The Economic Outlook for London

After a period of rapid growth in the first half of the year, the UK economy hit a softer patch in the summer. This article looks at whether this softer patch threatens the recovery in London from the significant shake-out of jobs in 2000–2002, which had previously looked to be underway. It concludes that fewer net new jobs are likely to be created in London this year than we expected six months ago, but that employment growth is still expected to exceed the UK average in 2005 and 2006.     

The economic outlook for London

London's economy clearly entered a new growth phase in 2005, supported by strong recovery in financial markets. This improvement in economic performance has been especially marked within the Central London Boroughs, but with some significant variation between them. This article argues that this marks a return to London-led growth for the UK, becoming more noticeable moving into the medium term once the short-term impacts of last year's terrorist attacks have disappeared.     

The Economic Outlook for London

The strength of London's economy has been very apparent over the past year, after a period when the potential for recovery was clear but there was less hard evidence. Financial services have clearly played a large part in driving the acceleration in London's growth, with stock markets, M&A activity and profitability all strong over the last 18 months. London's growth has also been bolstered by strong international immigration. Our latest forecasts show a modest slowdown in London's economy next year from a robust 3.9% in 2006, in response to higher UK interest rates and weaker growth in both the US and the Eurozone. But employment in London is still forecast to rise by 1.2% in 2007, with GDP expected to grow by 2.9% in London compared with 2.3% in the UK as whole.     

Do policymakers need to cool the UK housing market?

The combination of government schemes and a recovery in the wider economy underpinned a robust pickup in housing transactions and house prices through 2013. But there is no evidence of a housing bubble across most of the country. Across the majority of regions prices are still below previous peaks in nominal terms and much lower still in real terms. Meanwhile measures of affordability and indebtedness are in a much better state than they were prior to the financial crisis. The exception is London, where supply shortages and strong demand have pushed both the price‐to‐income ratio and average income multiple back to previous highs. An improving macroeconomic backdrop and ongoing support from Help to Buy should ensure that demand continues to strengthen, supporting further growth in transactions. There has been a strong supply response over the past nine months and this should continue, which will help to keep a lid on price growth. Divergent macroeconomic prospects across the regions will lead to a wide variation in house price growth, with London expected to lead the way. We do not see a case for changing the terms of Help to Buy, particularly given that the most likely source of a bubble is London, where the impact of Help to Buy is likely to be small. In our view, the average income multiple is crucial and macro prudential tools should be used if it continues to rise above previous peaks in any regions. The most likely cause of a bubble at the national level would be an inadequate supply response. Alongside its policies to support demand, the government should implement a series of measures aimed at increasing supply, including planning reform, and it could also consider using its low borrowing costs to fund public sector house building.     

Do Market Participants Learn? The Case of the Budapest Stock Exchange

In the paper we consider one of the faster growing Central European emerging markets: the Budapest Stock Exchange (BSE), in order to see whether the market becomes more weak-form efficient over time. The Hungarian exchange is selected because it is the oldest stock exchange operating in the region and, in 1995, it was the first Central European exchange admitted by the London Stock Exchange as a properly regulated stock exchange. As an econometric tool for comparative analysis, we use a Test for Evolving Efficiency (TEE). In a comparison of nine stocks and the market index (BUX) we found that the BSE becomes more mature but the process is surprisingly slow.     

THE VERY RAPID INCREASE OF JAPANESE TOURISTS ABROAD AND THE ROLE OF NATIONAL WEALTH

The strong performance of the Japanese economy, rising stock and land prices in Japan, as well as the strong yen, have prompted Japanese to travel abroad in ever increasing numbers in recent years. Despite several obstacles against growth, such as limited vacation time for employees of Japanese corporations, relatively expensive airline tickets, capacity limitations of international airports in Japan, booming resort development in Japan itself, and imposed constraints on Japanese direct investment abroad, Japanese travelers abroad, the majority of whom are tourists, increased from less than five million in 1985 to almost 10 million in 1989. The traditional demand function based on income and price may not explain all of the growth of Japanese overseas tourism, since some of the increase in Japanese travelers may stem from increases in expected future income based on increased wealth. This wealth effect hypothesis is tested using a log-linear regression model. It is found that wealth is a better predictor of overseas tourism levels than income. The effect of wealth increases on overseas tourism is also found to have a lag time of about one year. For this reason, it is proposed that the slowing in the Japanese economy this year will negatively impact Japanese overseas tourism next year.     

The Economic Outlook for London

The recent economic slowdown was very visible in London, with the capital leading the UK into the downturn — employment peaked in London in the first quarter of 2001, a year earlier than in the rest of the country. Now that recovery in the UK economy appears to be well-established, this article considers how this is reflected in improved prospects for the London economy.     

Activity

As we begin 2014 the growth outlook is much improved compared with a year ago. In part this reflects some sizeable upward revisions to previously released data, but it is also a function of the stronger than expected pickup in activity through 2013. The economy grew by 0.8% in both Q2 and Q3 and business survey data point to a similar rate of growth in Q4. This would take GDP growth for 2013 as a whole to 1.9%, which would be the strongest since 2007…     

重庆市区域物流与区域经济互动机理研究

中央直辖市的设立,开辟了重庆发展的新天地。区域物流在促进地区经济发展的过程中起着举足轻重的作用。为了验证重庆区域物流与区域经济增长的互动关系,作者以统计分析为基础,建立数量模型来分析重庆区域物流与区域经济的内在联系,最后证实重庆区域物流可以促进该区域经济的发展;另一方面随着经济不断增长和对物流固定资产投资的不断增加,也可以加快区域物流产值的迅速提升。     

香港与世界级金融中心的差距及发展优势

我国经济规模正在迅速扩大,越来越需要世界级金融中心的支撑.香港目前是排在伦敦和纽约之后第二梯队的国际金融中心;认为香港金融业的成长具有优越的条件,分析了香港与伦敦和纽约的差距及向世界级金融中心迈进的有利条件.     

Economic Viewpoint: Economic Models and Economic Forecasting: Ptolemaic or Copernican?

Economic forecasters have come in for a lot of criticism in recent months. But this is not new. The failure to predict the boom in 1988 and ensuing inflation and balance of payments problems led to some serious re-examination of the structure of the main macroeconometric models in the UK. The speed with which the UK economy moved into sharp recession in the second half of 1990- also appeared to catch most forecasters on the hop. This Briefing Paper is not directly about forecasting; it is about macroeconometric models. However, forecasting provides by far the most extensive use of these models. Not all macroeconomic forecasters use a formal econometric model - some City economists find a spreadsheet more than adequate - but those that do find that they are an invaluable aid to clear thinking and provide an effective way of filtering all of the information that is available, in one form or another, about the economy. This paper was originally intended to provide a retrospective review of the development of UK macro-models since the late 1970s, coinciding broadly with my period at London Business School. However, it became clear that there was a need to argue more generally in favour of macro-modelling, given the numerous assaults that this activity has sustained over the last 15 years. I want to demonstrate that the conduct of research in this area - at the very least in the UK - has been, and continues to be, a progressive research strategy in the sense in which philosophers of science use this term. I believe that macro-modellers, because they have an obligation to forecast and to make the forecast public, are closer to how theoretical constructs in economics conflict with the observation of economic events, and provide a more robust testing ground for economic theories than the relatively narrow - though very important - confines of single equation statistical testing, that dominate academic journals. This should not mean that every new theoretical idea should be expected to be able to survive immediately the rigours of testing within an existing macro-model. One of the attractions of recent developments in macroeconomic theory has been an explicit attempt to seek to try to reconcile macroeconomics with micro-economic reasoning and to derive macroeconomic principles from how rational, maximizing individuals can be expected to behave in a market economy. There is always a need periodically to re-examine the basic postulates of any area of economics, especially one such as macroeconomics, which provides the basis for the conduct of national and international economic policy, and for providing explanations for economic cycles. Macro-econometric model building is a worthwhile exercise because it confronts theoretical models of how the macro-economy is supposed to work with the hard lessons of experience. The use of these models for forecasting is therefore crucial to their continued growth and development.     

WORLD OUTLOOK

The slowdown in the world economy, which followed last year's oil price collapse and which awakened fears that the world was on the threshold of a new recession, is coming to an end. Output growth in the first half of the year was stronger than we had previously expected and a gentle acceleration is forecast over the next eighteen months. In contrast to this improvement on output, there has been little or no progress on the major problems of the world economy, including the USA's twin structural deficits, budget and trade, and the international debt crisis. Moreover, with the US facing elections in just over a year's time, no economic initiative is likely until 1989. Hence the prevailing view that the US and world economies will "muddle through" for another year. But in 1989 a new US administration is likely to face up to the trade and budget imbalances and many US forecasters believe that the required fiscal tightening will lead to recession. As we explain below, this is not our view and the forecast embodies steady 3 per cent growth in the world economy over the medium term. Inflation has now passed the low point brought about by the oil price collapse. On our forecast of output, inflation is expected to remain close to its present underlying rate of 4 per cent.     

Executive Summary

Our assessment of the outlook for the UK economy over the next two years has become slightly more cautious in the wake of the additional fiscal tightening announced in the November Budget. Although we had anticipated tax and public spending measures of the right magnitude in 1994/95, the Budget was more severe in 1995/96 and beyond than we had expected. We have scaled back our estimates of growth for 1995 and 1996 accordingly. On a more positive note, we expect the outlook for inflation to be better than we indicated last October. The mid-1990s are' likely to see a period of sustained low inflation which has not been seen since the 1960s. The government's target measure - RPI excluding mortgage interest - is not expected to test the 4 per cent target ceiling though it is stuck in the 3-3.5 per cent range for most of the forecast period. Despite expecting slower growth, we are now more optimistic about unemployment, which we expect to fall below 2.4 million in 1997. We now believe that increased labour market flexibility should allow the economy to grow on a lower real wage and productivity growth path, at least while unemployment remains so high. However, whether this improved performance would allow the UK to sustain an unemployment of below 2 million without a serious resurgence of inflation is still open to question.     

The spatial and temporal diffusion of house prices in the UK

This paper provides a method for the analysis of the spatial and temporal diffusion of shocks in a dynamic system. We use changes in real house prices within the UK economy at the level of regions to illustrate its use. Adjustment to shocks involves both a region specific and a spatial effect. Shocks to a dominant region - London - are propagated contemporaneously and spatially to other regions. They in turn impact on other regions with a delay. We allow for lagged effects to echo back to the dominant region. London in turn is influenced by international developments through its link to New York and other financial centers. It is shown that New York house prices have a direct effect on London house prices. We analyse the effect of shocks using generalised spatio-temporal impulse responses. These highlight the diffusion of shocks both over time (as with the conventional impulse responses) and over space.     

Regulating Financial Services: How Severe are the Dangers?

The Financial Services Act has been variously criticised for obstructing competition and increasing operating costs for the producers of financial services in Britain. Robert R. Davis, Commissioner at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in Washington DC, argues that there are 'public-goods' considerations to justify the imposition of the Act, and that its internal guarantees will check the growth of regulation. Len Ross, Principal Lecturer in Economics at the Polytechnic of Central London, maintains his earlier charge that the Act will do immense damage to British trade in financial services.     

How sustainable is the Japanese recovery?

For nearly two years the Japanese economy has grown significantly faster than commentators expected, raising the question of whether the country has finally broken out of its long economic malaise. This article by Simon Knapp examines recent developments to see whether this recovery is sustainable. It argues that over the last year the recovery has broadened out beyond merely the export sector, although there are good reasons to believe that growth as measured by GDP has been overstated and that many serious structural problems remain. Business investment has surged on the back of rising profitability and an improved labour market has helped lift consumer confidence. At the same time the paper recognises the importance of China's boom in stimulating the Japanese economy over the last two years, and estimates that this factor may have boosted the level of GDP by between 1 to 2%. With Chinese growth now moderating to more sustainable levels, export growth will slow over the next year or so. However, domestic demand should now be strong enough, in the absence of major external shocks, to generate GDP growth of around 1.5 to 2% per annum in the medium term; a respectable figure given the country's falling population.     

Kornai's soft budget constraint and the shortage phenomenon: A criticism and restatement

Concluding Remarks In this paper we have sought to modify Kornai's analysis of the shortage phenomenon. One point and two modifications are suggested. The point is that firms' budget softness in real terms, while generally probably higher under socialism than capitalism, is always limited enough for any economies still to remain very much productive. One modification is that, in the theory of the shortage phenomenon, the key operational variable is not the degree of budget softness, provided it is not too high as to make the economy unproductive, but a quite different concept of the degree of budget flexibility. Our example of the Leyland-type economy and references to Yugoslav economy were intended to make this proposition evident. In this and any other soft-budget economy the degree of softness is, instead, linked with inefficiency, both static and dynamic. The other modification is that while the household does have a hard budget constraint and the firm has a soft one, sufficiently high prices for consumer goods would nevertheless be able to abolish any consumer goods' shortages.An important topic which has been alluded to, but not discussed in this paper, is Kornai's suggestion that there may operate a trade-off between the rate of unemployment and the degree of goods shortages. This topic is related to a number of issues, one of which is the validity of equating shortage economy with resource-constrained economy. To indicate a potential problem, it may be noted—as Kornai himself does—that an abstract, perfectly competitive economy is free of shortage (as well as of unemployment), and yet it is resource-constrained (as well as demand-constrained). Actual market-based economies are from time to time also resource-constrained, but the point is that the distance to full employment is, in those economies, related to the inflation rate (the Phillips curve) rather than to the incidence of shortage (Kornai's suggestion), especially if the upward price flexibility is high. However, these are matters which may be better left for separate treatment.This paper was written when the author was Visiting Professor at the Department of Economics, the University of Pennsylvania. Its ideas were presented earlier, at seminars at the London School of Economics and the University of Oxford. The paper benefited much from detailed critical comments from Wlodzimierz Brus of Wolfson College, Oxford, Philip Hanson of the University of Birmingham, UK, Cezary Jozefiak of Lodz University, Poland, János Kornai, Kazimierz Laski of Linz University, Austria, Herbert Levine of the University of Pennsylvania, and Peter Wiles of the London School of Economics.     

Forecast Summary

Output is expected lo grow steadily for the next four years, continuing the recovery which has been in progress since I981. The underlying rate of growth is forecast to slow down next year as the world economy also slows, though because of the miners' strike actual recorded growth next year will be higher than this. However, throughout the period output grows more rapidly than its historical trend. This growth is accompanied by steady increases in labour productivity, and unemployment is forecast to rise. With fiscal and monetary policy following the guidelines set by the Medium-Term Financial Strategy, inflation stays at about its current level or falls slightly.     

Income convergence prospects in Europe: Assessing the role of human capital dynamics

We employ income projection models based on human capital dynamics in order to assess quantitatively the role that educational improvements are expected to play as a driver of future income convergence in Europe. We concentrate on income convergence dynamics between emerging economies in Central and Eastern Europe and Western European countries during the next 50 years. Our results indicate that improvements in human capital contribute significantly to the income convergence potential of European emerging economies. Using realistic scenarios, we quantify the effect that future human capital investment paths are expected to have in terms of speeding up the income convergence process in the region. The income projection exercise shows that the returns to education in terms of income convergence in Europe could be sizeable, although it may take relatively long for the poorer economies of the region to rip the growth benefits.     

加息政策分析

央行自2003年10月26日加息以来,加息政策在哪些方面对中国经济产生了影响,当前还存在着哪些影响加息政策传导的障碍,以及采取哪些配套措施加大加息对经济的影响。本文拟对此问题提出讨论,并设法寻求有效的配套措施,以促进中国的宏观政策手段向市场化转变。