Female labor force participation: an international perspective.

This article gives an international perspective in regard to female participation in the labor force. In most countries women contribute less than men toward the value of recorded production. Social environment, statistical inconsistencies and methods of recording labor all contribute to this inequity. In Britain for instance, women caring for the household duties are in some studies considered to be part of the labor force and in other studies they are not. Further, internationally, women often find themselves in casual, temporary, or seasonal work that goes unrecorded. Defining what "labor force participation" constitutes is a key starting point to any survey. At what age is one considered employable? What constitutes a person "actively seeking" employment? Economists often try to explain labor force participation rate by age, sex, race and income groups and use this information to cite trends. The income-leisure model theorizes that choice of work or non-work by women is based primarily upon wages for work vs. wages for non-work. This theory sees non-labor income exerting a negative influence. Empirical evidence, however, suggests that women will choose work if wages are good regardless of any non-work benefits. Because most men are permanently in the labor force, estimates of labor reserves and projections of supply focus mostly on women. International generalizations are often misleading since trends vary widely among countries. During the last 20 years the global female participation rate has remained almost constant, but this is misleading. The percentage of working women in industrial countries increased 10%; developing countries showed a decrease of 7%. Female rates are often tied closely to shifts in the overall economy, (e.g., a transition from an agricultural to an industrial economy often sees a drop in female labor because subsistence jobs are lost). Of course the ability of women to bear children and the social expectations regarding child care often play a role. It is common in western industrialized countries to see drops in female participation during childbearing years. Countries with the lowest female participation rates are those with strong religious views about women in society, (e.g., Catholic and Muslim countries).     

Search Frictions,Labor Supply,and the Asymmetric Business Cycle

We develop a business cycle model that generates asymmetry between peaks and troughs of the unemployment rate and symmetric fluctuations of the participation rate as in the U.S. data. We calibrate the model and find that search frictions are solely responsible for the peak–trough asymmetry. Participation decisions do not generate asymmetry but contribute to the fluctuations in search frictions by changing the size and composition of the pool of job seekers, which in turn affects the tightness ratio and thereby slack in the labor market. The participation rate would be counterfactually asymmetric absent labor supply responses to shocks.     

就业、失业与劳动力市场退出——来自资源型城市的实证研究

本文利用Probit和Multinomial logit模型,对影响我国资源型城市就业、失业、退出劳动力市场的因素进行了实证分析,分析认为处于三种不同状态的人群在人口特征、受教育程度和家庭特征等方面具有系统性的差异。     

Inflation dynamics with search frictions: A structural econometric analysis

The New Keynesian Phillips curve explains inflation dynamics as being driven by current and expected future real marginal costs. In competitive labor markets, the labor share can serve as a proxy for the latter. In this paper, we study the role of real marginal cost components implied by search frictions in the labor market. We construct a measure of real marginal costs by using newly available labor market data on worker finding rates. Over the business cycle, the measure is highly correlated with the labor share. Estimates of the Phillips curve using generalized method of moments reveal that the marginal cost measure remains significant, and that inflation dynamics are mainly driven by the forward-looking component. Bayesian estimation of the full New Keynesian model with search frictions helps us disentangle which shocks are driving the economy to generate the observed unit labor cost dynamics. We find that mark-up shocks are the dominant force in labor market fluctuations.     

On the cyclical behavior of employment, unemployment and labor force participation

In this paper I evaluate to what extent a real business cycle (RBC) model that incorporates search and home production decisions can simultaneously account for the observed behavior of employment, unemployment and out-of-the-labor-force. This contrasts with the previous RBC literature, which analyzed employment or hours fluctuations either by lumping together unemployment and out-of-the-labor-force into a single non-employment state or by assuming a fixed labor force. Once the three employment states are explicitly introduced I find that the RBC model generates highly counterfactual labor market dynamics.     

Are unions an anachronism?

The labor movement in the United States has its roots deep in the soil of worker discontent over grueling working conditions, low pay, and indifference of bosses, who profited from others' sweaty labor. As more and more grubby jobs are replaced by technological innovations, as work becomes more abstract and everyone wears a white shirt, and as managers schooled in motivation theory and humane ideals of participation replace the owner-bosses of yesterday, what role will the unions have left to play? The author of this article, who has been in both the labor force and management, explores what the changes in the labor market will be in the future and what these changes will mean for labor-management relations. He does not conclude that there is no role for unions-only that it will be very different and that to survive unions will have to tackle new issues in the workplace. That adaptation will affect management's stance as well.     

The Shadow Margins of Labor Market Slack

We use a mix of new and existing data to develop the Aggregate Hours Gap (AHG), a novel measure of labor market underutilization. Our measure differentiates individuals by detailed categories of labor market participation and uses data on their desired work hours as a measure of their potential labor supply. We show that desired hours vary widely by demographics and detailed labor force status, and that the gap between desired and actual work hours is strongly positively correlated with reported search effort. The AHG suggests a more sluggish labor market recovery since the Great Recession than either the official unemployment rate or alternative measures of labor market underutilization. Modest amounts of underutilization among the part-time employed and a substantial degree of underutilization among those out of the labor force account for the disparity. The AHG also does well in accounting for wage movements over our sample period.     

Social Transfers and Labor Force Participation Relation in Turkey: A Bivariate Probit Analysis

This study explores the association of labor force and social assistance program participation decisions in Turkey by employing the 2011 household budget survey (HBS) data. The issue is investigated in a bivariate probit framework, where the two incidences are jointly modeled. The differences in rural and urban behavior are also explored. Empirical results indicate that the more one works, the less one participates in social transfer program, and vice versa. Additionally, age, gender, household type and composition impact decision-making process of individuals both in urban and rural areas. The negative association between labor force participation and social transfer program participation is more pronounced in urban areas compared with the rural areas.     

经济增长视角下的中国劳动力数量与结构变化

我国劳动年龄人口（15-59岁）已经在2012年呈现负增长,劳动力（20-59岁）数量也将从2016年开始下降,2022年开始,我国劳动力数量则会快速下降。目前劳动供给紧平衡,农村向城镇转移劳动力速度放缓,工资快速上涨,求人倍率连续三年大于1。伴随我国劳动力数量下降,劳动市场将供小于求,影响我国经济增长。文章建议,一方面要提高劳动参与率,降低经济对劳动力数量的依赖,另一方面要提高劳动效率,采取有效措施促进农村就业人口向城镇转移,减少结构性就业矛盾。     

Equity fund ownership and the cross-regional diversification of household risk

We explore the link between portfolio home bias and consumption risk sharing among Italian regions using household-level information on consumption, income and portfolio holdings. Since equity funds are typically diversified at the national or international level, we use data on equity fund ownership to proxy for regional home bias. Cross-regional patterns of equity fund ownership are qualitatively consistent with simple portfolio theory: regions with more asymmetric business cycles are more diversified because they have higher fund participation rates (the extensive margin of diversification) and higher average holdings of equity funds (diversification’s intensive margin). Also, fund holdings increase with the exposure of non-tradable income components (such as labor or entrepreneurial income) to regional shocks. Finally, interregional consumption risk sharing increases with fund holdings and this effect seems strongest when participation is widespread. Increased equity market participation could substantially improve interregional risk sharing.     

A theory of the natural unemployment rate and the duration of employment

In this paper, a theory of the natural or equilibrium rate of unemployment is built around a theory of the duration of employment. Evidence is presented that most unemployed workers became unemployed because their previous jobs came to an end; only a minority are on temporary layoff or have just entered the labor force. Thus, high-unemployment labor markets are generally ones where jobs are brief and there is a large flow of newly jobless workers. The model of the duration of employment posits that employment arrangements are the efficient outcome of the balancing of workers' and employers' interests about the length of jobs. Full equilibrium in the labor market also requires that the rate at which unemployed workers find new jobs be efficient. The factors influencing the resulting natural unemployment rate are discussed. Under plausible assumptions, the natural rate is independent of the supply or demand for labor. Only the costs of recruiting, the costs of turnover to employers, the efficiency of matching jobs and workers, and the cost of unemployment to workers are likely to influence the natural rate of unemployment strongly. Since these are probably stable over time, the paper concludes that fluctuations in the natural unemployment rate are unlikely to contribute much to fluctuations in the observed unemployment rate.     

Elderly empowerment,fertility, and public pensions

The economic role of elderly people is underestimated in the context of the debate on pension reforms. This is because, as healthy life expectancy increases, the elderly become more active not only in the labor market but also in household production. Using a three-period overlapping-generations model in which grandparents allocate time between labor and informal childcare (“grandparenting”), we analyze the interaction among grandparenting, fertility, elderly labor, and public pensions. We obtain two analytical results. First, increasing the pension contribution rate increases grandparenting. Second, elderly labor force participation rates are negatively (positively) related to the fertility rates among countries with small (large) public pensions. The nonlinear relationship between elderly labor and fertility is empirically supported.

     

房地产市场变化与通货膨胀传导机制

文章分析了房价上涨在通胀形成和传导中的作用,指出房地产等资产价格上涨通过引发通胀预期推高各类生产要素特别是劳动力成本价格,从而对整体价格水平产生成本推动型的上涨压力,其中劳动力等生产要素价格上涨通过加大食品价格波幅和提高其价格中枢水平对通胀水平产生显著影响,因此,抑制物价须管好房价,并充分发挥货币政策的作用。     

Aggregate Implications of Heterogeneous Households in a Sticky‐Price Model

This paper analyzes the role of heterogeneous households in propagating shocks over the business cycle by generalizing a basic sticky‐price model to allow for imperfect risk sharing between households that differ in labor incomes. I show that imperfectly insured household consumption distorts household incentive to supply labor hours through an idiosyncratic income effect, which in turn generates strategic complementarities in price setting and thus amplifies business cycle fluctuations. This mechanism diminishes the role of nominal rigidities and makes sticky‐price models more consistent with microeconomic evidence on the frequency of price changes.     

Labor Force Participation and Monetary Policy in the Wake of the Great Recession

This paper provides compelling evidence that cyclical factors account for the bulk of the post‐2007 decline in the U.S. labor force participation rate (LFPR). We then formulate a stylized New Keynesian model in which the LFPR is practically acyclical during “normal times” but drops markedly following a large and persistent aggregate demand shock. These considerations have potentially crucial implications for the design of monetary policy, especially when interest rate adjustments are constrained by the zero lower bound; specifically, monetary policy can induce a more rapid recovery of the LFPR by allowing the unemployment rate to fall below its natural rate.     

Financing child care: who will pay for the kids?

This article examines the current debate in the United States concerning who should pay for the child care that most parties agree should be provided, given the rapid growth in mothers' participation in the labor force. The author concludes that the current budget stalemate makes even modest increases in federal government funding for child care difficult to find. The most likely source of additional funds for child care for low-income mothers is a reduction of such support for middle- and upper-income families as exists at present.     

How International Exchange, Technology, and Institutions Affect Workers: An Introduction

In a world of deepening trade links, rapid technological change,and weakening institutions, workers in rich and poor countriesalike are concerned about their incomes and the security oftheir work. In contrast to the substantial quantity of analysison industrial countries, relatively little careful work hasbeen done on these issues in developing countries, especiallyin the context of the recent globalization of economic relations.Empirical work suggests that disequalizing trends in some developingcountries may have been caused by the entry of low-income countriessuch as China into world production or by the greater qualityand technological requirements of contemporary trade in goods.Whatever the source, these results raise questions about theviability of institutional mechanisms for supporting the incomesecurity and working conditions of workers. Many labor marketregulations are already ineffective owing to weak enforcementcapabilities. However, in most developing countries, there willbe a rising fraction of workers in formal labor contracts, risingdemands for formal mechanisms for dealing with income insecurity,and a potentially larger role for unions in an important segmentof the work force. Thus, it is of increasing importance to setthe policy and institutional framework in a fashion that isboth consistent with competitive pressures and supportive ofworkers' participation and security.     

Fiscal sustainability and demographic change: a micro-approach for 27 EU countries

The effect of demographic change on the labor force and on fiscal revenues is topical in light of potential pension shortfalls. This paper evaluates the effect of demographic changes between 2010 and 2030 on labor force participation and government budgets in the EU-27. Our analysis involves the incorporation of population projections, and an explicit modeling of the supply and demand side of the labor market. Our approach overcomes key shortcomings of most existing studies that focus only on labor supply when assessing the effects of policy reforms. Ignoring wage reactions greatly understates the increase in fiscal revenues, suggesting that fiscal strain from demographic change might be less severe than currently perceived. Beyond, our micro-based approach captures the impact on fiscal revenues more accurately than previous studies. Finally, as a policy response to demographic change and worsening fiscal budgets, we simulate the increase in the statutory retirement age. Our policy simulations confirm that raising the statutory retirement age can balance fiscal budgets in the long run.     

What do deficits tell us about debt? Empirical evidence on creative accounting with fiscal rules in the EU

Fiscal rules, such as the excessive deficit procedure and the stability and growth pact (SGP), aim at constraining government behavior. [Milesi-Ferretti, G., 2003. Good, bad or ugly? On the effects of fiscal rules with creative accounting, Journal of Public Economics, 88, 377–394] develops a model in which governments circumvent such rules by reverting to creative accounting. The amount of this depends on the reputation cost for the government and the economic cost of sticking to the rule. We provide empirical evidence of creative accounting in the European Union. We find that the SGP rules have induced governments to use stock-flow adjustments, a form of creative accounting, to hide deficits. The tendency to substitute stock-flow adjustments for budget deficits is especially strong for the cyclical component of the deficit, as in times of recession the cost of reducing the deficit is particularly large.     

Eldercaring employees: an agenda for employers

The aging of the U.S. society and the growth in female labor force participation have produced a workplace environment in which eldercare is becoming common. In the context of the employed caregiver, this article reviews the nature of long-term caregiving arrangements, including the onset of long-term care need, the trajectory that such care takes and the means by which most long-term care needs are met. Six specific recommendations are offered for employers to proactively plan for the impact of eldercare in the workplace.