Strategic Asset Allocation for China＇s Foreign Reserves： A Copula Approach

In this paper, we study strategic asset allocation for China＇s foreign reserves using a risk- based approach. Four aspects of the risk management are investigated： an investment universe, dependence structure, allocation strategies under risk minimization and trade-off between risks and returns. A regime-switching copula model is developed to investigate the dynamic dependence between assets. One regime emphasizes a short-term safe asset and the other regime emphasizes a long-term safe asset. The optimal allocation is derived following two strategies： risk minimization and trade-off between risks and returns in utility maximization with disappointment avoidance, lf the central bank focuses solely on risk minimization, the asymmetries in the asset return dependence encourage the flight to safety. However, if higher risks are allowed in exchange for higher returns, even the exchange is very conservative, and the asymmetries would discourage the flight to safety. Therefore, we suggest that China should mitigate its flight to safety after 2008 and increase holdings of short-term bank deposits, long-term treasury bonds and euro bonds.     

Construction of Risk Management System in Chinese Commercial Bank

Risk management is a system which involves the sequence of ex ante precaution, on-going control, ex post compensation and perfect corporate governance. In this paper, through analyzing the development of the international bank risk management, points of view are be proposed that precaution is the condition of risk management, control and compensation aim to reduce the loss to the lowest limit if it＇s inevitable, and a perfect corporate governance structure is guaranteed.     

The necessity and countermeasures of developing China＇s Land Bank Investment Trusts

The problem of Land Bank financing channels＇ being single has become the obstacle that restricts the development of China＇s land bank financing market. In this paper, we discussed the necessity of developing Land Bank Investment Trusts, and considering at presented, the obstacles and countermeasures of the development of China＇s Land Bank Investment Trusts.     

Restriction of cost of capital＇s property right and financing preference of listed companies

Opposite to the financing preference of creditor＇s rights in western firms, Chinese listed companies obviously have the financing preference of shareholding. This paper uses the theory of property for reference, and redefines the concept of cost of capital in a higher level, and considers it as the property of investors. Through a mathematics model, the author analyzes that how restriction of cost of capital＇s property right makes influence on the financing preference of firms, and considers that it is the restriction of cost or the imperfect cost of capital＇s property right that influences the financing cost of shareholding and creditor＇s rights, hence, determining the financing preference of listed companies. In other words, it is the restriction of cost of capital＇s property right that causes the financing preference of creditor＇s rights in western firms, and the imperfect cost of capital＇s property right is the reason for the financing preference of shareholding of Chinese listed companies.     

Research on the risk of the collateral in Chinese commercial banks

Credit risk mitigation is an efficient bank＇s credit management instrument, there is some barriers in using collateral ＆ guarantees in China. The article analyzes the operational risks from bank governance and legal environment aspects. Then, the paper puts forward some suggestions.     

Study on Real Estate Investment Trusts and application in China

The Real Estate Investment Trusts （REITs） is a mature investment and financing tool in the real estate market abroad. RE1Ts is able to deploy resource, circulate necessary funds and disperse risk effectively. It is the feasible effective way and necessary choice during the real estate finance innovation. But there is a big gap between RE1Ts in China and the mature RE1Ts abroad. Because RE1Ts in China puts more attention on the financing function of the real estate. Besides, because the relevance law and the market environment are not perfect, REITs couldn＇t exploit its advantages very well in China. It needs to be developed in the practice. This paper starts with introducing the concept of REITs. Then the paper goes on to tell the types and characteristics of REITs aboard. It continues to study the experience of mature RE1Ts in the market and finds out disadvantages which China＇s RE1Ts have. Based on above research, the paper considers about the situation in China and states the mode of RE1Ts we should choose in China. At the same time, the paper points out the important problems we should deal with when we develop REITs in China.     

How Good Is Corporate Governance in China？

Based on the revised OECD Principles of Corporate Governance of 2004 and China＇s regulatory framework, we develop a corporate governance index （ CGI） to measure overall corporate governance and disclosure practices of the 100 largest listed companies in China. The results show that Chinese companies have been making progress in corporate governance reform and there is significant difference in CGI between the top and the bottom companies＇ performance. Among the six parts of CGl, Chinese listed companies perform better in disclosure and transparency, but show weakness in board of supervisor and stakeholders roles. Further tests show that the improvements in corporate governance of state-owned enterprises have resulted in some initial signs of success.     

A Comparative Study of Financing Structure of China Mainland and Taiwan Based on the Life Cycle of High-tech Enterprises

High-tech enterprises not only bear such characteristics as high investment and high risk, but also require a long growth cycle which is clearly divided into several stages. These characteristics have great influence upon the enterprise＇s financing structure. Therefore, exploration of the financing structure at different stages of high-tech enterprise life cycle and study of the structure diversity under different financing environment are undoubtedly significant to the establishment of reasonable financing structure and financing strategy. Taking high-tech enterprises of China Mainland and Taiwan as study subject and adopting the methods of comparative study and positive analysis, this paper divides the enterprise life cycle into three stages by using relevant financial indexes. On the basis of the financing structure indexes, the paper makes a comparative analysis of the financing structure at enterprise＇s different stages of both banks of straits, and analyzes the causes of the differences. The findings of the analysis shed new light on improving the financing structure of Chinese high-tech enterprises.     

Prediction of Labor Force＇s Supply and Demand in Urban Areas of China

In the recent years, with the promotion of reform and the exposing of some profound contradictions, the problem of unemployment is outstanding day by day and becomes an important problem in present China＇s economics. Based on the data offered by China Statistical Yearbook： 2003, the short-term supply and demand of labor force in urban areas of China is predicted in this paper.     

英文文摘

Economists talk about China＇s future
He Qiang, professor of Central University of Finance and Economics, believes that economic indicators will be from high to low in short-term and that is normal. And he advises that China＇s policy maintains stability in the last few months, the government shouldn＇t change its policy accroding to a temporary quarter fluctuations. He said, the stability development of following two years is important to the future.     

Empirical Investigation on China＇s Private Enterprises Performance Change Before and After Listing

This paper evaluates the performance change of the private enterprises listed on China＇s two exchanges during 2 years before and after listing in the period of 1996-2001. It is concluded that earning ability, real sales and financing are significantly improved, while only profitability decline a little bit after the private firms listed. In addition, we find that IPO private firms have appreciably better performance than that of BS ones as well as the financing condition becomes finer, which is relative to both the attributes of the private enterprises and Chinese regulatory rules. Therefore, we figured out that the outcome of private firms listing is positive, and China＇s economic reform will be a step-by-step process.     

Substance vs. Form in Shareholder Financing： How Does This Affect the Corporate Interest？

This article analyzes the ＂substance versus form＂ contrast in the context of shareholders＇ financing, exploring how it simultaneously affects both the corporate creditors＇ protections and the long-term growth of the company. In particular, the paper describes the role of shareholders＇ financing in the corporation capitalization and its qualification under the current ＂substance versus form＂ debate; then it illustrates the substantial approach commonly taken by the case law and explores the effects of the above mentioned debate on the corporate creditors＇ protections; finally, the paper examines the impact of this practice on the governance side. This article argues that,     

An empirical analysis of the growth of it enterprises in China

The paper makes an empirical analysis to the main factors effecting IT corporate growth-human resource and R＆D. By using data of China＇s listed IT companies, we focus on the relationship among corporate value （net return of equity, ROE） or development of corporate value （Tobin＇s Q） and manager＇s salary, R＆D fee, R＆D employee, etc. The conclusion shows that development of corporate value （Tobin＇s Q） has positive correlativity with the plurality of board chairman and general manager, independent directors＇ proportion, R＆D fee, and R＆D employees while it is non-obvious positive with salary of superior managers, holding stocks of general manager, capital investment, and negative with corporate scale. The conclusion is accordant with the development status of Chinese IT corporation.     

Global and Euro Imbalances： China and Germany

We analyze global and euro area imbalances by focusing on China and Germany as large surplus and creditor countries. In the 2000s, domestic reforms expanded the effective labor force, restrained wages, shifted income toward profits and increased corporate saving. As a result, the Chinese and German current account surpluses widened, and that of Germany has proven more persistent, with subdued domestic investment. China is an early-stage creditor, holding a short equity position and a longposition in safe debt. Germany＇s balanced net debt and equity claims mark it as a mature creditor thatprovides insurance to the rest of the world. China pays to lay off equity risk, while Germany, by contrast, harvests a moderate yield on its net claims. In both economies, the shortfall of the net international investment position from cumulated current account surpluses arises from exchange rate changes, asymmetric valuation gains, and, in Germany＇s case, credit losses.     

Linkage between stock volatility and corporate bond yield spread in Thailand

This paper studies the relationship between stock volatility and corporate bond yield spread in Thai market by using Campbell and Taksler （2003） panel data regression approach. The results show that the equity volatility＇s variables, such as finn＇s idiosyncratic risk, market risk, individual stock return and market return, are matter to explain the corporate bond yield spread. Surprisingly, these variables could explain the spread better than credit rating variables. Furthermore, during bear market period, only corporate bond yield spreads in financial finns are increasing significantly. Some of the deterministic yield spread parameters such as level and slope of interest rate also alter from bull market period.     

Comment from the Editor-in-chief

Ronald McKinnon is one of the most respected foreign economists in China and his view on exchange rate policy is well known and very influential in China. His and Gunther Schnabl＇s paper China＇s Exchange Rate and Financial Repression： The Conflicted Emergence of the Renminbi as an International Currency is one of the most serious and comprehensive studies of China＇s exchange rate policy and capital account policy in recent years.     

Who is Going to Supply the Milk to China＇s South？

China＇s dairy industry has experienced rapid expansion in recent years, with an average annual growth rate of 23.8 percent from 2000 to 2006. However, there exists a serious geographical distribution imbalance in milk production and consumption. Approximately 85 percent of China＇s milk is produced in northern China, where 40 percent of the country＇s population reside. In contrast, only about 15 percent of the milk is produced in China＇s south, where 60percent of China＇s population reside. This has resulted in a significant gap between milk production and consumption in southern China and this gap is expected to rise. This paper considers China＇s milk demand and supply situation, analyzes the likely potential for China to expand its milk production and explores options for meeting milk demand-supply shortages. Policy and trade implications are discussed.     

Financial Imbalance Index as a New Early Warning Indicator： Methods and Applications in the Chinese Economy

Based on the stylized facts of financial crises and systemic risk accumulation, this paper constructs a new financial imbalance index （FII） from the perspective of endogenous financial cycles and assesses its application in China＇s macro-financial analysis. The results show that the FII is not only an effective index to detect financial imbalances in China＇s economic cycles, but is also more accurate than and plays more of a leading role than conventional indicators, such as the consumer price index, the financial conditions index and the purchasing managers indicator. Empirical analysis shows that the FII can be used as an effective indicator to measure systemic financial risk, and can provide policy-makers and market participants with useful information to make appropriate decisions.     

Countermeasures to Solve Default Payment in Construction Field of China

This paper first points out the basic characteristics of default payment in construction field at present, then puts forward detailed countermeasures from five aspects, which consist of speeding up to establish the social credit system, strengthening market management and supervision, establishing construction risk management system, reforming investment and financing system of government＇s projects and broadening financing channels of real estate development projects.     

Finding Operational Risk in Credit Loans Risk

Aiming at the phenomenon of mixing the operational risk into credit risk in credit loan, this paper advances that the manager＇s behavior will affect the credit loan risk. The paper testifies the effect of managers＇ behavior on the risk size, interest and collateral in credit loans, thus documenting that there is operational risk in credit loan. In the last part, the paper advances that the key of resolving the problem of operational risk in credit loans is improving the governance of the banks and monitoring the managers of the banks, and the emphases of managing operational risk in credit loans should be put on improving the internal control system of the banks.