基于Lee-Cater模型的养老保险个人账户缺口研究

鉴于个人账户计发月数未能体现持续的寿命延长,无论做实的个人账户还是处于空账状态的个人账户,个人账户的计发月数与实际支付月数的差异,都会使得实际支付远远超过个人账户实际或记账累积资金,同时账户资金的可继承性,将进一步扩大个人账户缺口。本文通过Lee-Ca-ter模型预测预期寿命的变化,研究死亡率改进对个人账户缺口的影响,以及死亡率和贴现率对个人账户缺口的共同作用。     

Discussion of “Financial reporting for employee stock options: liabilities or equity”

Barth, Hodder, and Stubben examine how the risk and expected return of existing shares varies as a function of the amount of outstanding employee stock options (ESOs), finding that the association is a negative one, consistent with ESOs being equity-like in character. They suggest that their approach could be used to address the question of how best to characterize other complex financial claims. The study is well executed and provides a thought-provoking contribution to the debate. However, it is far from obvious that the “debt or equity” question can be solved in this manner. Their approach effectively defines a liability as a financial claim that has characteristics akin to fixed-rate debt. I provide examples of the limitations of this perspective, starting by comparing ESOs that are settled with shares with those settled in cash. Whether a claim is treated as a liability or equity is of little consequence if it is simply a matter of balance sheet presentation. The real question is the implications for income measurement. I suggest progress might best be made if we start with Penman’s proposal that assets and liabilities be separated into operating and financial items, an approach which would include many claims that have equity-like characteristics, such as unvested ESOs, within the operating liability category. Once a claim ceases to be an operating item—e.g. when an ESO vests—the approach suggested in the paper can then be used to determine how it should be classified.     

央行干预效应之日本证据:1991-2004

本文利用日本央行的外汇实际干预数据对1991-2004年央行干预日元/美元汇率的效应进行了分析。实证结果表明,买入干预的绝对数量对汇率水平影响显著,当干预为日美央行联合买入时,干预对汇率水平的影响更为明显,而单边卖出干预和央行联合卖出干预对汇率水平均不产生显著性影响。同时,日本央行参与入市干预这一举措本身会导致汇率波动的下降,但当干预数量较大时,日本央行的干预将会增大汇率的条件方差。     

On theory as a ‘deliverable’ and its relevance in ‘policy’ arenas

This paper comments on Lee Parker's paper on “Qualitative management accounting research: deliverables and relevance”. Using it as a starting point, it highlights the need for more informed modes of theorizing as opposed to ‘more theories’ and the performative effects of theorising. Theories and theorising already matter although what they ‘deliver’ and influence will be contingent on their instantiation in specific action nets. Further, in order that such social practices might continue to generate desirable consequences, stronger forms of research training should be developed.     

New development: Determinants of financial performance in public organizations

In the slipstream of NPM, public organizations worldwide have had to increase their financial performance by adopting management practices. Nonetheless, financial performance (FP) might be mostly predicted by contingencies that are not within direct managerial control. Drawing on evidence from 308 Flemish municipalities, this article shows that organizational and environmental contingencies affect FP, but a significant amount of variation in FP is unexplained—indicating that management could well matter.     

排污权交易--解决外部不经济问题的一个新思路

本文分析了污染这种外部不经济问题的形成 ,接着探讨了运用科斯定理解决这种外部不经济的可能 ,随后分析了用排污权交易解决污染这种外部不经济的两种途径 :污染者———受害者交易和污染者———污染者交易。最后提出了排污权交易在中国推广的必要性及其推广中需要注意的问题。     

Is there a real-balance effect in equilibrium?

This paper discusses the question of whether the real balance effect in the consumption function should be written as a function of the deviation of the level of real balances (or more generally wealth) from their steady-state value, or rather as a function of the level of real balances. The choice appears to matter for the neutrality of money. It is shown using an intertemporal optimization model that the appropriate choice is to include the level of wealth in the consumption function. Of course, any function can be written as a linear approximation around the steady state, but if that is done, the coefficients of the linearized form change when the steady state changes.     

陕西省"安贷宝借款人意外伤害保险"调研报告

本文以陕西省"安贷宝"调研为基础,发现"安贷宝"的总量和覆盖范围迅速扩大,理赔数量和金额增长更快。"安贷宝"在规避农户和信用社贷款风险、拓展农村保险市场、维护农村经济稳定发展等方面起到了积极的作用,但也存在获赔条件苛刻、贷款周期短、费用较高和不能很好地规避贷款农户的贷款风险等问题,为此,建议把"安贷宝"保费纳入国家农业保险支持范围、降低相关保险费用、扩大"安贷宝"的风险可保范围,以破解"安贷宝"未来发展难题。     

Controlling strategy through dialectical management

Controlling strategy has been portrayed as a matter of managing tensions. But what are these tensions and how do they arise in firms? In this paper, organisational strategy is represented by a target operating model that is maintained by dialectical relationships between functional areas. Using a pragmatic constructivist framework, the functional areas may be conceptualised as specialised managerial topoi. Drawing on field work in the hospitality industry, the paper employs an actor-based research methodology to show that organisational tensions may develop out of conflicts between the different goals and logics associated with the various functional areas such as marketing, sales, revenue management and finance. Although there was evidence of accountants acting as custodians of the budgetary system, in some situations, other functional areas such as marketing or revenue management seemed to be the corporate policemen as they protected the corporate brand against unplanned price discounting or short term cost saving tactics. Rather than seeing functional specialisation as a disruptive obstacle to organisational coherence, the paper presents arguments and evidence which suggest that with the deployment of the principles of dialectical management, tensions between the different business functions can enhance strategic control and development.     

The Valuation of Options When Asset Returns Are Generated by a Binomial Process

This paper values options on assets whose returns, over a finite interval of time, are generated by a binomial process. It shows that a simple valuation relationship, between the option and the underlying stock, obtains if investors have preference functions that belong to a particular class, even if opportunities to hedge do not exist. One particular application of the theory is in the case where the stock price over a finite interval could increase by an amount, fall by the same amount, or stay at the same level. The results in this paper may be viewed as the foundation of the preference-based approaches to obtaining a risk neutral valuation relationship.     

Swaps: Plain and Fanciful

The outstanding face amount of plain vanilla interest rate swaps exceeds two trillion dollars. While pricing and hedging of such swaps appear to be quite simple, many existing theories are based on the incorrect characterization of a swap as a simple exchange of a fixed for a floating rate note. This characterization is not consistent with standarized swap contracts and the treatment of swaps in bankruptcy. This paper provides an alternative perspective on swaps.     

An econometric analysis of the demand surge effect

Devastating natural catastrophes lead to severe damages to buildings and infrastructure which have to be eliminated in the aftermath of the event. Thus, the demand for skilled labor and materials increase sharply which in turn leads to significant price increases that should be taken into account in the forecast of catastrophe losses. This interdependency is referred to as the “Demand Surge” effect. The paper at hand presents an extensive econometric analysis and modeling of the Demand Surge effect based on data about 176 natural catastrophes in the US provided by EM-DAT. We find that Demand Surge is positively influenced by the total amount of repair work, by alternative catastrophes in the same region in close temporal proximity, and by a higher amount of insurance claims per event. Furthermore, the Demand Surge effect is more pronounced if the construction sector is in a growth stage. The contribution is a short summary of a working paper presented at the annual meeting of the German Insurance Science Association (DVfVW) in Berlin in March 2013.     

Tax Evasion, Risky Laundering, and Optimal Deterrence Policy

This paper extends the Allingham and Sandmo's (1972) model of income tax evasion to take account of laundering opportunities, allowing the taxpayer to determine not only the amount of actual income to declare but also the amount of undeclared income to launder. Laundering, aside of entailing direct costs, is assumed to be an unlawful activity, subject to the risk of detection and punishment. The tax authorities devote separate resource efforts to initial audits which may detect undeclared income that has not been laundered and to in-depth investigation which may detect undeclared income that has been laundered. The paper analyzes the effects of laundering incentives on evasion and derives guidelines for the optimal design of a joint evasion/laundering deterrence policy. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Walter Mahlberg's Valuation Theory: An Anomaly in the Development of Inflation Accounting

Walter Mahlberg's inflation-accounting treatise of 1921, Bilanztechnik und Bewertung bei schwankender Währung , contains the first book-length price-level-adjustment model in the literature. As the title of the book indicates, Mahlberg treated the matter of restatement technique and the matter of asset valuation during inflation as distinct topics. Mahlberg's restatement technique was not without immediate influence in Germany and has been addressed previously in English-language publications. His valuation theory, on the other hand, had little effect on contemporary developments and remains an anomaly in the literature today. In particular, Mahlberg saw the effect of certain specific price-level changes—those whose rate of change exceeded general inflation—as giving rise to unavoidable future losses; losses, he maintained, that should be recognized currently. Since Mahlberg's theory is generally unknown outside Germany, the present paper first provides English-speaking audiences with an explication of the logic that led Mahlberg to his unique conclusion. It then argues that although Mahlberg's valuation theory represents a cul-de-sac in the development of inflation accounting itself, it ironically may have contributed to Henry Sweeney's 1936 concept of 'unrealized appreciation', which is an early conceptualization of a holding gain, net of inflation.     

Macroeconomic Shocks and Banking Regulation

The recent crisis has brought to the fore the cyclical properties of banking regulation. Countercyclical buffers and enhanced capital requirements meant to stabilize banks’ balance sheets across the cycle are not costless, and a delicate balance needs to be reached between providing incentives to generate value and discouraging excessive risk taking. The paper develops a model in which, in contrast with Modigliani–Miller, outside equity and capital requirements matter. It analyses banking regulation in the presence of macroeconomic shocks and studies the desirability of self‐insurance mechanisms such as countercyclical capital buffers or dynamic provisioning, as well as “macro‐hedges” such as CoCos and capital insurance.     

县域资金供给存在的结构性问题及建议——吉林省通化市为例

通化县域金融机构在农村地区的资金吸纳能力与金融供给数量存在不平衡的现象。具体来说,有的金融机构在农村地区吸收存款数量较多,但信贷投放相对较少;有的机构信贷投放力度较大,但资金吸纳能力有限。本文提出通过政策手段调整县域资金供给结构,即让支农力度较大的县域金融机构占有更多的资金,这将有效增加支农资金的供给总量,进而推动通化县域地区＂三农＂经济的快速发展。     

Current Account Determinants for Oil-Exporting Countries

The paper characterizes the main determinants of the medium-term current account balance for oil-exporting countries using dynamic panel estimation techniques. It includes a large number of oil-exporting countries and extends the specifications commonly used in the literature to include an oil wealth variable as well as a proxy for the degree of maturity in oil production. The results reveal that factors that matter in determining the equilibrium current account balance of oil-exporting counties are fiscal balance, oil balance, oil wealth, age dependency, economic growth, and degree of oil production-related imports.     

Stochastic Life Annuities

Abstract

This paper gives analytic approximations for the distribution of a stochastic life annuity. It is assumed that returns follow a geometric Brownian motion. The distribution of the stochastic annuity may be used to answer questions such as “What is the probability that an amount F is sufficient to fund a pension with annual amount y to a pensioner aged x?” The main idea is to approximate the future lifetime distribution with a combination of exponentials, and then apply a known formula (due to Marc Yor) related to the integral of geometric Brownian motion. The approximations are very accurate in the cases studied.     

Deep and surface approaches to learning within introductory accounting: a phenomenographic study

This paper reports the findings of a phenomenographic research study which sought to identify students' approaches to learning introductory accounting and their conceptions of accounting. The findings reveal that, in common with other disciplines, deep and surface approaches to learning can be identified. However, the main contribution of this study lies in two areas. First, it distinguishes those features that are characteristic of the deep and surface approaches within the discipline of accounting. Secondly, it identifies contextual features surrounding these approaches to learning and which are central to an understanding of them. The paper suggests how these findings can be used immediately to make changes within teaching and assessment practice through a phenomenographic pedagogy which: seeks to make students' conceptions of the subject matter explicit; provides diagnostic tools for the identification of distinctively different conceptions of the subject and approaches to learning; and addresses issues of preconceptions and relevance within teaching and assessment. The findings can also be used as the basis for further research into the identification of statistical variation in approaches to learning between students.