境规制是指以环境保护为目的而制订与实施的各项政策与措施的总和。就一般情况而言．出口国环境规制的实施将增加资源密集型产品的生产成本,改变国内的要素配置和生产结构,削弱本国资源密集型产品或高污染产品的出口竞争能力。进口国环境规制更多地表现为贸易壁垒的形式,如“环境倾销”、“社会倾销”等,并对比较竞争优势造成扭曲。多边环境规制对比较竞争优势的影响主要是通过对不同国家环境标准差异的协调来实现的,它虽然有助于缓解发达国家环境壁垒对世界贸易自由化发展的不利影响,但并不能改变环境标准短期内可能给发展中国家和地区比较竞争优势的消极作用;根据“波特假说”,设计良好的环境规制虽然在长期效果上可能会激发企业的创新行为．但短期内调整成本对有关国家产品的竞争力将产生不利影响。因此,作为发展中国家,我们尽管要对内应坚持环境友好型贸易发展方向,但对外必须在强调历史公平的基础上争取合理的“排污权”,这对维护贸易环境和平顺贸易结构转换是非常重要的。     

On the determinants of Original Sin: an empirical investigation

Most countries do not borrow abroad in their own currency, a fact that has been referred to as “Original Sin”. This paper describes the incidence of the problem and makes an attempt at uncovering its cause. The paper finds weak support for the idea that the level of development, institutional quality, or monetary credibility or fiscal solvency is correlated with Original Sin. Only the absolute size of the economy is robustly correlated. The paper also explores the determinants of a country’s capacity to borrow at home at long duration and in local currency. It finds that monetary credibility and the presence of capital controls are positively correlated with this capacity.     

Price Effects of Preferential Market Access: Caribbean Basin Initiative and the Apparel Sector

Preferential trade arrangements should be evaluated by theireffect on prices rather than by their effect on the total valueof trade. This point is emphasized in the theoretical literaturebut rarely implemented empirically. This article analyzes theU.S. Caribbean Basin Initiative’s (CBI’s) impacton the prices received by eligible apparel exporters. The CBI’sapparel preferences are the most important and heavily usedunilateral preferences because of high trade barriers imposedon exports from the rest of the world. A fixed-effects generalizedleast squares (GLS) estimation is used to isolate the effectsof other factors (such as quality, exchange rates, and transactioncosts) and to identify the effects of tariff preferences. CBIexporters capture only about two-thirds of their preferencemargin despite the high degree of competition among importers.This translates into a 9 percent increase in the relative pricesthey receive, with some variance across countries and years.Countries specializing in higher value items capture more ofthe preference margin, and the implementation of the North AmericanFree Trade Agreement (NAFTA) has a negative effect. RemovingMultifibre Arrangement quotas significantly lowers the benefitsof CBI preferences.     

Shadow economies around the world: novel insights, accepted knowledge, and new estimates

This paper is a first attempt to study the impact of enforcement on the shadow economy. Using a MIMIC model, we find that a higher share of sub-national government employment and the aspiration of public employees to follow rules significantly deter shadow economic activities. Our results also confirm previous findings: Increased burdens of taxation and regulation as well as the state of the “official” economy are important determinants of the shadow economy. The estimated weighted average informality in 162 countries around the world, including developing, Eastern European, Central Asian, and high-income OECD countries, is 17.1% of “official” GDP.     

Foreign Direct Investment in Mexico since the Approval of NAFTA

Cross-country panel data are used to assess the effect of free-tradeagreements on flows of foreign direct investment (FDI). Free-tradeagreements are found to have a significant positive effect onFDI flows, and free-trade agreements are found to matter morefor the smaller members of the agreement. For example, the NorthAmerican Free-Trade Agreement’s (NAFTA) effect on FDIflows into Mexico is much larger than its effect on flows intothe United States. These cross-country results are used to assessNAFTA’s effect on FDI flows into Mexico. After controllingfor a set of other factors—such as an increase in worldwideFDI flows—the trade agreement is found to generate FDIflows nearly 60 percent higher than they would have been withoutthe agreement.     

A discussion of “Inter-industry network structure and the cross-predictability of earnings and stock returns”

Aobdia et al. (Rev Account Stud, 2014) view the economy as a network of customers and suppliers. Using the 1997 input–output trade flow data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis to model the inter-industry network, they examine whether an industry’s position in the network, in particular, its “network centrality,” affects the transmission of information and economic shocks. They find that, compared to the accounting performance and stock returns of noncentral industries, those of central industries are explained by aggregate risks to a greater extent and are more highly associated with the contemporaneous and future performance of their linked industries. These findings suggest that network centrality matters—it plays an important role in how economic shocks are transmitted within the economy. The question of why network centrality matters, however, remains unanswered. A fruitful avenue for future research is to explore the origin of shocks to shed light on the fundamental question of whether sectoral shocks can aggregate into macro shocks.     

贸易摩擦、宏观经济波动与经济开放程度的选择

本文构建一个包含关税冲击以及外汇风险溢价的两国开放经济DSGE模型,创新地揭示了关税冲击造成实际汇率波动的“直接效应”与“间接效应”,刻画了关税变动、贸易条件与实际汇率之间的动态关系与作用机制。我们深入分析了不同经济开放程度下贸易摩擦造成的宏观经济波动以及经济福利损失。模拟结果表明,在一定贸易开放程度下,外国加收关税一方面会导致本国贸易条件恶化,引发出口及产出下降;另一方面会导致本国汇率贬值,引发出口及产出增长。关税冲击发生后短期中汇率贬值效应占优,本国产出会出现小幅上升,随后贸易条件恶化效应逐步显现,产出持续下降。福利分析结果表明,本国适度提升贸易开放度,虽然经济福利损失会小幅上升,但福利损失增加幅度小于外国,会在贸易摩擦竞争中形成相对优势;如果本国过度提高贸易开放度,则会导致本国福利损失大幅增加,并且大于外国福利损失增幅,会在贸易摩擦竞争中形成相对劣势。因此,应适度逐步有序地提升贸易开放度。此外,本国适度推进资本账户开放的政策能够改善贸易条件,促进本国经济增长。