Stochastic Volatility: Likelihood Inference and Comparison with ARCH Models

In this paper, Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling methods are exploited to provide a unified, practical likelihood-based framework for the analysis of stochastic volatility models. A highly effective method is developed that samples all the unobserved volatilities at once using an approximating offset mixture model, followed by an importance reweighting procedure. This approach is compared with several alternative methods using real data. The paper also develops simulation-based methods for filtering, likelihood evaluation and model failure diagnostics. The issue of model choice using non-nested likelihood ratios and Bayes factors is also investigated. These methods are used to compare the fit of stochastic volatility and GARCH models. All the procedures are illustrated in detail.     

Average Derivative Estimation of Hedonic Price Models

Conventional parametric techniques for estimatinghedonic price models require a correct functionalform. In this paper, we side-step this parametricshortcoming by estimating a hedonic price model usingaverage derivative estimation (ADE). Thissemiparametric approach produces robust estimates ofthe marginal effects without assuming a specificfunctional form a priori. In our application ofthe model to a unique data set on Korean home prices,ADE produced estimates consistent with priorexpectations, providing initial evidence that themodel may represent a viable alternative when usingthe hedonic approach.     

Estimating Macroeconomic Models: A Likelihood Approach

This paper shows how particle filtering facilitates likelihood-based inference in dynamic macroeconomic models. The economies can be non-linear and/or non-normal. We describe how to use the output from the particle filter to estimate the structural parameters of the model, those characterizing preferences and technology, and to compare different economies. Both tasks can be implemented from either a classical or a Bayesian perspective. We illustrate the technique by estimating a business cycle model with investment-specific technological change, preference shocks, and stochastic volatility.     

On Efficient Estimation and Correct Inference in Models with Generated Regressors: a General Approach

Two approaches have been developed for deriving the properties of efficiency and consistency of standard errors of two step estimators of linear models containing current or lagged unobserved expectations of a single variable. One method is based on the derivatives of the likelihood function and information matrix, while the other uses the true covariance matrix of the disturbance vector when unknown parameters or variables are replaced by corresponding estimates. In this paper, the second approach is extended to cases where the structural equation is nonlinear and the model contains expectations of more than one variable or expectations of future variables. The properties of a frequently used estimator to deal with missing observations problems, a model involving a variance as an explanatory variable, and a recently developed estimator for autoregressive moving average models can be easily derived using the results of the paper. Methods for improving the efficiency of two step estimators are outlined.
JEL Classification Number: C13     

养老保险企业缴费对员工工资、就业的影响分析

本文通过全国名地/市养老保险企业缴费比率随时间的外生变动趋势来识别养老保险缴费对企业的影响。研究得出,在控制样本选择后养老保险企业缴费比例每增加1个百分点,企业将挤出员工工资的0.6%,减少员工福利的0.6%,社会养老保险未使得企业在职工工资与福利之间转换。对员工工资与福利的加总量,养老保险企业缴费比例每增加1个百分点,将使其减少0.7%。对企业雇用人数,养老保险企业缴费比例每增加1个百分点,企业雇用人数将减少0.8%。对不同类型的企业,养老保险的影响存在差异。对低技术水平企业,养老保险企业缴费比例上涨的挤出效应较弱。     

最低工资对中国就业和工资水平的影响

本文以1998—2007年全国各市(地区、自治州、盟)最低工资标准随时间变化的外生差异来识别最低工资上涨与企业平均工资、企业雇佣人数的关系。利用1998—2007年规模以上制造业企业报表数据进行的分析显示,最低工资每上涨10%,制造业企业平均工资将整体上涨0.4%—0.5%。借助2006—2007年福建省最低工资上涨的"准自然实验"本文也证实了该结论。对于不同行业、不同人均资本水平的企业,最低工资上涨的影响也存在异质性。最低工资将更多地增加劳动密集型或人均资本较低企业的平均工资。研究还发现,最低工资每增加10%,制造业企业雇佣人数将显著减少0.6%左右。政府在制定最低工资时应权衡其在收入分配上的积极效果以及其对就业的负面影响。     

个人所得税对公司加权平均资金成本的影响

本文利用Dempsey的包含个人所得税的股票价值模型建立了包含个人所得税的公司平均资金成本模型,研究个人所得税对公司资本结构和资金成本的影响.本文还根据中国的实际,研究中国现行的所得税制度对公司资金成本和资本结构的影响.     

Finite Sample Limited Information Inference Methods for Structural Equations and Models With Generated Regressors

We propose exact tests and confidence sets for various structural models typically estimated by IV methods, such as models with unobserved regressors, which remain valid despite the presence of identification problems or weak instruments. Two approaches are considered: (1) an instrument substitution method, which generalizes the Anderson–Rubin procedure, and (2) a sample‐split method, that allows the use of “generated regressors.” Projection techniques are also proposed for inference on general parameter transformations. The asymptotic theory of the tests under weaker assumptions is discussed. Simulation results are presented. The suggested techniques are applied to a model of Tobin's q and to a model of academic performance.     

企业衍生效应对创新网络演化的作用机理研究

由创新网络和企业衍生概念入手,将衍生效应分解为知识溢出、集群创新文化和竞争关系3个维度,将集群创新网络分解为 “质”、“量”两个维度,以北京、大连、济南、天津高技术产业集群的衍生企业为对象,实证研究企业衍生效应对集群创新网络的影响。结果显示,企业衍生效应对集群创新网络演化存在正向促进作用。其中,知识溢出、集群创新文化与创新网络的“质”维度存在显著正相关关系,知识溢出、集群创新文化和适度竞争关系与创新网络的“量”维度存在显著正相关关系。     

Innis Lecture: Inference on income distributions

Abstract This paper attempts to provide a synthetic view of varied techniques available for performing inference on income distributions. Two main approaches can be distinguished: one in which the object of interest is some index of income inequality or poverty, the other based on notions of stochastic dominance. From the statistical point of view, many techniques are common to both approaches, although of course some are specific to one of them. I assume throughout that inference about population quantities is to be based on a sample or samples, and, formally, all randomness is due to that of the sampling process. Inference can be either asymptotic or bootstrap based. In principle, the bootstrap is an ideal tool, since in this paper I ignore issues of complex sampling schemes and suppose that observations are IID. However, both bootstrap inference and, to a considerably greater extent, asymptotic inference can fall foul of difficulties associated with the heavy right‐hand tails observed with many income distributions. I mention some recent attempts to circumvent these difficulties.     

中国城市化对农村居民平均消费倾向影响的收入效应与示范效应:2000年～2009年

笔者运用2000年～ 2009年的省际面板数据,采用固定效应模型,对城市化与农村消费的关系进行深入考察;通过收入结构与消费结构分解,对城市化进程中的收入效应及示范效应进行衡量.结果表明,城市化进程确实对农村消费水平具有显著的提升作用,并且在欠发达的西部地区,提升效应更明显;城市化对农村消费的收入效应主要通过工资收入渠道起作用;城市化进程中的示范效应主要通过非刚性消费品拉动农村消费增长.最后,笔者从实证结果出发,提出促进农村平均消费水平上升的城市化渠道的深层次含义,并提出相关政策建议.     

所得税对金融衍生工具的影响分析

金融衍生工具给予了投资者在传统交易和合成工具中选择的权利,其注重投资回报和分解风险的性质,使投资者对所得课税变化十分敏感.尽管很难通过实证分析来证明运用金融衍生工具是出于税收激励的考虑,但公司在运用金融衍生工具进行风险管理时,考虑税收利益是必然的,同时也可能存在因金融衍生工具所得税制不完善而运用衍生工具规避应纳税额的情形.另外,由于各国对金融衍生工具采取不同的所得课税办法,这将在经济上产生可比利益,对投资者的投资行为选择和追求税收套利具有一定的影响.     

Semiparametric and nonparametric testing for long memory: A Monte Carlo study

The finite sample properties of three semiparametric estimators, several versions of the modified rescaled range, MRR, and three versions of the GHURST estimator are investigated. Their power and size for testing for long memory under short-run effects, joint short and long-run effects, heteroscedasticity andt-distributions are given using Monte Carlo methods. The MRR with the Bartlett window is generally robust with the disadvantage of a relatively small power. The trimmed Whittle likelihood has high power in general and is robust except for large short-run effects. The tests are applied to changes in exchange rate series (daily data) of 6 major countries. The hypothesis of no fractional integration is rejected for none of the series.     

制造企业服务衍生:理论综述和研究展望

结合中国制造业的现状,提出了适合中国制造企业情境的服务型制造转型方法——服务衍生,揭示了制造企业服务衍生的原因,提出了服务衍生的概念及其特征,总结了制造企业服务衍生的相关理论,研究了制造企业服务衍生的实现过程,分析了其实现过程中的关键技术,并提出了未来值得研究的若干议题。     

平均相关系数与系统性风险：来自中国市场的证据

本文研究了平均相关系数与系统性风险的关系,拓展了Pollet and Wilson(2010)的模型,找到了资产预期收益率与股票、债券平均相关系数的关系,更好地解决了系统性风险的度量问题。实证中,我们首先发现股票与债券市场的平均相关系数反映了系统性风险,而股票市场的波动并不能反映系统性风险;其次,股票投资者是风险偏好,但债券市场的投资者是风险厌恶的;最后,股票与债券的市场间相关系数未被定价,二者还具有较大的独立性。     

衍生金融工具的会计确认与计量研究

衍生金融工具的确认与计量给传统会计理论带来了巨大的冲击。为此，SFAS133和IAS39对衍生金融工具会计处理做了相关规定，将衍生金融工具从表外披露转为表内确认，并采用了公允价值的计量模式。就我国而言，对衍生金融工具的确认和计量，应从实际出发，分为目前、近期和远期三个阶段进行处理。     

基于权变和效益的多种管理方法在企业中的运用

企业管理实践的复杂性要求管理者学习和掌握多种管理思想,具备多样性的管理技能。本文依据基本的管理学原理以及通过对经典管理观点的分析,注重权变和效益,对一些看似存在冲突,但在处理不同的事务时却具有独特效应的管理方法进行探讨,分析这些管理方法在企业管理中的应用和效果。