盈余管理与审计意见的实证分析

盈余管理一直以来是会计实证研究的一个热点问题,本文主要从上市公司的盈余管理对审计意见的影响进行分析,研究发现,公司的盈余管理行为并未对审计意见的类型产生重要影响。但对于财务状况较差的上市公司而言,其盈余管理程度越高,其被出具非标准无保留审计意见的可能性越大。     

The economic returns to schooling for Italian men. An evaluation based on instrumental variables

We study the relationship between (log) hourly earnings and schooling for male household heads in Italy, using cross-sectional data from the 1993 and 1995 waves of the Bank of Italy (BI) survey on the income and wealth of Italian households. In line with international evidence, we find that OLS under-estimate the return to schooling. When the endogeneity of schooling is taken into account, the return to an additional year in school increases from 4.8% to 5.6%. This estimate is lower than the estimates tabulated by Card [Card, D., 1994. Earnings, Schooling and Ability Revisited. NBER Working Paper no. 4832.] for the United States. We also find evidence that this return increases with higher levels of educational attainment.     

The accuracy of long-term earnings forecasts in the electric utility industry

This paper examines the accuracy of various methods of forecasting long-term earnings growth for firms in the electric utility industry. In addition to a number of extrapolative techniques, Value Line analyst forecasts are also evaluated. Value Line analyst forecasts for a five-year time horizon are found to be superior to many of the extrapolative models. Among the extrapolative models examined, implied growth and historical book value per share growth rate models performed best. These results provide strong support for using Value Line growth forecasts in cost of capital estimates for electric utilities in the context of utility rate cases. Value Line forecast errors could be explained by changes in dividend payout ratios, the firm's regulatory environment and bond rating changes.     

Cross-sectional earnings risk and occupational sorting: The role of risk attitudes

This paper investigates to what extent individuals' risk preferences are correlated with the cross-sectional earnings risk of their occupation. We exploit data from the German Socio-Economic Panel, which contains a direct survey question about willingness to take risks that has been shown to be a behaviorally valid measure of risk aversion. As a measure of earnings risk, we use the cross-sectional variation in earnings that is left unexplained by human capital variables in Mincerian wage regressions. Our evidence shows that individuals with low willingness to take risks are more likely to work in occupations with low earnings risk. This pattern is found regardless of the level of occupation categories, region, gender and labor market experience.     

Influence of earnings management on forecasting corporate failure

This paper studies the relationship between corporate failure forecasting and earnings management variables. Using a new threshold model approach that separates samples into different regimes according to a threshold variable, the authors examine regimes to evaluate the prediction capacities of earnings management variables. By proposing this threshold model and applying it innovatively, this research reveals boundaries within which earnings management variables can yield superior corporate failure forecasting. The inclusion of earnings management variables in corporate failure models improves failure prediction capacities for firms that manipulate substantial earnings. Furthermore, an accruals-based variable improves predictions of failed firms, but the real activities-based variable improves predictions of non-failed firms. These findings highlight the importance of indicators of the magnitude of earnings management and the tools used to improve the performance of corporate failure models. The proposed model can determine the predictive power of particular explanatory variables to forecast corporate failure.     

Independent directors and earnings management: The moderating effects of controlling shareholders and the divergence of cash-flow and control rights

The research results on the suppressing effect of independent directors on earnings management are not consistent in existing literature. In addition, it has been argued that using financial statements provided by top management to investigate top management's earnings management is not appropriate. Therefore, the purpose of this study is twofold. First, we used external auditors (including the auditors of Taiwan Stock Exchange Corporation and the auditors of two Big Four accounting firms – Deloitte & Touche and KPMG in Taiwan) as respondents in order to obtain less biased data. Second, we investigate the moderating effects of controlling shareholders and the divergence of cash-flow and control rights on the relationship between independent directors and earnings management. The results show that both the existence of controlling shareholders and the divergence of cash-flow and control rights have significant suppressing effects on the relationship between independent directors and earnings management. Theoretical and practical implications are also discussed.     

The effects of Wal-Mart on local labor markets

We estimate the effects of Wal-Mart stores on county-level retail employment and earnings, accounting for endogeneity of the location and timing of Wal-Mart openings that most likely biases the evidence against finding adverse effects of Wal-Mart stores. We address the endogeneity problem using a natural instrumental variables approach that arises from the geographic and time pattern of the opening of Wal-Mart stores, which slowly spread out from the first stores in Arkansas. The employment results indicate that a Wal-Mart store opening reduces county-level retail employment by about 150 workers, implying that each Wal-Mart worker replaces approximately 1.4 retail workers. This represents a 2.7 percent reduction in average retail employment. The payroll results indicate that Wal-Mart store openings lead to declines in county-level retail earnings of about $1.4 million, or 1.5 percent. Of course, these effects occurred against a backdrop of rising retail employment, and only imply lower retail employment growth than would have occurred absent the effects of Wal-Mart.     

How entrenched managers beat earnings expectations before and after SOX

This study investigates the relationship between managerial entrenchment and how firms meet or beat earnings forecasts. It further examines whether this relationship changes before and after the Sarbanes–Oxley Act (SOX). We find that, in the pre-SOX era, entrenched managers meet or exceed analyst forecasts more often than their unentrenched counterparts when analysts’ initial forecasts are high. This is mainly due to the drop in analysts’ consensus rather than earnings management. These results nearly disappear in the post-SOX era.     

Executive compensation and earnings management under moral hazard

This paper analyzes executive compensation in a setting where managers may take a costly action to manipulate corporate performance, and whether managers do so is stochastic. We show that an increase in the possibility of manipulation actually calls for executive pay to be more responsive to reported performance. In addition, regulatory reforms that increase the cost involved in manipulation may lead to reduced pay-for-performance sensitivities. The time-series and cross-sectional variations of executive compensation lend support to our model.     

Women and poverty: Beyond earnings and welfare

Women’s poverty rates are higher than men’s, with single mothers having extremely high poverty rates. This article first briefly examines poverty measures and U.S. poverty rates among men and women. The author then describes and evaluates three categories of economic research on poverty: the lack or inadequacy of employment and earnings; family structure and welfare; and earnings capacities, care-giving responsibilities and employment. Finally the author assesses the policies to alleviate women’s poverty derived from these explanations.     

The slowdown in American educational attainment

Relative to those for high school graduates, lifetime earnings for college graduates are higher for more recent cohorts. At the same time, across successive cohorts born after 1950, there is a stagnation in the fraction of high school graduates that go on to complete a college degree. What explains this phenomenon? I formulate a life-cycle model of human capital accumulation in college and on the job, where successive cohorts decide whether or not to acquire a college degree as well as the quality of their college education. Cohorts differ by the sequence of rental price per unit of human capital they face and by the distribution of initial human capital across individuals. My model reproduces the observed pattern in college attainment for the 1920–1970 birth cohorts. The stagnation in college attainment is due to the decrease in the growth rate of the rental price per unit of human capital commencing in the 1970s. My model also generates about 80% of the increase in lifetime earnings for college graduates relative to those for high school graduates observed across cohorts.     

The effects of unemployment insurance on postunemployment earnings

There is surprisingly little research into the effects of unemployment insurance (UI) on postunemployment wage outcomes. Moreover, the few existing studies are sufficiently varied in their approach and conclusions that experienced observers have reached very different interpretations of their implications. We provide new estimates of the effect of UI on subsequent earnings, using data on workers displaced in the period 1983–1990. Our objective is to provide a systematic evaluation of the approaches used in the existing literature. We find some limited evidence of a favorable impact of UI on earnings, but only when we compare recipients with nonrecipients. Even in this case, our point estimates lie well below those reported in earlier studies that pointed to beneficial UI effects.     

Short sale constraints,dispersion of opinion,and stock overvaluation: Evidence from earnings announcements in China

Using a clean setting in China, we test the Miller (1977) hypothesis that stocks are overvalued in the presence of short sale constraints and dispersion of opinion as an extension of Berkman et al. (2009). We find that stocks with short sale constraints have significantly negative abnormal returns during earnings announcement periods, especially when investors have diverse opinions. These results are robust to alternative measures of abnormal returns and endogeneity concern. The findings help to explain the impact of short sale constraints on pricing efficiency and have important policy implications for relaxing restrictions on short selling and improving regular information disclosure in emerging markets.     

Job-related education and training: their impact on earnings

A worker's education and an appropriate job requiring education or training are significant determinants of earnings; qualifying training and training taken to improve skills play different roles in the workplace, but both contribute to greater earnings.     

Liquidity,earnings management,and stock expected returns

This paper examines the relationships among liquidity, earnings management, and stock expected returns by using a sample of Chinese listed firms to investigate 22,022 firm–year observations from 1998 to 2018. Our study reveals that an increase in stock liquidity is associated with a decrease in the degree of earnings management. This result is robust to the use of alternative measures when endogeneity concerns are controlled for. Moreover, the findings indicate that the stock liquidity component of earnings management is positively associated with future stock returns in Chinese firms. Our results reveal that the stock liquidity component of short-termism in managerial decisions plays a critical role in determining future stock returns.     

The Effects of IFRS Adoption on Observed Earnings Smoothness Properties: The Confounding Effects of Changes in Timely Gain and Loss Recognition

Ball and Shivakumar [(2006), The role of accruals in asymmetrically timely gain and loss recognition. Journal of Accounting Research, 44, 207–242] show that the observed smoothness of earnings (i.e. negative contemporaneous correlation between accruals and cash flows) is the joint product of the role of accruals in smoothing out transitory fluctuations in operating cash flows (noise reduction role) and the role of accruals in providing timely recognition of economic gains and losses (contracting role). These two roles of accruals have opposite effects on earnings smoothness properties. Using a regression framework that allows us to simultaneously consider both roles, we show that failing to control for changes in timely gain and loss recognition as firms shift to IFRS can lead to erroneous inferences regarding the effects of IFRS adoption on earnings smoothness, and consequently on researcher’ conclusions about how IFRS adoption has affected accounting quality. Our results are consistent with mandatory (2005) IFRS adoption resulting in a change in the contracting role rather than the noise reduction role (or smoothness role) of accruals. A decrease in timely loss recognition, an increase in timely gain recognition, and a net decrease in asymmetric timely loss recognition are what drives the change in observed smoothness properties of earnings around mandatory IFRS adoption.     

Differences in education and earnings across ethnic groups in Guatemala

Most of the research on ethnicity in Central America looks at two groups: indigenous and nonindigenous populations. While indigenous people are disadvantaged relative to the nonindigenous group, the many groups that make up the indigenous population are often times not very similar in terms of personal and group characteristics. But the differences within these groups are important for public policy. Ethnic groups' experience depends on many factors besides education and skill levels. These additional factors may include what has come to be known as “ethnic capital.” That is, the socioeconomic performance of today's workers depends not only on parental skills, but also on the average skills of the ethnic group in the parent's generation. In the United States, when data on ethnic groups is broken down, the black-white comparison may be too simple a characterization. It is argued here that the indigenous-nonindigenous comparison in Guatemala is too simple. Guatemala's household survey, which utilizes two questions to determine an individual's ethnicity (self-perception and language), is used here to examine the question of ethnicity in terms of schooling attainment, earnings and the returns to schooling. The following hypothesis is tested: do higher levels of schooling correspond to higher returns to schooling? Dividing the indigenous sample into the main ethnic groups produces widely different and dramatic results in terms of schooling, earnings and the returns to schooling. Higher levels of schooling correspond to higher returns to schooling by ethnic group. Thus there may be a need to target interventions appropriately to the specific ethnic group in question.     

The religious factor in private education

We quantify the religious factor in private education in the United States by calibrating a political economy model of school choice—among public, private-nonsectarian and subsidized religious schools—in which parents differ in their incomes and in their preferences for religious education. This shows strong latent demand for religious schooling, conditioned on current subsidized tuition levels in parochial schools, which is suppressed by the need to “pay twice” for private education. Applying the results of the calibration to gauge the effect of means-tested school voucher programs on religious and nonsectarian private enrollment, we find that when the amount of the voucher is relatively small, including subsidized religious schools in such programs is necessary for providing low-income families effective access to private education.     

The distinctive effects of earnings determinants across different job levels

This study proposes a structural model of earnings by integrating the arguments of gender discrimination, human capital, and segmented labour markets, three of the most popular perspectives for explaining variations in income. Our analysis makes use of an effective sample of 5,005 employees in Taiwan. The results show that in low-level jobs, gender plays an important role in earnings determination; but that in higher-level jobs, human capital replaces gender as a good predictor of earnings. We therefore argue that job level is a critical determinant of earnings disparity, especially in interaction with differences in gender and human capital investment.     

Measuring efficiency in education: The influence of imprecision and variability in data on DEA estimates

Many studies devoted to efficiency performance evaluation in the education sector are based on measures of central tendency at school level as, for example, the average values of students belonging to the same school. Although this is a common and accepted way of summarizing data from the original observations (students), it is not less true that this approach neglects the existing dispersion of data, which may become a serious problem if variability across schools is high. Additionally, imprecision may arise when experts on each evaluated subject select the battery of questions, with different levels of difficulty, which will be the base for the final questionnaires completed by students. This paper uses data from US students and schools participating in PISA (Programme for International Student Assessment) 2015 to illustrate that schools' efficiency measures based on aggregate data and imprecision may reflect an inaccurate picture of their performance if they are compared to measures estimated accounting for broader information provided by all students of the same school. In order to operationalize our approach, we resort to Fuzzy Data Envelopment Analysis. This methodology allows us to deal with the notion of fuzziness in some variables such as the socio-economic status of students or test scores. Our results indicate that the estimated measures of performance obtained with the fuzzy DEA approach are highly correlated with those calculated with traditional DEA models. However, we find some relevant divergences in the identification of efficient units when we account for data dispersion and vagueness.