关于政府决策者制定与实施地方适应气候变化规划的调查研究

适应气候变化是当前尤其是发展中国家应对气候变化的基本对策。我国已将适应气候变化问题纳入国民经济和社会发展规划,但各地在制定和实施适应气候变化的规划和政策时还存在诸多困难。政府决策者对适应气候变化措施的知识水平和规划能力对地方制定和实施适应气候变化规划具有决定性的作用。文章调查结果显示,地方政府决策者在制定和实施地方适应气候变化规划时,面临的主要困难是:缺乏相关专业知识、缺乏资金保障、缺少政策法规支持、缺少相关部门之间的合作机制等。基于此,应有针对性地对地方各级领导干部开展适应气候变化的教育和培训;同时,构建多元化资金投入保障机制、加强政策体系建设与支撑、完善参与协调机制、开展规划实施评估与监管,从而进一步提高地方政府应对气候变化的能力。     

"适应气候变化"是发展中国家当务之急

在应对气候变化的问题上,人们长期以来对"减缓气候变化"高度关注,而对另一重要方面——"适应气候变化"却重视不够。2007年12月联合国气候变化大会通过的《巴厘行动计划》,将"适应气候变化"与"减缓气候变化"置于同等重要的位置。联合国环境规划署发布的《气候变化的影响和适应评估报告》,更是呼吁各国迅速采取行动适应气候变化,在制订经济发展计划时将适应气候变化问题纳入其中,易受气候变化影响的发展中国家和地区更该如此。     

应对气候变化：财政政策有作为——气候变化与公共财政政策的理论分析

根据相关理论基础,本文分析了政府在应对气候变化行动中的作用,即政府是应对气候变化的领导者、组织者和政策的制定者,也是市场机制能够发挥作用的保障者。根据气候变化问题的公共产品属性,本文进一步分析了财政政策与应对气候变化之间的关系,即财政政策是应对气候变化的主要政策工具和物质保障,应该起到重要的引导作用。     

城市适应气候变化行动的国际经验与启示

城市适应气候变化已成为我国应对气候变化战略中的重要环节。总结国际先进经验,对于我国城市科学适应气候变化具有重要的借鉴意义。从制度、规划、措施等角度,分析总结了伦敦、鹿特丹、温哥华三个城市的适应气候变化经验。城市适应战略的成功要素主要包括:确立政府在适应气候变化治理中的领导地位;建立跨区域、跨部门的协调机构;提高各利益相关者的意识;因地制宜地提出符合本地特征的适应行动和措施;对适应规划进行持续跟踪和评估。结合我国实际,文章总结了国际经验对我国城市开展适应气候变化行动的启示并提出了相关建议。     

印度的低碳经济发展现状与趋势

印度作为发展中国家,其脆弱的应对气候变化能力,以及能源结构的不合理性等问题,促使其在低碳经济的道路上不断地变革。自2006年8月起,印度先后出台了一系列应对措施,包括:组织专家起草《能源综合政策报告》、成立总理气候变化委员会、推出《国家应对气候变化计划》等项措施。其中,《国家应对气候变化计划》提出了8个核心国家计划,涉及太阳能、能源效率、可持续居住环境、水资源管理与利用、喜马拉雅生态环境、植树造林、可持续农业和应对气候变化等8个领域,为印度有效地实施低碳生态的可持续发展提供了一个行动框架。2011年,印度清洁能源投资103亿美元,比2010年高出约52%,这是世界所有重要经济体中的最高增长。印度将持续有效地推动低碳经济发展,注重市场调节,稳定政府的优惠政策,加强国际合作。     

地方政府债务规范性管理对商业银行发展的影响

随着地方政府债务性风险的持续扩大,为避免发生区域性和系统性风险,促进国民经济持续健康发展,国务院出台《关于加强地方政府性债务管理的意见》,剥离融资平台公司政府融资职能,通过对地方政府债务规范性管理,必将改变原有地方政府融资模式,对商业银行发展产生巨大的影响。因此从地方政府债务规范性管理内容入手,阐述43号文对商业银行规模、质量、收益、风险、产品及服务模式带来的影响,探寻商业银行发展的应对举措。     

全球气候变化与人群健康

全球气候变化引发的各种气象灾害，如高温热浪、风暴、干旱、洪水等极端天气，正在严重威胁着全人类的生命健康。2023年11月，《2023柳叶刀人群健康与气候变化倒计时报告》以及《2023中国版柳叶刀人群健康与气候变化倒计时报告》在北京发布。文章以这两份报告内容为基础，系统梳理和总结全球气候变化对人类健康的各种负面影响，最后提出了以健康为中心的气候变化应对措施。     

中国和平发展战略对全球应对气候变化行动的影响

2005年中国首次发布《中国的和平发展道路》白皮书,2011年9月6日中国再次发布《中国的和平发展》白皮书,向全世界公布中国和平发展的战略。中国采取什么样的发展战略,不仅对全球世界政治经济格局具有重要影响,同时也对全球应对气候变化的行动产生重要影响。重点分析了中国和平发展战略对全球应对气候变化行动的影响:(1)中国的和平发展,坚持以科学发展为指导,本身就是全球应对气候变化行动的重要组成部分;(2)中国的和平发展,推动了世界的和平与发展,有利于创造全球应对气候变化的良好政治经济环境;(3)中国的和平发展,推动了全球资源合理有效配置,有利于提高全球应对气候变化的实际成效;(4)中国的和平发展,提倡的是国际合作,有利于推动全球应对气候变化的国际协同。     

国外应对气候变化的财政政策及其经验借鉴

第五期《环境经济》杂志以封面文章的形式,理论联系实际地分析了我国应对气候变化的财政政策,颇受读者好评。作为补充,本期特刊发同样源自《应对气候变化财政政策研究》课题报告的另一篇文章,以飨读者。本文选择国外代表性的发达和发展中国家,从财政投入政策、税费政策、政府采购政策等方面洋细介绍了这些国家应对气候变化的具体财政政策情况,并在此基础上总结了国外应对气候变化财政政策的相关经验。     

应对气候变化财政政策不可或缺

上期《环境经济》的封面文章——《应对气候变化：财政政策有作为》,使读者对气候变化和财政政策之间的关系有了较为深入的了解。去年的哥本哈根大会期间,来自中国财政部的《中国应对气候变化的财政政策及效果》给人留下了深刻印象。这也是中国第一次向外界公布中国政府在应对气候变化问题上的积极作为,充分证明了中国政府在应对气候变化方面所做的工作以及积极的姿态。     

Royal Dutch/Shell

Climate change will affect security of individuals and populations as well as the security of states. The article reviews evidence on the scope and nature of the climate change challenge; reviews how these impacts manifest themselves in insecurity at diverse scales; and examines evidence on the political economy of adaptation responses to these impacts. I argue that climate security has been framed in public and policy debate over climate change such that climate change impacts are a threat to nation states in terms of their interests, their economies and their borders. This framing crowds out, subverts and constrains framing in terms of human-well being. I suggest that human security provides a broader and more encompassing notion of climate security than that focussed on security of states. Here, climate security focuses on the idea of freedom from harm and fear of individuals and communities and the capability to adapt to any imposed harm. From that human security perspective, the central analytical issues become those of vulnerability, adaptation and justice.     

Multi-level Governance and Global Climate Change in East Asia

Climate change is an issue that requires integrated action at multiple levels of government and within the spheres of politics, economics, and society. National, regional, and local governments have both distinct and complementary roles in developing climate mitigation and adaptation strategies. Compared with the attention that has been given to international and national activities in East Asia, relatively limited attention has been paid to the role of urban and regional governments in combating global climate change. Cities and provinces are initiating their own climate action plans, positioning themselves as environmental model cities, and joining local, national, and international networks for climate change. This article examines urban and prefectural climate policies in China, Japan, and South Korea within a multilevel governance framework.     

Global warming and livestock husbandry in Kenya: Impacts and adaptations

This paper examines the economic impact of climate change on livestock production in Kenya. We estimate a Ricardian model of net livestock incomes and further estimate the marginal impacts of climate change. We also simulate the impact of different climate scenarios on livestock incomes. The Ricardian results show that livestock production in Kenya is highly sensitive to climate change and that there is a non-linear relationship between climate change and livestock productivity. The estimated marginal impacts suggest modest gains from rising temperatures and losses from increased precipitation. The predictions from atmospheric ocean general circulation models suggest that livestock farmers in Kenya are likely to incur heavy losses from global warming. The highest and lowest losses are predicted from the Hadley Centre Coupled model (HADCM) and Parallel Climate Model (PCM) respectively, based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A2 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. The paper concludes that in the long term, climate change is likely to lead to increased poverty, vulnerability and loss of livelihoods. Several policy interventions are recommended to counter this impact.     

The impact of climate change skepticism on adaptation in a market economy

Climate change will increase the risk of temperature extremes. Induced innovation could offset some of this threat. This paper explores the demand and supply for climate adaptation innovation in a market economy. Such innovation attenuates the past relationship between the population death rate and extreme heat. Climate change induces this innovation because the rising temperatures increase demand for self protection products and for profit firms respond to these incentives. We then augment the model to introduce “climate skeptics”. Such skeptics reject the claim that the world’s average temperature is rising and thus do not increasingly demand adaptation products. In an economy featuring no government to enact optimal taxation, we quantify how rational agents are affected by the presence of climate skeptics.     

Operationalising a resilience approach to adapting an urban delta to uncertain climate changes

Climate change may pose considerable challenges to coastal cities, particularly in low-lying urban deltas. Impacts are, however, associated with substantial uncertainties. This paper studies an uncertainty-robust adaptation strategy: strengthening the resilience of the impacted system. This approach is operationalised for the city of Rotterdam, using literature study, interviews, and a workshop. Potential impacts have been explored using national climate statistics and scenarios and a set of ‘wildcards’ (imaginable surprises). Sea level rise, particularly in combination with storm surge, and enduring heat and drought are the most relevant potential stresses in the area. These can lead to damage, loss of image, and societal disruption. Unclear responsibilities enhance disruption. ‘Resilience principles’ made the concept of resilience sufficiently operational for local actors to explore policy options. Useful principles for urban resilience include: homeostasis, omnivory, high flux, flatness, buffering, redundancy, foresight and preparedness/planning, compartmentalisation, and flexible planning/design. A resilience approach makes the system less prone to disturbances, enables quick and flexible responses, and is better capable of dealing with surprises than traditional predictive approaches. Local actors frame resilience as a flexible approach to adaptation that would be more suitable and tailored to local situations than rigid top-down regulations. In addition to a change in policy, it would require a more pro-active mentality among the population.     

气候变化政策中的技术变迁模型

技术变迁对于减缓和适应气候变化起着至关重要的作用。对近年来关于气候变化政策模型研究中的技术变迁处理方法进行了回顾。气候变化政策模型中广泛应用的有"自下而上"和"自上而下"两种方法,前者强调对能源系统细节的、技术性的处理方法,后者强调理论上对整个经济体的一致性描述。自下而上和自上而下模型都是为了帮助设计温室气体的减排政策,但是两种模型都依赖于对能源替代性和技术变迁动力学的过于简单的假设。通过对气候变化政策分析中常用的综合性模型进行归纳,总结不同模型的前提假设和模型中处理技术变迁的不同方法,以及不同的计算方法。     

Study on Medium- and Long-Term Fiscal Policies to Cope with Climate Change under the “Dual Carbon” Goals

Carbon peaking and carbon neutrality constitute an extensive, profound and systemic economic and social change. It is worthwhile to explore how fiscal policy, as a key institutional arrangement in the public policy system to cope with climate change, can play a fundamental and pillar role. Based on literatures, theories and empirical materials, this paper systematically explores the relationship between climate change and public finance. The fiscal impact of climate change will eventually be reflected in fiscal behavior, fiscal costs and fiscal relations, and the fiscal system has the adaptability of an “automatic stabilizer” and the proactiveness to enable the Discretionary Approaches function when facing climate change impacts. This implies such a governance logic of fiscal policy that is systematic, forward-looking and flexible in addressing climate change. In the future, it is necessary to further incorporate climate change or related environmental factors into the fiscal policy framework, target the two key aspects of mitigation and adaptation, and carry out a holistic, systematic and forward-looking reform of the existing fiscal expenditure policy, fiscal revenue policy, fiscal investment and financing policy, government budget system, government procurement policy and ecological compensation policy. While highlighting the “governance” function of fiscal policy in addressing climate change, Chinese government needs to strengthen the coordination and collaboration between fiscal policy tools and other public policies, and magnify the governance effectiveness of fiscal policy in the process of addressing climate change. This paper helps understand the positioning, role and influence of fiscal policy in the process of addressing climate change, provides a basis for better playing the fundamental and underpinning role of the modern fiscal system in the governance of ecological civilization, and presents an analytical framework for building a theoretical system of ecological fiscal governance.     

气候变化对干旱区居民生计脆弱性影响研究——基于新疆和宁夏两省区的农户调查

气候变化是导致干旱区居民生计脆弱性的重要原因之一。构建生计脆弱性指标(Livelihood Vulnerability Index,LVI-IPCC)可以评估气候变化对干旱地区居民生计的影响。根据IPCC定义气候变化脆弱性的三个特征,选择新疆、宁夏两个典型干旱省份,调查社会人口指标、生计情况、社会关系网络、健康、食品、饮水安全、自然灾害和气候变化等数据,用复合指标和脆弱性指标进行对比分析。结果表明,宁夏在水资源、健康等方面的脆弱性更为明显,而新疆在社会关系、自然灾害和气候变化等方面更为脆弱。这种实证方法可用于被监测脆弱性,在缺乏地区性数据时检验某种政策的有效性。     

Should We Worry about Government Debt? Thoughts on Australia's COVID-19 Response

No. While the COVID-19 crisis has required a dramatic increase in debt-financed government spending, in the current conditions the benefits from this debt are unusually high and the costs unusually low. While conditions can change, the Australian Government can right now hedge against these risks by lengthening the maturity structure of government debt, even at the cost of a modest increase in its current servicing costs.