企业并购的长期绩效分析——以联想集团有限公司并购IBM的PC业务为例

文章以联想集团有限公司并购IBM的PC业务为例,重点对企业从并购开始至今的股票价格、市场占有率的变动趋势进行了研究,并运用主成分分析法对其并购前后的财务绩效进行考核,得出联想集团并购成效并不显著的结论,并提出了一些改进措施,为今后的企业实施并购活动提供借鉴意义。     

企业并购的长期绩效分析——以联想集团有限公司并购IBM的PC业务为例

文章以联想集团有限公司并购IBM的PC业务为例,重点对企业从并购开始至今的股票价格、市场占有率的变动趋势进行了研究,并运用主成分分析法对其并购前后的财务绩效进行考核,得出联想集团并购成效并不显著的结论,并提出了一些改进措施,为今后的企业实施并购活动提供借鉴意义。     

分形市场假说与股票市场的有效性分析

主流的金融计量理论是以价格的随机游走和收益的正态分布假设为基础的,而分形市场研究认为价格是分形,价格遵循有偏随机游走,并用分形分布描述收益的分布规律;在分形研究的框架下,作为主流有效市场假说的替代理论,分形市场假说用不同投资期水平下的投资者对信息的不同评估来解释价格行为的分形机制,也启发我们从动态的和相对的角度去思考股票市场的有效性问题。     

企业并购绩效研究方法综述

企业并购绩效研究方法有很多,本文主要两个基本方法入手,即长期绩效研究法和事件研究法,分析了两种方法各自的含义与优缺点,同时分别回顾了国内及国外企业并购绩效方法相关的文献综述,并且对其作出了评价,找出了研究现状的不足以及解决改进方法,得出适合于我国企业并购绩效基本方法的结论——长期绩效方法。     

交易特征、并购溢价及并购绩效分析——来自上市公司大宗股权协议转让的经验证据

本文详细分析了交易特征和并购溢价对并购现金流绩效的影响。研究结果发现,并购溢价与并购后现金流业绩显著正相关,转让价格在一定程度上能反映购买方对上市公司价值的判断,对公司未来的业绩有信号作用。当控股股东将国有股权转让给关联方且股权性质发生了变更时,并购后现金流业绩显著降低。这在某种程度上证实了在新型委托代理关系中大股东利用股权转让和关联交易掠夺上市公司财富进而剥削中小股东。     

企业并购动因、协同效应与并购绩效文献综述

目前我国经济发展已经进入“新常态”,随着去产能、去杠杆的持续推进,国企改制进程的加快,以及“产业升级”的战略部署,并购优化经济结构、带动企业发展、实现转型升级的作用也愈发明显。本文总结了国内外学者对企业并购动因、并购绩效及其评价体系的相关文献,以并购活动的内在联系为核心,分析并购对企业绩效的影响,为促进我国企业并购理论发展提供一定的方向。     

关联并购、支付方式与企业并购绩效

关联并购在我国上市公司并购活动中占主要地位,关联并购可能是关联交易的终结,但也有能成为大股东掏空上市公司的手段.在此背景下,本文通过多元回归分析探究了关联并购与并购绩效之间的关系,并在此基础上,引入支付方式,通过多元回归分析和分组检验,进一步探究了支付方式对关联并购与企业并购绩效之间的调节作用.实证结果显示,关联并购与并购绩效之间显著负相关,并购关联性与支付方式的交乘项与并购绩效显著负相关,说明支付方式对关联并购与并购绩效之间负相关关系具有加强的作用.     

家族主义文化与企业并购行为——来自家族上市公司的证据

儒家家族主义伦理思想对中国家族企业经营影响深远。本文研究我国上市家族企业实际控制人的家族主义文化观念对企业并购行为的影响。研究发现：实际控制人的家族主义文化观念越强,企业并购交易的规模越小,但并购绩效越好。这一实证结果在考虑遗漏变量等内生性问题后依然成立。进一步研究还发现,当企业所在地的市场法治环境较差、并购方处于行业景气度较差时期以及并购方进行跨行业并购时,实际控制人的家族主义文化观念对企业并购行为的影响程度较大。最后,我们发现家族企业实际控制人的家族主义文化观念的形成,主要是受到家族内部的言传身教,而非外部社会环境的熏陶。综上,本文结果表明企业家的家族主义文化观念越强,越希望企业在家族内部世代传承,实现基业长青,因此其并购决策将更为稳健谨慎和具有长期价值导向。     

并购支付方式与并购绩效的实证研究——以沪深上市公司为收购目标的经验证据

企业的并购活动需要支付相应的对价,选择并购支付方式是实现企业并购战略目标的手段之一。本文采用财务指标分析法,选取2006-2011年上市公司控制权发生变更的并购事件为样本,对并购支付方式与并购绩效之间的关系进行实证分析。研究发现,以市场为主导的有偿并购的绩效明显好于以政府为主导的无偿并购的绩效。在有偿并购中,现金支付及现金与资产支付组合的绩效较为稳定,资产支付方式的绩效表现为高开低走,而现金与承担债务支付组合的绩效呈现先上升后下降的趋势。进一步研究显示,与现金支付方式相比,关联交易和并购类型是其他支付方式下并购绩效改善的主要影响因素。     

市场结构与财产险公司承保绩效——来自中国机动车保险市场的经验证据

近年,我国机动车保险行业性承保亏损已引起经营者与监管机构重点关注。本文以我国2004年～2008年各地机动车保险市场的经验数据为样本,从市场结构与承保绩效关联性入手,验证了产业组织理论在我国机动车保险市场的适用性,以从市场结构角度阐述近年机动车保险业务承保亏损的原因。研究得到了经验证据的支持,为改善我国机动车保险市场结构,提高市场绩效提供新的视角。     

The Effect of House Price on Stock Market Participation in China: Evidence from the CHFS Microdata

This is an empirical study on the effect of house price on stock market participation and its depths based on unique China Household Finance Survey (CHFS) data in 2011 and 2013 including 36,213 sample households. We mainly found that, with an increase of one thousand RMB per square meter in macrohouse price, the probability to participate in the stock market will increase by 5.4% before controlling for wealth effect and 2.84% afterwards, indicating the existence of wealth effect. The participation depths of the stock-total asset ratio are expected to decrease by 0.23%, and absolute stock asset is observed to decrease by 5.8 thousand RMB in response to one thousand RMB increase of per square meter house price. The effect of house price on participation decision is also related to housing area, and the negative effect of house price on stock market participation depths gets more intense with the increase of the stock-total asset ratio.     

The Random Walk Hypothesis in the Spanish Stock Market: 1980–1992

In this paper we test the random walk hypothesis in the Spanish stock market using disaggregated daily data base spanning the period January 1980 to December 1992. We find that daily returns are strongly correlated and nonlinear dependent. Furthermore, using the variance-ratio test, that is robust to heteroscedasticity, the results suggest that the rejection of the random walk hypothesis cannot be attributed completely to the effects of time varying volatilities. In this sense, the price changes can be potentially predictable over, at least, short time spans.     

我国银行业市场结构与市场绩效的实证研究

本文运用非参数的数据包络分析法计算我国银行业的X-效率和规模效率,在此基础上对市场结构与市场绩效间的关系进行了实证研究,结果表明在我国银行业市场中"结构-行为-绩效"假说和"有效结构"假说均不成立;作者还进一步从动态的角度,考察了我国银行业市场结构的变化对整体经营绩效的影响,发现"银行内效应"决定了我国银行业绩效变化的方向;但包括市场份额效应、交叉效应和进入效应在内的再配置效应也很重要,特别是行业绩效下降的时期,正的"再配置效应"改善了我国银行业经营的整体业绩,遏制了整体业绩的进一步下降.     

REIT Stock Splits and Market Efficiency

An analysis of real estate investment trust (REIT) stock splits is presented. Evaluation of the initial reaction to split REITs supports efficient market pricing where REITs generate statistically significant positive announcement date returns, no statistically significant record date returns, and muted ex-date returns. In the long-term, split REITs do not consistently out perform benchmark portfolios over one-year, two-year, and three-year periods. REITs split subsequent to a substantial run up in stock price and to improve the position of their post split stock price relative to the stock price of the typical REIT.     

融资约束、支付方式与并购绩效的关系研究

本文利用中国A股上市公司2008～2010年在国内并购的数据,实证检验融资约束是否影响并购支付方式以及公司并购绩效。研究结果发现,融资约束程度的提高增加了公司采用现金支付对价的可能性;收购公司规模和交易规模对支付方式选择也具有显著影响;融资约束公司并购绩效好于无融资约束公司并购绩效;现金支付引起公司并购绩效降低,但是,这种作用在不同融资约束程度公司中存在差异。本文研究意味着融资约束公司遵循融资优序理论;自由现金流假说对于融资约束公司可能不成立。     

中国股票市场运行状况的理论分析

中国股市的市场化改革是大势所趋，但又不能操之过急，更不能脱离中国实际。脱离实际的管理理论和管理实践其后果是极其严重的，近年来股票市场的运行态势已经充分证明了这一点。现阶段的重要工作就是，真实评价近年来中国股市的状况，调整监管与发展的思路，纠正认识上的偏差，恢复投资者的信心，制订合理的政策措施，控制潜在的金融风险，从根本上引导中国股市走出低谷。     

Market Structure and Return Volatility: Evidence from the Hong Kong Stock Market

There is no consensus about the cause for higher volatility at the market open than at the market close in the U.S. market. As an order–driven, nonspecialist market, the Hong Kong stock market provides a useful setting for an examination. If halt of trade were the major cause of higher open–to–open volatility, the open–to–open volatility in the Hong Kong market would be higher. However, this is not observed. The autocorrelation of the open–to–open return series also indicates that the temporary price deviation at the market opening is not significant. We view these findings as consistent with the specialist argument.     

Efficient Markets Hypothesis and the Emerging Capital Market in Sri Lanka: Evidence from the Colombo Stock Exchange – A Note

The behaviour of stock prices on the Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE) is examined with a view to determine its consistency with the weak form of the Efficient Markets Hypothesis (EMH). Runs, Autocorrelation and Cointegration tests are applied to daily, weekly and monthly CSE index data for the period of January 1991–November 1996. Results of Runs, Correlation and Cointegration tests overwhelmingly reject the serial independence hypothesis, leading to the conclusion that the behaviour of stock prices in the Colombo Stock Exchange is not consistent with the weak form of the Efficient Markets Hypothesis. Tests of the-day-of-the-week-effect, however, show that there is no evidence of such a phenomenon on the Colombo Stock Exchange stock prices. Results of the tests of the-month-of-the-year-effect lead to the conclusion that CSE prices do not display any month-specific behaviour.     

Information Diffusion and Overreaction: Evidence from the Chinese Stock Market

This paper empirically examines the relation between overreaction and the speed of information diffusion in the Chinese stock market. Industry-adjusted firm size and residual analyst coverage are used to proxy the speed of information diffusion. We document strong evidence that the profitability of a monthly contrarian strategy decreases with industry-adjusted firm size or residual analyst coverage. Moreover, the profitability of contrarian strategies survives for a longer horizon for stocks with slower information diffusion than for those with faster information diffusion. This result holds true even if risk, bid-ask spread, lead-lag effect, inventory costs, and limits to arbitrage are properly accounted for. Our findings suggest that information environment and information diffusion determine the extent of overreaction.     

The Impact of Monetary and Fiscal Policy Shocks on Stock Markets: Evidence from China

We study the impact of Chinese monetary and fiscal policy shocks and the interaction of the two policies on stock markets. We find that, first, when we focus on the contemporaneous correlation, Chinese fiscal policy has significant, negative contemporaneous relationships with stock market performance, while monetary policy’s impact on stock market performance varies, depending on the fiscal policy. Second, with respect to the lagged variables, Chinese monetary and fiscal policy both have a significant and direct positive effect on stock market performance. Meanwhile, interaction between the two policies plays an extremely important role in explaining the development of stock markets.