相关多样化、无关多样化与地区经济发展——基于中国282个地级市面板数据的实证研究

经济全球化背景下,面对经济快速增长的内在要求和急剧变化的外部市场环境,如何调整产业结构以实现经济持续稳定发展是各地区面临的重要问题。本文以产业多样化影响地区经济发展的理论机制为基础,利用熵指标法将产业多样化分解为相关和无关两部分,以中国2003—2009年地级市面板数据为样本,从经济增长和经济稳定两个维度检验了相关与无关多样化对地区经济发展的影响,发现相关多样化对地区经济增长与经济稳定都存在显著的促进作用,无关多样化不利于经济增长但有助于提高经济稳定性。为进一步考察不同宏观经济形势下多样化在经济稳定功能方面的差异,以全球经济危机为分界点进行了分阶段回归,结果显示:当外部市场状况良好时,相关多样化的稳定效应较为明显,当遭遇外部经济冲击时,相关多样化的稳定作用被削弱甚至逆转,而无关多样化则始终发挥着经济稳定器的功能。     

How much does the business group matter in Korea?

We partition the variances of profits of the companies associated with Korean business groups into business group‐specific effects, industry effects, and affiliate company‐specific effects, which roughly match corporate‐parent effects, industry effects and business unit effects, respectively, in the extant literature. We find substantial corporate‐parent effects (here, business group effects) along with industry effects and business unit effects (here, affiliate company‐specific effects). This finding may indicate that business groups play an important role in developing countries by circumventing market inefficiencies. Our results also suggest that these effects tend to be smaller in large business groups and to decrease over time. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

中国30年经济增长与就业：构建灵活安全的劳动力市场

运用宏观统计数据,本文首先回答了中国经济增长是否创造就业的问题.通过分阶段分析经济增长对就业的拉动效应.文章认为中国经济增长是一种创造了大量就业的增长;本文第二部分分析劳动供求关系的最新变化及其演变趋势.认为劳动供求关系正在发生根本性转变。但中国尚没有步入劳动力短缺时代.在今后20年左右的时间内仍然拥有充足的劳动供给;本文第三部分讨论了当前劳动力市场所面临的主要问题,认为结构性矛盾突出、就业非正规化严重、初次收入分配扭曲等问题突出:第四部分为结论,提出构建安全灵活劳动力市场的概念和设想。     

Diversification, Concentration and Economic Performance: Korean Business Groups

The purpose of this paper is to analyze empirically some of therelationships involving corporate diversification, concentration and economic performance for agroup of 25 of the largest Korean chaebols or business groups over the period 1985–1995. UsingHerfindahl–Hirschman indices of inter-industry diversification and intra-group member firm concentration,our results indicate that increased conglomerate diversification does not affect chaebol profitswhereas changes in internal member firm concentration do. Of particular interest with respect to bothdiversification and concentration are our findings that a quadratic relationship exists between groupprofits and the number of member firms, with both smaller and larger chaebols having higher profitsthan intermediate size chaebols. A similar relationship also exists with respect to group size measuredin terms of total assets. Since the number of member firms is included as an explanatory variable, ourresults imply that profitable chaebols expand primarily within their existing industries ratherthan by adding firms in new markets.     

Diversification and Economic Performance: An Empirical Assessment of Chinese Firms

Integrating the impact of both resource and institutional factors and taking into consideration potential agency problems, this study proposes to investigate the joint effect of both related and unrelated diversification strategies on firm performance in an emerging economy setting and to assess empirically the hypothesized relationship using Chinese firms. The empirical results support the basic contention that both resource building and utilization through concentration and related diversification and institutional environmental management through unrelated diversification are important for firm performance in emerging economies but they must be considered together. This paper concludes with a discussion of its contributions, practical implications, and directions for future research.     

从“库存变化”看“后危机”时期宏观经济走势

库存变化反映了市场需求预期和企业生产状况,也反映了宏观经济景气的变化。2008年下半年以来,世界各国在金融危机的影响下和经济周期的调整中完成了＂去库存化＂。伴随着经济回暖,欧美等贸易伙伴大国均处于不同程度回补库存阶段,其补库存过程对稳定我国出口市场、经济恢复产生不同程度的影响。目前我国库存随着经济稳步回升、需求回暖处于存货周期的小扩张阶段,这意味需求进一步回暖,宏观经济稳步回升态势进一步显现。     

International Diversification and Performance: Evidence from Singapore

This study focuses on how international diversification affects a firm in terms of multiple performance measures (accounting-based, market-based, and intangible value creation). The study is unique as it uses segment data made available only recently, which enables the examination of both product and international diversification with performance. The period studied coincided with Singapore firms performance during the Asian Financial Crisis. In contrast to previous studies on Singapore, our results show that product diversification is negatively correlated to all measures of performance, while international market diversification is positively correlated. We attribute the difference to the time period which covers both upswings and downturns of the economy, unlike previous studies which considered only the former. Other control measures were incorporated; firm size is highly significant in explaining all measures of performance but not so for firm age, leverage, risk and industry. For top managers, we suggest that regardless of economic climate, the dominant diversification strategy is to take a focused approach to product diversification, but a broad approach to international diversification.Dr. Er and Dr. Kwok are assistant professors in the Department of Finance & Accounting, National University of Singapore (NUS). Mr Lin recently graduated with a B.B.A. honours (1st class) degree from NUS.     

区域金融结构与经济增长——基于我国省际面板数据的实证分析

本文选取全国31个省份2000~2009年的面板数据,运用固定效用模型,检验我国区域金融结构对经济增长的作用。实证结果表明:就全国总样本来看,股市的发展对我国经济增长的促进作用较为明显,另外,金融效率也能显著促进我国经济增长,但是金融机构的信贷规模与经济增长负相关。就东、中、西部分样本来看,由于我国地区之间发展差距较为明显,检验结果不尽相同,但是都支持金融效率与经济增长正相关,金融机构信贷规模与经济增长负相关。     

新疆金融与经济发展关系的研究

通过对新疆1990年一2009年金融发展与经济增长的实证研究,发现新疆地区金融发展与经济增长密切相关,新疆银行业金融机构全力助推新疆跨越式发展。     

金融危机下我国经济周期波动态势与经济政策取向

本文基于马尔科夫区制转移模型识别和分析我国经济周期波动特征以及经济周期阶段性变迁的可能性,并对未来3年内我国经济增长的运行趋势变化以及经济周期所处状态进行判断和预测。研究发现,在步入2008年以后我国经济一直处于低速增长阶段,并在未来3年中仍将处于这一阶段,这说明金融危机的影响具有一定的持续性,但是随着时间的推移,我国经济处于低速增长阶段的可能性逐渐减小,而处于适速增长阶段或快速增长阶段的可能性不断加大。虽然我国经济增长可能会在2009年第3季度达到经济周期的低谷,但在未来3年中总体将呈现出逐渐回暖的态势。     

生产性服务业集聚与经济增长的空间计量分析

本文选取2003～2012年我国31个省、自治区、直辖市数据,运用空间面板固定效应模型,实证检验了我国生产性服务业集聚与经济增长之间的关系。结果表明：我国地区经济增长呈现明显的空间集聚特征;生产性服务业专业化集聚和多样化集聚对经济增长均具有显著的正向影响,但多样化集聚对经济增长的作用更为突出。因此,各地区应注重加强与相邻地区间的交流与合作,形成经济互助,以促进经济协调发展。同时应该提高我国生产性服务业的集聚程度,尤其是提高生产性服务业的多个产业间的共同集聚,充分发挥其对地区经济增长的正向促进作用。     

区域高校经费投入与经济发展关系的实证分析

利用1998—2006年中国各地区数据,得用面板数据模型对区域高校经费投入与经济发展的关系进行了实证分析,结果表明高校经费投入与经济发展正相关,且经济越落后,教育负担越重。     

金融集聚、国内市场一体化与经济增长

本文构建了金融集聚、市场一体化与区域经济增长的分析框架,利用1995～2010年省际面板数,采用广义最小二乘法（FGLS ）,对金融集聚、市场一体化与区域经济增长进行了实证分析。结果表明,市场一体化对区域经济增长并不具有显著的正效应。然而,在金融集聚不断深化的制度条件下,市场一体化对经济增长的驱动作用得以显现,金融集聚程度越高的地方,能从市场一体化获得更多的收益。市场一体化程度高的地方,金融集聚对经济增长的推动作用也越明显,二者在推动经济增长过程中的协同效应已显现。值得注意的是,金融集聚对区域经济增长的促进作用主要体现在银行业的集聚。本文的研究结果对市场一体化改革和金融集聚政策制定具有借鉴意义。