The Effect of Fiscal Decentralization on Corruption: A Non‐linear Hypothesis

This study advances the literature on the effect of decentralization on corruption by proposing a theoretical motivation for the hypothesis that the corruption‐minimizing decentralization arrangement prescribes intermediate decentralization degrees: a ‘middle’ decision‐making power of local governors may mitigate the tradeoff between the rent‐seeking incentive for local politicians and the effectiveness of their voters’ monitoring. The estimation of a non‐linear empirical model strongly confirms that a decentralization degree between 15% and 21% minimizes corruption even through different estimation procedures, introduction of control variables and the use of internal and external IV and of alternative decentralization and corruption measurements.     

Labour Market Regulations and the Sectoral Reallocation of Workers: The Case of Trade Reforms

In this paper I highlight the importance of incorporating the institutional features of local labour markets into the analysis of trade reforms. A trade reform is often deemed beneficial because the elimination of trade barriers allows labour to reallocate towards those sectors in the economy in which the country has a comparative advantage. The amount and speed of the reallocation, however, and the post-reform behaviour of output, productivity and welfare, will depend on how regulated the labour market is. First, I document that high firing costs slow down the intersectoral reallocation of labour after a trade reform. Second, in order to isolate the effect of firing costs on labour reallocation, output and welfare after a trade reform, I build a dynamic general equilibrium model. I find that if a country does not liberalize its labour market at the outset of its trade reform, the intersectoral reallocation of workers will be 30% slower, and as much as 30% of the gains in real output and labour productivity in the years following the trade reform will be lost. From a policy standpoint, the message is that while trade reforms are desirable, they need to be complemented by labour market reforms in order to be fully successful.     

A Non‐linear Model of the Trade Cycle: Mathematical Reflections on Hugh Hudson's Classic

Hugh Hudson's classic article on A Model of the Trade Cycle has never, to the best of our knowledge, received the serious attention it deserved. It was written in what we would like to call the classic Hicks‐Kaldor mode, i.e. relying on ingenious diagrammatic techniques for expository purposes, and, indeed, developing an innovative model of the trade cycle where interaction of monetary and real forces were modelled in terms of elements common to the classic nonlinear endogenous models of these two pioneers. In this paper we reconsider the analytical contents of Hudson's classic, and its expository technique, in the light of later, mathematical, approaches to the same topic. It is a clear example of how a mathematical reading and reformulation of an economically motivated geometric method proves fruitful in furthering the frontiers of economic analysis. Our conclusion is that there is still much to be gained in the expository style adopted by Hudson, especially when viewed mathematically; but, more importantly, there are innovative suggestions and still relevant reflections on theorising and understanding actual performances of advanced industrial economies. Above all Hudson's classic is permeated with the policy underpinnings of a rich model of the trade cycle.     

股指期货对股票市场效率的影响实证分析

通过分析香港恒生指数及其指数期货,研究发现,股指期货对现货价格具有价格发现作用。为防止伪回归问题对分析结果的影响,故采用协整检验和格兰杰（Granger）因果关系检验,就股指期货对市场效率的影响进行验证。研究结果显示,股指期货对现货指数确实存在价格发现功能。     

存款人的市场约束对银行成本效率的影响

本文基于我国2008—2015年65家商业银行的面板数据,从银行效率的独特视角对银行存款人市场约束的有效性进行经验研究.研究结果表明﹕ 存款价格约束和个人定期存款数量约束能够促进银行成本效率的提高;公司存款没有发挥有效的市场约束效应;未保险存款对银行效率有一定影响,但没有发挥正向积极约束效应;隐性存款保险制度不利于存款人市场约束效应的发挥;信息披露有助于存款人市场约束作用的发挥;银行成本效率存在显著的规模经济效应.     

Non‐linear geographics and the economics of transition and democratization1

The purpose of this study is to analyse the effects of geography on the transition process in authoritarian political regimes, and to investigate the nature of the links between political change, economic reforms and geographical location. A simple model of transition and democratization is presented wherein we show that the effectiveness of repression by the incumbent elite is a negative function of the distance to the ‘free world’. In consequence, geography has conflicting effects on shifts in political power. This article provides a rationale for the counterintuitive fact that the first authoritarian country to start a transition process towards democratization is not necessarily the one nearest to the free world.     

市场分割对区域创新资源配置效率的影响

基于2000-2017年中国省际面板数据,实证考察了市场分割对区域创新资源配置效率的影响。研究结果表明,市场分割短期内可以保护地方创新主体,促进本地创新资源配置效率提升,但这种促进效应在长期不可持续并逆转为阻碍效应;各地区的市场分割和创新资源配置效率呈现显著的空间自相关性,无论短期还是长期,市场分割都不利于周边地区创新资源的有效配置;市场分割对创新资源配置效率的影响存在区域异质性,东部地区创新资源配置效率受市场分割的影响最为明显。中国地方政府应该彻底打破地区间市场分割的现状,通过东部地区降低市场分割程度带动中、西部地区作出相应调整,从根本上实现区域创新资源配置效率的协同提高。     

Mega‐Regional Agreements and Their Impact on Australia

This paper estimates the effects of emerging mega‐regional agreements on the economy of Australia using a Computable General Equilibrium model. Scenarios considered include the 11‐member Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans‐Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) agreement, its possible enlargement to include five additional members (‘TPP16’) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) currently under negotiation. The study finds that Australia stands to enjoy real income and trade gains along both the CPTPP and RCEP paths. However, since Australia is already benefiting from its own liberal trade policies and many prior trade agreements, benefits are relatively modest, typically below one per cent of real income.     

农地入市流转对土地资源配置效率的影响

为了提高农村土地的综合利用效益,实现资源的优化配置,本文系统阐述了农地流转对土地资源配置效率的影响.较土地征用而言,农地入市流转能够更好地调动农户参与的积极性,实现资源优化配置,但如果缺乏制度保障,就有可能扭曲资源配置.基于此,本文提出了完善农地入市流转的配套立法、深化集体土地产权变革、明确产权主体及权能、培育农地市场和发展市场中介组织等政策建议.     

股票市场收盘集合竞价对市场有效性的影响——来自深圳证券交易所的证据

笔者基于深圳证券交易所于2006年7月1日收盘采用集合竞价事件,选择事件日前后两个窗口期的交易数据,运用价格同步法分析方法,研究了收盘集合竞价对市场有效性的影响。研究发现:收盘采用集合竞价后,市场交易量、波动性和相对买卖价差均有显著下降,市场模型的解释力显著提高;第二阶段和第三阶段回归方程中的关键参数检验,以及构造的虚拟事件的稳健性检验结果均证明收盘集合竞价显著促进了市场有效性。     

The Impact of Euro on Sectoral Equity Returns and Portfolio Risk

This paper examines the implications of the adoption of the euro and the resulting monetary policy integration for investors in the Euro area in terms of stock market diversification. In particular, we study the difference between investment strategies based on country indices and on sector indices. In addition, we use GARCH-M to model return and volatility for the daily sectoral euro equity indices from 1992 to 2009 to analyze how and to what extent volatility in the sector equity index is driven by shocks occurring in the US, aggregate European equity index, aggregate Euro Zone equity index, and the global equity index. We find strong evidence that diversification over sectors yields more efficient portfolios than diversification over countries and that the volatility spillover of the aggregated Euro zone equity return index on the sectoral equity return index has increased after the launch of the euro.     

The Impact of Labour Market Reforms and Economic Performance on the Matching of the Short‐term and the Long‐term Unemployed

As a reaction to high and persistent unemployment in Germany, the largest labour market reforms in post‐war history were implemented between 2003 and 2005. We analyse the impact of the reforms and its coincidence with an economic expansion on the efficiency of matching out of unemployment. Especially focussing on searcher heterogeneity, we estimate a system of stock‐flow matching functions for short‐term and long‐term unemployment (three‐stage least squares) on the basis of administrative data. In sum, the reforms increased matching efficiency for both groups, but the effect was larger for the long‐term unemployed. The interaction of reforms and economic expansion, however, was not influential.     

The Foreign Trade and Sectoral Impact of Truck Road Pricing for Cross-Border Trade

Truck road pricing is on the brink of beingintroduced in a number of European countries.The experience gained from Switzerland, thefirst country worldwide to implement such adistant-dependent pricing scheme, has provedinvaluable. Nevertheless, significant questionsstill remain. The present paper attempts toprovide some clarity by analysing the welfareand sectoral impact resulting from theintroduction of truck road pricing with respectto foreign trade. It is shown that this impactcan be separated into four effects: the pureterms of trade effect, the tax revenue effect,the transit tax revenue effect and the resourcegain effect (resources set free by a reductionin transport activity). A CGE simulation ofeach of these effects identifies theirquantitative implications. Out of the foureffects the pure terms of trade effect turnsout to dominate at both the sectoral andaggregate level. It triggers a trade-inducedwelfare loss. The tax revenue effect, and lessso the transit revenue effect, mitigate thisloss. For a full road transport costinternalization a trade-induced welfare loss isquantified for Austria at 1.3%. Sensitivity ofthis and other aggregate variables is high withrespect to household reaction to transport taxrevenue refunding. The trade-induced welfareloss of variable size as explored in thisarticle counterbalances a fraction of thewelfare gain due to internalization.     

管理者交易的市场择时能力对市场有效性的影响

管理者卖出和买入公告对股票市场具有一定的影响,以管理者卖出交易和买入交易为公告样本进行实证分析,检验公告当日及给定事件期超额收益的显著性.结果显示:卖出公告样本反对半强式有效假说,管理人能够“卖高”,获得超额收益;而买入公告样本支持半强式有效假说,管理者不能够“买低”,在公告日和事件期都不能获得超额收益.     

Comparing Parametric and Non‐parametric Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Market Economies

This paper compares in‐sample and out‐of‐sample performances of parametric and non‐parametric early warning systems (EWS) for currency crises in emerging economies. The parametric EWS achieves superior out‐of‐sample results compared with the non‐parametric EWS. The policymaker faces a trade‐off when using EWS: greater cautiousness allows the policymaker to correctly call more crisis episodes, but this comes at the cost of issuing more false alarms. The benefit of correctly calling more currency crises needs to be traded off against the cost of issuing more false alarms and of implementing corrective policies prematurely.     

Ability Matters: Effects of Youth Labor‐Market Opportunities on Long‐Term Labor‐Market Outcomes

Utilizing registry data from cognitive ability tests for all Norwegian males born between 1962 and 1973, I study whether labor‐market conditions at the age of graduation have differential effects on earnings and employment for different ability groups. I find that low‐ability males are more vulnerable to local business cycles at the expected time of labor‐market entry. In particular, I demonstrate that low‐ability males suffer larger long‐term earnings losses than the rest of the population.     

The Efficiency of the Market for Bank Accepted Bills*

The speculative efficiency of the Sydney Futures Exchange's market in bank accepted bills is examined by considering if the futures price is an unbiased predictor of the subsequent spot price and if other publicly available information can improve on this predictor. Data spanning the period 1980(1) to 1986(5) are employed The results are adverse to the efficiency hypothesis in that the futures price in some cases is not an unbiased predictor and neither is it an optimal predictor.