Population Growth and Economic and Social Development

The author compares maximum likelihood estimates of multinomial logit coefficients with coefficients of the same variables of student evaluations of teaching estimated in an ordinary least-squares regression. His results suggest that the logit model is preferable.     

Taste Variation in Discrete Choice Models

This paper develops an extension of the classical multinomial logit model which approximates a class of models obtained when there is uncontrolled taste variation across agents and choices in addition to the stochastic noise inherent in the logit model. Unlike semiparametric and parametric alternatives, the extended logit model is easy to estimate even when there are many potential choices. Unlike parametric alternatives, it does not require the specification of a distribution of varying tastes. The extended logit model can give a quick indication of the impact of taste variation on estimates and it generates estimates of the covariances of the taste shifters. It can be used as an exploratory device en route to the construction of a model incorporating a particular form of random taste variation and it can be used to determine whether such effort is required at all. When the amount of taste variation is not excessive the approximate model can be adequate itself. The model nests the conventional logit model which leads to a misspecification diagnostic. A method for estimating the model using conventional logit model software is proposed, asymptotic properties of estimators are derived and an application is presented.     

CAN RECREATION VALUES FOR A LAKE CONSTITUTE A MARKET FOR BANKED AGRICULTURAL WATER?

This paper presents estimates of the recreational use value to prevent the loss of a western lake threatened by diversions of upstream waters that supply it. The recreation demand model used to estimate recreation-related values is the popular repeated nested multinomial logit model. The model is specified to allow an individual to choose when to visit various sites during the season, because site choice is likely to be influenced by water levels that change over the course of the season. The values are compared to agricultural values in order to assess whether the potential recreation demand side of a market for a water bank exists.     

Incorporating Discontinuous Preferences into the Analysis of Discrete Choice Experiments

Data from a discrete choice experiment on improvements of rural landscape attributes are used to investigate the implications of discontinuous preferences on willingness to pay estimates. Using a multinomial error component logit model, we explore differences in scale and unexplained variance between respondents with discontinuous and continuous preferences and condition taste intensities on whether or not each attribute was considered by the respondent during the evaluation of alternatives. Results suggest that significant improvements in model performance can be achieved when discontinuous preferences are accommodated in the econometric specification, and that the magnitude and robustness of the willingness to pay estimates are sensitive to discontinuous preferences.     

An Error Component Logit Analysis of Corporate Bankruptcy and Insolvency Risk in Australia

This paper introduces a four-state failure model to depict a wider range of distress scenarios that public companies typically face in the real world. We use a multinomial error component logit model to analyse firm failure, a major advance on the modelling techniques used in previous research. The error component logit model, being an extension of the more familiar mixed logit model, relaxes several questionable statistical assumptions associated with standard models. Using a sample of Australian firms we provide an interpretative illustration of the error component logit model and contrast its behavioural performance with the standard logit model widely used in previous research.     

AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF CHILD CARE DEMAND IN SWITZERLAND

ABSTRACT ** :  This paper analyzes the demand of Swiss families for child care facilities. A choice experiment is used to study the effects of the facilities' characteristics as well as socio-economic factors on the selected child care mode. The experimental data are analyzed using a discrete choice model with multinomial logit specification. The results suggest that the demand for extra-familial day care could be considerably higher than that observed from the actual choices constrained by insufficient provision of affordable day care. The price, access, and the quality of service as well as parents' income and education have important impacts on the choice of the mode of care.     

Occupational choices of working children in Bangladesh

The article looks into the determinants of occupational choices of working children in Bangladesh. Using data from 6668 Bangladeshi working children aged 5 through 14, the article estimates several binary and multinomial logit regressions, separately for boys and girls. The article confirms that most children work in the informal sector where formal sector’s jurisdiction and regulations are absent. Specifically, the article finds that children are least likely to work in the service occupation and are more likely to work in the textile sector. The findings highlight the diversity in the occupational distribution of child workers by gender and show how their individual and family characteristics influence occupational choices. The service sector, which comprises of mostly maids, is a hidden sector. This sector makes children vulnerable to abuse. Thus, it is suggested that policy makers need to come up with effective legislations that would protect the children who work in the ‘hidden informal’ sector.     

A New Approach to Random Utility Modeling using the Dirichlet Multinomial Distribution

In this paper we introduce a new econometricapproach to analyzing recreational site choicedata, the Dirichlet multinomial model. Thismodel, which nests the standard conditionalmultinomial logit model, can accommodateover-dispersed data and may provide moreefficient estimators of coefficients andconsequent welfare measures than the standardconditional logit model, which is so widelyused in the Random Utility Model approach torecreation demand. We illustrate thisDirichlet approach using a data set of rockclimbers in Scotland, and study the impacts onper-trip consumers surplus of alternativemanagement strategies for popular rock climbingsites. Results show that the Dirichletmultinomial approach produces coefficient andwelfare estimates having smaller samplingvariability in this case. We also compareclassical welfare measures with their posteriorequivalents, which allow for welfare changes tobe dis-aggregated.     

Liberalization,Regulatory Delays and Vulnerability to Systemic Banking Crisis

This work aims at contributing to the improvement of the early warning systems of banking crises using a new approach accounting for model uncertainty. We show that a multinomial logit model based on Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is a good strategy to predict banking crisis. To do this, we argue that differences in vulnerability to banking crisis can be largely explained by an asymmetry between financial market evolution and regulation update on a sample of 49 developed and developing countries between 1980 and 2010. When markets are liberalized, competition pushes bankers to take more risks and take advantage of regulatory delays thus increasing crises probabilities. Our empirical evidence supports that crisis probability is higher in country liberalizing their banking system when regulation is not updated. We developed an early warning system for systemic banking crises based on the multinomial logit model. Its main difference to existing prediction models and its contribution to the literature is that it is intended to identify and resolve what is called by Bussiere and Fratzscher [(2006). Towards a new early warning system of financial crises. Journal of International Money and Finance, 25(6), 953–973] as post-crisis bias in binomial models and to develop a new methodology of leading indicators selection based on BMA. Overall, our model predicts all banking crises during our sample period.     

Labor market decisions of married women: With emphasis on part-time employment

Part-time employment may be viewed as a bridge between nonemployment and full-time employment or as an alternative to full-time employment. For married women with young children, part-time employment represents an efficient labor market solution to balancing the responsibilities of career and family. This paper estimates the probability of part-time employment for married women by utilizing a multinomial logit model for data extracted from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics [2000]. The paper focuses on the analysis of qualitative dependent variables to predict the probabilities for three distinct labor market decisions. The sample is further stratified to capture the effects of age on a married woman's labor market decision. A clearer picture of part-time employment should provide important insight into the labor market decisions of married women.     

Learning by Consumers in the Demand for Japanese Cars

This paper provides an empirical analysis of the impact of consumer learning over time on the demand for Japanese cars, using both a multinomial logit demand model and the Berry–Levinsohn–Pakes demand model ( Econometrica , vol. 63, 1995, 841–90). The data suggest that learning about particular models, manufacturers, and Japanese cars as a group had a positive impact on the demand for individual models during the 1970s and 1980s.     

Estimating non-market environmental benefits of the Conversion of Cropland to Forest and Grassland Program: A choice modeling approach

The non-market values of the environmental benefits derived from the Conversion of Cropland to Forest and Grassland Program (also known as the Grain for Green Program and the Sloped Land Conversion Program) in the Loess Plateau region of North West China were estimated using choice modeling both on-site in Xi'an and Ansai and off-site in Beijing. Separate choice models were estimated for the three sites and the results compared. Significant differences were found between the implicit price estimates derived from the multinomial logit (MNL) model and the random parameter logit (RPL) model for some environmental attributes. Based on the results from the RPL models, the average willingness to pay per respondent household in Beijing was CNY882.56 (USD109.44) each year for the environmental improvements on the Loess Plateau provided by the Program, a payment level significantly higher than the comparable estimates of CNY342.56 (USD42.48) in Xi'an and CNY388.08 (USD48.12) in Ansai.     

Cellular telephones in the Israeli market: the demand,the choice of provider and potential revenues

This study presents the methodology, the estimates and a scenario for forecasting the demand for cellular telephones and their use in Israel. The analysis was based on the integration of three sub-models. The estimate of the consumer's decision on whether to purchase a cellular telephone and what type was obtained by using a discrete choice model of the multinomial logit type. The total number of cellular telephone purchases to be made in Israel during the years 1998–2008 was estimated using a logistic growth model employing aggregate data over time. The anticipated demand for airtime was based on findings of a survey carried out on a national sample, and on actual usage data on the various consumers during the years prior to the survey. The research shows the substantial economic potential of Israel's cellular telephone market.     

知情选择对中国避孕行为的影响分析

利用近三十年来的避孕抽样调查数据,考察知情选择的逐步展开对中国已婚育龄人群避孕行为的影响。育龄人群的避孕行为已随知情选择发生较大变化,短效自控型避孕措施选择的可能性在逐步升高,长效医控型避孕措施选择的可能性在逐步降低,避孕模式呈自由选择多元化发展态势。知情选择强化了个体因素在避孕措施选择中的决定作用,为育龄个体提供了更为自由的避孕选择空间。避孕行为受子女性别影响的社会事实长期存在,知情选择在一定程度上增加了性别偏好对避孕措施选择的影响。     

Alternative specification tests for Tobit and related models

Recently Small and Hsiao (1985) proposed a specification test for the multinomial logit model as an alternative for the Hausman specification test. We show that Small and Hsiao's test procedure can also be applied to Tobit and related models.     

TESTING THE SEQUENTIAL LOGIT MODEL AGAINST THE NESTED LOGIT MODEL*

In this paper, we show that the sequential logit (SL) model, in which a choice process is characterized as a sequence of independent multinomial logit models, is a limiting case of the nested logit (NL) model. For testing the SL model against the NL model, we propose Wald, likelihood ratio and Lagrange multiplier tests after suitably reparameterizing the NL model. It is found that when the NL model parameters are “weakly identified”, the Wald test severely underrejects the true model, whereas the sizes of the LR and LM tests are not significantly affected.     

Sequential and multinomial logit: A nested model

A nested model is presented which has both the sequential and the multinomial logit model as special cases. This model provides a simple test to investigate the validity of these specifications. Some theoretical properties of the model are discussed. During the analysis a distribution function is derived, which, to the best of our knowledge, has not been used before. This distribution is shown to be a generalization of the typeI extreme-value distribution. Monte Carlo experiments and empirical applications of the model are presented.     

An Empirical Examination of Entry Patterns in Local Telephone Markets*

In this analysis we examine the market entry patterns of new local telephone companies. We construct and estimate a multinomial logit model using information describing numbering code distribution within local telephone markets and the associated income, density, and regulatory characteristics of these markets. Our findings support the conventional wisdom that facilities-based entry by new local competitors is more likely to occur in large urban telephone markets. In addition, we present evidence that, with the exception of territories served by Ameritech, entry is more likely to occur in Bell Operating Company service territories.