Disentangling Treatment Effects of Active Labor Market Policies: The Role of Labor Force Status Sequences

This paper estimates treatment effects of two active labor market policies – a training program and a wage subsidy scheme – on participants' employment probabilities. The analysis is based on unique data from the 18th wave of the Polish Labor Force Survey containing detailed and extensive individual labor force status histories. We discuss two variants of an exact covariate matching procedure adapted to the specific nature of the data. Our study confirms and reinforces a point raised in recent research [Heckman, J.J., Smith, J.A. The Pre-programme Earnings Dip and the Determinants of Participation in a Social Programme: Implications for Simple Programme Evaluation Strategies. The Economic Journal 1999; 109; 313-348., Heckman, J.J., Smith, J.A. The Determinants of Participation in a Social Program: Evidence from a Prototypical Job Training Program. Journal of Labor Economics 2004; 22; 243-298.], that pre-treatment labor force status dynamics play a decisive role in determining program participation. We implement a conditional difference-in-differences estimator of treatment effects based on these individual trinomial sequences of pre-treatment labor market status. The estimator employs a “moving window” technique that nicely controls for changes in the macroeconomic environment over time. Our findings suggest that training raises individual employment probability, while wage subsidies display negative treatment effects for participants in the Polish case.     

Work out or out of work — The labor market return to physical fitness and leisure sports activities

This study is the first to present evidence of the return to leisure sports in the job hiring process by sending fictitious applications to real job openings in the Swedish labor market. In the field experiment job applicants were randomly given different information about their type and level of leisure sports. Applicants who signaled sports skills had a significantly higher callback rate of about 2 percentage points, and this effect was about twice as large for physically demanding occupations.Additional evidence of a sports premium in the regular labor market is arrived at when analyzing the long-run impact of physical fitness on later labor market outcomes. The analysis uses register data on adult earnings and physical fitness when enlisting at age 18. The fitness premium, net of unobservable family variables, is in the order of 4-5%, but diminishes to 2% when controlling for non-cognitive skills.     

Equivalence of central place and economic base theories of urban growth

Economic base theory is discredited as a theory of urban growth; central place theory, although receiving some criticism, continues to enjoy some acclaim. In this paper I show that these two theories are equivalent so that previous criticisms of base theory also apply to central place theory. None-theless, the market expansion in both theories can lead to productivity increases because “the division of labor is limited by the extent of the market.”     

Household search and health insurance coverage

Health insurance in the United States is typically acquired through an employer-sponsored program. Often employees offered employer-provided health insurance have the option to extend coverage to their spouse and dependents. We investigate the implications of the “publicness” of health insurance coverage for the labor market careers of spouses. The theoretical innovations in the paper are to extend the standard partial–partial equilibrium labor market search model to a multiple searcher setting with the inclusion of multi-attribute job offers, with some of the attributes treated as public goods within the household. The model is estimated using data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) using a Method of Simulated Moments (MSM) estimator. We demonstrate how previous estimates of the marginal willingness to pay (MWP) for health insurance based on cross-sectional linear regression estimators may be seriously biased due to the presence of dynamic selection effects and misspecification of the decision-making unit.     

Productivity, employment and labor demand in Polish industry in the 1980s: Some preliminary results from enterprise-level data

The paper uses annual data from a panel of 334 Polish industrial enterprises over the period 1983–1988 to test empirically a simple neoclassical approach to the socialist labor market. First, an enterprise production function is estimated. The paper finds that for most enterprises, the resulting estimated marginal product of labor exceeds the wage paid by the enterprise by a considerable margin, suggesting general excess demand for labor. The paper then looks at how the difference between the MPL and the wage is related to the rate of change of employment, and finds that firms where the MPL is higher than the wage — firms which in a neoclassical model would have a large excess demand for labor — do not shed labor any more slowly than other firms.     

Information shocks and the empirical evaluation of training programs during unemployment spells

We study the role of notifications in the evaluation of training programs for unemployed workers. Using a unique administrative data set containing the dates when information is exchanged between job seekers and caseworkers, we address three questions: Do information shocks, such as notification of future training, have an effect on unemployment duration? What is the joint effect of notification and training programs on unemployment? Can ignoring information shocks lead to a large bias in the estimation of the effect of training programs? We discuss these issues through the lens of a job search model and then conduct an empirical analysis following a “random effects” approach to deal with selectivity. We find that notification has a strong positive effect on the training probability but a negative one on the probability of leaving unemployment. This “attraction” effect highlights the importance of accounting for notifications in the evaluation of active labor market policies.     

Predicting benchmarked US state employment data in real time

US payroll employment data come from a survey and are subject to revisions. While revisions are generally small at the national level, they can be large enough at the state level to alter assessments of current economic conditions. Users must therefore exercise caution in interpreting state employment data until they are “benchmarked” against administrative data 5–16 months after the reference period. This article develops a state-space model that predicts benchmarked state employment data in real time. The model has two distinct features: (1) an explicit model of the data revision process and (2) a dynamic factor model that incorporates real-time information from other state-level labor market indicators. We find that the model reduces the average size of benchmark revisions by about 11 percent. When we optimally average the model’s predictions with those of existing models, the model reduces the average size of the revisions by about 14 percent.     

Automation and Job Polarization: On the Decline of Middling Occupations in Europe

Using data from 10 Western European countries, I provide evidence that the fall in prices of information technologies (IT) is associated with a lower share of employment in middle‐wage occupations and a higher share of employment in high wage occupations in industries which depend more on IT relative to industries which depend less. Similar results hold within gender and age groups, with notable differences in these groups. For instance, the share of employment in high wage occupations among males has increased less than among females with the fall in IT prices.     

Organisational impact of information technology on the banking and insurance sector in Nigeria

The importance of information technology (IT) in the modern day business transaction cannot be over-emphasised. The impact assessment of the technology on any business is expedient so as to objectively determine its influence on a specific aspect of the organisation. This study therefore assessed the organisational impact of IT on some banks and insurance firms in Nigeria.Eight leading commercial banks and six highly rated insurance firms which have branches in Lagos, the commercial nerve centre of Nigeria, and two other important state capitals, were selected for this study.Data were obtained from both the customers and workers at the banks and insurance firms. The data were analysed using percentage and five-point Likert scale to objectively determine the local and global impacts of IT on the banks and insurance firms.The local impact criteria considered are: time savings, error rate reduction, enhanced management decision making, and improved service delivery. On the 5-point likert scale, there was positive impact on IT on the local criteria in the mean range of 1–3 at Lagos and Ibadan with Osogbo having a mean in the range of 3–5 which indicates otherwise. Also, the calculated mean of the IT impact on global criteria such as competitive advantage, high revenue generation, market segmentation and forecasting are in the range of 1–3 for all sampled cites.The study also revealed that there was positive impact of IT on both the induced local and global criteria. The induced local impact criteria identified are competitive advantage, market segmentation, high revenue generation, and forecasting while development of business niche, increased market share and network insecurity constituted the induced global impact criteria.     

Race,Self‐Employment,and Labor Absorption

Past studies have argued that in the large cities of developing societies, unemployment is often alleviated when displaced workers are absorbed into the small‐scale entrepreneurial activities of the informal economy. The present study applies this argument to an analysis of women's self‐employment in the U.S. South during the Great Depression. Census data show that in large southern cities in 1940, the unemployment of black women was meaningfully reduced by the self‐employment of these women in domestic service. These data further suggest that dynamics of race, unemployment, and the self‐employment of women in domestic service can be represented by an inverted‐U‐shaped labor absorption curve. These results make several contributions to research on race, labor‐market disadvantage, and self‐employment in the informal sector.     

Effects of U.S. equal employment opportunity and affirmative action programs on women's employment stability

An important labor market issue in the United States is the effect that the Equal Employment Opportunity and affirmative action programs that were implemented in 1965 have had on the employment of women relative to that of men. Using time series data covering the period 1947–1988, an analysis of this issue is undertaken. The results indicate that women in the 20–54 age group benefitted in terms of greater stability of employment (i.e., less sensitivity to short run variations in employment) over the period 1965–1980 while they lost some of these gains over the period 1981–1988 (corresponding to the tenure of the Reagan Administration). Men in the same age group, on the other hand, experienced the opposite effect. That is, men in the 20–54 age group became more sensitive to short run variations in employment over the period 1965–1980 and less sensitive over the period 1981–1988. The evidence also indicates that the EEO and affirmative action programs had the effect of increasing the share of projected employment of women in the 20–54 age group and in the 55–64 age group while decreasing the share of projected employment of men in the comparable age groups.     

Neighborhood quality and labor market outcomes: Evidence from quasi-random neighborhood assignment of immigrants

Settlement in a socially deprived neighborhood may hamper individual labor market outcomes because of lack of employed or highly skilled contacts. I investigate this hypothesis by exploiting a unique natural experiment that occurred between 1986 and 1998 when refugee immigrants to Denmark were assigned to municipalities quasi-randomly, which successfully addresses the methodological problem of endogenous neighborhood selection. I show that individuals sort into neighborhoods. Taking account of location sorting, living in a socially deprived neighborhood does not affect labor market outcomes of refugee men. Their labor market outcomes are also not affected by the overall employment rate and the overall average skill level in the neighborhood. However, an increase in the average skill level of non-Western immigrant men living in the neighborhood raises their employment probability, while an increase in the employment rate of co-national men living in the neighborhood raises their real annual earnings. This provides quasi-experimental evidence that residence-based job information networks are ethnically stratified.     

Fiscal News, State Budget Rules, and Tax-Exempt Bond Yields

This paper investigates how state fiscal institutions such as balanced-budget rules and restrictions on state debt issuance mediate the bond market reaction to state fiscal news. We analyze data on the yields of bonds issued by different states, as reported in the “Chubb Relative Value Survey,” along with data on state budget forecasts for the period 1988–1998. We find that unexpected deficits are correlated with higher state bond yields. This effect is smaller for states with tight antideficit rules than for states without these fiscal rules. Unexpected deficits have a particularly large effect in raising bond yields of states with tax limits. These results suggest that bond market participants view fiscal institutions as relevant in assessing the risk characteristics of tax-exempt bonds and that the economic significance of these institutions depends on the state's economic and fiscal circumstances.     

The effectiveness of European active labor market programs

Active Labor Market Programs are widely used in European countries, but despite many econometric evaluation studies analyzing particular programs no conclusive cross-country evidence exists regarding “what program works for what target group under what (economic and institutional) circumstances?”. This paper aims at answering this question using a meta-analysis based on a data set that comprises 137 program evaluations from 19 countries. The empirical results of the meta-analysis are surprisingly clear-cut: Rather than contextual factors such as labor market institutions or the business cycle, it is almost exclusively the program type that seems to matter for program effectiveness. While direct employment programs in the public sector frequently appear detrimental, wage subsidies and “Services and Sanctions” can be effective in increasing participants' employment probability. Training programs – the most commonly used type of active policy – show modestly positive effects.     

Spatial mobility and competition for jobs: Some theory and evidence for Western Germany

This paper sheds new light on the role of regional labor market conditions for regional mobility. We study competition for vacant jobs along two dimensions – between employed and unemployed job searchers, and between resident and non-resident job searchers – within a simple matching framework. Evidence from estimating regional matching functions with data on job searchers disaggregated by previous employment status and regional provenance indicates that competition for jobs along both dimensions affects hiring. Tests of the theoretical predictions suggest that labor market conditions do determine regional mobility, but the countervailing effects of competition between employed and unemployed dilute mobility effects.     

An extension of the monocentric urban spatial equilibrium model to a multicenter setting: The case of the two-center city

Firms in a monocentric city conforming in substance to the “new urban economics” produce an export commodity under agglomeration economies and employ homogeneous labor and capital. Workers reside about the CBD in decreasing densities with distance. A developer establishes a second export production center within the city's residential area. Conditions for economic viability and growth of the subcenter are examined, and its impacts on short-run and long-run city location patterns are discussed. A limiting condition on subcenter employment size is provided.     

A Study on the Productivities of IT Capital and Computer Labor: Firm-level Evidence from Taiwan’s Banking Industry

The current paper extends the non-neutral stochastic frontier production function—which belongs to the class of a one-step procedure as defined by Wang and Schmidt (2002) and developed by Huang and Liu (1994)—from a cross-sectional setting to a panel data modeling. Using a newly-surveyed dataset from Taiwan’s commercial banks on their investments in information and communication technologies (IT), I find that IT capital and computer labor tend to exhibit higher productivities than their non-IT and non-computer counterparts, that IT capital has positive impacts on the marginal productivities of computer labor and borrowed funds, and that the mean technical efficiency is around 87.7%. Evidence is found that the total factor productivity of the banking sector grew at an average rate of 0.28% per annum, albeit fluctuating, for the past 8 years.     

Buyer information and the hedonic: The impact of a seller disclosure on the implicit price for airport noise

Revealed preference methods like the hedonic model generally assume economic agents have access to publicly available information and use it effectively. In the housing market, the recent proliferation of seller disclosure laws suggests that policymakers perceive buyers to be less than “fully informed,” presumably since they face higher information acquisition costs than sellers. The introduction of an airport noise disclosure in the residential housing market surrounding the Raleigh–Durham International Airport is used as a quasi-random experiment to analyze the impact of this type of information asymmetry between buyers and sellers on housing prices. The results from a regression analysis that controls for potential spatial and temporal confounders, suggest that the airport noise disclosure reduced the value of houses most heavily impacted by airport noise by 2.9 percent. This represents approximately a 37 percentage point increase in the implicit price of airport noise. The results provide evidence that publicly available information, such as that available for airport noise, may not be adequately considered by all buyers. They also suggest that the information environment should be carefully considered when using housing data and the hedonic model to value urban amenities and disamenities.     

Endogenous labor force participation and firing costs

I construct a matching model to explain the labor market transition between employment, unemployment and nonparticipation, and evaluate the quantitative effects of firing costs. The model has several features that are distinguished from previous studies: endogenous labor force participation, different job-search decisions and imperfect insurance markets. I find that the model is able to account for the U.S. labor market, especially the gross labor-force transition rates. I also find that firing costs as a type of firing tax have a negative effect on the layoff rate, the job-finding probability and the participation rate. In particular, the effect of a decrease in the job-finding probability is greater than the effect of a decrease in the layoff rate, and this results in an increase in the unemployment-to-population ratio. Finally, firing costs make individuals' job tenures longer and skew the asset distribution to the right.     

Flexicurity and job satisfaction in Europe: The importance of perceived and actual job stability for well-being at work

In this paper we study the effect of a micro-level measure of flexicurity on workers' job satisfaction. To this end, using micro-data from the Eurobarometer survey, we disaggregate the sample of workers into different groups according not only to their employment contract (i.e. permanent or temporary), but also to their perceived job security, and we evaluate differences in job satisfaction between these groups. After the potential endogeneity of job type has been controlled for, the results show that what matters for job satisfaction is not just the type of contract, but mainly the perceived job security, which may be independent of the type of contract.The combination “temporary but secure job” seems preferable to the combination “permanent but insecure job”, indicating that the length of the contract may be less important if the worker perceives that s/he is not at risk of becoming unemployed. Our main conclusions are robust to the use of alternative definitions of workers' types and they generally hold within different welfare regimes and also for different aspects of job satisfaction, mainly those more related to job security.