Changes in human nutrition and US exports

Changes in US nutrition could increase the availability of grains for world food use. This study examines such changes by means of a programming model which allows an optimal inter-regional allocation of grains while simultaneous shifts are made in consumer diets. The three alternatives examined include use of added US production potential for wheat production and exports, a substitution of 25% soy protein for meat and reducing the animal protein intake by 25%. Sizable increases in food exports could be made under each of the three alternatives. Of course, institutional means would need to be created to facilitate these shifts.     

The Soviet burden on the world food system : Challenge and response

Through its disruptive entry into western food markets and its non —participation in global efforts at food policy management the Soviet Union has placed a burden upon the world food system. Dr Paarlberg examines this burden and the US response which has been to seek better information on Soviet agriculture, impose ad hoc controls on food sales and to enter a bilateral agreement in 1975. Three other suggested responses —grain reserves held without Soviet participation, a US wheat board, and a North American export cartel —are discussed. The author concludes that the Soviet burden is decreasing and is best lifted by increasing the free supply available for export. In future. Soviet reliance on food imports may draw it into a greater dependence on the non-socialist world.     

US food stamp policy — political considerations

The author analyses the political factors which influence reform of the US food stamp programme. After discussing the reasons for the failure of the Ford Administration's proposals he examines the Carter Administration's efforts and discusses future alternatives to the food stamp programme.     

You are what (and where) you eat: Capturing food away from home in welfare measures

Consumption of food away from home is rapidly growing across the developing world, and will continue to do so as GDP per person grows and food systems evolve. Surprisingly, the majority of household surveys have not kept up with its pace and still collect limited information on it. The implications for poverty and inequality measurement are far from clear, and the direction of the impact cannot be established a priori. This paper exploits rich data on food away from home collected as part of the National Household Survey in Peru, to shed light on the extent to which welfare measures differ depending on whether food away from home is accounted for or not. Peru is a relevant context, with the average Peruvian household spending over a quarter of their food budget on food away from home since 2010. The analysis indicates that failure to account for this consumption has important implications for poverty and inequality measures as well as the understanding of who the poor are. First, accounting for food away from home results in extreme poverty rates that are 18 percent higher and moderate poverty rates that are 16 percent lower. These results are also consistent, in fact more pronounced, with poverty gap and severity measures. Second, consumption inequality measured by the Gini coefficient decreases by 1.3 points when food away from home is included – a significant reduction. Finally, the inclusion of food away from home results in a reclassification of households across poor/non-poor status – 20 percent of the poor are different, resulting in small but significant differences in the profile of the poor in dimensions such as demographics, education, and labor market characteristics. Taken together, the results indicate that a serious rethinking of how to deal with the consumption of food away from home in measuring well-being is urgently needed to properly estimate and understand poverty around the world.     

The US food stamp programme

Food stamps are a policy topic of considerable current interest in the USA. In addition, the US programme offers other countries a working example of this particular approach to food assistance and nutrition improvement. This article reviews the history, performance, fundamentals, current reform measures, and future alternatives of the programme. Although food stamps have not solved the nutrition problem in the USA, they have served reasonably well as a food assistance and income supplement programme. If comprehensive welfare reform is enacted in the USA, a food stamp programme designed to maximize its nutritional impact is advocated.     

World food prospects to the year 2000

Declining rates of growth are indicated for total food demand as well as import demand. Real world prices are likely to continue on their downward trend. Increased attention to agricultural development will help ensure that average food consumption levels will rise in all developing regions except Sub- Saharan Africa. Market instability remains a problem but developing countries are now better protected against it. The dark side of the picture: chronic undernutrition among the poorest of the poor is not likely to be eradicated in this century.     

The three US food policies: An ideological interpretation

Historically, and notably so since 1933, three ideologies have been evident, and in conflict, in the farmfood policies of the USA. The gradual transformation of US agriculture since World War II into an agribusiness industry, and into the dominant world food exporter, has necessitated the modernising of these three ideologies. How the new food politics of the Carter Administration will differ from those of the Nixon-Ford Administration is of worldwide concern. Whether the new food policy ‘agenda’ will be aggressively committed to the development of a neo-Jeffersonian food ideology will be a major US political issue in 1977.     

Reflections on food crises past

World food crises are relatively rare events, occurring roughly three times a century. But they also tend to be regular events, every three decades or so, suggesting there is an underlying cyclical cause. If so, far-sighted donor and government investments in raising agricultural productivity, and policies on behalf of stable food production and prices, might go a long way to preventing food crises in the future. Preventing food crises rather than trying to cope after the fact with their impact on the poor is the only way to avoid substantial, perhaps permanent, damage to the welfare of poor households. Lessons from the world food crises in 1972/73 and in 2007/08, especially lessons from how the world rice market functioned, point the way toward improved food policy management at national and international levels in the future.     

Does food security matter for transition in Arab countries?

Expectations are high that transition in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, and Yemen will bring about more freedom, justice, and economic opportunities. However, experiences from other world regions show that countries in transition are at high risk of entering conflicts, which often come at large economic, social and political costs. In order to identify options on how conflict may be prevented in Arab transition countries, this paper assesses the key global drivers of conflicts based on a dataset from 1960 to 2010 and improved cross-country regression techniques. Results show that unlike in other studies where per capita incomes, inequality, and poor governance, among other factors, emerge as the major determinants of conflict, food security at macro and household-levels emerges as the main cause of conflicts in the Arab World. The high exposure of Arab countries to global food price variations proves to be an important source of vulnerability for a peaceful Arab transition. If history is also a guide to the future, improving food security is not only important for improving the lives of rural and urban people; it is also likely to be the key for a peaceful transition. The paper concludes with a set of policy options on how to improve food security at macro and household-levels, including safeguard mechanisms against excessive price volatility, export-led and pro-poor growth, the creation/expansion of social safety nets and targeted nutrition programs.     

Food security implications of staple food substitution in Sahelian West Africa

Low-income households in Sahelian West Africa face multiple shocks that risk compressing their already-low food consumption levels. This paper develops a multi-market simulation model to evaluate the impact of common production and world-price shocks on food consumption of vulnerable groups in Sahelian West Africa. Empirical analysis confirms that poor households bear the brunt of ensuing consumption risks, particularly in closed markets, where trade barriers restrict imports, and the poor find themselves in a bidding war with richer consumers for limited food supplies. In the absence of trade, a drought that reduces domestic rainfed cereal production by 20% would compress already low calorie consumption of the rural poor by as much as 15%, four times as much as other household groups. Conversely, a 50% spike in world rice prices hits the urban poor hardest, compressing calorie consumption by up to 8%.Policy responses need to focus on two basic mechanisms that can help to moderate this pressure – consumer substitution among staple foods and trade. Immediately south of the Sahel, coastal West African countries enjoy higher rainfall, dual rainy seasons, more stable staple food production based on root crops (cassava and yams) as well as frequent double cropping of maize.Our simulation results suggest that regional trade in maize, yams and cassava-based prepared foods like gari and attieké could fill over one-third of the consumption shortfall resulting from a major drought in the Sahel. Increasing substitutability across starchy staples, for example through expansion of maize, cassava and sorghum-based convenience foods, would further moderate consumption pressure by expanding the array of food alternatives and hence supply responses available during periods of stress.     

Climatic change and food production

Small changes in climate can have a disproportionate influence on the availability of food when, as now, world reserves are low. Dr Gribbin reviews evidence for climatic change and concludes that the climate is likely to be much more variable in future than it has been in the middle decades of this century. Longer periods of unfavourable weather in some of the major agricultural areas are expected. Prudence dictates that world grain stocks should be built up as an insurance against an increasingly probable series of poor harvests.     

Food transfers to Asia: A Delphi forecast of required levels

The authors obtained the views of a number of agricultural economists on the desirability and feasibility of future food transfers from rich to poor countries. The consensus view which emerged was that food aid will still be needed in the 1980s but that practical institutional arrangements for it are more likely to come from the political than the economic arena.     

Food policies and prospects: Insights from global modelling

The author describes the application to international food problems of a simulation model of the world economy developed by the Systems Analysis Research Unit (SARU) of the UK Department of the Environment. He examines the role of food trade under alternative future conditions of abundance and adversity. Comparisons are drawn with some of the conclusions of other world models. The results highlight the potential of food trade as a contributor to higher income and consumption in poor regions, notably South and Southeast Asia.     

天然气开启能源新时代——第25届世界天然气大会综述

2012年6月4-8日,第25届世界天然气大会在马来西亚首都吉隆坡举行,会议以“天然气:可持续发展的未来全球能源增长点”为主题,交流总结了2009-2012年以来天然气领域的发展现状和未来趋势.认为天然气逐步成为一次能源结构中不可替代的清洁能源;非常规天然气开发将改变世界天然气供需格局,成为推动天然气发展的重要因素;未来20年LNG需求将增加一倍多,北美LNG出口将影响世界贸易格局;全球天然气价格将以区域性价格体系为主,近期难以形成统一气价;天然气消费需求的增长及能源消费结构的调整加大了对储气库的需求;俄罗斯推行天然气出口新策略,纳布科管道项目遏阻;人力资源竞争激烈,人才是天然气工业可持续发展的重要驱动力 中国的天然气发展势头迅猛,市场空间广阔,将为世界天然气市场的发展注入新的活力.     

Can market power really be estimated?

In a previous paper in this Review, Hyde and Perloff ask the question, “Can Market Power be Estimated?” using the “structural model” or two proposed alternatives. They find that none of the three methods produce consistent, meaningful results in the food and beverage industries and that simulations suggest great sensitivity of results to model misspecification. This paper offers an explanation for these disappointing results. The difficulty is that the structural model (and its proposed alternatives) is based on an overly-ambitious estimating form that over-simplifies the diversity and true complexity of oligopoly pricing. By neglecting accounting data on costs and by arbitrarily relying on an assumption that outputs are set by subtracting a constant proportion of the difference between Price and Marginal Revenue, the “structural model” and proposed alternatives try to fit an elegant form to a messy world with predictably disappointing results.     

The domestic determinants of US food aid policy

This study presents empirical analysis of US food aid flows as evidence of the strong and stable relationship between commodity producer interests and policy-makers during a 35 yr period. Whereas most foreign aid research centers on the distribution of aid among recipient countries, this study focuses on the determinants of the supply of food aid made available by the donor country. I conduct time series regression analysis of total US food aid shipments, as well as separate analyses of two key commodities, wheat and rice. Several key findings emerge: (1) There is a consistent relationship between commodity producer interests and US food aid policy. (2) There is a strong relationship between commodity stocks and food aid shipments, especially during the years when stocks were the greatest. (3) US food aid policy-making is highly incremental. These findings, taken together with the lack of a strong relationship between grain production in poor countries and US food aid shipments, belie official rhetoric emphasizing the growing humanitarian objectives of the program over time. In the case of rice, I find a strong relationship between aid flows and US involvement in the Vietnam War.     

The food crisis and environmental conservation in Africa

In spite of good rains in Africa in 1985, 30-35 million people suffered the effects of famine. Much of Africa is still dependent on food aid. The main causes of insufficient food production are land degradation--desertification--and high population growth. Distribution of the US $2.9 billion in food and non-food aid has been hampered by transport and logistical problems. The major challenge for 1986 is non-food support. Only US $460 million (15.3%) of non-food aid had been received as of March. Country profiles of Angola, Chad, Ethiopia, Mozambique, Somalia, Sudan, Lesotho, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Zambia show a pattern of high food assistance needs and displaced refugee populations. The 1st 6 of the group suffer from civil strife. There is some good news; e.g. Niger, which is embarking on agressive agricultural development, and Tanzania, which has enjoyed bumper crops, but the crisis is clearly far from over. Few African Governments have been willing to face the population problem; population in the area will probably continue to increase at 3% yearly. It is shown that desertification: reducing the biological potential of the land through over-exploitation, animal husbandry, and deforestation, is a wordwide problem particularly acute in Africa. Lost production totals $26 billion annually. Straightforward cost-benefit analysis of projects to halt or reverse the problem does not adequately take factors such as human attachment to the land into account. Unfortunately halting desertification does not receive the attention it should receive from donor agencies. Investment goes towards high-return projects, e.g. power dams; sugar factories, when a more careful study reveals that returns from afforestations are much more long-term. There has been increased consciousness of the long-term benefits of dryland rehabilitation, which will hopefully impact policy in the future. But since desertification is a self-accelerating process, there is a need for very rapid action.     

Wheat in the world food economy: Increasing role in developing countries

Wheat is the oldest and most important of the cereal grains in world food supply. In the last two decades the role of wheat in the world food economy has increased substantially, especially in the developing world. This article describes and analyses the role of wheat and highlights and interprets changes that have occurred in the last two decades of rapid change. The authors analyse, in turn, trends in production, consumption, trade and prices with special emphasis on the developing countries.¹ Finally, the authors speculate on how these trends are likely to be effected by future events.     

Halon replacement: The law and the options

Halons 1301 and 1211 have been employed widely for over 20 years in a broad array of fire and explosion protection applications. These chemicals, however, have been determined to be environmentally unfriendly due to their high ozone depleting potentials. International treaty, national laws and local ordinances have severely limited the future use of these chemicals. Production in the United States will likely come to an effective halt by 1994. A number of alternative chemicals have been suggested as potential replacements for the halons both in total flooding and streaming agent applications. A comparison of the several viable halon alternatives is made including performance, cost and availability. Areas where new applications data are required are noted.     

Likely effects on obesity from proposed changes to the US food stamp program

Some have suggested that the US food stamp program (FSP) should be revised with a view to combating obesity among the poor. In this paper, we assess the likely impacts of allowing FSP participants to purchase only healthy foods when using food stamps. Our results indicate that FSP participants would probably increase their consumption of healthy food, but the implications for their purchases of unhealthy food are not clear. Market-wide consequences are even less clear, because changing what may be purchased using food stamps would lead to higher prices for healthy foods and lower prices for unhealthy foods and these price effects would feed back into consumer decisions, with adverse effects on consumption patterns of both participants and non-participants in the FSP. In addition, more restrictive rules on the use of food stamps would discourage participation in the FSP. We conclude that, while reforming the FSP may indeed to lead to better diets among participants, it is likely to be an ineffective and inefficient instrument for bringing about desired nutritional outcomes unless accompanied by additional policy instruments.