Credit constraints,firms׳ precautionary investment,and the business cycle

Credit constrained firms prefer types of capital that generate significant pledgeable output and are liquid, since they loosen current and future credit constraints. Because pledgeability and liquidity are low for long-term firm-specific capital, a negative temporary aggregate productivity shock that tightens credit constraints creates a bias towards liquid short-term investments. This dampens the short-run negative output reaction to the shock, at the expense of strong medium-run propagation effects. This mechanism can create a short-run expansion when a future tightening in credit conditions is anticipated.     

Financial distress, bankruptcy law and the business cycle

This paper explores the business cycle implications of financial distress and bankruptcy law. We find that due to the presence of financial imperfections the effect of liquidations on the price of capital goods can generate endogenous fluctuations. We show that a law reform that ‘softens’ bankruptcy law may increase the amplitude of the cycle in the long run. In contrast, a policy of bailing out businesses during the bust or actively managing the interest rate across the cycle could stabilize the economy in the long run. A comprehensive welfare analysis of these policies is provided as well.      

Consumption heterogeneity,employment dynamics and macroeconomic co-movement

Real-business-cycle models rely on total factor productivity (TFP) shocks to explain the observed co-movement among consumption, investment and hours. However an emerging body of evidence identifies “investment shocks” as important drivers of business cycles. This paper shows that a neoclassical model consistent with observed heterogeneity in labor supply and consumption across employed and non-employed can generate co-movement in response non-TFP shocks. Estimation reveals fluctuations in the marginal efficiency of investment that explain the bulk of business-cycle variance in consumption, investment and hours. A corollary of the model׳s empirical success is the labor wedge that is not important at business-cycle frequencies.     

Macroeconomic stability or financial stability: How are capital controls used? Insights from a new database

While the traditional objectives of capital controls were to address macroeconomic stability risks, a new “externalities view” has emerged prescribing their use to contain financial stability risks. In this context, our understanding of whether capital controls are used in practice to mitigate macroeconomic or financial stability remains limited. Using a novel database on high-frequency capital account regulations for 47 advanced and emerging economies from 2008 to 2020, this paper empirically assesses this question. Our main findings are that: (a) in emerging markets there is a strong association of capital controls on inflows to mitigate risks to macro stability but not financial stability risks; (b) in advanced economies there is a robust association between capital controls on inflows to lean against the buildup of financial stability but not macro stability risks; (c) banking sector flows, but not aggregate capital flows, are strongly associated with tightening capital controls on inflows in emerging markets; and (d) pooling advanced and emerging economies attenuates regression estimates and would lead to concluding that capital controls have weak association with both financial and macro stability motives. Our results can be rationalized by the greater capital flows, more volatile business cycles and stronger interaction between business and financial cycles in emerging markets, and the deeper asset markets found in advanced economies.     

金融结构如何影响了外资进入方式选择？

随着全球价值链进入深度重构的关键时期,金融结构对于一国外资进入方式选择的重要性日益凸显,本文采用65个国家2003—2017年跨国面板数据,从理论和实证两个层面系统探讨了金融结构与一国外资进入方式选择之间的关系。研究表明:(1)无论是发达国家还是发展中国家东道国,市场主导型金融结构均有助于外资以跨国并购方式进入东道国,但发达国家正向促进作用显著大于发展中国家,克服了内生性和经济波动的影响后,结论依旧稳健。(2)进一步机制检验结果发现,技术创新引致和国家风险管控是金融结构影响外资进入方式选择的重要渠道。其中,金融结构的国家风险渠道机制,主要通过降低经济金融风险来实现。(3)此外,引入国家营商环境指数发现,营商环境的改善不仅对外资以跨国并购方式进入具有直接促进作用,而且能间接调节金融市场对外资进入结构优化的提升作用。本文研究为我国深化金融供给侧结构性改革,改善营商环境,进而实现引资结构优化提供了政策启示。     

金融支持保障性住房建设商业可持续问题研究

大规模实施保障性安居工程建设,是党中央、国务院做出的重大决策。目前保障房建设相应配套政策制度尚不完善,项目建设发展模式多样,投融资模式各不相同,且很多保障房项目存在现金流不足问题,给金融支持保障房建设项目评估和风险评价带来较大不确定性。本文分析了保障房投融资模式和商业可持续的关键点,并通过实例分析金融支持商业可持续性,研究提出了保障房金融服务思路和政策建议。     

企业财务弹性与投资行为关系：一个金融危机环境下的数据检验

采用1200家中国上市公司金融危机期间2007~2011年的面板数据和随机效应模型,对财务弹性与公司投资行为的关系进行检验,研究发现：不同行业、不同所有权控股、不同板块上市公司的财务弹性及投资行为存在明显差异;财务弹性对投资规模具有较为明显的促进作用,对投资方向的影响作用不明显。     

区域金融发展与金融一体化问题研究——基于中国的实证与分析

随着我国区域金融的深化和发展,金融相关比率和市场化竞争程度也在不断提高。但是金融发展了,区域金融一体化程度并没有相应提高,甚至在下降。本文利用面板数据,对中国1952-2004年间,三大区域金融一体化程度进行实证检验和比较分析,并试图解释这种金融一体化程度不升反降之谜。     

Credit frictions and the comovement between durable and non-durable consumption

Frictions in lending between households have been proposed as a solution to the difficulties new-Keynesian models have in predicting a decline in both durable and non-durable consumption following a monetary tightening. By revisiting a standard new-Keynesian framework with collateral constraints, it is shown that the presence of such credit frictions in fact makes it more difficult to generate the joint decline. The intuitive reasons behind this result are provided, which should be helpful in developing models that are more successful in generating a positive comovement between durables and non-durables.     

金融危机、财务弹性与企业投资

基于现金持有量和财务杠杆的视角,研究财务弹性对企业投资行为的影响,并进一步探讨金融危机下财务弹性对企业投资的影响.实证结果表明,企业财务弹性与企业投资成正相关;企业投资对现金弹性的依赖较小,对负债融资弹性依赖较大;与正常经营时期相比,危机时期下财务弹性对企业投资的影响更显著.     

Expectation-driven cycles in the housing market: Evidence from survey data

Using a vector-autoregression (VAR) model and data from the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers, we provide evidence on the importance of news and consumers’ beliefs for housing-market dynamics and aggregate fluctuations. We document that innovations to News on Business Conditions generate hump-shaped responses in house prices and other macroeconomic variables. We also show that innovations to Expectations of Rising House Prices are particularly important in explaining the path of macroeconomic variables during housing booms. To disentangle the effects of News on Business Conditions from other sources of expectation-driven cycles, we estimate a VAR where the News variable is ordered first. Innovations to News on Business Conditions generate Expectations of Rising House Prices. However, during housing booms, innovations to Expectations of Rising House Prices unrelated to News on Business Conditions account for a large part of macroeconomic fluctuations. Shocks to News and Expectations account together for more than half of the forecast error variance of house prices, and other macroeconomic variables, during periods of booms in house prices.