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随着改革开放的步伐,中国的经济有了翻天覆地的变化,保持了又快、又好的发展势头,经济运行基本平稳.从九十年代开始,中国的国际收支开始走上顺差的道路.仅2007年上半年,国际收支继续保持"双顺差"格局:经常项目顺差1629亿美元,较上年同期增长78%,资本和金融项目顺差902亿美元,增长132%.如此之大的双顺差给经济的平稳运行增加了无形的压力,如何应对国际收支的顺差给经济发展带来的机遇和压力,成为国家制定经济政策所必须考虑的因素. 相似文献
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国务院发展研究中心"经济形势分析"课题组 《财经界(学术)》2006,(1):30-35
2006年是实施“十一五”规划的第一年,打好开局基础十分重要。预测,2006年我国经济仍将保持平稳较快增长势头,应保持投资稳定增长,扩大消费对经济增长的贡献,重视保持国际收支基本平衡。同时,更应着力推动经济增长方式的转变,把发展重点转到优化经济结构,提高经济效益和国民经济的整体竞争力上来。 相似文献
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国务院发展研究中心“经济形势分析”课题组 《财经界》2006,(1)
2006年是实施“十一五”规划的第一年,打好开局基础十分重要。预测,2006年我 国经济仍将保持平稳较快增长势头,应保持投资稳定增长,扩大消费对经济增长的贡献, 重视保持国际收支基本平衡。同时,更应着力推动经济增长方式的转变,把发展重点转到 优化经济结构,提高经济效益和国民经济的整体竞争力上来。 相似文献
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国际收支货币分析法认为国际收支失衡是货币市场失衡的体现,一国经济增长不会恶化国际收支、人民币贬值不能有效改善国际收支逆差。选取1994年-2010年季度数据,以货币需求函数为媒介,分析我国快速的经济增长如何通过影响货币市场引致国际收支顺差。在国际收支货币分析法基本理论基础上,对我国经济增长、国内信贷如何影响国际收支做了实证检验,得出外汇储备增长率与经济增长率正相关,与国内信贷负相关的结论。并在此基础之上建立货币需求函数,在货币需求函数中引入收入水平、汇率等因素,实证结果发现经济增长引起货币需求增加进而引致国际收支顺差,并且人民币升值不能缓解我国顺差压力。 相似文献
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影响物价上涨的主要因素分析 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
促进经济增长、增加就业、稳定物价、国际收支平衡是宏观调控的四大目标,2010年我国经济保持较快增长、城镇新增就业超额完成目标、外汇储备大幅增加,宏观调控的三大目标得以较好完成,但对物价水平的调控不尽如人意。从目前形势看, 相似文献
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中国国际收支“双顺差”所暴露的问题 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
国际收支是一国的国际经济交易活动的综合反映,然而这一反映对外经济活动的外向型指标从本质上反映着一国的国内经济情况,国际收支状况只不过是国内经济运行状况的外在表现而已。中国国际收支长期持续的"双顺差"在本质上暴露了国内制度建设的缺陷、金融市场改革不到位的缺陷以及外汇管理体制改革的滞后性等问题,从而为从本质上改善国际收支失衡提供了解保持"双顺差"(1998年除外),带来了中国外汇储备持续不断的增长,截止2009年9月中国外汇储备达22725.95亿美元,这势必会增强中国抵御游资决思路。 相似文献
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内生增长理论是现代经济增长理论中的一个核心内容。从长期经济增长所依赖的路径来看,人力资本和技术进步作为经济增长的内生因素,可以弥补因其他要素收益递减而带来经济增长停滞这一局面。如果经济增长率是由内生因素决定的,那么财政政策对经济增长的影响将再次成为人们关注的焦点。在国家财政政策干预下,以内生增长为动力,逐步形成有利于经济增长的物质资本投资向人力资本和技术进步等方面投资的转换机制。 相似文献
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如何阐释和说明世界各国经济发展路径的差异性、增长状态的多样性,建立经济增长不确定性理论,是90年代末以来国外经济增长研究的一个重要分支。本文从经济系统的自组织性出发,基于经济增长的要素性质、多部门组成,应用系统自组织理论,研究经济增长的路径演化、状态转移和结构变迁,以建立经济增长不确定性的自组织机制。 相似文献
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Arshad Hayat 《The journal of international trade & economic development》2019,28(5):561-579
Institutional quality is considered to be an important factor in boosting economic growth of a country. This paper explores the role of institutional quality in economic growth and more specifically the role it plays via the channel of foreign direct investments. This paper uses a larger dataset of 104 countries and applies GMM estimation method to a dynamic panel data to evaluate the direct impact of institutional quality on economic growth and the indirect impact of institutional quality on economic growth through enhancing the FDI-induced economic growth. This paper provides evidence that both FDI inflows and institutional quality cause stronger economic growth. The FDI-led growth, however, was only experienced in the low and middle-income countries. In these countries, better institutional quality was also found to be enhancing the FDI-led economic growth. An important finding of this paper is that in the high-income countries, FDI was found to slow down the economic growth. The results are robust and consistent for individual institutional quality indicators and controlling for endogeneity. 相似文献
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Omar M. Al Nasser 《Latin American Business Review》2013,14(2):111-139
Using panel data methods to analyze data from 14 Latin American countries from 1978 to 2003, this paper empirically examines the links between foreign direct investment (FDI), local conditions, and economic growth. The results suggest that FDI plays an important role in contributing to economic growth. However, the effect of FDI on economic growth is dependent on host economy–based conditions. The empirical results from this study show that there is a positive interaction effect of FDI with technology gap and a negative interaction effect of FDI with the level of school attainment on economic growth. Furthermore, the empirical results from the FDI equation suggest that inflation, trade, school attainment, and telephone lines are the most determinant of location decisions for foreign investors. To explore the relationship between FDI and economic growth further, this paper examines Granger-causality between FDI and economic growth. Our empirical evidence shows that the direction of causality is from economic growth to FDI and not the reverse for Asian countries. Therefore, the causal link between FDI and economic growth is unidirectional. We also provide evidence that the link between FDI and economic growth is bidirectional for Latin American countries, which indicates that economic growth initially could attract more FDI, which, in turn, would then result in accelerated economic growth. 相似文献
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消费带动发展已经成为我国现阶段经济发展的迫切需要。在新一轮扩大内需、促进经济平稳较快增长的进程中,必须正确认识消费结构与经济增长的互动关系,即消费结构升级是经济增长的持久动力,经济增长是消费结构升级的基础,经济增长促进消费结构升级。 相似文献
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现代经济增长的综合分析框架:分工—制度—品牌模型 总被引:12,自引:0,他引:12
分工带来专业化程度的提高和生产迂回程度的增加,促进了经济增长,但同时也带来了交易费用的上升,因此制度变迁理论认为,制度安排通过降低交易费用、提高经济组织的效率从而促进经济增长。分工带来的产量增加和产品多样化却会导致消费者的选择成本上升、降低消费者的选择效率从而降低资源配置效率,使生产和消费不能保持均衡发展,妨碍了经济增长。而品牌和品牌品类化则是产品多样化时代能有效降低消费者选择成本的工具和手段。因此分工及专业化与制度及其变迁从生产或供给角度解释了生产效率对经济增长的决定作用,而品牌从需求方面解释了消费者的选择效率对经济增长的促进和拉动作用,分工—制度—品牌模型可以成为当代解释经济增长的综合分析框架。 相似文献
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Robert C. Shelburne 《International Trade Journal》2013,27(1):63-84
Given the continuing growth of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the United States, there is a growing interest in examining its impact on the rate of economic growth. The immense literature on economic growth in the United States is composed of studies that concentrate on measuring the domestic variables that affect U.S. economic growth. However, the impact of foreign direct investment on the economic growth of the United States has not received the attention that is deserves. The purpose of this study is: (1) to examine the determinants of economic growth in the United States over time, and (2) to see if there is any time-series support for the FDI-led growth hypothesis in the United States. To achieve these goals the study uses a model that is based on the postulates of de Mello. Employing a 40-year period of annual data, the model is estimated by using the Beach Mackinnon technique which corrects for autocorrelation. The estimation results suggest the following conclusions: 1. The major determinants of economic growth in the United States are total factor productivity growth, domestic investment growth, and foreign direct investment growth. 2. Causal relationships between foreign direct investment growth and economic growth is uni-directional, running from foreign direct investment to economic growth. 3. Causal relationships between foreign direct investment growth and total factor productivity growth is uni-directional, running from foreign direct investment to total factor productivity. These findings suggest that foreign direct investment growth has a significant impact on the United States economic growth. Additionally, foreign direct investment has a significant impact on total factor productivity in the United States, further contributing to the United States’ economic growth. This calls on the U.S. policy makers to devise policies that are conducive to increasing the amount of foreign direct investment in this country. 相似文献
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中国进出口贸易对经济增长方式转变的影响分析 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
文章基于中国1980-2010年GDP和进出口的相关数据对中国进出口贸易和经济运行的轨迹进行分析,测算了外贸依存度、贡献率和拉动度三个指标。运用协整理论和格兰杰因果关系检验方法对中国进出口贸易与经济增长的关系进行实证分析。结果表明中国经济增长与出口之间是正相关的关系,出口增长对经济增长具有明显的促进作用:出口每增长1%,中国GDP将增长约0.714%;同时,经济增长与进口之间也是正相关的关系,弹性为0.0286,进口每增长1%,中国GDP将增长约0.0286%。因此,可以看出中国进出口贸易的增长都促进经济的增长。 相似文献
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人力资本发展水平不仅是教育国际竞争力的重要指标,同时也是本国经济增长的内在动力。从教育对经济增长贡献率的计量分析方法中演化出高等教育对经济增长贡献率的估算方法,并从国民收入增长额和增长速度两个不同视角,比较分析高等教育对经济增长的贡献,同时对两类分析方法存在的问题进行探讨与分析,并对高等教育对经济增长贡献率估算方法的研究进行了未来展望。 相似文献