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This paper estimates the importance of shocks to consumer misperceptions “noise shocks” for U.S. business cycle fluctuations. I embed imperfect information as in Lorenzoni (2009) into a Smets and Wouters (2007)-type DSGE model. Agents only observe aggregate productivity and a signal about the permanent component contaminated with noise. Based on this information agents form beliefs about the temporary and the permanent component of productivity. Shocks to the signal (noise shocks) trigger aggregate fluctuations unrelated to changes in productivity. Bayesian estimation shows that noise shocks explain up to 14 percent of output and up to 25 percent of consumption fluctuations. Nominal rigidities and the specification of the monetary policy rule are crucial for the importance of noise shocks. These features help to resolve conflicting results in the previous literature. 相似文献
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Attempts to economize on bargaining costs imply that two parties may write a contract which is incomplete in the sense that each party tacitly cedes some decision rights to the other. If decision makers can be disciplined by the threat of ex post renegotiation of decisions initially delegated to them, contracts may be even more incomplete. In the limit, the parties may leave all nonprice decisions out of the contract. By thus arguing that the threat of renegotiation facilitates contractual incompleteness, the paper reverses the direction of causality stressed by the literature. 相似文献
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House prices and consumer welfare 总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5
We develop a new approach to measuring changes in consumer welfare due to changes in the price of owner-occupied housing. In our approach, an agent's welfare adjustment is defined as the transfer required to keep expected discounted utility constant given a change in current house prices. We demonstrate that, up to a first-order approximation, there is no aggregate change in welfare due to price increases in the existing housing stock. This follows from a simple market clearing condition where capital gains experienced by sellers are exactly offset by welfare losses to buyers. We show that this result holds (approximately) even in a model that accounts for changes in consumption and investment plans prompted by current house price changes. There can, however, be changes in welfare due to additions to the stock of housing, or to changes in the price of renovating and upgrading the existing stock of housing. For the United States, we estimate the welfare cost of house price appreciation to be an average of $127 per household per year over the 1984–1998 period. 相似文献
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在绿色供应链理论的基础上对建筑业的绿色供应链模式进行了研究,分析了承包模式下的建筑绿色供应链,并对其必要性、组成环节以及运行环境进行了讨论. 相似文献
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在绿色供应链理论的基础上对建筑业的绿色供应链模式进行了研究,分析了承包模式下的建筑绿色供应链,并对其必要性、组成环节以及运行环境进行了讨论。 相似文献
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Consider a seller and a buyer who write a contract. After that, the seller produces a good. She can influence the expected quality of the good by making unobservable investments. Only the seller learns the realized quality. Finally, trade can occur. It is always ex post efficient to trade. Yet, it may be impossible to achieve the first best, even though the risk-neutral parties are symmetrically informed at the contracting stage and complete contracts can be written. The second best is characterized by distortions that are reminiscent of adverse selection models (i.e., models with precontractual private information but without hidden actions). 相似文献
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基于交易性质的物流契约结构分析 总被引:1,自引:5,他引:1
从交易性质分析入手,认为交易频率、不确定性和资产专用性是决定物流契约结构的基本因素.大规模物流交易降低了平均成本,物流技术创新降低了不确定性,产权市场降低了物流资产专用性水平,这极大提高了市场组织物流交易的比较优势.国内外实证研究表明,专业化和市场化的物流契约结构有效节约了物流成本,提高了物流组织效率. 相似文献
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《International Journal of Forecasting》2007,23(1):47-69
Business and consumer surveys have become an essential tool for gathering information about different economic variables. While the fast availability of the results and the wide range of variables covered have made them very useful for monitoring the current state of the economy, there is no consensus on their usefulness for forecasting macroeconomic developments.The objective of this paper is to analyse the possibility of improving forecasts for selected macroeconomic variables for the euro area using the information provided by these surveys. After analyzing the potential presence of seasonality and the issue of quantification, we tested whether these indicators provide useful information for improving forecasts of the macroeconomic variables. With this aim, different sets of models have been considered (AR, ARIMA, SETAR, Markov switching regime models and VAR) to obtain forecasts for the selected macroeconomic variables. Then, information from surveys has been considered for forecasting these variables in the context of the following models: autoregressive, VAR, Markov switching regime and leading indicator models. In all cases, the root mean square error (RMSE) has been computed for different forecast horizons.The comparison of the forecasting performance of the two sets of models permits us to conclude that, in most cases, models that include information from the surveys have lower RMSEs than the best model without survey information. However, this reduction is only significant in a limited number of cases. In this sense, the results obtained extend the results of previous research that has included information from business and consumer surveys to explain the behaviour of macroeconomic variables, but are not conclusive about its role. 相似文献
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契约储蓄机构包括养老基金和寿险公司。养老基金和寿险公司的特殊之处在于他们的债务期限为长期结构。这类储蓄机构的投资可以使金融市场上长期资金的供给增加,也由于其投资的长期性,使证券市场的效率、透明度和竞争程度整体上会得到提高,交易成本趋于下降。此外,使银行的行为更加理性化、长期化,从而使得金融市场上的资金需求方企业可以以更低的成本获得更多的长期资金,促进整个金融体系的健康稳定发展。 相似文献
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企业声誉可以直接影响消费者对其企业产品的购买决策和产品忠诚度。因此其受到越来越多企业的重视,文章对企业声誉的构成及应遵守的原则进行了分析。 相似文献
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This paper assesses the impact of perceptions about the safety level of airlines on enplanement. Consumer perceptions are
specified with a Poisson distribution that updates over time. Using two different empirical specifications via a pooled generalized
least squares procedure with fixed effects; we find no statistical evidence of a correlation between the perceived level of
safety and enplanement. However, under an alternative specification in which the severity levels of accidents are ranked,
we find that safety perceptions about accidents with minor injuries have no statistically significant impact on enplanement,
while perceptions about accidents with serious injuries and fatalities lead to cumulative decreases in enplanement. 相似文献
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外商在华出资的动态博弈 总被引:2,自引:1,他引:2
根据2002年统计,合作企业和合资企业当年未按合同出资的分别占56.0%和41.4%,违约行为相当严重。本文对外商在中国的出资行为进行博弈分析,探讨违约原因,反映中方和外方在投资中的相互博弈,以加强对实际投资的科学管理。 相似文献
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通过对相关研究的分析,指出物流企业与员工之间存有心理契约.提出物流企业与员工的心理契约内分为“交易、发展、尊重”三个维度,容通过对北京、上海、天津、广州、重庆、山东等物流企业及员工的问卷调研,证实了提出的各个假设的正确性,同时得出给物流员工提供满足其尊重需求的工作环境、肯定其成绩、充分发挥其才能比物质奖励更加重要.研究结果显示,物流企业责任的三个维度对员工尊重维度发挥正向作用. 相似文献
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财权配置的契约安排是对企业集团初始(财务)契约的不完备性所进行的修正。财权配置的契约结构不仅决定企业集团与市场的边界,也决定企业集团内部代理成本的结构。而代理成本和财务协同效应均衡,可以实现企业集团财权配置契约结构的优化,即财权契约安排的制度净收益最大化。 相似文献