MACROECONOMETRIC MODEL EVALUATION,WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO THE NIF88 MODEL*

This paper has argued that a mixture of procedures is required for the evaluation of a macroeconomic model. Both individual equations and overall model properties are involved, while both formal tests and an informal understanding of the model are needed. The procedures advocated reflect the need for evaluation to be informative and manageable. The bulk of the statistical testing is best conducted at the single equation stage. Evaluation of single equations involves:

• (i) employing a battery of diagnostic tests;
• (ii) specification and stability tests should be designed, where possible, to enhance the power of the test conducted, including by making use of external information;
• (iii) procedures designed to detect influence of particular observations can provide
• (iv) comparison with other information, both from other empirical investigations and from theoretical priors, is necessary to ensure sound results.

     

全球鞋业转移背景下我国制鞋业的地方集群升级--以温州鞋业集群为例

首先分析了制鞋业的国际竞争态势,回顾了鞋业制造业的国际空间转移现象,由此引发出关于鞋业集群升级问题的探讨。指出在集群升级问题上,本地企业的互动及外部联系是共存的。由于全球性的零售商、品牌公司在全球生产和分销中的地位日益突出,本地公司与跨国公司的外部联系十分重要,但是,进入全球价值链并不是说可以忽略本地企业之间的互动。本地企业之间、当地政府及机构与本地企业之间的互动对本地产业集群的升级也是必不可少的。最后围绕鞋业集群的升级问题,分析了温州鞋业集群的竞争优势、空间分布以及面临的困境,并提出了相应的政策建议。     

论入世后中国保税区面临的机遇和发展对策

扼要论述了中国保税区成立以来的主要经济成就和经济发展优势;分析了入世后中国保税区面临的新的挑战和机遇;提出了中国保税区尽快融入世界经济大潮的主要对策。     

ADJUSTING NET WORTH FOR PRICE CHANGES WITH REFERENCE TO THE CANADIAN SYSTEM OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS

This paper develops a rationale for a comprehensive measure of income and provides illustrative calculations within the Canadian System of National Accounts for making adjustments to net worth for price changes.
The paper notes that the System of National Accounts is designed to provide a number of individual aggregates measuring total production, income, savings and net worth. There is no single overall comprehensive measure which reflects the combined effect of changes in income and wealth. Such a measure is of particular importance in periods of rapid or extensive price changes which affect not only purchasing power of income but also the value of assets held and liabilities outstanding with consequences on net worth positions. This paper explores these issues and develops techniques for measuring the effects of specific and overall price changes with respect to net worth of the various sectors in the economy, illustrated with data from the integrated Canadian System of National Accounts.     

喀斯特峡谷区民族心理意识的模糊综合评价--以贵州花江峡谷地区为例

采用实地抽样调查数据,从地理学、心理学、行为科学的角度,运用模糊数学上的综合评价方法,将喀斯特环境与贵州西南花江喀斯特峡谷地区当地居民的心理意识及行为作为一个相互作用的系统来认识人地相互关系,将喀斯特石山区生态环境、社会经济条件的特殊性与心理意识相结合并进行数理分析、相关对比和模糊综合评价的整体性进行综合定性与定量研究,从人的数量,更重要的是从人的质量(素质)和行为效应与预测的角度,揭示了喀斯特地区民族心理意识与人地关系的基本特征。     

德国煤矿区景观生态重建/土地复垦及对中国的启示

采矿业对矿区环境的破坏是不可否认的，但并不意味送这是对生态永久的破坏。德国的成功经验证明，通过合理的整治和复垦规划，这种损害是可以恢复的。文章对德国矿区景观生态重建／土地复垦的历史变迁、实施手段、理论研究等方面作了较为系统的分析，并对中国进行矿区景观生态重建时应注意的问题进行了探讨，认为：进一步健全法制、明确职责、建立健全规划体系，加强公众参与并树立可持续发展的思想是中国矿区生态重建应遵循的基本原则。     

CONCEPT AND DEFINITION OF INCOME IN THE NATIONAL ACCOUNTS

It is a truism that the national accounts have engendered their own concept of income which is different from other contexts such as business accounting, taxation or welfare analysis. Less known are the principles on which this income concept is based. This article is an attempt to specify such principles, investigating in particular the role of the transaction principle, and to derive an income concept therefrom. The crucial point of the argument is whether or not it is appropriate within the system of the national accounts to assign an income to sectors other than the households. The theory is applied to some practical questions which have been discussed in the process of the revision of the SNA.     

遗产概念的发展与当代世界和中国的遗产保护体系

遗产保护目前已经引起世界性的重视,遗产概念也在不断发展和深化。从横向来说,遗产可以分为自然遗产、(物质性)文化遗产和非物质文化遗产3类,且从仅保护单一要素遗产向同时注重保护多要素集成遗产,从仅保护有形的、可触摸的、物质形态的自然和文化遗产发展到对无形的、不可触摸的所谓非物质类文化遗产和文化景观、历史环境等的保护;从纵向而言,则依次还可区分出社区的、国家的乃至世界的遗产,并以社区层面的遗产最为脆弱,最易忽视和破坏。在此基础上,文章介绍了目前世界上遗产保护的整体框架,对中国当代的遗产保护体系进行了归纳和说明,并就如何真正落实遗产保护提出一些思考。     

杭州湾建桥后沪甬两港竞争力变化分析

根据杭州湾大桥通车后苏浙沪相关城市之间交通运输费用的变化以及沪甬港口腹地进出口状况,运用概率交通量分配模型,估算大桥通车前后相关腹地城市至上海和宁波两港进出口货物数量和比重的变化,综合考虑货物始发地至海外目的地之间全程广义运输成本,得出沪甬两港竞争力指数的相对变化以及相应结论建议.