Fiscal shocks, output dynamics and macroeconomic stability: an empirical assessment for Austria (1983–2002)

We investigate the dynamic effects of discretionary fiscal policy in Austria over the period 1983:1 to 2002:4. A structural vector autoregressive (VAR) analysis, using the identification strategy suggested by Blanchard and Perotti (2002, Q J Econ 117(4):1329–1368), suggests that tax shocks have a negative effect on output, consumption, and investment. Spending shocks have a positive effect but are crowded out to a large extent after a few years. We then estimate ARCH models for output growth and inflation with the fiscal shocks included as explanatory variable in the variance equation. In line with recent cross-country studies there is evidence for a destabilizing role of discretionary fiscal policy.     

Optimal pricing of a two-sided monopoly platform with a one-sided congestion effect

This paper studies the optimal pricing of a two-sided monopoly platform when one side is affected by congestion. We show that the divide-and-conquer pricing strategy (or skewed pricing) depends not only on the relative magnitude of the sides’ price elasticities of demand but it also depends on the marginal congestion cost that an agent imposes on the others. Compared with the no-congestion case, this pricing strategy gives rise to some interesting features that violate the results of Rochet and Tirole (J Eur Econ Assoc 1:990–1029 in 2003, Rand J Econ 37:645–667 in 2006). In the case of equal price elasticities of demand, the no-congested side is charged the highest price. On the other hand, in the case of different price elasticities, the platform congestion pricing depends on a certain threshold of the marginal congestion cost. We show, under some conditions, that the divide-and-conquer pricing strategy is reversed. In the social context, the Rochet and Tirole’s (J Eur Econ Assoc 1:990–1029 in 2003) cost allocation condition is modified by the congestion cost. We show that the congestion does not only affect the buyers’ contribution to the sellers’ surplus, but it also affects the sellers’ contribution to the buyers’.     

Asymmetries in bid and ask responses to innovations in the trading process

This paper proposes a new approach to jointly model the trading process and the revisions of market quotes. This method accommodates asymmetries in the dynamics of ask and bid quotes after trade-related shocks. The empirical specification is a vector error correction (VEC) model for ask and bid quotes, with the spread as the co-integrating vector, and with an endogenous trading process. This model extends the vector autoregressive (VAR) model introduced by Hasbrouck (Hasbrouck J (1991) Measuring the information content of stock trades. J Finance 46:179–207). We provide evidence against several symmetry assumptions, very familiar among microstructure models. We report asymmetric adjustments of ask and bid prices to trade-related shocks, and asymmetric impacts of buyer and seller-initiated trades. In general, buys are more informative than sells. The likelihood of symmetric quote responses increases with volatility. We show that our findings are robust across different model specifications, time frequencies, and trading periods. Moreover, we find similar asymmetries in markets with different microstructures.

Uniqueness of asset prices in an exchange economy with unbounded utility

Summary. This paper studies conditions under which the price of an asset is uniquely determined by its fundamental value – i.e., no bubbles can arise – in Lucas-type asset pricing models with unbounded utility. After discussing Gilles and LeRoy's (1992) example, we construct an example of a two-period, representative agent economy to demonstrate that bubbles can arise in a standard model if utility is unbounded below, in which case the stochastic Euler equation may be violated. In an infinite horizon framework, we show that bubbles cannot arise if the optimal sequence of asset holdings can be lowered uniformly without incurring an infinite utility loss. Using this result, we develop conditions for the nonexistence of bubbles. The conditions depend exclusively on the asymptotic behavior of marginal utility at zero and infinity. They are satisfied by many unbounded utility functions, including the entire CRRA (constant relative risk aversion) class. The Appendix provides a complete market version of our two-period example. Received: January 22, 1996; revised version: February 18, 1997     

Conditional value-at-risk: Aspects of modeling and estimation

This paper considers flexible conditional (regression) measures of market risk. Value-at-Risk modeling is cast in terms of the quantile regression function – the inverse of the conditional distribution function. A basic specification analysis relates its functional forms to the benchmark models of returns and asset pricing. We stress important aspects of measuring the extremal and intermediate conditional risk. An empirical application characterizes the key economic determinants of various levels of conditional risk. Received: September 30, 1999/Revised version: November 20, 2000     

Financial distress of companies in Poland

The study examines main determinants of financial distress of companies in Poland during the recent transformation period. Data compose a sample of 1995–97 annual financial statements of 200 unlisted companies in Poland. Degree of financial distress is expressed either by the binomial variable or by the trinomial ordered variable. The attempted models (binomial and trinomial logit) explain the distress variable for 1997 by the financial indicators evaluated on the basis of financial statements from previous years. The results are sensitive to the choice of explanatory variables in the models. The forecast accuracy of the estimated models lies in the range of 80–90 percent. In the second half of the 1990's, the financial condition of companies in Poland was determined by the degree of liquidity, profitability, and the financial leverage variables.     

New approach to estimating the cost of common equity capital for public utilities

The regulatory process for setting public utilities’ allowed rate of return on common equity has generally used the Gordon DCF, CAPM and Risk Premium specifications to estimate the cost of common equity. Despite the widely known problems with these models, there has been little movement to adopt more recently developed asset pricing models to provide additional evidence for estimating the cost of capital. This paper presents, validates empirically and applies a general yet simple consumption-based asset pricing specification to model the risk-return relationship for stocks and estimate the cost of common equity for public utilities. The model is not necessarily superior to other models in its practical results, yet these results do indicate that it should be used to provide additional estimates of the cost of common equity. Additionally, the model raises doubts as to whether assets such as utility stocks are a consumption (business cycle) hedge.     

Hold-up and externality: the firm as a nexus of incomplete rights?

The Coasean theory of the firm (Coase in Economica 4:386–405, 1937) has flourished with the theory of incomplete contracts. Transaction costs in the form of enforcement costs have been deemed to be the main determinants of the decision to ‘make’ versus ‘buy’. Surprisingly, this stream of literature has almost neglected that transaction costs may also generate incomplete property rights (Coase in J Law Econ 3:1–44, 1960). As firm’s activities entail both contractual and property rights, these two domains interfere each other on the decision to carry out a transaction within the firm. When property rights are incomplete, potential externalities may increase the cost of using the price mechanism to procure the assets needed in a given transaction. The resulting ‘Coasean firm’ would not only centralize incomplete contracts under a unified governance system, but it will also aggregate incomplete property rights under a unified ownership structure.     

Conditional correlations in the returns on oil companies stock prices and their determinants

The identification of the forces that drive stock returns and the dynamics of their associated volatilities is a major concern in empirical economics and finance. This analysis is extremely important for determining optimal hedging strategies. This paper investigates the stock prices’ returns and their financial risk factors for several integrated oil companies, namely Bp (BP), Chevron-Texaco (CVX), Eni (ENI), Exxon-Mobil (XOM), Royal Dutch (RD) and Total-Fina Elf (TFE). We measure the actual co-risk in stock returns and their determinants “within” and “between” the different oil companies, using multivariate cointegration techniques in modelling the conditional mean, as well as multivariate GARCH models for the conditional variances. The distinguishing features of this paper are: (i) focus on the determinants of the market value of each company using the cointegrated VAR/VECM methodology; (ii) specification of the conditional variances of VECM residuals with the Constant Conditional Correlation (CCC) multivariate GARCH model of Bollerslev [(1990) Review of Economics and Statistics 72:498–505] and the Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) multivariate GARCH model of Engle [(2002) Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 20:339–350]; (iii) discussion of the performance of optimal hedge ratios calculated with the DCC estimates. The “within” and “between” DCC indicate time-varying interdependence between stock return volatilities and their determinants. Moreover, DCC models are shown to produce more accurate hedging strategies.     

Effects of electronic trading on the Hang Seng Index futures market

This investigation of the switch from open-outcry trading to electronic trading on the Hang Seng Index (HSI) futures contract reveals that the bid–ask spread narrows and the futures price plays more of a role in information transmission. Factors, such as anonymity in trading and fast order execution in electronic trading, attract informed traders to the futures market, enhancing the information flow. Our results provide support for the worldwide trend of transforming open-outcry markets into electronic trading platforms.     

An analysis of the consumption risk and asset returns of Chinese residents

The research on the consumption-based asset pricing theory is limited to the developed capital markets. This paper seeks to extend the research to the Chinese developing capital market. It analyzes the dynamic relationship between the Chinese residents’ consumption, stock market returns and interest rates with the CCAPM. According to the analyses of this paper, the IV regression results are mixed. However, the data can fit the model relatively well, and the empirical results fail to reject the model. Thus, the results show that a relationship between the Chinese residents’ consumption growth rates and the asset returns does indeed exist, and that the consumption volatility risk could influence the asset returns.     

公平相容约束与集体行动

This paper extends the work of Zhu Xianchen and Li Yulian (2007) by introducing the fairness compatibility constraint. Our work strengthens the explanatory power of their model. Whether a collective action can be realized depends not only on the organizer and followers’ individual rationality constraints, but also on their fairness compatibility constraints. Collective actions that meet the organizer’s individual rationality constraint but do not meet his fairness compatibility constraints cannot be realized. Furthermore, free-riders play a destructive role, which should not be ignored. Translated and revised from Jingjixue Jikan 经济学 (季刊) (China Economic (Quarterly)), 2007, 6(2): 597–606     

宏观经济状态对资产定价因子的影响

为刻画资产定价因子随宏观经济状态时变性,本文通过经济增长和通货膨胀两个指标定义经济状态,建立宏观经济状态下的条件资产定价模型。研究发现在中国资本市场上此模型能够显著改进CAPM模型的效力,其定价效力甚至优于多因子模型。进一步研究表明,宏观经济通过两个维度影响资产价格：第一,多数资产在衰退时期对市场风险更敏感,其代表市场因子的贝塔系数大于复苏与过热阶段;第二,小市值公司的贝塔系数均值及波动性大于大公司,在经济衰退时承担更高的风险收益。     

The effect of environmental and social performance on the stock performance of european corporations

This paper examines the effect of sustainability performance of European corporations on their stock performance, measured as the average monthly stock return from 1996 to 2001. The econometric analysis is based on common empirical asset pricing models, particularly on the multifactor model according to Fama and French (1993, Journal of Financial Economics, 33:3–56). The consideration of sustainability performance is two-fold: The average sustainability performance of the industry in which a corporation operates and the relative sustainability performance of a corporation within a given industry. The main result is that the average environmental performance of the industry has a significantly positive influence on the stock performance. In contrast, the average social performance of the industry has a significantly negative influence. The variables of the relative environmental or social performance of a corporation within a given industry have no significant effect on the stock performance. As a by-product, the econometric analysis implies that some results of Fama and French (1993, 1996, The Journal of Finance, LI (1):55–84) regarding the risk factors of the multifactor model need not hold true for different observation periods, for different stock markets, and for the use of single stocks (instead of portfolios). An erratum to this article can be found at     

The New Keynesian Phillips curve in Europe: does it fit or does it fail?

The canonical New Keynesian Phillips curve specifies inflation as the present-value of future real marginal costs. This paper exploits projections of future real marginal costs generated by VAR models to assess the model’s ability to match the behavior of actual inflation in the Euro area. The model fits the data well at first sight. A set of bias-corrected bootstrapped confidence bands, however, reveals that this result is consistent with both a well fitting and a failing model. These findings also hold for the hybrid version of the Phillips curve.     

中国货币政策的二元传导机制——"两中介目标、两调控对象"模式研究

The research, using VAR model and economic and financial data starting from January 1998 and expiring by June 2006, by econometric methods and theoretical analysis, examines the intermediate target and transmission channel of China’s monetary policy. The results are as followings: (1) Monetary supply M2 is a good indicator for China’s monetary policy, its prediction ability to economic variables is far above other monetary variables; (2) M2 is China’s monetary intermediate target because M2 reacts systematically to the industrial added value and CPI, and M2 innovation is made by the People’s Bank of China (PBC); (3) Monetary transmission channel does not exist in China basically, the main transmission channel is bank loans, credit quota is a de facto intermediate target, which regulates macroeconomy directly and induces the changes in M2, so there are two intermediate targets—credit quota and M2, which is fundamentally the same as the situation before 1998; (4) The two intermediate targets function in different fields—credit quota for real economy and M2 for the financial market, which is a realistic choice and PBC has successfully coordinated them. These conclusions are meaningful for the practices of China’s monetary policy, which indicates that we should pay more attention to the credit quota and take it as the core variable to regulate macroeconomy. Of course, this monetary transmission mode is only effective temporarily because there are many limitations in it. In the future, it is necessary to adopt the interest rate, which is more informative, as the intermediate target, which takes the marketization of the interest rate and exchange rate as the preconditions. __________ Translated from Jingji Yanjiu 经济研究 (Economic Research Journal), 2008, (10): 37–51     

The evolution of portfolio rules and the capital asset pricing model

The aim of this paper is to test the performance of capital asset pricing model (CAPM) in an evolutionary framework. We model an economy where a heterogeneous population of long-lived agents invest their wealth according to different portfolio rules, and prove that traders who either “believe” in CAPM and use it as a rule of thumb, or are endowed with genuine mean-variance preferences, under some very weak conditions, vanish in the long run.We show that a sufficient condition to drive CAPM or mean-variance traders’ wealth shares to zero is that an investor endowed with a logarithmic utility function enters the market.     

Price cap regulation of a dominant firm facing competition

Price cap regulation is typically applied to natural monopolies operating with subadditive costs. Price caps are known to provide superior incentives for the regulated monopoly to pursue cost reduction and, in a multiservice/product context, undertake welfare enhancing price discrimination. It is well known that capping a Laspeyres index of the firm’s prices induces the monopoly to charge socially optimal “Ramsey” prices in the long run. This paper examines the suitability of the Laspeyres form of regulation when the regulated firm faces competition in the market for one of its services (outputs). We present the appropriately modified Ramsey pricing rule for the regulated dominant firm and demonstrate that capping a Laspeyres index of the dominant firm’s prices leads to prices that satisfy this pricing rule in the long run.     

Synergy Goes to War: A Bioeconomic Theory of Collective Violence

Synopsis Synergy – here defined as otherwise unattainable combined effects that are produced by two or more elements, parts or individuals – has played a key causal role in the evolution of complexity, from the very origins of life to the evolution of humankind and complex societies. This theory – known as the ‘Synergism Hypothesis’ – also applies to social behavior, including the use of collective violence for various purposes: predation, defense against predators, the acquisition of needed resources and the defense of these resources against other groups and species. Among other things, there have been (1) synergies of scale, (2) cost and risk sharing, (3) a division of labor (or, better said, a ‘combination of labor’), (4) functional complementarities, (5) information sharing and collective ‘intelligence’, and (6) tool and technology ‘symbioses’. Many examples can be seen in the natural world – from predatory bacteria like Myxococcus xanthus to social insects like the predatory army ants and the colonial raiders Messor pergandei, mobbing birds like the common raven, cooperative pack-hunting mammals like wolves, wild dogs, hyenas and lions, coalitions of mate-seeking and mate-guarding male dolphins, the well-armed troops of savanna baboons, and, closest to humans, the group-hunting, group-raiding and even ‘warring’ communities of chimpanzees. Equally significant, there is reason to believe that various forms of collective violence were of vital importance to our own ancestors’ transition, over several million years, from an arboreal, frugivorous, mostly quadrupedal ape to a world-traveling, omnivorous, large-brained, tool-dependent, loquacious biped. The thesis that warfare is not a recent ‘historical’ invention will be briefly reviewed in this paper. This does not mean that humans are, after all, ‘killer apes’ with a reflexive blood-lust or an aggressive ‘drive’. The biological, psychological and cultural underpinnings of collective violence are far more subtle and complex. Most important, the incidence of collective violence – in nature and human societies alike – is greatly influenced by synergies of various kinds, which shape the ‘bioeconomic’ benefits, costs and risks. Synergy is a necessary (but not sufficient) causal agency. Though there are notable exceptions (and some significant qualifiers), collective violence is, by and large, an evolved, synergy-driven instrumentality in humankind, not a mindless instinct or a reproductive strategy run amok.