Systemic liquidity contagion in the European interbank market

Systemic liquidity risk, defined by the International Monetary Fund as “the risk of simultaneous liquidity difficulties at multiple financial institutions,” is a key topic in financial stability studies and macroprudential policy-making. In this context, the complex web of interconnections of the interbank market plays the crucial role of allowing funding liquidity shortages to propagate between financial institutions. Here, we introduce a simple yet effective model of the interbank market in which liquidity shortages propagate through an epidemic-like contagion mechanism on the network of interbank loans. The model is defined by using aggregate balance sheet information of European banks, and it exploits country and bank-specific risk features to account for the heterogeneity of financial institutions. Moreover, in order to obtain the European-wide topology of the interbank network, we define a block reconstruction method based on the exchange flows between the various countries. We show that the proposed contagion model is able to estimate systemic liquidity risk across different years and countries. Results suggest that our effective contagion approach can be successfully used as a viable alternative to more realistic but complicated models, which not only require more specific balance sheet variables with high time resolution but also need assumptions on how banks respond to liquidity shocks.

     

Default-risky bond prices with jumps,liquidity risk and incomplete information

This paper provides a default-risky bond valuation model, which assumes that the issuer’s credit quality, modelled by the intensity of default, is driven by a continuous-time Markov chain. The model accounts for default and liquidity risk as well as incomplete information. A full-information semimartingale representation of a liquid defaultable bond price, which separates three different types of risks—default, interest-rate and credit-quality, is obtained. The illiquidity is modelled as exogenously specified stochastic reduction in the price of the bond, which adds more risks for the investors. A model of a market with partially informed investors, belonging to specific investor classes and having access to discrete information sets about credit quality, was specified. Valuations of defaultable bonds in this market were provided as well as price impacts of the new information releases.      

Cross-sectional differences in the liquidity effects of open market share repurchases

I examine liquidity changes associated with open market share repurchases, with the focus on potential cross-sectional variations of liquidity effects. I hypothesize that a liquidity change, either a decrease or an increase, will be larger in a firm with a higher degree of pre-announcement information asymmetry. Results suggest that the null hypothesis of no liquidity change cannot be rejected. In particular, there is no evidence for cross-sectional variation of liquidity changes across firms with differing degrees of information asymmetry. Special/thanks go to Kim Woo Choong, former chairman of DAEWOO Group, and Park Chung Kil for their support.     

Toward an understanding of market resilience: market liquidity and heterogeneity in the investor decision cycle

During liquidity shocks such as occur when margin calls force the liquidation of leveraged positions, there is a widening disparity between the reaction speed of the liquidity demanders and the liquidity providers. Those who are forced to sell typically must take action within the span of a day, while those who are providing liquidity do not face similar urgency. Indeed, the flurry of activity and increased volatility of prices during the liquidity shocks might actually reduce the speed with which many liquidity providers come to the market. To analyze these dynamics, we build upon previous agent-based models of financial markets, and specifically the Preis et. al (Europhys Lett 75(3):510–516, 2006) model, to develop an order-book model with heterogeneity in trader decision cycles. The model demonstrates an adherence to important stylized facts such as a leptokurtic distribution of returns, decay of autocorrelations over moderate to long time lags, and clustering volatility. Consistent with empirical analysis of recent market events, we demonstrate the impact of heterogeneous decision cycles on market resilience and the stochastic properties of market prices.     

Tax effects in the dutch bond market

In this paper an analysis of the Dutch bond market is made. The technique used is linear programming. Given the fact that coupon income and capital gains are taxed differently and that some investors are tax-exempt in the Netherlands, it is shown that there are overpriced bonds in the market. This is as can be expected. But it is found that there are bonds that a rational investor would never hold in his portpolio, whatever the tax rate the investor has to pay on coupon income. Given the fact that the Dutch bond market is very illiquid for some bonds, an analysis of the effects of bid-ask spreads is made. It is shown that the effect of these spreads cannot explain the existence of bonds that are overpriced. It is not clear where these remaining overpricings stem from.     

流动性的股票特征——基于中国证券市场的经验数据分析

在对流动性内涵认识的基础上,本文提出股票流动性的本质是股票与现金之间相互转化的能力,满足的是投资者正常的交易需求。从流动性的公司规模和成交金额特征、流动性与股价的关系和流动性水平的稳定性三个方面理论探讨和实证检验了流动性的股票特征,研究结果表明：（1）公司规模一定,可实现的成交金额越多,流动性越好;成交金额一定,公司规模越大,流动性越好;（2）股票的价格与股票流动性之间具有显著的正相关关系;（3）流动性水平在一定时期内具有稳定性。     

The impact of ADR activity on stock market liquidity: Evidence from Latin America

This paper examines the impact of ADR activity on liquidity of four major Latin American stock markets. We construct a measure of ADR activity in U.S. markets for a sample of ADRs trading during January 2003–December 2010, which is subsequent to the financial liberalization episodes and currency crises that shocked emerging markets in the 1990s. The sample lists 164 depositary receipt programs (Levels I, II, and III): 16 from Argentina, 81 from Brazil, 19 from Chile, and 48 from Mexico. Using System GMM methods to handle the potential effects from stock market development on economic growth and ADR issuance, we find that higher ADR turnover in U.S. markets has positive effects on domestic market turnover, particularly for issuance of exchange-listed (Levels II and III) ADRs. This positive relationship is not a statistical artifact created by the global financial crisis of 2008.     

08'地产市场主要政策备忘录

1月3日,国务院出台<关于促进节约集约用地的通知>.强调土地闲置满两年、依法应当无偿收回的,坚决无偿收回,重新安排使用;土地闲置满一年不满两年的,按出让或划拨土地价款的20%征收土地闲置费.对闲置土地特别是闲置房地产用地要征缴增值地价.……     

完善证券市场结构推进债券市场发展

中国正在快速步入全面建设的小康社会,新旧体制的矛盾,伴随着经济的快速发展,使得新的危机和隐患也在快速积累。十届全国政协委员,厦门大学教授、博士生导师王光远一直致力于有关建立信用体系、完善证券市场、加快金融体制改革等重大经济问题的研究。本文根据王光远教授在今年年初刚刚闭幕的十届全国政治协商会议小组讨论上的发言稿整理而成。     

我国企业债券市场发育迟缓原因及建议

目前,我国企业的外部融资主要来自银行贷款和股票市场,1997年到1999年的三年中,企业通过股票市场融资均在1000亿元左右,而通过债券融资仅有几百亿元.1999年我国共发行企业债券420亿元,这仅占当年GDP总值8.2万亿元的0.51%,而同年美国的企业债券发行额达到2500亿美元,占当年GDP的3%,企业债券的发行量为同期股票发行量的5.8倍.在当前的经济情况下,给企业债券市场以准确定位,采取相应的措施促进其发展,对拓宽企业融资渠道、促进企业实力增强,甚至对保证国民经济的持续、健康发展都有重要意义.     

Tax-free trading on calendar stock and bond market patterns

This study investigates the feasibility of using individual retirement accounts to exploit well-known calendar anomalies in the financial markets. We find no evidence of either a January effect or a weekend effect which may imply that investors have traded them out of existence. However, we find a significant turn-of-the-month effect in both stocks and bonds and show that investors may be able to enhance the performance of their retirement portfolios. We demonstrate that investors using a turn-of-the-month switching strategy would have outperformed a buy-and-hold strategy in stocks or bonds. Finally, our results have policy implications for investment companies.     

Forecasting bond yields in the Brazilian fixed income market

This paper studies the predictive ability of a variety of models in forecasting the yield curve for the Brazilian fixed income market. We compare affine term structure models with a variation of the Nelson–Siegel exponential framework developed by Diebold and Li [Diebold, F., & Li, C. (2006). Forecasting the Term Structure of Government Yields. Journal of Econometrics, 130, 337–364]. Empirical results suggest that forecasts made with the latter methodology are superior, and appear to be more accurate at long horizons than other different benchmark forecasts. These results are important for policy-makers, as well as for portfolio and risk managers. Further research could study the predictive ability of such models in other emerging markets.     

The outbreak of COVID-19 and stock market liquidity: Evidence from emerging and developed equity markets

The outbreak of the novel corona virus has heightened concerns surrounding the adverse financial effects of the outbreak on stock market liquidity and economic policies. This paper contributes to the emerging strand of studies examining the adverse effects of the virus on varied aspect of global markets. The paper examines the causality and co-movements between COVID-19 and the aggregate stock market liquidity of China, Australia and the G7 countries (Canada, France, Italy, Japan, Germany, the UK and the US), using daily three liquidity proxies (Amihud, Spread and Traded Value) over the period December 2019 to July 2020. Our empirical analysis encompasses wavelet coherence and phase-differences as well as a linear Granger causality test. Linear causality test results suggest that a causal relationship exists between the number of cases of COVID 19 infections and stock market liquidity. To quantitatively examine the degree of causality between COVID-19 outbreak and stock market liquidity, we employ the continuous wavelet coherence approach with results revealing the unprecedented impact of COVID-19 on stock market liquidity during the low frequency bands for countries that were hard hit with the COVID-19 outbreak, i.e., Italy, Germany, France, the UK and the US. Further, evidence shows that there is a heterogeneous lead-lag nexus across scales for the entire period of the study.     

分离均衡定理及其在我国可转债市场的运用

本文阐述了信息不对称条件下企业资本结构的选择及可转债发行的信号作用,重点阐述了stein(1992)的分离均衡定理及其成立的前提条件和激励条件,并对分离均衡定理在我国可转债市场能否成立进行了检验.     

An empirical analysis of market and institutional mechanisms for alleviating information asymmetry in the municipal bond market

This article examines how various market and institutional mechanisms resolve information asymmetry problems in the municipal bond market in the U.S. Information asymmetry exists in this market since a significant percentage of the investors are individuals on one side and many of the issuers are infrequent and relatively small ones on the other side. Using a two-stage switching regression model, we find that these mechanisms, including self-certification, method of sale, underwriter certification, and underlying credit ratings for insured municipal bonds, all help resolve information asymmetry problems and thus reduce borrowing cost for the issuers. (JEL G14)     

航空煤油市场供需格局及发展趋势分析

文章介绍了近年来国内航空煤油市场的供需状况和市场格局,重点对长岭分公司周边航空煤油市场供需格局进行了分析和展望,提出了长岭分公司发展航空煤油的产销构想以及增产航空煤油面临的问题和解决建议。     

基于Nelson-Siegel模型的国债收益曲线拟合

本文用Nelson-Siegel方法利用交易所国债数据时我国国债利率期限结构做了静态估计,估计结果显示此方法较好的拟合了我国国债利率期限结构,比较适合我国国债市场.同时拟合结果也反应出我国国债利率期限结构存在的问题.