美国经济危机原因及其影响的新解释——基于经济长波、货币供给与国际竞争的视角

美国经济危机是其新长波运行到顶后以朱格拉周期形式表现的一次调整,美国经济由此将步入缓慢增长的动荡时期。为满足长波扩张对巨额货币供给的需要,20世纪80年代美国金融体系进行了以金融创新为主要内容的重构,由此支撑了美国经济长达20多年的快速增长,并极大提升了美国的国际地位。但随着长波的演进,不仅内部的扩张动力逐渐衰竭,而且外部的相对竞争力也在快速下降,实体经济对新增货币的吸纳能力减弱,由此金融创新深化所创造的巨大货币供给就只能转向次贷和高杠杆的金融衍生产品。当实体经济与虚拟经济的背离达到一定程度时,经济危机也就不可避免。美国经济危机最终转化为世界经济危机,则是因为各主要国家之间的经济周期出现了高度的同步性,是它们之间相互叠加共振的结果。     

Technology-driven forecasts, the Phillips curve, and monetary policy-making

The relationship between unemployment and the inflation rate is nonlinear and negative within the shorter-run timespan of business cycles, but positive in the longer run, the two-generation period in which techno-economic systems advance from innovation to market saturation. Monetary policymaking in the United States utilizes forecasts based upon the shorter term relationship, but these forecasts may be confounded by the countervailing long-wave relationship. This study presents a model that includes both the short- and long-term relationships and shows how inclusion of long-wave considerations changes preferred policy choices.     

The new millennium and leadership: evolution or entropy?

Health care in the new millennium will be different. We have a wonderful opportunity to live in a new paradigm of leadership and management that opens up myriad possibilities for innovations in health care and leadership. If leaders stand still and don't quickly adapt to the new demands, they will be killed as leaders in this new millennium. The next 20 years are only for those who can act and adapt quickly.     

From managed care to "financed care"

Paying for health care in the new millennium may require fundamental restructuring of how costs are managed to avoid rationing and a government takeover.     

Falling Rate of Profit and Mass of Profits: A Note

This paper shows that the mass of profits may be strictly increasing even when the rate of profit is strictly decreasing. Thus, a recent ‘long-wave version’ of the falling rate of profit theory of crisis is called into question.     

The Asymmetric path of Economic Long Waves

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the pattern and behavior of Economic Long Waves over time, using the long-wave chronologies of two driving economies, the USA and the UK. The statistical evidence seems in general to support the hypothesis that Long Waves are not symmetric and their regularity is based on longer periods of upwave than downwave (contraction-skewed), which implies a negative asymmetric path of these waves over time.     

The state of technological and social change: Impressions

As the long-wave theory has predicted, we are seeing a period of consolidation in which the pace of radical technological innovation seems exceeded by the pace of social change. Peter Drucker's dictum, that technology changes faster than society, appears now to have been reversed. The article offers research and anecdotal support for these assertions, linking them to specific trends and trend interactions, including patents and intellectual property litigation, new product development, and politics and revolution.     

技术创新理论述评

归纳综述了中西方学者的技术创新理论，主要有创新动力论；模仿论与创新扩散模式论；市场结构论与企业规模论；创新与经济增长“逆相位”论；创新源泉论；创新选择论；技术创新长波论等。     

The effects of heavily indebted poor countries initiative (HIPC) on millennium development goals (MDGs) for education

In this study, we employ the difference in difference approach to estimate the impact of heavily indebted poor countries initiative on Millennium Development Goals for education in Africa. Using the World Bank data for the period 1990–2015, the studies further identifies other factors that contribute to the achievement of millennium development goals for education. For instance, because of HPIC, the level of the following education MDGs indicators increased: gross enrollment in primary school (21.69%), female-to-male ratio (8.68%) and primary completion rate (13.69). Our study also show that the probability to achieve the millennium development goals for education increases in: female primary education teachers; school enrollment in tertiary, private school enrollment; pupil–teacher ratio; control of corruption and political stability and decreases with increase in the rural population. In this perspective, government of African countries should promote governance, subsidy private schools and recruit female teachers.     

Schumpeter,Keynes and the theory of economic evolution

The contribution deals with a nonlinear dynamic macro-economic model which is used for simulation runs. Conditions and model specifications allowing for global stability are investigated and tested. Based on this some well-known facts as Schumpeterian long-wave phenomena, Keynesian unemployment, productivity growth effects are simulated. Moreover specifying an instrumental variable for state interventions policy issues are also discussed. With this runs it is shown that minor changes of parameters may provide totally different outcomes and different economic developments.     

中国股市新千年三次大辩论透视

中国证券市场新千年爆发的三次大辩论虽然在形式上具有比较激烈和精彩的特点，但由于对中国证券市场正在进入一个新的发展阶段的认识仍然比较模糊，致使获得的建设性成果相当有限。适应新形势的需要，政策导向应该建立在不断引入投资性资金基础之上，以使中国证券市场尽快步入比较成熟的健康发展阶段。     

对我国高校考试制度变革的思考

历经千年、由盛而衰的科举制昭示:任何一种考试制度,兴利除弊则生,因循守旧必亡。21世纪中国的教育战略应当面对世界、面对公民、面对市场,着力构建高质量、公平和灵活的新教育体系。时代的发展要求我国高校考试制度进行相应的变革。     

The first Great Divergence and the evolution of cross-country income inequality during the last millennium: the role of institutions and culture

Using a millennium of data for 12 countries in the East and in the West, this article tests the extent to which contracting institutions, property right institutions and culture can explain economic development and the Great Divergence. It is tested whether these theories influence growth through science and technology or through human capital or channels that are independent of these two channels. It is found that culture, contracting institutions and property right institutions have all been relevant for growth and development.     

Mobility in China

The evidence on rank and income mobility in China reveals an important change around the year 2000. Using panel data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey we show that rank mobility fell markedly from the decade immediately preceding the millennium to the decade immediately following: in this respect China is becoming noticeably more rigid. By contrast income mobility has carried on increasing; so has income inequality. The simultaneous increase in rigidity and inequality presents China with a challenging policy problem.     

Human security and sexuality in the IPPF Africa Region

The influence of human security components on Sexual Reproductive Health and Rights （SRHR） of individuals was explored in four sub-Saharan Africa countries of Angola, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Liberia and Uganda from November 2008 to April 2009. The present results suggest that the major threat to human security is the competing economic demands that make it difficult for the population to prioritize reproductive health services in their household budgets. This study concludes that there are potential benefits of human security approaches for furthering the goals of SRHR initiatives, in line with the principles and guidelines expressed in the Maputo Plan of Action and the Millennium Development Goals （MDGs）. The results of this study suggest that IPPF Africa Region can start to prioritize economic security, community security and health security which have greatest impact on the reproductive health of the sub-Saharan African population. The key lesson learnt is that the effective use of family planning services mitigates the effects of other human insecurities, including economic, food, and health insecurities as its application in the families will reduce family size and demand on available resources.     

The clan and the corporation: Sustaining cooperation in China and Europe

Over the last millennium, the clan and the corporation have been the loci of cooperation in China and Europe respectively. This paper examines – analytically and historically – the cultural and institutional co-evolution that led to this bifurcation. We highlight that groups with which individuals identify are basic units of cooperation. Such loyalty groups influence institutional development because intra-group moral commitment reduces enforcement cost implying a comparative advantage in pursuing collective actions. Loyalty groups perpetuate due to positive feedbacks between morality, institutions, and the implied pattern of cooperation.     

长波理论、创新与中国经济周期分析

在熊彼特看来,创新是经济繁荣的唯一原因。本文通过对英国技术创新和经济增长历史数据的分析,发现技术创新与经济增长之间有相互决定、相互影响的关系。按照这一发现,通过研究中国目前的经济增长和技术创新情况,本文认为,中国目前正处在创新高涨、潜在增长率下滑的阶段,虽然经济增速在短期内会放缓,但技术创新在未来5～10年内对经济会有拉升作用。除了加大研发投入,中国提高潜在增长率的关键是加快经济体制改革,为创新营造良好的环境,增强市场配置资源的作用。     

The communication and European Regional economic growth: The interactive fixed effects approach

Following the frontier framework of the panel data models with the interactive fixed effects, the study identifies the European regional economic growth determinants for 268 regions from 2000 to 2014. The regional communication might provide the supplementary positive effects on the European regional economic growth, where the population and educational attainment level are negative correlated to the regional economic growth. The regional human resources in science and technology remain the domination power as one of the regional economic engines in European Union after the millennium.     

工业经济的节约型增长及其动力

利用资本、能源和劳动三要素随机前沿成本模型对中国工业成本节约之源进行研究,将成本变动分解为技术进步、价格调整、效率改进与规模变动效应。规模扩大是推动2000—2007年工业成本增长的首要因素,其次是价格调整效应。技术进步和效率改进共同推动节约型增长,前者对节约型增长的影响更广泛、深入。主要依靠技术进步实现节约型增长,是新世纪以来工业增长的重要特征。效率改进提供的额外动力使轻工业成为节约型工业增长的先导部门。