年终盘点：谁在参演2010中国经济大戏

2010年已经过去,回看这一年的经济表现,正如年初温家宝总理所说的＂今年是中国经济最复杂的一年＂：全球经济复苏与否扑朔迷离,该退出还是继续刺激争论不休,美欧需求增长缓慢,失业率依旧居高不下,进而传递到政治层面,增加了国与国协调的难度;中国经济仍未走出困局,外需萎缩、内需不振困扰实体经济,财政收支失衡,     

金融自由化、经济转轨与农民相对贫困的恶化

金融自由化通过如下机制影响农民相对收入水平:经济增长、金融服务、金融发展和金融危机。转轨经济的特殊性使上述4个渠道都使农民相对收入增长受到不利影响。经济增长的再分配效应是不确定的。在转轨过程中,国有经济和国有银行从农村地区大规模撤退,减少了农民的金融机会和金融服务。在金融发展过程中,农民分享经济增长和金融发展外部性的难度提高。金融危机的再分配效应更是不利于农民。综合效应是,伴随金融自由化的推进,农民金融机会集合变窄,城乡收入差距快速扩大。     

金融控制、风险化解与经济增长

不同于传统的金融抑制 (自由化 )、金融约束理论所描述的发展路径 ,90年代的中国在处理金融改革、风险化解与经济增长关系上 ,对金融改革采用了既发展又控制的政策。金融控制为改革提供了所需要的资本 ,同时 ,让居民个人参与政府主导下的资本市场交易来使风险社会化。金融控制和风险化解之间的不同组合可以理解为某一阶段经济改革、发展与稳定关系处理上的动态性。金融控制和风险化解的动态组合决定了中国资本市场特定的结构、交易与绩效。中国转轨时期的金融控制缓和了国有银行和国有企业的资金关系 ,并可能减少银行预期不良资产比例 ,在让国有银行继续成为大中型国有企业主要债权人的同时 ,争取到了体制内部 (特别是国有商业银行 )化解风险的时间。     

浅谈金融经济风险及防范措施

近些年来,随着我国改革的不断深化,国内外金融局势复杂多变,保证我国金融经济的稳定,在我国社会转型时期具有重要的意义.我国金融机构需要了解当前金融环境中存在的风险,树立金融风险防范意识,制定相应的金融风险防范措施,从而保障金融机构的稳定运行.     

发展中的风险 防范经济金融

过去的一年，我国金融形势向好的方向发展，金融部门认真贯彻中央的金融工作方针和部署，继续实行稳健货币政策，有力地支持了产业结构的调整和国有企业的脱困和改革，发放了巨额消费贷款，支撑了消费需求的增长，缓解风险有所化解，整个金融市场保持了平衡运行的态势，本外币存贷款稳定增长，证券市场的直接科威特得了空间超主速的发展，保险业的发展也取得了高速增长，人民币币值和汇率保持了稳定，使城乡广大居民得到了币值稳定的实惠。     

现代美国投资银行金融创新的风险控制

美国作为世界投资银行业最发达的国家,拥有着众多世界知名、实力雄厚的大投资银行,如美林公司（ＭｅｒｉｌＬｙｎｃｈ）、摩根斯坦利公司（ＭｏｒｇａｎＳｔａｎｌｅｙ）、所罗门兄弟公司（ＳｏｌｏｍｏｎＢｒｏｔｈｅｒ）、高盛公司（ＧｏｌｄｍａｎＳａｃｈｓ）和莱曼...     

宏观调控与美国经济增长--评克林顿政府的经济政策

正确的宏观调控政策是经济增长的保证。克林顿政府宏观经济政策的成功运用为其经济发展创造了良好的运行环境。 2 0世纪 90年代美国实现了持续 10年的高经济增长。本文评述了克林顿政府的宏观调控政策 ,并提出了对我国选择宏观经济政策的启示。     

物资综合盘点法的优势

物资管理是企业生产经营中的重要环节,如对仓库管理及盘点不重视,即使每年有盈余,也容易形成了呆料和废料,过多过少的物料而空间不够,致使生产状况不顺畅。如在仓库爆满、资金紧张时对仓库整理及盘点,往往无法做到目视管理,账、账物一致。针对此缺失,降低成本,消灭呆滞料,以创造企业的最大利益及做到目视管理为课题,提出效益化、快捷化的解决方法。     

粗放型经济与相对过剩

我国现阶段出现的相对过剩是由粗放型经济增长引发的低水平过剩，这种过剩更多是一种无效供给，它导致了消费需求之间难以有效地衔接，影响了消费需求结构的变化方向，违 了消费需求结构的变化规律。     

营造金融政策优势支持县域经济发展

营造金融政策优势支持县域经济发展□华强杜彦君积极研究、制定和实行有效的金融政策，大力支持县域经济发展，是实现国家经济发展战略的重要基础和途径，笔者就这一问题谈些浅见。一、制约县域经济发展的不利因素与政策壁垒一是现行信贷政策壁垒。目前，国家对国有商业银...     

我国农村民间金融对经济发展的影响与对策分析

我国农村民间金融问题,近来已引起人们越来越多的关注和讨论.本文首先从正反两方面对农村民间金融对经济发展的影响进行了分析,并阐述了农村民间金融存在与发展的必要性,在最后提出了相应的结论与建议.     

An analysis of the demand for skill in a growing economy

We construct a trade theoretic model of skill formation with skill as a produced intermediate input. Capital is required for production as well as for education which transforms unskilled labor into skilled. We use this model to reflect analytically on India's rising requirement of skilled manpower. We show that even if growth of capital and supply of skilled manpower match, relative stagnation of unskilled manufacturing sector will magnify the gap between growth in demand and supply of skill. This may happen, for example, if there is a vast pool of workforce who may not have even the basic education to qualify as “unskilled” and excessive capital flows into the skilled sector. Thus a country with lack of education at a very basic level will be forced to import skilled manpower from the rest of the world.     

Epistemological foundations for the assessment of risks in banking and finance

This article presents the epistemological and conceptual foundations on which current attempts to model crises and assess financial risks are based. It draws a distinction between two research programs, in Lakatos' sense: on the one hand, crises understood as structural events within a cycle; on the other hand, crises seen as statistical tail events. The methodological, theoretical and practical consequences of such a dichotomy are exposed. A crucial difference lies in the assumptions about change in the causal processes generating economic outcomes, especially asset returns. Furthermore, this article insists on providing conceptual definitions of key terms that have distinct meanings within the two research programs.     

Dynamic effects of government expenditure in a finance constrained economy

This paper introduces constant government expenditure in Woodford's finance constrained model (J. Econ. Theory, 1986) with capital-labor substitution as presented in Grandmont, Pintus and de Vilder (J. Econ. Theory, 1998) and investigates how government expenditure influences local dynamics near multiple steady states, depending upon the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor in production.     

解析中国菜篮子经济

菜篮子经济的提出，是富有中国特色的农副产品市场体系的战略选择，是菜篮子工程计划的延伸和发展，它的经济内涵和政策内容尚处于初期探索阶段。菜篮子经济提出的背景菜篮子经济是在“菜篮子工程”计划目标基本实现的基础上，为适应社会经济形势的变化和可持续发展的要求，是对建设有竞争力的农副产品市场体系的延伸和发展。20世纪80年代中期，我国城镇居民食品消费水平大幅提高，消费重心由主食转向副食，农副产品需求数量快速增加；而供给水平受农业产业结构调整缓慢的影响，滞后于需求的增长。农副产品供需矛盾日益突出。在此背景下，19…     

中国对外贸易条件:1995-2005年状况分析

贸易条件(Terms of Trade)是反映一国或某一行业在国际市场中的竞争实力或竞争地位的指标,被定义为出口价格与进口价格之比.贸易条件的经济学含义是每单位出口商品能够换回的进口商品的数量,如果在一定时期出口一单位商品所能换回的进口商品比基期有所增加,则该国贸易条件改善,反之则恶化.因此,贸易条件也是衡量一国一定时期内出口盈利能力(相对于进口)的重要指标.本文通过分析1995-2005年间中国对外贸易条件的变化趋势,总结规律、阐述原因,并提出政策建议.     

Factors substitutability,heterogeneity and endogenous fluctuations in a finance constrained economy

Summary.   This paper examines the local properties of perfect foresight equilibrium of a finance constrained economy featuring two classes of infinitely-lived agents with heterogeneous general preferences. It is primarily concerned with the conceivability of endogenous fluctuations for large plausible capital-labor elasticities of substitution. It is notably shown that heterogeneity in preferences allows Hopf cycles to be entirely consistent with a wide range of elasticities of substitution including the unitary one (Cobb-Douglas specifications). Received: April 23, 1999; revised version: January 24, 2000     

Deterministic randomness in a model of finance and growth

Following the literature on growth, cycles and financial development, this paper develops an economic growth model in which the source of endogenous business cycles relates to the allocation of credit between productive investment and consumption. An important role is given to consumer sentiment, because this determines the demand of households for credit; in particular, optimistic beliefs about the economy’s macro performance divert financial resources from investment in favor of consumption. The dynamic analysis indicates that Neimark–Sacker and flip bifurcations eventually separate stable and unstable manifolds and, as a result, a region of nonlinear motion is generated: cycles of various periodicities and chaotic motion characterize the behavior of the long run time paths of accumulated wealth, output and consumption.     

Money and growth in a cash-in-advance economy with costly credit

This paper develops a stochastic growth model with a cash-in-advance constraint, costly credit, and intermediary services. We study how the behavior of financial intermediaries affects the relationship between economic growth and the monetary system. We show that the payment that intermediaries charge for providing financial services influences the money–growth relationship. When the intermediation cost increases proportionally with credit purchases, we do not observe any influence of growth on the monetary system. When the intermediation cost is not proportional to credit purchases, growth is responsible for a transformation of the monetary system, i.e. money is relatively driven out of the economy as the economy grows.