Perspectives on roadmaps: how organizations talk about the future

Roadmaps, in the traditional sense, are concerned mostly with space and position. In the way that industrial and public research institutions use the term, though, roadmaps reveal the time dimension of technological progress. The many and increasing applications of roadmaps have generated confusion about what they are for and what they accomplish amid the many tools and techniques of managing technology. Roadmapping is itself a trend, while it seeks to exploit the trends underlying technology. The practice has side effects, biases, and behavioral consequences that are often not visible to practitioners, and until now, were unexamined by researchers. This study provides an organizational perspective on roadmapping as currently practiced, presents the experience of several organizations that have implemented it, and evaluates the results. Using a case‐based, exploratory method the author addresses several practical questions, such as: What are the effects of roadmapping? How are they measured? Is roadmapping always appropriate? How would an organization know if it was roadmapping well? What are the various kinds of roadmaps and how do they relate to each other? In addition, some more general lessons about organizational behavior emerge from the case data. Cases were selected from several large industrial firms participating in a research consortium exploring the modern challenges and tools of technology management. These firms granted extensive access to the research team and actively participated in the analysis, demonstrating a unique and productive model of research collaboration between academic researchers and business practitioners. Central to an understanding of roadmapping behavior is noticing the tension between its dual nature. Roadmaps are both forecasts of what is possible or likely to happen, as well as plans that articulate a course of action. They are, in a sense, personal to their authors. Roadmaps can be used to align organizations in times of predictable change, but have limited insight into disruptive change. The most influential roadmaps originate as responses to perceived threats, and link the technical storyline to organizational and personal concerns. For those who would implement the technique, the article suggests practical ways to use these and other findings and offers basic definitions and vital questions for future research.     

Forecasting business needs in the telephone market

The last decade has seen substantial changes in the environment in which U.S. telephone companies operate. As regulated monopolies, telephone companies are experiencing effective competition in several areas of their operations. Additionally the consumerist movement has made regulatory agencies more aware of the requirements of the numerous markets served by the utilities. With “good” telephone service available at reasonable cost throughout the United States, users and telephone companies are more aware of secondary product attributes such as style (decorator sets) and auxiliary features (the ability to place one caller on hold and answer another call). These changes reflect the evolution of the marketing function within the telephone companies and the increasing use of marketing research for product line expansion and sales forecasting. What has caused this shifting perspective on the function of marketing? How have the utilities responded? The following discussion deals with these questions as well as the ways in which marketing research has aided the telephone company in forecasting sales to business customers.     

Limitations on the growth of computer-communication services

The author examines current and potential limitations to the growth of computer communications in the USA in relation to user learning costs; regulatory restrictions on rate of return and regulatory policy concerning depreciation allowances; the structure of computer-communication networks; and regulatory limitations on the provision of services.     

The mixed blessing of a deregulatory endpoint for the public switched telephone network

Receiving authority to dismantle the wireline public switched telephone network (PSTN) will deliver a mixture of financial benefits and costs to incumbent carriers and also jeopardize longstanding legislative and regulatory goals seeking ubiquitous, affordable and fully interconnected networks. Even if incumbent carriers continue to provide basic telephone services via wireless facilities, they will benefit from substantial relaxation of common carriage duties, no longer having to serve as the carrier of last resort and having the opportunity to decide whether and where to provide service. On the other hand, incumbent carriers may have underestimated the substantial financial and marketplace advantages they also will likely lose in the deregulatory process. Legislators and policy makers also may have underestimated the impact of no longer having the ability to impose common carrier mandates that require carriers to interconnect so that end users have complete access to network services regardless of location.This paper will identify the potential problems resulting from prospective decisions by National Regulatory Authorities (NRAs), such as the United States Federal Communications Commission (FCC), to grant authority for telecommunications service providers to discontinue PSTN services. The paper also will consider whether in the absence of common carrier duties, private carriers providing telephone services, including Voice over the Internet Protocol (VoIP), voluntarily will agree to interconnect their networks. The paper will examine three recent carrier interconnection issues with an eye toward assessing whether a largely unregulated marketplace will create incentives for carriers to interconnect networks so that consumers will have ubiquitous access to PSTN replacement and other broadband services.The paper concludes that private carrier interconnection models and information service regulatory oversight may not solve all disputes, or promote universal service public policy goals. Recent Internet interconnection and television program carriage disputes involving major players such as Comcast, Level 3, Fox, Cablevision and Google point to the possibility of increasingly contentious negotiations that could result in balkanized telecommunications networks with at least temporary blockages to desired content and services by some consumers.     

Local competition for telephone services

A policy discussion and overview of the development and scope of local exchange competition in U.S. Telecommunications markets is presented. The primary focus is on access and cable competition. In the future, we will see policies which encourage cable to enter telephone services, telephone companies to develop a video dialtone, and transportation networks which allow interexchange carriers to bypass the access charges of the local network. Regulatory policy needs to manage these competitive changes so that there is parity between the various service providers.     

Ultra-fast broadband investment and adoption: A survey

In recent years, and in line with EC plans, telecom operators have been facing the need to deploy high-speed, fiber-based infrastructure. What is the socio-economic impact of these new investments on growth and local development? What are their effects on the labor market outcomes, in terms of firm productivity and entrepreneurship? What is the role of regulation and competition in spurring the deployment and the adoption of ultra-fast broadband networks? In this survey, we review the existing literature on ultra-fast, fiber-based broadband network, devoting special attention to the results and to the methodology used in the most recent studies.     

A layered United States Universal Service Fund for an everything-over-IP world

Support through the United States Federal Universal Service Fund for high-cost areas has been principally defined in terms of telephone service. Fund growth due to increases in wireless lines and implicit support for broadband infrastructure has created an untenable situation, and fundamental reform is expected. The cause underlying this growth is convergence between the telephone network, wireless networks, the Internet, and cable networks. This convergence will pose additional serious long-term challenges to the fund. This paper proposes a restructuring of the high-cost funds based on a layered model. Both contributions and distributions are focused on network infrastructure, without distinction between voice and broadband. The proposal uses a new definition of communication services to guarantee technology neutrality, and includes service area reform and cost efficiency measures. This layered approach repositions the fund for future converged networks.     

The long-run diffusion and techno-economic performance of national telephone networks: a case study of Ireland, 1922–1998

The telephone is one of the most widely used technologies in the advanced industrial economies, typically achieving a household penetration rate in excess of 90%. Over the course of this century, the plain old telephone system (POTS) has become a critical techno-social infrastructure for all sorts of economic, social and personal interactions. The question arises as to what has driven the widespread diffusion of the telephone? How can we describe the adoption of telephony as a core element in economic and social affairs in modern societies? In particular, how can we account for the great disparities in the rate and pace of the diffusion patterns of POTS, taking account of different national and historical contexts? This paper critically interrogates influential universal models or `theory-led’ explanations of the diffusion of telephone systems, especially their capacity to account for the empirically observable national variations. The authors test these models with respect to the historical trajectory of telecommunications development in Ireland, drawing on unique time-series data related to the actual patterns of telephone adoption, use and utility. The authors also re-assess the extent to which existing diffusion models throw some light on aspects of observable diffusion processes and patterns. A key conclusion from the approach adopted here is that in themselves, abstract deductive models are at best unsatisfactory. Whilst a combination of such `universal’ factors derived from more deductive models may be useful in elucidating different parts of the story, they are not sufficiently nuanced or adequate to describe or frame the complex stories of different national historical experiences. With the Irish case study we have attempted to illustrate the value of a historical and empirically based understanding of the socio-economic, political or institutional factors which have served to shape the development of telecommunications services and policy in Ireland.     

Communication for a sustainable society

What would be a sustainable society in the year 2000? What communication facilities would it require? Alternatively, what changes in communications could produce a sustainable society? The prevailing scenarios of an ‘information society’ and a ‘wired world’ seem to have followed the second question. They have not defined a sustainable society, but assumed, like the post-industrial theorists, Bell and Kahn, that it would have to be a projection of the main features of post-war social developments. Making this assumption, they have little else to explore but a sort of technical determinism: how new means of communication will transform the factory, the office, the home, etc. The question they have posed is; which developments in communications technology will best enable us to realize, in the shortest time and at least cost, the developmental trends inherent in our societies? The trends most commonly noted are those of maximizing income, maximizing leisure time, maximizing individual choice, and maximizing individual security.     

The emerging oligopoly of pay-TV in the USA

The pay-television industry in the USA has been developing very rapidly in the past five years and is providing network quality alternatives to the mass taste programming of commercial television. However, the industry has been developing along lines very similar to the early history of radio in the USA with the emergence of strong distributor networks, restrictive affiliation contracts, and wide-spread vertical integration across all stages of production. History and economic efficiencies suggest that the result will be a strong oligopoly market structure. The proper public policy, then, is to insure that the unavoidable degree of concentration is not greater than that needed for efficiency reasons.     

Managing in complex business networks

For many years, research and management thinking has focused on understanding business relationships and networks. Now, the focus is shifting to managing business relationships and networks. This new approach focus poses two questions. Since networks are loosely coupled systems, to what extent are business networks manageable? Furthermore, how can a firm's ability to manage a network be characterized and measured? This paper addresses these two questions by synthesizing the current state of knowledge on management issues in networks and the contribution to managerial abilities in complex relationships. The discussion leads to a set of propositions describing the abilities firms will need to successfully manage complex business networks.     

Universal service and disabled people

The EU regulatory framework enacted 25 May 2011 has the objective to provide functionally equal access to telecommunication services for disabled persons. What are the rules, who are the target groups, and what obstacles do they face when using various telecommunication services? And what arrangements do exist in a selected group of six EU Member States to remove these obstacles? Recommendations include the introduction of a more market-oriented approach, independent of specific networks.     

集群供应链网络的联结模式与共治框架

集群供应链作为一类新型网络组织形式,是依托于产业集群又突破产业集群地域限制的供应链网络的集合体,集群供应链网络治理问题对集群竞争优势创造与集群持续发展有着重要作用。本文首先阐明了供应链网络与集群供应链网络的区别,进而对集群供应链网络的结构及类型进行了分析,在此基础上研究了集群供应链网络的联结模式,提出集群供应链网络共治的参与者、集群供应链网络共治框架体系及各参与主体在集群供应链共治中的作用分工,以期对集群供应链网络的治理活动起到借鉴作用。     

Technology, entrepreneurship and company performance in textile and clothing SMEs

This article examines the relationship between technology, entrepreneurial human capital and company performance in a sample of textile and clothing SMEs in Great Britain. General conclusions suggest that firms with a computer network are more likely to have a formal management team. Networked firms appear to be larger: smaller companies are making increasing use of computer networks.     

The jobs Americans hold

How many Americans hold which jobs? What careers have futures? Grouped here are all the jobs employing more than 150,000 people--they include about 90% of U.S. workers--and the growth that the Bureau of Labor Statistics calculates for each.     

Bridging ties: a source of firm heterogeneity in competitive capabilities

What explains differences in firms’ abilities to acquire competitive capabilities? In this paper we propose that a firm’s embeddedness in a network of ties is an important source of variation in the acquisition of competitive capabilities. We argue that firms in geographical clusters that maintain networks rich in bridging ties and sustain ties to regional institutions are well‐positioned to access new information, ideas, and opportunities. Hypotheses based on these ideas were tested on a stratified random sample of 227 job shop manufacturers located in the Midwest United States. Data were gathered using a mailed questionnaire. Results from structural equation modeling broadly support the embeddedness hypotheses and suggest a number of insights about the link between firms’ networks and the acquisition of competitive capabilities. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

开放平台与所有权平台的竞争:网络效应与策略选择

开放平台（标准）的出现给所有权平台带来很大冲击，也给经济学家提出了挑战．这种免费的资源提供的动机何在？它对创新活动有何影响？它会如何影响市场竞争的结果？本文提供了一个分析开放平台和所有权平台（双寡）竞争的理论模型，在考虑网络效应以及所有权平台拥有者的兼容策略选择等情形下。分析了不同平台的目标和均衡策略选择。在此基础上。我们还拓展分析了社会对不同产业结构（开放＋所有权VS所有权＋所有权）的选择激励．结果发现不同的参数设定会得到不同的结论。     

Expanding mobile wireless capacity: The challenges presented by technology and economics

As demand for mobile broadband services continues to explode, mobile wireless networks must expand greatly their capacities. This paper describes and quantifies the economic and technical challenges associated with deepening wireless networks to meet this growing demand. Methods of capacity expansion divide into three general categories: the deployment of more radio spectrum; more intensive geographic reuse of spectrum; and increasing the throughput capacity of each MHz of spectrum within a given geographic area. The paper describes these several basic methods to deepen mobile wireless capacity. It goes on to measure the contribution of each of these methods to historical capacity growth within U.S. networks. The paper then describes the capabilities of 4G LTE wireless technology, and further innovations off of it, to further improve network capacity. These capacity expansion capabilities of LTE-Advanced along with traditional spectrum reuse are quantified and compared to forecasts of future demand to evaluate the ability of U.S. networks to match future demand. Without significantly increasing current spectrum allocations by 560 MHz over the 2014–2022 period, the presented model suggests that U.S. wireless capacity expansion will be inadequate to accommodate expected demand growth. This conclusion is in contrast to claims that the U.S. faces no spectrum shortage.     

Cautious optimism at the World Food Council

How does the World Food Council assess the changes that have taken place on the food scene since its establishment nine years ago? What is the outlook for structural reform in the agricultural and food sectors? What are their thoughts on the new hunger lobby, and on the growing movement which questions the value of much official aid? How does the Council see the prospects for the next decade? Robin Sharp went to Rome to find out.     

Entrepreneurial knowledge spillovers: discovering opportunities through understanding mediated spatial relationships

In recent years, increased attention has been directed toward the formation of new ventures from new knowledge that is created by incumbent firms. This process focuses on a firm-centric approach that considers entrepreneurial opportunities from a spin-off and an endogenous perspective. Differently, what kind of Knowledge Spillovers (KSs) can influence the development of a start-up from an exogenous perspective? Considering this point of view, in what ways can knowledge be transferred? What kind of spatial filter can influence the travel of knowledge?Analyzing the KSs that sustain the growth of the start-up with a collaborative approach, the Geppetto case study concerns the main dyadic relationships developed by an Italian start- up thanks to its relationship with an Incubator. As these findings demonstrate, network entrepreneurial KSs are activated by “generating relationship” between the Incubator and its main business partners, which then are used in the “recipient relationship”. In this latter instance, the business partners of the Incubator become partners of the start–up thereby improving its growth. In particular this transfer of knowledge occurs in a relational space between heterogeneous actors that are characterized by business relational proximity.