To what extent are public savings offset by private savings in the OECD?

The substitutability of private and public savings has implications for the effectiveness of fiscal policy. Using annual data for the period 1970–2004, this study re-examines long-run relationships between OECD private and public savings rates. However, unlike previous work, panel data unit root and cointegration tests are employed. The results confirm substitutability where strong Ricardian Equivalence is rejected for the entire OECD panel. There is support for weak Ricardian Equivalence with less than perfect substitutability. Indeed, it is argued that existing studies most likely overstate the extent of long-run substitutability particularly with regard to EU countries. I am very grateful for the helpful comments provided by the Editor and an anonymous referee. Any remaining errors are my own.     

Why the surge in savings won't last

• ▀ The coronavirus lockdown caused UK savings to surge. We think the household saving ratio will average over 15% in 2020 - almost twice its long-run average - while the corporate sector is likely to run a hefty financial surplus.
• ▀ Evidence suggests that economic shocks usually push up the desire to save, to the detriment of growth. But the uniqueness of the Covid crisis and its aftereffects could limit the extent of the private sector's increased prudence.
• ▀ Scarred by recent events, consumers may remain thriftier as normality returns. But the short duration of the economic contraction and the windfall nature of lockdown savings mean any long-term rise in savings rates could be modest.
• ▀ Meanwhile, post-pandemic, a more cautious attitude to investment and efforts to repair balance sheets suggest higher saving by firms. But the prospect of weak corporate profit growth will, in our view, offset those forces.

     

When excessive cost savings measurement drowns the objectives

This paper presents the dynamics and complexity of implementing a cost savings measurement system in purchasing. It focuses on the technical and strategic aspects of the evolution of such a system in a renowned organisation. Few articles dealing with cost savings in purchasing use an empirical approach. Therefore, this research sheds light on significant issues, often neglected in the literature. Contributions to managers include lessons about the importance of overcoming the complexity of measurements, and recognising that it is easier to begin by measuring hard savings, followed by soft savings when the system is running well. Contributions to the scientific literature include the opportunity to follow the progression of a cost savings measurement system within an organisation, and a discussion about the limitations of such systems.     

居住建筑的合同能源管理

通过分析美国、德国和波兰三个发达国家居住建筑ESPC项目的发展过程、实施成效及取得成效的原因,发现其健全的法律环境、完善的居住建筑ESPC服务体系、有效的推广政策和手段等值得我国借鉴。指出我国应尽快形成合同能源管理服务相关法规与实施细则;通过转变居民用能补贴方式、实施社区ESPC示范项目、提供便捷的节能信息咨询服务等,扩大居住建筑节能改造服务的需求;通过发展居住建筑节能产业、建立畅通的融资渠道和有效的担保机制、培育和规范第三方检测机构等,促进居住建筑ESPC服务体系的形成与发展。     

The dynamic analysis of continuous-time life-cycle savings growth models

Working with the framework of a continuous-time overlapping-generations model, this paper examines equilibrium growth paths (consistent with perfect foresight). In particular, we develop a methodology for characterizing the adjustment paths converging to new stationary states following exogenous shocks. The solution technique yields sequences of derivatives approximating the true dynamic paths and bounds for the errors of approximation. In practice, aggregating behavior over discrete-time intervals can save a great deal of effort — considerably enhancing the set of models feasible for analysis; our error bounds enable us to aggregate without compromising our results to an unknown degree.     

The treatment of registered retirement savings plans at maturity

In recent years we have witnessed a dramatic rise in the popularity of tax-deductible registered retirement savings plans as an increasing number of Canadians have taken advantage of the tax saving associated with these do-it-yourself pension schemes. As a quid pro quo, the Income Tax Act restricts the manner in which the proceeds of an RRSP can be used to generate a retirement income. This note examines the annuity aspect of RRSPs and how the imposition of such a constraint on withdrawals affects the optimal control solution to the individual planholder's utility maximization problem.     

Labor market outcomes,savings accumulation,and return migration

In this paper, I examine the determinants of return migration from Germany for immigrants from four different source countries, and test the savings accumulation conjecture that is used to rationalize return migration decisions using both cross-country and time variation in purchasing power parity. The empirical results confirm the savings accumulation conjecture. Therefore, return migration can be seen as part of optimal life-cycle location choices in this context. I also examine how labor market outcomes influence return decisions. A key finding here is that unlike previous studies, which find a positive impact of unemployment on return migration, I find that the direction of the impact of unemployment changes by the spell length.     

Economic Viewpoint: The real wage debate

Why is unemployment so high in Britain? Is it because demand is too weak or is it because real wages are too high? Many participants in the debate are trying to insist that it must be one or the other. In practice it is perfectly sensible to believe that both causes are involved, so that a fall in unemployment will require both a rise in demand and a fall in real wages. In this Economic Viewpoint we discuss the economic analysis involved; we investigate some of the relevant evidence and we explore some policy options.     

An evaluation of the productive efficiency of savings and loans

A nonparametric linear programming approach is adopted to measure the productive efficiency of thrift financial institutions. The methodology is applied to a sample of California thrifts in 1989, yielding high mean efficiency scores. High efficiency scores correspond to high levels of operating efficiency. Estimation of a truncated regression model indicates that the major determinants of thrift efficiency are organization form, management style, risk, and firm size. Applying the methodology to a subset of thrifts from 1986 which had failed by 1989 shows technical inefficiency to be a significant indicator of a high probability of failure.     

Re-examination of the velocity-money growth variability debate

In this paper the author re-examines the money growth variability debate set forth by Milton Friedman. Six time periods are analyzed in the study. The pre-1979 period is found to be the only period which exhibits any evidence that money growth variability Granger-causes velocity.     

The great exchange rate debate after Argentina

In this paper I discuss in what way, if any, the collapse of Argentina’s experience with a currency board has affected the policy debate on the appropriate exchange rate regime in emerging and transition countries. More specifically, I deal with three issues: (1) I discuss some important aspects of the Argentine experience; (2) I provide a comparative evaluation of economic performance under strict dollarization; and (3) I analyze emerging countries’ experiences with flexible exchange rates, including the issue of “fear of floating.”     

Existence of optimal savings policies with imperfect information and non-convexities

This paper studies the existence of optimal savings paths in models with imperfect information. The returns on savings or on investment are uncertain and the models may have infinite horizons. The results yield existence when both utilities and the distributions of the random rates of return may vary through time. The cases studied here also include nontrivial non-convexities on both the utility functions (which are not necessarily bounded) and the feasible sets of consumption paths which may appear because of incomplete information, externalities or increasing returns. Existence is also established when there is learning about the value that determines the distribution of returns, updated according to previous realizations. The techniques use non-linear functional analysis. The results are obtained by proving compactness/continuity theorems of certain non-linear operators on Hilbert spaces and other function spaces, and are based on previous results in Chichilnisky (1977, 1981).     

Incentive effects of unemployment insurance savings accounts: Evidence from Chile

The paper, the first one to empirically examine whether individual accounts internalize the cost of unemployment, estimates the determinants of job finding rates of unemployment benefit recipients under the Chilean program. This is a unique, innovative program that combines social insurance, provided via solidarity funding, with self-insurance in the form of unemployment insurance savings accounts (UISAs). The paper shows that beneficiaries who use solidarity funding are less likely to exit unemployment in early months than those relying on UISAs only. Moreover, job finding rates are found to be positively correlated with pre-separation UISA balances among those that use solidarity funding, but are found to be uncorrelated with balances for those relying on UISAs only. While the findings are consistent with the effects expected under the internalization of unemployment costs via UISAs, they do not pinpoint unambiguously the causal link, as alternative mechanisms may be responsible for the observed correlations, particularly selection into the use of UISAs.     

浅析邮政储蓄客户资源管理

客户不仅是邮政储蓄的利润之源,也是发展之基。加强客户资源管理,不仅是竞争形势所迫,而且是生存发展所需。因此客户资源管理是客户经济时代下邮政储蓄发展的核心理念,认真研究邮政储蓄客户管理现状,并找出问题所在,针对问题制定切实可行的策略,培育并提升邮储客户忠诚度,对于提高邮储的市场竞争力是至关重要的。