中国东、中、西部之间耕地保护协调——土地效率理论存在的问题

研究目的:分析土地效率理论(以效率分配农地非农化指标理论)存在的问题,研究地区间耕地保护协调的方法。研究方法:文献法,理论分析法及计量经济方法。研究结果:农地非农化指标的分配不应该仅根据效率差异决定,而应综合考虑各生产要素之间的关系。研究结论:(1)如果在地区间实行非农化指标转移,补偿机制是否建立依赖于两地区资金对土地边际技术替代率的关系;(2)以用地效率来指导非农化指标分配的思路能够提高两地区总体的产出水平,但两地区之间公平会受到损害;(3)农地非农化指标转移等类似政策制定应充分考虑制度成本和交易成本。     

INSURANCE MILK

Where the production of milk for sale on the fresh milk market at 'controlled' prices is subject to nontransferable quotas the holders of quota who wish to maximise profits have a motive to maintain production above the quota level to insure against variations in demand for over-quota sales and yield. The concept of 'production of milk as insurance' is used to clarify the way in which such behaviour gives rise to social costs which could be avoided in a competitive market, by a permissive attitude to arbitrage, or where quotas can be traded.     

A MODEL OF THE COMMON AGRICULTURAL POLICY

Several efforts have been made since 1980 to estimate the costs and benefits of the European Community's Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). This paper summarises the approach and method adopted in developing one such effort, which aims to provide results at country, commodity and interest group level both for the CAP as a whole, and for changes in it. Economic analysis of the effects of price changes in the CAP is carried out with the use of direct and crossprice elasticities of supply and demand for sixteen major commodities, using base levels of production, consumption, and gross trade flows in each member state, along with rest-of-world data. A number of CAP instruments, such as subsidies, levies, quotas and ‘green’ exchange rates, are built into the calculations and can be varied, along with support prices, to produce new situations in domestic markets and in world price levels. Both financial (budgetary) and welfare (economic surplus) effects of such exogenous price changes can be calculated. Certain policy changes, such as a move to ‘free’ markets, involve endogenous calculation of equilibrium prices. Trend projections subject to a priori constraints are used to produce results for years beyond the extent of data currently available. The types of model run commonly carried out are discussed, along with several strategic judgments that became necessary in carrying out the research. Finally, questions concerning the future development and use of the model are addressed.     

Optimal Production Tax and Quota under Time Consistent Trade Policies

This article investigates the policy active importers' incentives and welfare implications of using production and trade policies in a dynamic framework where production decisions occur before consumption decisions. We show that the equilibrium for production taxes and quotas are not equivalent, and that each equilibrium depends on whether the trade policy instruments are tariffs or quotas. Under import quotas, the equilibrium policy is to tax domestic production, whereas under a tariff either a production tax or subsidy may be optimal. We also show that a collective agreement to ban production policies is likely to be welfare-improving in many circumstances.     

Reply

CAP Reform in the Dairy Sector: Remove Export Subsidies and Retain Milk Quota–Counterpoints and Reply Counterpoint–David Harvey. The authors argue for retention of dairy quotas, elimination of all subsidies and continued import taxes. The argument that quotas will increase market prices fails to recognise that demand is likely to become more price elastic, that quotas will not allow EU producers to benefit from an expanding domestic market, and that any domestic price gain will be capitalised into the cost structure of producers. It is more sensible to eliminate quotas completely, possibly with compensation of existing quota owners. Counterpoint–Gunnar Breustedt and Uricb Koester. We argue that their reference system is misleading, that they underrate the welfare losses of the EU quota system and that some a priori assumptions concerning the external effects of milk production are debatable. Abolishing the quota in a world with no export subsidies would increase EU welfare the most. Reply–Zohra Bouamra‐Mechemache and Vincent Requillart. The comments develop two main lines of argument. First, those related to an ideal world. But we are far from this ideal situation: the EU has world market power and there are positive and negative externalities in milk production. Full liberalisation, moreover, would generate social costs so the key question is: what is the best way to implement a gradual liberalisation? A second set of arguments is related to the indirect costs and benefits of dairy quotas. In our model indirect quota costs would be lowered and milk production in the Less Favoured Areas would be supported. We maintain our conclusion that it could be rational to keep a quantity instrument to regulate the EU dairy sector if price instruments are removed. Réforme de la PAC laitière: supprimer les subventions et garder les quotas ‐ contrepoint et réponses David Harvey en contrepoint Les auteurs roudraient conserver les quotas laitiers, éliminer les subventions, et garder les droits de douane. Mais l'argument selon lequel les quotas vont contribuer a accroître le prix sur le marché intérieur néglige le fait que la demande deviendra plus élastique, que les quotas ne permettront pas aux producteurs européens de bénéficier de l'expansion de la demande interne, et que tout accroissement de prix intérieur sera capitalisé dans les prix des facteurs fixes. Il est done plus intelligent de complètement éliminer les quotas, le cas échéant en offrant des compensations à ceux qui, à l'heure actuelle, détiennent des quotas. Gunnar Breustedt et Ulrich Koester en contrepoint Le système de référence des auteurs est trompeur. lis sous estiment les pertes de bien‐être qui sont engenderées par le système de quotas européens. Certaines de leurs hypothèses sur les effets externes de la production laitière sont discutables. La meilleure façon d' accroître le bien‐être en Europe serait d' abolir les quotas dans un monde sans subventions à l' xportation. Zohra Bouhamra et Vincent Requillart en reponse On nous oppose deux ordres d'objections: D'abord celles qui concemeraient un monde ideal. Mais nous sommes bien loin d'un monde idéal: de fait, l'Union européenne dispose bien d'un certain pouvoir sur le marché mondial et il existe bien des externalités, tantôt positives et tantot negatives, dans la production de lait. De plus, la liberalisation totale engendrerait des couts sociaux. La question est done plutot de savoir comment preparer une liberalisation progressive. La seconde série d'argurnents a trait aux coûts et aux bénéfices indirects liés aux quotas laitiers. Dans notre modèle, les coûts indirects des quotas seraient plus faibles et la production laitiére serait soutenue dans les zones les moins favorisées. Nous maintenons notre conclusion qu'il pourrait etre rationnel, si Ton vient a supprimer les interventions sur les prix, de conserver un instrument quantitatif de régulation de la production laitière européenne. Reform der GAP auf dem Milchsektor: Abschaffung von Exportsubventionen und Aufrechterhaltung von Milchquoten– Kontrapunkte und Antwort Kontrapunkt–David Harvey. Die Autoren sprechen sich für die Beibehakung von Milchquoten, die Abschaffung aller Subventionen und weiter bestehende Einfuhrzölle aus. Das Argument, die Quoten würden die Marktpreise erhöhen, übersieht, dass die Nachfrage wahrscheinlich preiselastischer wird, dass die Quoten es den EU‐Erzeugern nicht gestatten, Nutzen aus einem wachsenden Binnenmarkt zu Ziehen, und dass jede Preiserhöhung im Inland in der Kostenstruktur der Erzeuger kapitalisiert wird. Es ist sinnvoller, die Quoten vollständig abzuschaffen und möglicherweise die Quoteneigner zu Entschädigen. Kontrapunkt–Gunnar Breustedt und Ulrich Koester. Wir vertreten den Standpunkt, dass ihr Referenzsystem irrefuhrend ist, dass sie die Wohlfahrtsverluste des EU‐Quotensystems unterbewerten und dass einige a priori‐Annahmen in Hinblick auf die externen Effekte der Milchproduktion umstritten sind. Die Abschaffung der Quoten bei gleichzeitigem weltweiten Verzicht auf Exportsubventionen würde die Wohlfahrt in der EU am stärksten erhöhen. Antwort–Zohra Bouamra‐Mechemache und Vincent Réquillart. Die Kommentare entwickeln zwei grundsätzlicheArgumentationsrickungen. Die erste bezieht sich auf eine ideale Welt. Von dieser idealen Situation sind wir hingegen weit entfernt: Die EU besitzt Marktmacht auf dem Weltmarkt, und die Milcherzeugung ist durch positive und negative externe Effekte gekennzeichnet. Zudem würde eine vollständige Liberalisierung zu gesamtwirtschaftlichen Kosten führen, daher lautet die Schlüsselfrage: Wie kann eine schrittweise Liberalisierung am besten umgesetzt werden? Die zweite Argumentationsrichtung bezieht sich auf die indirekten Kosten und den indirekten Nutzen von Milchquoten. In unserem Modell würden die indirekten Kosten der Quoten verringert und die Milcherzeugung in den benachteiligten Gebteten subventioniert. Wir erhalten unsere Schlussfolgerung aufrecht, dass es rational ware, ein Instrument zur Mengenregulierung im EU‐Milchsektor beizubehalten, falls die Preisinstrumente abgeschafft werden.     

Impacts of WTO restrictions on subsidized EU sugar exports

The study evaluates the impact of World Trade Organization (WTO) restrictions on the European Union (EU) sugar sector and the world sugar market. A small reduction in production quotas would be sufficient to satisfy the export subsidy limitations of the Uruguay Round agreement. Complete elimination of export subsidies by 2005 would require either a 10% reduction in production quotas or the combination of an 8% reduction in quotas and an 11% reduction in intervention prices. Higher world prices resulting from reduced EU exports would result in increased production of unsubsidized C‐sugar, with different impacts across EU member countries explained by differences in institutional pricing arrangements and marginal production costs.     

ESTIMATING SOCIAL COSTS OF ALTERNATIVE SUGAR POLICIES IN SOUTH AFRICA

Social costs of a single-price policy, a two-tier price scheme and of ethanol production in the South African Sugar Industry are estimated. Results indicate that lower social costs are associated with the recently introduced two-tier price scheme compared with the single-price scheme which it replaced. Making quotas transferable under the two-tier price scheme would reduce social costs even further. Ethanol production at present would add to social costs as its replacement value as fuel is less than the cost of production including opportunity costs. Results are obtained from a regional linear programming model that incorporates negative sloping demand functions for products, positive labour supply functions and variance-covariance risk matrices. A limited substitution in the demand specification is also included.     

THE IMPACT OF QUOTAS ON THE SOUTHERN BLUEFIN TUNA FISHERY

Recent increases in the harvests of southern bluefin tuna, particularly by Australian fishermen, have led to the recognition that the fishery is overexploited. A model is developed to examine the effects that quotas on Australian and Japanese harvesting would have on economic welfare and on stock levels. Recursive quadratic programming is used to simulate harvesting decisions through time, with and without the imposition of quotas.     

Appraising Alternatives for Allocating and Cost Recovery for Irrigation Water in Egypt

Alternative approaches to allocating and recovering costs for water on Egyptian farms are proposed and evaluated in accordance with the societal objectives of allocative efficiency, equity of income distribution and cost recovery. A linear programming model of a study area in Egypt's northern Delta predicts farmers' response to the proposed cost-sharing instruments over a range of water supply conditions. Transactions costs for each charging instrument are estimated and incorporated into the allocative. efficiency analysis. Flat land charges, supplemented by water quotas in the event of increasing water scarcity, best achieve societal objectives in the current and prospective Egyptian situation. Volumetric charging instruments were judged to be somewhat less desirable, due to higher tangible and intangible costs of implementation. The results highlight the importance of transactions costs, the degree of water scarcity and other governmental revenue raising policies in determining an appropriate charging mechanism.     

The tragedy of the commons: property rights and markets as solutions to resource and environmental problems

In one way or another, all environmental and natural resource problems associated with overexploitation or under provision of public goods, arise from incompletely defined and enforced property rights. As a result private decision makers do not consider or internalize social benefits and costs in their production or investment actions. The gap between private and social net returns results in externalities – harmful effects on third parties: overfishing, excessive air pollution, unwarranted extraction or diversion of ground or surface water, extreme depletion of oil and gas reservoirs. These situations are all examples of the 'The Tragedy of the Commons'. In this paper, I consider options for mitigating the losses of open access: common or group property regimes, government tax and regulation policy, more formal private property rights. I briefly summarize the problems and advantages of each option and describe why there has been move toward rights-based instruments in recent years: ITQ (individual transferable quotas), tradable emission permits, and private water rights. Introductions to the papers in the special issue follow.     

土地利用总体规划建设用地指标区域动态分配问题研究

研究目的:优化土地利用总体规划建设用地指标的区域配置。研究方法:对比分析法,多因素综合分析法和主成分分析法。研究结论:提出了土地利用总体规划建设用地指标区域动态分配的思路,通过对土地利用的综合效益进行及时监测和评价,动态调整建设用地指标,增强了建设用地指标区域分配的合理性,有助于发挥土地利用的比较优势,提高土地资源的区域配置效率,激励地方政府高效利用土地资源,实现区域土地利用总体福利的最大化。     

A MODIFIED LEONTIEF MODEL FOR ANALYSING THE IMPACT OF MILK QUOTAS ON THE WIDER ECONOMY

The paper estimates the impact of milk quotas on the UK economy using a modified SAM-based Leontief model. Since milk quotas involve the control of gross output as opposed to final demand, it is argued that the traditional form of a Leontief model needs to be adapted so as to make the output of dairy producers exogenous to the system. Modifications to both the demand-driven and supply-driven Leontief model are suggested thus allowing the estimation of both the backward and forward linkage effects of quotas. The results suggest that, in total, the backward linkage effects of milk quotas are more significant than the forward linkage effects, with the magnitude of the latter constrained by the pattern of milk marketing. Taking both types of linkages into account, it is estimated that the potential 3 per cent further reduction in quota levels being discussed in the context of CAP reform threatens a total of 11,000 jobs in the economy.     

Price Ceilings on Milk Production Quota Values: Future or Folly?

Since the inception of supply management in Canada during the 1970s, milk production quota has been used to regulate output and participation in the dairy industry. In recent years, milk quota values have increased dramatically, almost tripling in value since the mid 1980s. This led to the Dairy Farmers of Ontario intervening on the milk production quota exchange on two occasions: first, in November 2006 with a progressive transfer assessment and then in July 2009, replacing the former policy with a firm price ceiling—fixing the unit price of quota at $25,000. These policies represent a significant redistribution of economic benefits from milk producers selling their quota to those remaining in the industry. The objective of this study is to first explore the reasons for the increase in production quota values; and second, to assess the welfare and distributional effects of each of the two quota policy schemes. Our results suggest that the increase in quota values were driven by basic economic factors and that the efficiency losses from intervention in the quota exchange are nontrivial. We conclude by suggesting there are several alternative policy options that could minimize efficiency losses while moderating the escalation in quota values. Depuis la mise en place du système de gestion de l’offre au Canada dans les années 1970, les quotas laitiers sont utilisés pour régulariser la production et la participation dans l’industrie laitière. Au cours des dernières années, la valeur des quotas laitiers a fait un bond considérable et a pratiquement triplé depuis le milieu des années 1980. Cette situation a amené la Dairy Farmers of Ontario à intervenir à deux reprises dans le système d’échange de quotas laitiers : en novembre 2006, en imposant l’établissement d’un transfert progressif et en juillet 2009, en remplaçant la politique précédente par l’établissement d’un prix plafond ferme fixéà 25 000 $. Ces politiques permettent une importante redistribution des avantages économiques lorsque des producteurs de lait vendent leurs quotas à des producteurs qui demeurent dans le secteur. La présente étude visait d’abord à examiner les raisons qui sous‐tendent l’augmentation de la valeur des quotas de production et ensuite àévaluer le bien‐être et les effets distributifs de chaque plan de quotas. Les résultats de notre étude autorisent à penser que l’augmentation de la valeur des quotas a été motivée par des facteurs économiques fondamentaux et que les pertes d’efficacité découlant de l’intervention dans les échanges de quotas n’étaient pas sans importance. En conclusion, nous estimons qu’il existe plusieurs politiques de rechange qui pourraient minimiser les pertes d’efficacité tout en modérant l’escalade de la valeur des quotas.     

Estimating the benefits of recreation-oriented management in state-owned commercial forests in Finland: A choice experiment

As forestlands provide a variety of environmental services, the management of forest resources is a matter of public concern. In the present case of state-owned commercial forests in Finland, legislation requires specific management practices to enhance recreational benefits free of charge to the public. This choice experiment considers Finnish people's valuation of the recreation-oriented management of state-owned commercial forests to evaluate whether the recreational benefits produced justify the related loss of profits from timber sales. We focus on three management attributes: scenic buffer zones along lakes and rivers, habitats for game birds, and the quality of scenery as reflected by the frequency of clear-cut areas along hiking trails. Marginal willingness-to-pay (WTP) effects for the attributes are estimated with random parameters logit models specified in the WTP space, while preference-space models are used to estimate in physical terms the attribute levels that maximize the benefits to the public. Despite regional differences in preferences, people in all parts of Finland valued the current recreation-oriented management of state-owned commercial forests considerably. Nationwide, the aggregate benefits of recreation-enhancing management clearly exceeded the estimated opportunity costs. The most preferred levels of management attributes were slightly above the current levels, suggesting an increase in the provision of recreational services when not considering the associated costs.     

Effectiveness of harvest strategies in achieving multiple management objectives in a multispecies fishery

Fisheries management is characterised by multiple objectives, some of which may be complementary, while others may require trade‐offs between outcomes. Balancing these objectives is made more complex in the case of multispecies and multigear fisheries. In this paper, we develop a bioeconomic model that captures the key elements of such a fishery to test a range of potential harvest strategies to provide insights into how economic target reference points could lead to both desirable and undesirable management outcomes (e.g. discards). The model is developed as a long‐run optimisation model to identify target reference points to achieve multispecies maximum economic yield, and a dynamic recursive optimisation model, which includes more realistic representation of fishers’ behaviour, such as discards and trading of under‐caught species quotas. The potential economic, social and ecological impacts are evaluated using data envelopment analysis (DEA). The results suggest that the use of proxy target reference points can result in short‐term economic benefits at the cost of slower stock recovery and higher discarding. Limiting the number of species subject to quota controls may also prove beneficial in multispecies fisheries, while ensuring quota markets are efficient is likely to produce benefits irrespective of the harvest strategy adopted.     

Equivalence of Input Quotas and Input Charges under Asymmetric Information in Agri‐environmental Schemes

A model of adverse selection and moral hazard in agri‐environmental schemes is developed based on the input quota mechanism of Moxey et al. (Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 50, (1999) pp. 187–202) and Ozanne et al. (European Review of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 28, (2001) pp. 329–347), rather than the input charge mechanism of White (Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 53, (2002) pp. 353–360), but the variable fine of the latter rather than the fixed fine assumed by Ozanne et al. (European Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 28, (2001) pp. 329–347) is used. Incentive‐compatible contracts, including the optimal probabilities of detection (and, therefore, monitoring frequencies and costs) for more and less efficient farmers, are identified. It is shown that the input charge and input quota approaches lead to identical outcomes – in terms of abatement levels, compensation payments, monitoring costs and probabilities of detection – confirming the equivalence of input quotas and input charges under asymmetric information. It is also shown that the optimal contracts are independent of the risk preferences of farmers with regard to being caught cheating.     

The International Coffee Agreement: Economics of the Nonmember Market

The provisions of the 1983 International Coffee Agreement (ICA) and proposed reforms to eliminate exports to nonmember importers at discounted prices are analyzed. The discounted sales were a key issue that led to the breakdown of negotiations for a new ICA and the end of export quotas under the current agreement. A model of the world coffee market incorporating the policy response of exporting countries is used to analyze the welfare implications of the different alternatives. The model shows that the price discounts result from the structure of the current agreement (the existence of nonmember importing countries) and allocation of export quotas for the member market, which does not reflect export capacity. Welfare calculations based on the model show that several small exporters derive substantial benefits from nonmember market sales. These exporters will not be willing to comply with an arrangement to allocate quotas for the nonmember market unless they receive a large share of this market. However, the large exporters appear determined to retain their market share. The results of the model predict that, unless importers no longer insist on eliminating the price discounts, a new agreement is unlikely.     

Valuing the benefits and costs of improved food safety and nutrition

Assuring the quality of food products, especially their safety and nutrition levels, is an increasing focus for governments, companies, and international trade bodies. In choosing quality assurance programs, public and private decision-makers must assess the benefits and costs of expected improvements in food safety and nutrition. This article discusses methods for measuring these benefits and costs as well as how these valuations are related to the mix of voluntary and mandatory quality management systems used in particular countries or trading blocs. These relationships are illustrated by a short case study of safety assurance systems for meat and poultry products.     

论渔业自然资源特性对ITQ制度交易成本的影响

本文在阐述我国海洋捕捞渔业自然资源特性的基础上,通过剖析它对个体可转让配额制度交易成本的影响,提出相应建议:我国单一鱼种产量低的特征会使得渔民在遵守该制度时的守法者成本上升;海洋生物组成复杂多样的特征会使当局确定总可捕量的信息搜寻成本、分配配额的决策成本和执行成本上升,会使渔民因兼捕性增强而需要为完成交易多付固定交易成本、信息搜寻成本和讨价还价成本;资源的地域差异性较大一方面将增加专用资产的投资而增加交易成本,另一方面将降低区域间配额分配难度而降低交易成本;海域的宽阔和海岸带广延性将导致当局的监督成本增加.     

An Integrated Epidemiological-Economic Analysis of Foot and Mouth Disease: Applications to the Southern Cone of South America

Animal disease outbreaks impose significant economic costs that evolve over space and time, but few studies have explicitly modeled their temporal and spatial impacts. Using an integrated epidemiological-economic model, this article demonstrates a methodology that captures the dynamic and spatial effects of animal disease. The model is applied to foot-and-mouth disease in the Southern Cone of South America. The results demonstrate the benefits of spatially sensitive policies in which certain regions within the Southern Cone employ different, coordinated interventions. Further, they highlight policy relevant differences between the dominant short-run and long-run control options.