完善政府间转移支付制度实现公共服务均等化

实现地区间公共服务均等化是我国处理政府间财政关系所长期追求的目标之一.目前,各地公共产品提供很不均衡,这一局面亟待改变.政府间转移支付制度是有助于实现公共服务均等化的,但我国现行的政府间转移支付制度在运行环境和制度本身设计都存在一些问题,文章就此提出了完善现行政府间转移支付制度的一些措施.     

政府间转移支付体系走向:一个文献综述

政府间转移支付体系,作为政府调节各级财政关系的重要制度安排,对于弥补纵向财力分配,矫正外部性,平衡区域经济社会发展,实现基本公共服务均等化等方面具有重要作用。围绕政府间转移支付体系的制度本身及其在实现公共服务均等化、实现财力平衡以及地区经济增长等领域的绩效,着重从政策层面和学术研讨层面梳理现有文献,并对现阶段研究存在问题和进一步改善的空间进行思考。     

我国政府间事权财权划分的方式演进、面临问题及对策建议

分税制财政分权体制下我国政府间事权财权划分存在事权界定模糊、中央与地方的事权和财力不对称、事权财权划分中缺乏规范的法律界定的问题。构建和完善我国政府间事权财权划分的法治化体系应从修正《中华人民共和国宪法》、制定《中央与地方关系法》、制定中央和地方政府财政收入权划分的法律以及完善《预算法》等方面入手。     

Twentieth Century Shocks, Trends and Cycles in Industrialized Nations

Using annual data on real Gross Domestic Product per capita of seventeen industrialized nations in the twentieth century the empirical relevance of shocks, trends and cycles is investigated. A class of neural network models is specified as an extension of the class of vector autoregressive models in order to capture complex data patterns for different countries and subperiods. Empirical evidence indicates nonlinear positive trends in the levels of real GDP per capita, time varying growth rates, switching behavior of individual countries with respect to their position in the distribution of real GDP per capita levels over time. Such evidence presents challenges for economic modelling, forecasting and policy analysis for the long run.     

中国政府间财政转移支付制度问题分析与对策研究

目前中国政府间严格意义上的财政转移支付制度是以1994年"分税制"为起点开始实践并逐渐展开的.通过对现阶段各类转移支付的具体分析,可以观察到巨大的转移支付规模背后,隐含着制度上的诸多不合理因素.如何完善政府间财政转移支付制度,增进制度效率已经成为地区间基本公共服务均等化的迫切要求.     

Business Cycle Fluctuations,Large Macroeconomic Shocks,and Development Aid

We examine the cyclical properties of development aid using bilateral data for 22 donors and 113 recipients during 1970–2005. We find that bilateral aid flows are on average procyclical with respect to the business cycle in both donor and recipient countries. While aid outlays contract sharply during severe downturns in donor countries, they rise steeply when aid-receiving countries experience large adverse shocks. Our findings suggest that development aid may play an important cushioning role in developing countries, but only during times of severe macroeconomic stress. Our results are robust to alternate definitions of aid flows, specifications, and estimation techniques.     

Unemployment Dynamics, and Propagation of Aggregate and Reallocation Shocks in the Netherlands

This paper models the propagation at the macro level of four types of shocks using the SVAR approach. Time series data for the Netherlands on job creation, job destruction, the number of vacancies and labour supply are used to identify aggregate demand and supply shocks, and reallocation demand and supply shocks as different sources of unemployment dynamics. Each of these four types of shocks appears to have at least some influence on unemployment both in the short and long run. The long run influence of the aggregate labour supply shock is estimated to be very limited. It indicates that additional labour supply is almost fully absorbed by labour demand in the long run.     

Indonesian Local Government Spending,Taxing and Saving: An Explanation of Pre‐ and Post‐decentralization Fiscal Outcomes*

As a result of Indonesia's decentralization program, local governments have gained significantly more responsibility for service delivery, considerably larger fiscal resources, and much greater authority over the use of those resources than before. The present paper develops a simple budget model to describe and explain the substantial differences in pre‐ and post‐decentralization local government fiscal behavior related to spending, taxing and saving. During the post‐decentralization period special attention is paid to the fiscal behavior of natural resource rich regions. Among other things, the evidence suggests that: post‐decentralization local government spending is partly responsive to increasing needs and partly the subject of elite capture; local government taxation has become more aggressive under decentralization and appears to be mostly driven by local bureaucratic expectations related to routine overhead budgets; and the increased savings of local governments during the post‐decentralization period is determined to a large degree by delayed central government transfer payments.     

政府间转移支付、物流专业化与企业出口行为

文章以政府间转移支付、物流专业化影响企业出口行为的理论为基础,采用2000-2013年中国县级财政经济统计数据以及中国工业企业微观数据,运用Heckman两阶段法探究政府间转移支付、物流专业化与企业出口行为的总体关系。研究发现,政府间转移支付显著推动企业出口参与度的提高和出口规模的增长,物流专业化对上述企业出口行为均有显著的积极影响,政府间转移支付在物流专业化与企业出口行为的关系之间呈现显著的负向调节作用。在通过解决变量内生性问题、消除分配政策影响、考虑新冠肺炎疫情等外生冲击影响等一系列稳健性检验后,上述结论依然成立。进一步对政府间转移支付的异质性分析结果显示,一般性转移支付与物流专业化的交互项对企业出口参与度的回归结果变为正向显著。中介效应检验表明,政府间转移支付主要通过协调区域经济发展、基本公共服务均等化、改善财政收支结构促进企业自身出口参与和出口规模扩张;物流专业化主要通过物流规模扩张和物流效率提升促进企业出口二元边际增长。在新冠肺炎疫情长期持续和当前复杂艰难的国际贸易形势下,这一研究对我国继续优化政府间转移支付分配结构、强化物流专业化比较优势,进一步释放企业出口潜力,畅通国内国际经济双循环具有重要参考价值。     

农村土地流转存在的问题及对策分析

文章认为,农村土地流转过程中存在干部不尊重农民意愿、过多干预损害农民利益、土地流转程序简便但流转手续不规范等问题。推进和加强我国农村土地流转必须：明确土地权利,形成多样化的土地流转形式;大力培育发展农村土地流转的中介组织机构;明确乡镇政府职能,搞好服务;完善保障,弱化农地的社会保障功能;多渠道、多途径输转农村劳动力,减轻土地压力。     

Macroeconomic Effects of Commodity Price Shocks in a Low‐income Economy: The Case of Tobacco in Malawi

A major concern for developing economies is a dependence on commodities when their prices are volatile as a major change in the international commodity price can have important implications for economic growth. While some cross‐country studies exist, there is lack of country specific studies that take into account the different characteristics of low‐income economies. This paper contributes to the growing literature by considering the case of Malawi and the macroeconomic impact of price shocks in its major export crop of tobacco. Using a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) approach on quarterly Malawian data from 1980:1 to 2012:4, the paper establishes that a positive tobacco price shock has a significant positive impact on the country's gross domestic product, decreasing consumer prices and inducing real exchange rate appreciation. The results are robust to alternative specifications of a SVAR on difference stationary data and cointegrating VAR. The cointegrating VAR confirms the existence of a long run‐relationship among the variables and causality that runs from tobacco prices.